Debate Review: CNN (12th?) Debate mid March - Trump wins his first debate and seals his nomination: rivals abdicate

So this was the debate where Trump won his nomination.

Its the CNN debate before the Florida and Ohio votes (when winner-take-all states start next week on 15 March). This was after two heated debates (and the immediate previous one was the one with Trump and Rubio arguing about Trump's penis size). Suddenly we had a peaceful friendly calm issues-oriented POLICY debate. It was more reasonable and adult in its tone than the last Democratic debate! The Republican debate even discussed climate change! Some total change has happened.

Trump was calm and seemed Presidential and had a little bit more detail to some of his answers. As Rubio and Cruz stepped down and didn't engage Trump, even as several questions allowed them to do so, this gives the debate to the front-runner. Its the best opportunity for the challengers to take on the front-runner, and its the biggest threat to that front-runner, if attacked from all sides (like we saw last time). Now, Trump was given a free pass. The pressure comes off from him, he won this debate. So how do I grade it?

Trump B+. It was Donald Trump's best debate. He was answering more, he remained calm and was approaching the level of being Presidential. There was none of the silliness, he even handled the Tianamen Square question and the one about Hitler salutes and violence at his rallies, in ways that sounded 'reasonable' (to the degree necessary in a Republican debate). Most of all, he didn't get any attacks from the moderators nor from his rivals.

Cruz B. It was a 'restrained' Ted Cruz we had today. Several times he was visibly struggling to find the 'right tone' to use in the debate, and always picked the friendly non-confrontational tone. I think this is a big mistake. Cruz was on an upward trajectory as he was continuously hitting Trump. Now he abandoned that. I think Cruz abdicated his challenge to Trump. This was Cruz seriously under-performing compared to what he could do. And sadly, it was one of the last chances to hit Trump, so the lingering effects of this image will stay on Cruz. I call this a big strategic blunder by Cruz.

Kasich B-. John Kasich is not a natural for TV debates but is doing the best he can. He has a great record but his support is so slim he obviously has no chance to win the race. He is running for VP at best. 

Rubio C+. Marco Rubio is going down in flames, now pandering to the Florida audience to try to win his home state. A lot of passion but he seems to be more playing for his future in the party and the VP race, not to win the contest. It doesn't work well if Rubio with his talent is not trying to win the debate, and is not trying to beat the guy at the top. The talent is totally wasted. So what we could enjoy before, was now mostly hot air of no relevance (outside of Florida).

So what happens. I think Trump starts to rise in national polling again. He should get to his 40% level. Cruz likely stalls in his growth. The big tests are the home races for Kasich and Rubio. If either loses, they essentially are out of the race. But they do have chances to win their home states. But this debate could have been a pivotal moment for any of the rivals. Today none took that opportunity which means Trump wins. Trump is already talking about not wanting to do more debates, if he can wiggle out of one or two of the last remaining debates, he'd be essentially home free. But if both Kasich and Rubio lose their home states (to Trump) then Cruz would have his one-on-one race. I think its very late in the day, and most of Cruz's best states have already voted. What Cruz would need is for Trump to be bleeding, and for everybody to keep attacking Trump. This debate did not help Cruz and it did help Trump. If Cruz was waiting for the last one-against-one stage of the race, he can't go into it with Trump seen as 'Presidential' and Cruz seen as timid and not willing to attack Trump. I do think Trump now clinched his nomination. 

(with that said, just watch Cruz gaining massively, Trump suffering and Rubio having a miraculous recovery haha)

Comments

[cornelius]

Hi Tomi,
Thank you for the analysis.
Regarding Rubio's chances of winning Florida, I diagree with you. Baring a miraculous miracle, he is done, actually he is past well-done. One can't even stick a fork in him anymore. He's as hard as a rock. Here is an article that explains why Rubio is not popular in Florida:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/03/09/is_it_already_over_for_rubio_in_florida.html
A quick survey of the analysts' opinions on the debate reveals a general consensus that Rubio won the debate, Trump has mixed results and Ted and Kasich lost.
Most online polls show Trump a winner with over 80%. Only one poll had Trump barely win with over 40% over Cruz who also scored over 40%.
When can we expect some stuff on the forgotten front of mobile wars?

[cornelius]

In other news Ben Carson is endorsing Trump. One analyst joked that Trump is the only man on Earth that could score endorsements from both David Duke and Ben Carson.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

hi cornelius

the smartphone final 2015 and q4 stats are up... :-)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[cornelius]

@Tomi
Thank you. I just noticed the new smartphone stats.
This explains why you are missing in action at the 007 front :-)

[statistic]

Why did Hillary Clinton lose Michigan? What the hell happened?

[cornelius]

@statistic Because she focused too much on winning big in the other states in the South. Because the number of states won is not important. Important is the number of delegates. And she actually increased that number as she lost Michigan.

