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March 22, 2016

Comments

Paul

@Lullz

>> "I wrote very clear in my post why iPhone 5SE is a downgrade"

> I have no idea why you keep insisting it's a downgrade.

I keep insisting that it is a downgrade because iPhone 5SE is a downgrade because of:
- much smaller screen than any current iPhone sold by Apple (and most phone users will come from a phone with bigger screen to a 4" screen in this case),
- missing features like 3D touch,
- cheapest iPhone one can buy from Apple as of today,
- etc.

Also, I am not the only one who sees that iPhone 5SE is a downgrade. Here are some people who think the same:
http://www.phonedog.com/2016/03/10/will-you-downgrade-get-apples-4-inch-iphone

> That doesn't matter.

Haha... that is a very funny joke!

> The users buying bigger screen phones will keep buying bigger
> screen phones and those who want to have a great 4" phone may
> buy iPhone SE. That's what's happening. This also makes it
> possible for Apple to gain market share in 2016.

I totally agree with you that it is very likely that Apple will gain market share in 2016 and one reason (among many other reasons) is due to iPhone 5SE. Anyway, most likely the iPhone 5SE will sell much better in non-Asian markets (US market?).


> Obviously iPhone SE is a great product for those looking for a nice 4" phone.

I think that people looking for 4" iPhone would be mostly in non-Asian markets though. In Asian markets for some reason they really like huge screens for phones.

abdul muis

@Lulz

"Currently the effect is probably limited to forcing the Android manufacturers to offer better 4" products."

I doubt this will happens. Creating a product with no real demand is fool errand.

In iOS, Apple decision to create the 4" is not to accommodate the need of user who seeks for great 4" device, but to gain market share without ruining it's flagship/premium market.

"I have no idea why you keep insisting it's a downgrade"

To be honest, he already said he's reason!! Let me put it in a different words.

1. It is a downgrade because with the specs & Bill Of Material (BOM) that almost the same as the iPhone 6S/6S+, Apple priced the the device way lower than it should be. Which means, Apple gain lower ASP for it.
2. It is a downgrade because IF apple made the iPhone SE with iPhone 6 price, most people will choose the bigger screen. Thus, small screen is a disadvantage/downgrade.

"The users buying bigger screen phones will keep buying bigger screen phones"

Agree with you.

"and those who want to have a great 4" phone may buy iPhone SE. That's what's happening. This also makes it possible for Apple to gain market share in 2016. Obviously iPhone SE is a great product for those looking for a nice 4" phone."

Agree... MAY BUY iPhone SE.... MAYBE!!!
It's a great move for Apple. If apple manage to get 10% or perhaps 20% more from this segment, it's a good way for them to increase their marketshare.

The real question is... IS THERE ANY REAL MARKET for 4" DEVICE? What happened if this move doesn't increase the market share, but only slowing the decrease of iPhone 5S (4") sales, will this hurt apple more than helping it?

abdul muis

@Paul

"I think that people looking for 4" iPhone would be mostly in non-Asian markets though. In Asian markets for some reason they really like huge screens for phones."

For the low-end to mid market:
If your salary is very minimum, and you're only gonna get 1 device. Perhaps a computer or maybe a tablet or a smartphone. You're gonna try to buy the biggest screen you can afford that can be put on your pants... That's a 5.5"-6.0" phone.

That's why in Asia, big screen is everywhere from cheap to expensive phone.

neil

@paul
>> I have no idea why you keep insisting it's a downgrade.
>I keep insisting that it is a downgrade because iPhone 5SE is a downgrade because of:
>- much smaller screen than any current iPhone sold by Apple

Incorrect, Apple sold 30 million 4" iPhone 5s models last year. You're not paying attention paul.

The iPhone SE also has 30% longer battery life (I think most people would prefer 30% more battery over Force Touch) than the iPhone 6s and for those who want a smaller screen because a bigger screen is too big and heavy for their pockets it is an upgrade over an iPhone 6s. Stop this silly nonsense about it being a downgrade.

Also, stop ignoring the Kantar and Flurry reports:

Kantar reports that only 21% of all US smartphone sales in Q1 2015 were phablets and Apple iPhone 6 Plus took 44% of this segment. Flurry reports that only 27% of phones globally were phablets in Q4 2015.

