Who Has Smartphones? Pew has Excellent Survey Data on 40 Countries, Rich and Poor

We have new data on smartphone penetration rates via Pew today. This is rare measured consumer data which covers 40 major countries on all six inhabited continents. It actually does NOT include many of the ‘usual suspects’ like Finland, Sweden, Norway, Singapore, UAE and Hong Kong - as each of these are quite ‘small’ by population considering the countries in the sample. Actually even many mid-sized European nations are ignored such as Switzerland, Austria, Netherlands and Belgium (all of which are often measured in various surveys) So if you get 40 countries without these, you know its a pretty good set of countries. And what do we learn? Pew has asked adults who has mobile phones and of those, who have smartphones. We get straight out of the survey for those 40 countries their adult population mobile phone penetration rates, the smartphone penetration rates, the percentage of the adults who have neither, and we can calculate the migration rate of the mobile phone users of those countries from dumbphones to smartphones.

But even this great sample of 40 countries is not the world (of 212 countries give or take). And we do have also the issue of asking only adults, while in some countries kids as young as age 8 have mobile phones (recent DNA survey said in Finland 8 year olds have mobile phones at 98% ownership rate). So I did a bit of math to get us a ‘regional’ split of the data, by the 8 regions I use in my reports and the TomiAhonen Almanac and the TomiAhonen Phone Book. Those 8 regions start with the six continents split Europe into West and East, separates the Middle East out of Asia and Africa; splits Asia into the rich part (combined with Oceania for Rich APAC region) and the remaining Emerging World of Asia. And for the continent of North America, I take the cultural split moving Mexico and Central America with South America as many do with Latin America numbers. This is how I estimate the extrapolated numbers for the total planet's population based on Pew survey data on adults.

So first off, the impacts to our big numbers. The way I count it, I think Pew's numbers are consistent with 5.0B total unique mobile phone owners (a bit more than the 4.8B just reported by Cisco). That is the 'relevant' number when contrasted with the massive number we now talk about, 7.9 Billion total mobile subscriptions (aka active mobile accounts or even 'users'). But that includes multiple mobile (phone and/or subscription aka SIM card) ownerships. By my math we are at about 5.4 Billion total mobile phones in use, so if the unique user base is 5.0 Billion, it means 8% of the planet's population has two phones (400 million people, almost only in the affluent countries where that would be roughly in line with that math too). Obviously the growth of mobile phones is now among the very poor, and they aren't about to buy two actual phones any day soon. But the 5.0 Billion unique total mobile user number seems very solid based on the adult survey data and plugging in the youth data with my assumptions regionally about their mobile ownership. This number is 69% of the planet's total population including all ages from babies to great grandparents.

Smartphone Uniques is the more interesting number next. It does take even more assumptions (of teens having mobile phones, how is that smartphone ownership vs the adults in the same region) but again, we get good regional survey data and we do have age based ownership data from occasional sources and can make reasonable estimates. That gives us a smartphone unique user count of 2.3 Billion. This seems a bit high to me, but the survey data by Pew is solid and I don't feel comfortable cutting the youth numbers down much because they are far more addicted to mobile and hungry to get their smartphones. But I do get 2.3 Billion as the unique smartphone user count (32% of the planet's population) and then if the total smartphone installed base is 2.6 Billion (as per my normal analysis) it means 300 million of the total smartphone installed base are duplicate smartphones in the pockets of the same pants of that one person. (A single person with pockets so big they fit 300 million phones? No, you know what I mean haha). So we have a VERY rare number indeed - a count of unique smartphone owners. 2.3 Billion. So put that in context of say 1.0 Billion Whatsapp users or say 3.2 Billion total internet users. So about two thirds of total internet users now access the internet on a smartphone (and several hundred million more do so with a featurephone aka dumbphone).