[cornelius]

Correction. I meant she increased her lead while both of them increased the number of their delegates.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi all

The two Donald Trumps. I am not making this up. Politico has fresh story related to Dr Ben Carson endorsing Trump. Carson (a brain surgeon) says there are two Trumps. Trump is asked about it. Trump replies "Perhaps there are two Donald Trumps." and just a little bit later Trump responds to essentially the same question "I don't think there's two Donald Trumps."

Thats your perfect Mitt Romney 2.0. Now Trump can give you two opposite answers inside the same press conference. Now how could Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio not destroy this guy? How could the 'dream team' of Republican deep bench 'heavyweights' from Scott Walker to Jeb Bush to Mike Huckabee to Rick Perry - ok, yeah, sorry - to Carly Fiorina to George Pataki to Chris Christie to John Kasich to Rick Santorum to Lindsay Graham - let this clown be the last man standing? How hapless are the Republicans.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Catriona]

@statistic, Hillary lost Michigan (thus keeping Sanders in the race even longer, and draining potential campaign funds) because the voters there saw through her baseless attacks on Bernie Sanders. She put all her chips on Flint, while lying about Sanders' support for the auto industry.

@cornelius, Hillary was expected to win Michigan by 20%.

Anyway, I'm guessing that after this past week, Biden is regretting not running. Even if he got only 20-30% of the vote (I'm guessing 2/3 at the expense of Clinton and 1/3 from Sanders), given the proportionality rules, he'd probably have prevented either candidate from getting a majority. Technically, if all the superdelegates aligned with Clinton, she could have gotten the nomination with 35% of the delegates, but with him in the race, I don't think she'd be getting all the superdelegate support, particularly with the e-mail scandal perking up.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

To all

Newsweek has done what I believe is the first head-to-head STATE victories study of Trump vs Hillary. It is based on a national polling lead head-to-head for Hillary of 6 points. Their model says Hillary wins all but one of the 2012 Obama states (Trump flips the tightest race, Florida). It gives Hillary a victory of 304 vs 236 in the electoral college. They also test Bernie against the 3 top Republican rivals (he beats them all) and test Rubio and Cruz against the two Democrats, Rubio does best, Cruz mid-ground and Trump obviously worst among the three against either rival. Its interesting and more significant analysis than just the national head-to-head number. See it here

http://www.newsweek.com/can-trump-or-cruz-beat-clinton-data-434775

I expect this type of analysis now to start to appear. If Hillary 'only' beats Trump by six or seven points (or even 5) then yeah, that type of election result is likely. Florida will be on the edge, Ohio also likely will be close, Virginia not so much. Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin - those will be safely for Hillary.

If the race goes to 9 or 10 points, then Florida is safe for Hillary as is North Carolina (that Obama won in 2008 but lost in 2012). The real battleground will be in Missouri, Indiana, Georgia and Arizona, plus possibly a few states near the Canadian border Montana, North or South Dakota. The higher Hillary's margin of victory, the more she takes.

If the win margin goes to 15 points, Texas is in play and at 20 points like I forecasted, Texas flips. Then all the above states will go for the Democrat and the race is in South, how much of Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennesee, West Virginia and Louisiana can Hillary carry, and which of Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina can Hillary steal. The last areas of extreme red states, Kansas, Oklahoma, Utah - will remain red even if Hillary pushes past 20% victory margin.

I can't wait to get some of the more 'established' and credible analysts do their state-by-state maps. It usually was Meet the Press that did the first big map, then others like the 538 blog etc would follow soon. We may get those maps earlier this year because the pairing is so clear so early.

PS violence in Chicago? I said one of the worst aspects of the Trump glorification of violence against protesters is that it will erupt in physical violence. Makes me so sad. And the irony of attacking protesters, Trump's campaign manager Lewandowski attacks a reporter from Breitbart - the site probably most positive to Trump from the start. So yeah. It has all the makings of Hitler-esque violence that is accelerating and it is far beyond what Trump can control. He has no idea what he is unleashing (and how much damage this will do to the Republican party for decades to come)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Catriona

Joe Biden yeah, he'll have some buyer's remorse as clearly does Mitt Romney. But Biden is also smart enough to know he couldn't have beaten Hillary either. Hillary's position and support by her party is stronger than Obama had at this point in 2008 (a race that Biden ran in and already had quit)

Romney is the one who seems more eager to want a way back in. He is hoping for a truly deadlocked convention where Cruz, Rubio, Kasich & Trump supporters simply refuse to join, and after 20 or 30 votes resulting in no winner, and the party start to ask for a compromise candidate, suddenly Romney would be seen as the savior to the party. And Romney could go run once again, to lose once again. As if the 47% would play less damagingly this year, and 'binders of women' would somehow turn magical when the rival is not a man but a woman.

