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March 22, 2016

Comments

Tomi T Ahonen

hi abdul

Great image yes. I made that argument in my big keynote to the Canadian industry in 2005 looking back at 20 years of tech industry and making forecasts for next 20 years. I made the point of essentially that set that guy has in the picture - all of that was in my pocket (2 years prior to the iPhone and most Canadians had no idea that consumer smartphones had cameras that recorded video, and did full internet etc, they thought smartphone = Blackberry or Palm or some business phone).

I showed a slide with me standing, and piling tech as a graphic in front of me, eventually hiding all of me. The cost of that tech in 1985 was so much, it bought a new Cadillac car haha.. Then in 2005 you could have all that capability in your pocket for under 1,000 US dollars... But its the same concept as that picture (and I did it MUCH earlier). Gosh that presentation was 11 years ago... wow how time flies.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

PS abdul

Looking at the image - I also stacked storage media into my image - so videos were stored yes as VHS cassettes (as in the image) but music was in C-Cassette (or LP record) so I stacked piles of VHS cassettes and C-Cassettes to reflect whatever I had calculated how many movies and how many songs you could carry on the memory card on the Nokia N-series smartphone of that time. Same with PC data storage, I also converted data storage into 3.5 inch 'floppy' (but hard, not 5.25 inch soft) diskettes, that I also stacked... Yeah, funny thing. But the big revellation was not just the capability we had in our pockets, but the value two decades earlier - that the tech would cost so much you could by a luxury car with that money

Tomi Ahonen :-)

HowCanAppleFailSoMuch?

Here someone says that Apple Watch is inferior because there is no place for SIM. After generation or two Apple will include "Apple SIM" to Apple Watch. Now there is not yet need nor possibility to do that. Keeping watch on for calls drains too much battery so the hardware has to go further for few generations. iPad Pro already has Apple SIM and SIM card slot, so basically you could have two connectios in next generation. iPhone will have that too. Now Apple is negotiating support for that and when that work is done then they are ready to fully roll it out.

Wayne Borean


@Abdul,

Yes, there are two of us. I'm the better looking one...

Great image. Do you know where the original came from? I want to use it.

Wayne Borean


@Tomi,

When I go 'Futurist', well, I tend to 'Blue Sky' it. As for time frame, two decades sound about right. Think first stage of Singularity or Transhumanism

For now, adding minor features like mobile payments or mobile ID is all that's likely for at least five years.

abdul muis

@Tomi

Perhaps that picture was inspired by your keynote. It would be great if we can see your picture in that presentation. Share it here & twitter, and I hope that your picture will go viral..... and, perhaps do another picture for 20 years from now.

@Wayne

I was seeing the picture a while ago in my G+ stream, and search on Google "20 years latter and all of these" . I don't really know the original.

Paul

@Wayne

>Paul, No, you can't see the combadge, can you?

Indeed there is no such single thing as combadge yet BUT there are several products which could be merged into one product that is combadge (that is something Apple has done with iPhone).

For example, combadge could be a cross between Amazon Echo, Google Now, Android Watch with a SIM card and thus comabadge would even fit the definition of mobile. As Amazon Echo shows there are many cases when the users finds that is ok to interact with a device using **only and only** voice without a screen.

Winter

@Tomi
"So the next big thing? It would need to supplant the mobile phone."

In this sphere, I think it would be holographic in-your-eye displays. Full 3D reality in a projector as big as your watch. Obviously it would have kinnect like gesture interactivity.

Would it be a hit? Obviously. Would it be revolutionary? No.

If we go evolutionary, like Wayne Borean, it is indeed communication that is the human "thing". The only improvement I can think of is direct brain interaction with your device. Not seeing that coming in the next decade/decades.

But if we go culture&economy, then there is only one thing, and one thing only, that comes close to communication. That one thing is transportation. The biggest economic revolutions in the last centuries were the car, the plane, and the shipping container.

The next big thing would be in transportation. A combination of cheap solar panels, high capacity batteries, and electrical cars would be a revolution. You know if you ever have been in a big Chinese city with its smog and electrical bikes.

Hence the consistent rumors of the iCar. ;-)

Winter

The Next Thing?

Apple Car rumours, Apple iCar UK release date and features: Apple's Car is just like Christmas Eve (eh?)
http://www.pcadvisor.co.uk/new-product/apple/apple-car-rumours-what-on-earth-is-icar-2016-christmas-3626110/

Apple might be expanding its electric car facilities
http://uk.businessinsider.com/apple-leases-pepsi-property-sunnyvale-california-project-titan-electric-car-2016-3?r=US&IR=T

The iCar explains a lot. Launching a new, electrical car in a global market costs horrible amounts of money. Even Apple will have to milk iPhone user to the max just to get the required market penetration.

Paul

@Wayne

> the iPhone SE isn't innovation.

I agree.

> It's simply market segmentation.

I agree.

> The A9 chip that powers it is innovative.

I agree.

> The iOS 9.3 OS is innovative.

No, sorry iOS 9.3. is not innovative. Going from A.B to A.C in a OS/software usually is not an innovation. Innovation in software is the algorithm/method for Google AlphaGo winning against human is innovation.

> 3D Touch is innovative (and not included on the iPhone SE).

Xiaomi was the first there and Apple just followed Xiaomi! ;-)

Tester

@Wayne Brady:

"3D Touch is innovative (and not included on the iPhone SE)."


The technology is innovative. But Apple didn't invent it, they just copied it. And here's the problem with Apple: They do not innovate anymore, they just coast along the general developments of the tech industry.

Tester

@Lullz:

"It's sad to see how you have no idea about the industry."