Now on the migration rate, this is not a good measure coming out of this data but we do get a vaguely relevant number. The actual measured number is 'migration of unique mobile phone owners who have gone to smartphones'. The market of smartphones, the installed base of smartphones, those migration rates are going to be different. But again, the CONSUMER who has taken the leap from dumbphones to smartphones, that is the 'relevant' migration rate. That we can now estimate to be about 47%. Almost half of all people who have at least one mobile phone - now have at least one smartphone. Note, someone who has two phones might have one smart and one dumbphone, that person counts now by this measure as 'having migrated'.

(Are you enjoying this as much as I do?)

Ok, lets do the big table. Regionally, who has mobile phones, and who has smartphones? By region, based on the Pew survey data, extrapolated fully to total planet's population by countries and by age. This is what it looks like:

REGION . . . . . . UNIQUE MOBILE. . . UNIQUE SMARTPHONE . . . MOBILE USERS ONLY . . . . PEOPLE STILL 
OF WORLD . .. .. OWNERS . . . . . . . . OWNERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . OWNING DUMBPHONE(S). .WITHOUT MOBILE
North America  . .86% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
West Europe . . . 88% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
East Europe  . . . 82% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
APAC (Rich) . . . 89% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
Asia Emerging. . 66% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  39% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
Middle East . . . .73% . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  27%
Africa . . . . . . . . .56% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  44%
Latin America . . 66% . . . . . . . . . . . . .  33% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  34%
WORLD . . . . . . .69%  . . . . . . . . . . . . .32% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  31%
Sources: Pew Survey & TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis, Feb 23, 2016
This table may be freely shared


And the totals: World has 5.0 Billion unique mobile phone owners. Of those, 2.3 Billion have at least one smartphone, and the remaining 2.7 Billion unique mobile phone users only uses a dumbphone or dumbphones. 

There you are. All this data may be freely shared. Please do go and study the Pew data for the individual 40 countries. If you want the regional data from here, please do use that above table in any way you want. 

For those who need more data like this, including several mobile phone data points spread across those 8 regions, the next source for you is the TomiAhonen Phone Book which came out last year in the 2014 Edition. It has over 90 tables and charts, everything you ever wanted to know about the mobile phone industry from smart to dumb and including the OS wars. Get the TomiAhonen Phone Book 2014 here. 

Comments

[suvi-tuuli reenkola]

Ok

[Catriona]

Interesting. North America leads in unique smartphone adoption. Does North America include Mexico, or is that Latin America? Also, who is in APAC Rich?

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi suvi-tuuli and Catriona

Catriona - yeah N Am has taken that lead now (was held by Europe). If Japanese featurephones were included as smartphones - they tend to be better than most premium smartphones on all specs - then APAC Rich would be higher. But Japan is such a high % of that region so when their dumbphones are included in the regional average, it brings down the 'smartphone penetration' rate. And in terms of individual countries, a dozen small countries are far above USA's smartphone penetration rate starting here in Hong Kong, but with UAE, Singapore, Finland-Sweden-Norway etc.

On regions. I mentioned that Mexico is counted in LatAm (as is Central America and the Caribbean). So N Am is only USA + Canada (obviously population-weighted). APAC Rich is Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong etc the so-called Tiger nations of Asia, plus Oceania ie Australia, New Zealand, Fiji, New Caledonia etc.

APAC Rich is the most necessary distinction in the table, separating it from the Emerging Asia part. Emerging Asia is China, India, Indonesia, Philippines etc - and when you compare those to Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore etc - there is the largest gulf within a geographic region. So most who report, lump Asia as one entity. That hides the incredibly rich and advanced 'Tiger' nations, and it artificially raises the total averages for the rest of Asia.

