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« Lenovo Q4 Smartphones and also that disasterous Microsoft Lumia Windows Phone quarter | Main | Remember the Hitler Bunker Scene Meme? I created fresh Hitler Scene joke about Trump »

February 04, 2016


Wayne Borean

Make Trump
Great Again


This tantrum might cost Trump the nomination:

Ted Cruz on Donald Trump: "He's losing it"

But think back some time. Wasn't there speculation that Trump would at some time look for an excuse to step out of the race because of a secret pact with Cruz/Hillary/the Devil? Or even decide to run as an independent?

Wouldn't this be the perfect excuse?

Nah, Trump deliberately making a fool of himself, impossible.

Stephen Reed


I am interested to observe how accurate are the polls post-Iowa. Should we discount by some factor the huge lead held in the national polls by Donald Trump? New Hampshire polls have Trump leading. I wonder how he will do with regard to lowered expectations.

Looking forward to your next debate review.


Sanatorium has quit the race and he endorsed... drum roll... more drum rolls... Marco Rubio of all the candidates. WTH? If the ultra-religious nuts endorse Rubio, then basically every single quitter will endorse him. I am really worried because Rubio is the only republican that can beat either Clinton or Sanders.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Wayne, Winter, Stephen & cornelius

Wayne - LOL..

Winter - yeah, I am still keeping that option in the back of my mind. If Trump wants out, I think he has such a huge ego, he can't go out as a 'loser' which is how he would be remembered if he pulled out now, BUT if he won the next two states, so he was up 2 states and came second in 1, then it would let him get out as a winner. BUT I also think, he's seen the in-state polls in half of the states that have had polling, and Trump leads in all of them except Texas now that Iowa is out. I think there was one Minnesota or Michigan or Missouri or some M-state where Trump was only second but even that was quite a while ago. Everywhere else he is ahead. As Trump knows that his debate stunt cost him a clear victory in Iowa, he also knows that this will soon be forgotten and as long as the polling after Iowa has him ahead - and as long as he wins NH - then he really is on the road to win this whole shebang. Why on earth would he drop out (unless he has some plan to do so haha for some other reason ie give it to Hillary or Cruz or in some other weird Hollywood-ending scenario change the world of politics haha).

Stephen - yeah me too. We have several polls now out after the Iowa result which show Trump down about 4 points from before. He is still 'safely' ahead of the pack. Cruz barely picked up anything, Rubio has a modest surge, but the race is now a four-way tie for second place with Kasich and Jeb also in that mix and Christie falling further behind. Fiorina is excluded from the next debate and Dr Carson is gosh, still continuing but he should run out of money soon and have to quit. Those flights to Florida to change clothes is a bit extravagant if you can't handle the local dry cleaner provided by your hotel haha..

This next debate by the Republican field is probably the most influential potentially, but also, I think much of the remaining base of Trump supporters are very solid. I think he has something like a 25% to 30% certain voter base who are now locked in and will stand by him forever. And he has easily room to grow back to 35% to 40% in support but I think he has solidified his ceiling now to about that 40% level. So what Trump needs desperately is for two moderates to continue plus Cruz of course. As Cruz should be taking 20% or so, could be 15% could be 30% - and if there are two others, Rubio and someone, then the moderates will mostly divide the rest.

And we then have an interesting scenario. Would Trump support Rubio's strongest moderate rival? Maybe even contribute money to his (it won't be her) campaign. At least stop attacking him while continuing to attack Rubio. LOL that could well be Jeb coming out of NH, wouldn't that be ironic. But yeah, Kasich or as a long-shot, Christie. If Trump continues doing what he has been doing, especially as the field clearly now narrows and there are less left standing, he has ample opportunity to attack everybody (and doesn't need to care about Carson or Fiorina) Trump most likely, being Trump, won't take in much advice from anyone and continues exactly the same he's been all along, an equal-opportuity wrecking ball. And that could easily mean that one of the rivals gets hit so hard, they fall. The moderate side is still searching for their guy. The conservatives found Ted Cruz. The moderates are pondering between four (Rubio, Kasich, Jeb, Christie) and are picking up a few spare Rand Paul supporters (some who went to Ted Cruz on his 'libertarian' play and some even went to Trump).