@abdul
>"I doubt this will happens. Creating a product with no real demand is fool errand."

And yet 30M people last year bought an iPhone 5s despite the much lower specs and twice as many people bought the small screen iPhone 6s than the large screen 6+. Sounds like a winning play to address this market with a cheaper yet far more powerful device.

Looks like there is a demand for smaller phones after all.

abdul muis

@neil

"Incorrect, Apple sold 30 million 4" iPhone 5s models last year. You're not paying attention paul."

30 million iPhone 5S out of 230 million iPhone is about 13%. Which is almost nothing. Not to mention with SMALLER ASP.

"Stop this silly nonsense about it being a downgrade."

So, if I have iPhone 6S+, and want to buy this SE, I should say that this $400 iPhone SE is an upgrade? Why do you have a problem with it? This SE is surely a grade bellow the iPhone 6 in Apple mind. Thus the price were cheaper than iPhone 6.

"Also, stop ignoring the Kantar and Flurry reports"

As you said in your earlier post on how Kantar & Flurry categorize the phone size & it's only US only. So, it's a bad statistic number to be use. Beside, you have a better stats from Apple. Less than 15% of their sales were the small/cheap iPhone.

"And yet 30M people last year bought an iPhone 5s despite the much lower specs and twice as many people bought the small screen iPhone 6s than the large screen 6+. Sounds like a winning play to address this market with a cheaper yet far more powerful device.

Looks like there is a demand for smaller phones after all."

That's because for the poor iSheep to own the iHollyGrail, the 4" iPhone 5S is the cheapest one. So we can't really know if this demand is real or just a iSheep mentality playing tricks.

Nevertheless, in the east, where there's many competing product available and Apple Mind Bending Ads doesn't work. The small screen lost to big screen by a very wide margin. That's why, from the beginning, many believe that this small iPhone will only sell well in the USA, but will fall badly in Asia. I don't know about Africa, Middle East and Europe, so I can't say about it.

abdul muis

@neil

"twice as many people bought the small screen iPhone 6s than the large screen 6+"

While the iPhone with 4.7" is smaller than the iPhone with 5.5". It's MUCH MORE usable than the tiny 4". The 4" is just too small for 2016.

Paul

@Neil

You do not answer the question regarding your connections with Apple. Anything to hide Neil?

Tomi T Ahonen

Neil

You know the rules here. Don't bring that irrelevant crap into the discussion. We keep to the tech and the market share. I acknowledge that Apple is most profitable company in history, don't make that a point in the comments or they are always gone. This is not a wall street investor gambling site. This is a reasonable tech site talking about future tech such as digital mobile social etc. We don't care how big Apple's profits are. We acknowledge that its a profitable company because that is what is necessary for long term sustainability, the size of profits is irrelevant - except to investors.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Now to all in the thread

What is the bizarre argument you guys have here? Clearly for MOST buyers, bigger is better and screen size trumps (sorry) any other tech feature. Screen size rules. It was the reasoning for the long-delayed move up in screen size from early iPhones at 3.5 inches finally to 4 inches 6 years ago and then again, very reluctantly to phablet screen sizes finally two years ago. Screen size rules.

But its not every customer who wants a large screen. Some users PREFER a smaller phone - just like some car buyers PREFER a small car, not that it happens to be cheaper usually than a larger car. And then after the PREFERENCE is the market opportunity. Some cannot AFFORD the larger screen phone and will opt for the smaller one. This means, just like in cars, usually the larger phone by the same brand (with large screen) costs more than the smaller phone (with small screen). Not always, but mostly. And specifically its true with the iPhone.

This phone screen will NOT satisfy most who have bought a phablet 6 series iPhone. Some who don't LIKE the large screen will go back to the 5SE. Most who have a 6 series iPhone would not CONSIDER the 5SE as a practical replacement phone next. They will wait for the iPhone 7.