This division of those 8 regions is what I have always used in all of my regional split, for more than a decade, including my presentations, workshops, this blog, and my published reports and forecasts.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS]

More news about the abusive monopoly. WP is going down, ...and it's all over the Web!!!! Many of the articles (below) have comments with readers trashing microsoft and WP (rightly so) but you can also see the astroturfers too, hard at work and repeating the delusional talking-point that microsoft will win by flooding the IOS/ANDROID systems with all their wonderful (slow, buggy and crappy) apps ...too funny!. The lesson is that everyone is figuring out that WP is just CRAP!

http://www.pcworld.com/article/3035100/phones/android-leads-and-windows-phone-fades-in-gartners-smartphone-sales-report.html

http://liliputing.com/2016/02/is-anybody-buying-windows-phones-yes-but-not-many-people.html

http://www.htxt.co.za/2016/02/19/blackberry-and-windows-phone-are-exhaling-their-last-breath/

http://www.technobuffalo.com/2016/02/18/mobile-os-market-share-gartner/

http://www.neowin.net/news/smart-phone-sales-for-2015-are-in-and-its-not-looking-good-for-windows-phones

http://mspoweruser.com/gartner-confirms-windows-phones-1-1-market-share-in-q4-2015/

https://rcpmag.com/articles/2016/02/18/windows-phone-share-just-1-percent.aspx

...etc. etc. etc.

All you microsoft astroturfers remember to yell out before dinner that: NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE! ...EVEN A SURFACE PHONE!!!!!

[NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS]

Please notice that all things Windows in "anything" are "disastrous" or "disasterous" or ...no matter how you spell it...Windows is just a "DISASTER" ...want proof, then investigate windows 10.

All you microsoft astroturfers remember to yell out before breakfast too, that: NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE! ...EVEN A SURFACE PHONE!!!!!

[Henry Sinn]

Hi Tomi

Please see e-mail

Would like to chat. Left-field (not quite mobile), very real global opportunity.

[Wayne Borean]

@NO ONE

OK, we get it. You don't like Windows. We get it

@Tomi,

Do you include Turkey and Israel in Middle East or Europe?

Am curious if South Africa differs wildly from the rest of the continent.

The table is difficult to read. Can't you embed a gif/jpg of your spreadsheet? That's what I do with WordPress.

[George]

I believe that many poor 3rd people have cheap dual sim China phones,
With two prepaid SIM
Furthermore they swap SIM cards very often even monthly, to get a better deal
But the operator still consider that abandoned number as active for a year after last active use
Even if only 150 million people do this, the survey counts them as 1 billion active users
So data could be skewed

[NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS]

Now here is an interesting windows phone review with a "poll" from a microsoft fan boy site:

http://www.neowin.net/news/poll-are-you-planning-to-buy-a-windows-phone

The poll shows almost 50% won't consider windows phone AND this is mostly Microsoft fan's forum but everyone knows the majority of them are just astroturfers. Everyone please vote! The astroturfers are voting early and often in an attempt to skew the results, LoL!!!!!

And of course from the world of CRAP surface software from the same ...Ahemmm microsoft fan site:

http://www.neowin.net/news/ipad-pro-outsells-surface-line-up

That's only the "iPad Pro" against the ENTIRE surface line-up ...too funny!

News about the "windows 10" store. Just more CRAP from microsoft: of course "developer feedback is anything but positive."

http://www.extremetech.com/computing/223246-the-windows-10-store-still-isnt-working

http://www.extremetech.com/computing/221714-the-windows-10-store-has-a-serious-app-discovery-issue-and-its-developers-arent-pleased

"Even Microsoft, it seems, doesn't have much confidence in its Windows 10 Mobile OS. The company has only committed to support it for two years!":

http://www.fiercemobileit.com/story/can-microsoft-stop-downward-spiral-its-windows-mobile-os/2016-02-19

All you microsoft astroturfers remember to yell out before lunch too, that: NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE! ...EVEN A SURFACE PHONE!!!!!

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi George

You misunderstood what was surveyed by Pew. Yes, its true many people - not just poor people - for many reasons have multiple SIM cards. Like me, I have currently 7 active SIM cars, only 3 are based out of Hong Kong, the other 4 are local SIM cards in countries that I visit relatively often. And I'm not exactly haha, poor.

The measurement of SIM cards, mobile subscriptions, is done usually from counting mobile operator data and yes, the operators have an incentive to keep reporting dead SIM cards because one of the industry key metrics is the 'Subscriber count' or count of customers. They don't like to report that their customer numbers went down, so operators tend to want to keep SIM cards as active. But often regulators have stepped in to require a limit to how long an inactive SIM card should be counted, usually this is 3 months. So its not today as large a problem as it was about 5 years ago.