If the moderates all quickly settled on one, most likely Rubio, then it would set up a race of 40-20-40 Trump-Cruz-Rubio. The longer that field stays shattered, the more it gets Cruz's chance to pick up some and say March 1 it could be 40-25-35 but very likely that 35 is still split by 2 or 4 remaining candidates so it could be 40-25-20-10-5 for example. In any way I look at it, I see Trump winning the next three states and the majority of March 1 SEC primary states and having well above 40% and probably closer to 50% of all delegates awarded by March 2. BUT if Rubio could suddenly unite the moderate side after NH or latest SC - then a 40-20-40 race could be on, and Rubio could turn into the strong rival to Trump, but then the schedule is totally against him anyway, as Cruz is so favored on the SEC primary March 1, where Cruz will pick up more delegates than Rubio in almost any scenario, suggesting that Cruz is the stonger of the two remaining non-Trumps.

Now... all eyes will be on the returning Trump in the next debate. I have been grading Trump at a B level recently so he is mid-field, not as strong as Cruz or Christie but not as weak as Jeb or Kasich. Christie has again fallen after his bumps he gets in the debates, he has been best at the debates so far by my grading but I warned last time, he is starting to sound a bit like a broken record, it may be that his ability to generate post-debate bumps is diminishing. Christie needs a 'miracle' out of NH as he has fallen to about half the level of support from his peak in NH. The debate could do that for him. Christie in my mind would be the strongest to take Trump on, with a style quite similar to Trump's but with far better skills at the actual debate stage, plus better grasp of the politics so throwing in the smart insightful digs this way or that, whether its about Cruz vs Rubio with two Senators bickering, or about potentially a TV celebrity skipping a debate to run a mock-veterans event instead... Christie could be that 'dragon-slayer' I talked about before, that he has been unwilling to be on the big stage. He did early on seem to want to take on Trump but then also felt the heat of Trump attacking him. If Christie wanted to try a 'hail-Mary pass' this could be his moment and he might come out the hero after the debate. I think he will be out of the race if he finishes 6th behind Trump, Cruz and 3 moderates.

I think Trump is 'safe' to win NH anyway, his base support is too loyal. If Trump wins with 35% or 40% roughly where the polling is now or has been recently, he will be the clear winner and Iowa will be forgotten. If Trump stumbles in the debate, sees erosion in his support and Cruz and Rubio score well above 20% and Trump falls to about 30% or even under that, then the narrative will be far more, that part of Trump's support is 'air' and they are celebrity fans who came to his events and his actual real voting support is far weaker than what polls show. That would factor into my model and forecast, I have of course assumed that the polls are accurate but I made a number of adjustments beyond them like the ground game, open vs closed, caucus vs primary etc etc etc. But if the base forecast is based on polls capturing reality, and if it emerges that Trump support had lets say one in five voters who are so unreliable voters they won't show up, then Trump would come down from that roughly 40% support to only 30% support nationally. If again we say Cruz is at 20%, then suddenly the chance emerges for a moderate to win, even after a split early start, so that say the race of the remaining races from March to June, are split 30-20-50, then if Rubio has most or all of that, he could catch up around April and take the winner-take-all states and steal the nomination from Trump.

One further wrinkle now for NH. Independents can vote in either primary. There is a lot of Independent support for Bernie which is part of his huge lead over Hillary in the state, distinct from the national polling between the two or most other states that have been polled. That could change for two reasons. One is that NH voters could think, Bernie is in the bag, voting for him will be a 'wasted' vote because he will win anyway. And they could because of that, or regardless of that, look at the Republican side, and come vote there instead. Some voters who like Trump also like Bernie (and vice versa). So some of those could go to Trump. Others - remember these are Independents - hate Trump, his unfavorability among Independents is quite large - and could come to vote as spoilers. Vote for essentially any Republican other than Trump. And some Independents could have a favorite among Republicans even if they overall prefer Bernie, and could come cast a vote for say Kasich or Jeb instead of Bernie. Here is where that New York Times endorsement of Kasich for example would play well.