Typical reply for an astroturfer.

cornelius

Two separate news sources indicate that Windows Phone (or rather Lumia?) is on its last legs.
http://www.pcworld.com/article/3049997/windows-phone-os/windows-phones-no-show-at-build-drives-home-microsofts-mobile-neglect.html#tk.rss_all

http://windowsreport.com/lumia-microsoft-social-media/

Enjoy!

Wayne Borean


Define 'Innovation'

Seriously. According to the definition used by the U. S. Patent Office, nothing that Apple, Google, Microsoft, Samsung, [Insert Tech Company Name Here] is innovative. Go read the definition for what is 'patentable' if you don't believe me.

Wayne Borean


CNN says that Consumer Reports rated the Samsung Galaxy S7 as the best smartphone on the market.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/22/technology/samsung-galaxy-s7/index.html?iid=ob_homepage_tech_pool&iid=obnetwork

Paul

@Wayne

Innovation = the act or process of introducing new ideas, devices, or methods (from Webster dictionary)

> Xioami's half backed, not useful, not integrated, not
> supported "3D Touch" appeared weeks before Apple's phone.

I am sorry for you but Xioami was the innovator here with Force Touch because they were the first to put into a smartphone. Apple, like always, is a "follower" and just "followed" Xiaomi. I mean that Xiaomi was first and after that followed Apple. One cannot say that Apple has innovated with 3d touch when Xiaomi did it before them!


As Tomi said, many "Apple's innovations" where done 5 years previously by Nokia. For example, not even today iPhone has wireless charging or NFC (that is the standard NFC which we all know). Guess what? Eventually Apple, will get wireless charging and NFC on iPhone and when that will happen it will be again a lot of market bullshit coming from Apple about their new innovations. That is Apple today. Just a "follower" with a very good marketing machine and very good brand name.


> But Apple is to have copied what they did from Xiomi?

Appled followed Xiaomi!

> Create the screen tech, create the processes to manufacture
> that screen tech at scale, build support for that 3D Touch
> into the OS, create all the API's for the Apple ecosystem to
> use, build support in Apple's first party Apps.....and do
> all of that between the time Xiaomi put out their phone and Apple put out theirs?

Innovation means NEW ideas/device/method and therefore being second one cannot claim that is NEW anymore. Too bad for Apple that was second after Xiaomi.

Huber

@Lullz: "Does this mean Apple innovated 64 bit CPU for smartphones? I think Apple was first with the very important development on smartphones."

Apple did not invent jack shit here: The ARM v8 architecture was invented by ARM, Apple just licensed it.

They were first to market with it, yes (with a phone which had only 1GB of RAM, one should add).

Is it innovation when multiple companies license the same technology, but one is first to market? Or isn't the licenser the innovator here?

Being first to market still can be a competitive advantage, but it's not the same as innovation.

Tester

@Huber:

"Or isn't the licenser the innovator here?"


Normally, yes, but when it comes to making 64-bit CPUs that are backwards compatible to 32-bit software the true innovator here was AMD. Everyone else just copied their idea, and CPU architecture is entirely irrelevant here.

And 64 bit CPUs as such are even older, it's just that most early attemps failed due to lack of a migration path.


Seriously, though, using a 64 bit CPU in a smartphone was neither innovative nor revolutionary, it was just the result of natural hardware evolution and as such an inevitable outcome. And that completely ignores the fact that even today's smartphones don't gain any genuine advantage from being 64 bit, aside from future-proofing the software (which in Apple's case is even less relevant because they are deprecating old APIs at an insane rate.)

All summed up, in this case Apple merely jumped the gun and forced the competition into a pointless numbers game which nobody profited from. Aside from some hopeless hardware geeks nobody really cared.

Tester

@Lullz:

There is no innovation in 64 bit processing. It's old news. Apple just blew it up to ridiculous proportions.

If I have to give something to them it's that their marketing is truly innovative - but not their current products.

The original iPhone was innovative. It was the first phone that actually had a user interface which was geared to the user, not the technology driving the device. The iPad also was.
But everything that came afterward, be it high resolution screens, larger displays or faster CPUs are not innovation - it's just technological evolution. The same stuff that happened in the PC business over the last few decades.


"So, Xiaomi didn't really innovate force touch because they were using a tech someone else innovated. "

That statement is so wrong it makes me laugh. Please check your vocabulary before making statements that are utter nonsense because you don't get the terms right.

"Innovation" means to use an existing INVENTION to achieve a new use case. In clear terms: They did not have to invent touch sensitive screens, they merely had to find a viable use case for them. So yes, putting a touch-sensitive screen into a phone is indeed innovation. Of course that implies that the feature is put to good use. And here's one funny thing: One obvious thing to use this for is to implement an app that uses the phone as a scale. Only problem: Apple doesn't allow this! Making the feature crippled by default.


Back to 64 bit CPUs: Yes, they are faster. Yes, they allow larger values in calculation. No, they are not innovative anymore. They are old news, only ARM was late.

What WAS innovative was AMDs idea to use an existing 32-bit CPU architecture and EXPAND it so that the existing 32 bit code still works on it while at the same time expanding the address and value space for new code. And if you look back into history, it was precisely this idea that made 64 bit succeed in the first place.
ARM merely copied that innovation and all Apple did was to license the specs and implement it in hardware. Sorry, but there's no innovation here. It's just applying more powerful tech to an existing use case without bringing anything to the picture but more power. Which has been par for course in computing for - what? - 40-50 years if I am not mistaken.
Even porting iOS to 64 bit is not innovation. OS's have been ported to 64 bit before, like Windows, Linux, (even OSX) and many other UNIX variants.


Winter

@Lulz
"Just as I thought you have seriously hard time defining innovations. "

It is clear from your responses that you do know where the jargon "Lulz" comes from. You do live up to your name.

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=lulz

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/lulz

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Available for Consulting and Speakerships

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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