Catriona - the email (and Benghazi perhaps, Bill Clinton's behavior too?) is TRIVIAL when compared to all the scandals and messes in Trump's past, starting with Trump University. Trump is literally the most hated candidate ever to run on a major party ticket and to be a front-runner; plus he is the most damaged candidate by his past - so all the damage to Trump will be FAR worse than what was thrown say at Mitt Romney last time. So take this violence right now in Chicago. The standard TV ad will feature Trump saying silly stuff like he was advised by Chicago cops to cancel the event (as Trump now claims). In reality there was no such advisory from the cops, it was Trump's own side who cancelled. Then we see Trump repeatedly asking his audience to go beat up protesters in his audience - interlaced with video like the black man just now a few days ago sucker-punched by the Trump supporter in the cowboy hat. And then the ad has Trump yelling from the podium - beat them up, I will pay your court fees. This is a thug. Put this against Hillary's email 'scandal' where she did nothing illegal (while it was somewhat dumb). There is no contest, Catriona. Trump is behaving like Hitler. Those who hated Hillary will continue to hate her, but harping on the email (or Benghazi or Bill) will not harm her at all, it only helps her be a martyr to her supporters and win over independents who see these matters long since litigated and closed. But Trump, he is the gift that gives on giving. The opposition file that the Hillary campaign have on Trump must be the largest ever done by any campaign on any conceivable rival. It is like Sarah Palin but squared. He is the worst candidate to run for a general election on either side, in history.

BTW didn't I tell you that it will be the national security wing of the Republican party where the Hillary Republicans will be found. Already many Neocons are jumping onto the Hillary wagon. And its MARCH for heaven's sake haha. This will be an epic bloodbath.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Catriona]

@Tomi, that the Donald Rumsfelds and Dick Cheneys of the world prefer Hillary should be reason enough to hate her. She is the worst of both worlds. At least Congress would unite to block Trump. Hillary will have her flunkies (i.e. the entire Democratic Party) do her bidding. She is truly a dangerous person. The foreign policy of George W Bush combined with the domestic policy of Barack Obama.

[Catriona]

Bill Clinton is another worthless POS and likely rapist of Juanita Broadrick who worthless POS "feminists" like Gloria Steinem defended (just like worthless POS Ted Kennedy - guilty of reckless homicide) because he paid lip service to women's causes. The Clintons are a complete embarrassment to this country. Bill appointed idiots to SCOTUS and so would Hillary.

[Catriona]

Remember, it was Hillary who pushed Obama to invade Libya. Obama wanted to stay out. Hillary is just a left wing Dick Cheney. Anyone who supports her is either an idiot or an evil warmonger.

[Catriona]

The fact that Democrats are in love with her leads me to believe that they are just as bad or even worse than Republicans. At least Republicans don't like their leaders. Democrats shut up and take their marching orders from their establishment.

[Catriona]

While I disagree with Millennials, at least they look for honesty. Sanders is misguided but he is a decent human being. That's more than I can say about Hillary. I'm still hopeful that Cruz can win or deny Trump a majority. While Cruz is wrong on abortion and SSM he is right on Obamacare and how worthless the GOP establishment is. If not for Scalia's death I'd welcome a GOP disintegration but we can't let another Sotomayor or RBG onto the court. People who would ban books or movies in election years because they advocate for or against candidates have no place on a court intended to uphold our constitutional rights.

[Catriona]

Say what you will about Trump. At least he tried to have his rally on an inner city college campus. Hillary had her rally yesterday in a lily-white suburb 40 miles north of the land of her former protege Rahm Emanuel. Sanders had his rally in a majority minority suburb not far from where I grew up. Cruz had his rally in the suburbs but also attended a dinner in downtown Chicago where protesters had the opportunity to make their views held.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Catriona:

Chill down. We all know that Hillary is no saint (and Bill too, of course). But, she is a smart woman. Bill Clinton has done mistakes and possibly crimes. But his policies have been, in general, beneficial for the USA. That's what most people remember and that's why most people see the Clintons as one of the good guys.

Name calling is unlikely to convince anyone. If all you can come up with is that the Clintons are the spawn of the satan then Hillary is in a real good position indeed. Because ultimately, it's down to policies and to a lesser extent personalities, not Karma. :)

[Catriona]

But Hillary has repudiated most of Bill's policies. She's now running to the left of Bernie Sanders. Anyone who votes for her thinking she's Bill II is in for a rude awakening in January. Bill Clinton cut welfare. He was tough on crime. He made the federal government smaller and more efficient. He deregulated the financial system (and contrary to popular opinion, Dodd-Frank did not undo the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act). Which of those does Hillary Clinton advocate right now?

She's also a hawk. Invading Libya was her idea. I am not kidding when I say she is a combination of Elizabeth Warren and Dick Cheney. So why is she popular? Clinton's going to get us into costly wars AND try to pass costly social programs.

[Wayne Borean]

ROFL. We get it Catriona. You don't like Hillary Clinton.

I don't either.

But then I don't like any of the candidates other than Bernie Sanders. He is the only one who seems to believe what he is pushing.

The rest? Liars and opportunists. They'll do and say anything to get elected.

Any of them might end up being a good President. Might. We can't tell because they are all actors upon a stage.

Take Cruz. He does a great religious ass. Is it real? Hard to tell.

Trump? He's a television actor. Rubio? Plays poor boy made good real well. Clinton is a chameleon.

Kasich? Who knows. He gets ignored so much I have no feel for him.