But that Pew survey is not about SIM cards or subscriptions. It is a CONSUMER survey of normal people, asking if they own a mobile phone (and if they do, then a second question, if they own a smartphone). This has nothing to do with how MANY accounts someone has, ie it is not an attempt to count SIM cards and there is no systematic error here of overcounting in that manner. This is a pure consumer survey, do you own a mobile phone? Yes/No. They don't try to map HOW MANY phones we own, just whether we own one. It is VERY valuable and VERY RARE info, as no mobile operator can get this data (as it would require knowing their competitor CUSTOMER data which nobody is willing to share).

So you make a good point that is relevant to some mobile statistics, but not this one. This is a consumer survey of handset ownership. I hope this helped explain the difference.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS]

More news from the world of microsoft failures ...doesn't it just warm your heart to see an abusive monopolist struggle and fail ...often! :-)

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/02/02/is-it-time-for-micrsoft-to-exit-the-smartphone-bus.aspx

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/02/05/no-microsofts-surface-isnt-beating-the-ipad.aspx

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/02/02/forget-facebook-and-microsoft-apple-and-samsung-ar.aspx

And it appears no one is interested in porting apps to WP. Too funny!

http://www.androidpolice.com/2016/02/25/microsoft-confirms-android-to-windows-app-tool-project-astoria-is-dead/

Mocking microsoft is a becoming a common theme!

"one last "Hail Mary" aimed at pulling Windows 10 Mobile from its current worm-eaten existence." :-) at:
http://betanews.com/2016/02/25/microsoft-demolish-windows-bridge-for-android-coffin/

"Darn customers and their 'I-just-wanna-use-a-working-phone' desires" :-) at:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/01/28/windows_mobile_faces_cant_upgrade_wont_upgrade_challenge/

You just got to love some of the comments, read while enjoying some popcorn is my recommendation:

"I had a Lumia 720 for 2 years, which sadly died a hideous death which was its own fault. It kept loading Cortana up so I had to beat it with an axe."

The "Windows phone landfill in full swing."

"The utter cluster-f*ck that is Windows 10 deserves every bit of dung being flung at it."

"Windows 95 Phone? Yeah! Bring it on!"

" M$ seems to have succeeded only in completely divorcing itself from reality. Again"

"After 22 years of getting excited about Microsoft almost getting it right in the next version, I think I'm finally getting over it."

...lot's more. Too funny!!!!!!

All you microsoft astroturfers remember to yell out before afternoon tea, that: NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE! ...EVEN A SURFACE PHONE!!!!!

[NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS]

Hi Tomi, Your thoughts? ....Is this another possible direction for smartphones and also notice that "was in talks with telecom companies about possibly using their networks to operate its own mobile phone services in the United States."

http://m.tech.firstpost.com/news-analysis/build-your-own-google-handset-reconstructs-smartphone-257640.html

To all microsoft astroturfers: NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE! ...EVEN A SURFACE PHONE!!!!!

[NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS]

More news for the abusive monopolist (even typical astroturfer sites see the train in the tunnel):

http://mspoweruser.com/idc-finally-gives-windows-phone-predicts-ever-falling-sales/

https://redmondmag.com/articles/2016/03/01/last-call-for-windows-mobile.aspx?admgarea=BDNA

http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/2449780/idc-windows-phone-is-going-to-have-a-pretty-rough-year

Got to enjoy the comments such as:
"Windows Phone is going to have a pretty rough year" There is other interesting news I heard recently: "The sky is blue"

To all microsoft astroturfers stop talking out your arse and yell out: NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE! ...EVEN A SURFACE PHONE!!!!!

[Ricky Peña]

Hi Tomi,

Thanks for your informative blog. Wondering how this new information on smartphone penetration would change the data you presented re cameraphones and number of photos taken in your Aug 2014 blog. Appreciate your updated insights on any consumer trends and/or data that impacts on the subject.

Thanks.

Ricky