Many who WANT an iPhone but cannot afford the iPhone 6 series, will now become within the reach of pricing for the 5SE. They are ENTRY LEVEL customers, first time Apple buyers. They will become indoctrinated to the cult and they will mostly then in the coming 2 or 3 upgrade cycles (next 3-5 years) upgrade to a phablet-sized iPhone anyway. We've seen it as a totally consistent pattern globally for 15 years, smartphone users UPGRADE when they buy their next smartphone. Was true before the iPhone and after the iPhone. Was true of non-Apple smartphones and of iPhones. Will happen to SOME of these iPhone 5SE buyers, probably to more than half of those who are first-time Apple buyers of 5SE, that within the next 5 years, they have moved up from the entry-level iPhone to a mid-price or top-price iPhone.

Then there are those who PREFER smaller phones for whatever reasons (even if their fingers are small like with Donald Trump's hands). Some can't fit a phablet into their pockets or whatever reason. For those the 5SE is the latest nicest greatest 4 inch iPhone and they will love it and now ditch the old 5S or 5C they have been using. This segment of Apple owners is less than half but its a large part of Apple's total iPhone user base and Apple would be foolish to ignore it and force them off the iOS family by not offering them a modern phone with Apple Pay, a 12mp camera etc. This phone is LATE for that segment in fact.

But guys. There is no argument about screen size. It is the single most desired aspect of a modern smartphone, phablets rule - everywhere on the planet. But the iPhone 6 series is too expensive to be able to grow Apple. If they want growth and all the growth in smartphones is at the low end of pricing, then even Apple has to come down with prices and the 5SE is a logical sensible way to get there. It will be particularly popular in Emerging World markets, even as they PREFER larger screens but they also wants Apple. Its a good compromise for a customer who wants an iPhone but can't honestly afford a 6S.

PS - I also use the term iSheep but I do use it selectively for those who are clearly brainwashed members of the cult - aka West Coast tech writers for example..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Paul

@Neil

>Paul, is Samsung paying you in any way for praising Android products here? ;-)

I have no direct (not even indirect) connection with Samsung or any other phone manufacturer (that is, I do not receive any kind of benefits from them). Also I have no connection with Google (or with Android).

neil

@Tomi,
Mark asked the question about whether someone would buy Apple. That was the only reason for my one sentence on Apple's worth and growth.

I don't touch the stock market with a barge pole myself as I feel it's too close to gambling for my liking.

neil

@paul,
no connection with Apple or any smartphone manufacturer or the industry. Just an interested observer myself.

abdul muis

@Tomi

From my observation, those who keep usin the small phone, is not a kind of person who will check their SMS/WA/Email 125x/day. And when they do use their phone, they use it primarily for phone calls.

I fully agree with you that Apple should NOT abandon this user/market segment. But I was wondering if this market segment were keen to upgrade their phone if it's still working as they want.... Or, in other words, will this bring many upgraders to iPhone.

Second, Do you really think for first time buyer that 4" iPhone can get a new user? At this current moment, I believe most kids already use any size phone their parents or friends have, and I don't know if kids would prefer 4" compared to other brand bigger size phone.

While I think this 4" SE is a good move by Apple, I think Apple need to add 1 more additional phone in their lineup between 4.7" and 5.5". Perhaps a 5.1".

neil

@abdul
>"30 million iPhone 5S out of 230 million iPhone is about 13%. Which is almost nothing."

That's more than many Android OEMs sell in an entire year. It wouldn't be surprising if Apple managed to sell 60M of the iPhone SE in 2016 considering its flagship specs and significantly lower price - that's more than the total number of iPhones Apple sells in some quarters. It all adds up.

>"As you said in your earlier post on how Kantar & Flurry categorize the phone size & it's only US only."

Flurry's figures are worldwide and both they and Kantar highlight the fact that beyond a certain point phones can get too big for most people. 5.5" phablets are too big for most people, while medium size phones in the 3.5" - 5" range appear to be the sweet spot.

>"While the iPhone with 4.7" is smaller than the iPhone with 5.5". It's MUCH MORE usable than the tiny 4"

The point is that Bigger does not always mean better for everyone. People have a limit as to when a device is too big to carry around. I do agree that most people will choose bigger screens (I'm certainly a 5.5" phablet man myself), but as Tomi says, there is a wide spectrum. Apple is very sensible to cater to such a wider audience and a lower price point that won't cannibalise its pricier models.

mark

@lulz

everything you mention in your reply to my post was marketing speak. In essence, you are shilling. If you look at reactions to these new apple products, people are not impressed. Inferior products hurt the brand. I cited some specific videos. I can drum up more if you need more.
No one would have thought Fender guitars would go out of business in 1985 and be sold to a group of ex-employees. But inferior products hurt the brand as they fought to compete with Japanese and Korean knock offs. Eventually the knocks offs became a better brand.
If you think apple cant go out because they have billions in their war chest, then you are on the wrong site. Try corporateshill.com

Catriona

The reason why Apple didn't do this years ago is that they didn't need to do this years ago. They waited until the market matured. A $399 iPhone in 2011 wouldn't have prevented the rise of Android or even Samsung's brief moment in the spotlight. It would just have reduced the profitability of the iPhone line. Now that the market has matured, that's likely to happen anyway, so Apple is looking to expand volume in new markets, but still at what is a premium pricing point for those new markets.

neil

@mark,
>"you are shilling"

Yes, yes, everyone who disagrees with you and gives evidence why is a shill. Sure.

>"everything you mention in your reply to my post was marketing speak."

So a list of technologies that Apple either invented or implemented first is "marketing speak"? Ok. So how about you write a list of the technologies that Samsung or HTC or LG invented or implemented in phones first then to justify why they are "technology companies" and compare that against Apple's list?

Samsung's marketing and promotions budget is 12x larger than Apple's - if anyone is going to be accused of being a 'marketing company", it'd have to be Samsung by that measure.

>"But inferior products hurt the brand as they fought to compete with Japanese and Korean knock offs. Eventually the knocks offs became a better brand. "

Apple has had Jaoanese and Korean knock offs competing with them for half a decade and yet Apple just sells more devices and grows its iOS ecosystem that much larger every year. There's plenty of room for everyone.

>"No one would have thought Fender guitars would go out of business in 1985 and be sold to a group of ex-employees."

Fender was never the top company in the world with three quarters of a Billion active users, an installed base of 1 Billion active devices growing at 25% per year and all that financial strength stuff that people on this forum evidently don't want to hear ;-) etc. Companies and ecosystems that size never go away overnight even if they do everything wrong. Just look at Microsoft's PC market dominance - 35 years and MS is still in the top 3 companies worldwide even though they've dropped the ball far too many times to count in recent years.

Apple will be fine for a very long time to come even if they never grew their sales or installed base larger than the current 1 Billion mark.

f4eru

>> For children I'd rather buy a cheap phone with plastic casing, not something that costs $400 and may break or bend if it falls to the floor

For children, it's best to buy no phone at all.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Neil:

All the profits and cash piles in the world will not save you if people turn away from your products.

Right now Apple had a honey moon with it's customers, but already we are seeing signs of Apple cutting corners and start compromising on quality.

That is the problem that Apple is facing - not that customers are not loyal, no.

It's that Apple will not be able to provide what their most loyal customers ask of them, and over time that will lead to a slow exodus.

But, yes, this churn will not start until Apple lose their halo - and that has already begun!

neil

@PWE
>"Right now Apple had a honey moon with it's customers"

A honeymoon that has lasted 9 years (in the case of the iPhone) - that's some honeymoon!

>"but already we are seeing signs of Apple cutting corners and start compromising on quality."

And yet Wristly reports that 97% of Apple watch owners are satisfied with their purchases. Even amongst the 3% who are dissatisfied, 30% still wear their Apple Watch and 41% will consider buying the next one.  
No evidence there of Apple cutting corners and compromising on quality in their latest product line.

Then there is this lovely new cheapest iPhone ever - Can we see any corners cut or quality lacking? Nope, instead of cheaper and slower internal components it has the same high end A9 CPU and MP chip and GPU as the flagship iPhone 6+ and a massive 30% longer battery life. Such much for cutting corners to go cheap.

I really don't know what you're talking about.

>"this churn will not start until Apple lose their halo - and that has already begun!"

Examples please.

The comments to this entry are closed.

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