Because of this dynamic is possible the Bernie vote is down (but Hillary not up). Then the shifting votes could split so, that some go to Trump (so he won't be down) but others - Independents - go to Kasich and Jeb and possibly Christie, but not Rubio (too conservative). Then the actual Republican result would be that Trump would be about where the polling said it should be, Kasich and Jeb above what it was supposed to be, meaning Cruz and Rubio below what polls showed. Kasich (or possibly Jeb) could steal second place. Again best possible outcome for Trump as long as he won it, to have Rubio not come second so Rubio will have a hard time convincing all that he should be the last moderate man standing. Meanwhile if the Democratic vote is down (Independents shifting to vote on the Republican primary) and Hillary stays the same so the shifters are all Bernie voters, then the proportional outcome would show a Hillary surprise better-than-predicted result and Bernie down. Bernie would still easily win. But it could be closer to a 55-45 win than a 60-40 win for Bernie which the Hillary camp would spin as a huge upset..

One last observation. Trumpertantrum. Trump has embraced the term (weird) and then says he doesn't have tantrums. I think both are dumb moves politically and will hurt him in the long run. We've seen him have tantrums all the time but now his words can be taken into the next round when this hashtag returns. Its as if Sarah Palin had openly endorsed the SNL parody of herself, almost inviting more of it (and thus clearly encouraging his supporters to go and laugh at him). Some who are die-hard supporters will like this (but hate the constant barrage of ridicule) but soft supporters will be worn down by comedy where pure facts don't connect. Trump is dangerously close to being seen as another Sarah Palin (which he will be once he is properly attacked, ie latest in the general election, as I said, he has a glass jaw) but now welcoming the hashtag Trump seems to be giving his blessing for more ridicule to come, almost inviting it. And by declaring he doesn't have tantrums, the very next one will cause a huge explosion of the Trumpertantrum hashtag again. Its once again the mixture of confusing TV ratings and celebrity 'contest' rules with politics. Its like when he said he will win with the veterans event because he will get better ratings than Fox. Ratings are irrelevant in politics, its voting that matters. Same mistake now with Trumpertantrum and voting. For celebrities its almost universally true, that any publicity is good publicity. But in politics its not true, even though it seems like Trump is successfully blending the two. The votes are the only measure that counts. But this matter we have to shelve and wait until the next explosion of the hashtag to see how it plays. I think this is an erosive effect that comes to peel off a few points of his softer support. What a strong man cannot accept is ridicule. Why Charlie Chaplin's The Great Dictator was such a meaningful film about Hitler at the time turning many who also admired Hitler outside of Germany to dislike him. Humor has that ability where facts can no longer penetrate. Its also something I often do in my workshops and seminars on some of the harder points to sink in, dress it in a joke, get the audience to laugh about it, to also remember and absorb, gosh this is a huge change for that item whatever it happened to be, about mobile.

Yeah, the front-runner stumbled in the first round. He is up again and won't make that mistake again, do not mistake Iowa for being an accurate snapshot of the race. It isn't. Trump is the clear front-runner in the Republican race. On the Democratic side, Bernie is a good rival to Hillary and she stumbled also in Iowa but she eked a win there, in a state she lost last time. Whether that is slightly better or much better than last time, do not delude yourself to thinking Bernie is another Obama. Hillary will easily win the Democratic nomination with a mostly unfractured party. The youth who love Bernie will never vote for any Republican in the field, they will obediently align behind grandma Hillary by August..

cornelius - thanks yes. And if for some reason Santorum won't pick Ted Cruz, then Rubio is the most conservative of the reasonable choices left (obviously Carson is not viable). Plus Rubio could actually win the Presidency which Cruz cannot so Santorum can be hoping for some Cabinet post out of this endorsement (may have been negotiated by their staffs possibly well before Iowa even voted) Its almost no actual voters, Santorum was polling at under 1% nationally and even worse in NH but its a news item to help the Marcomentum... Of 'really worried' no, don't be. Rubio is INCREDIBLY conservative and young and naive. Currently the head-to-head polling does have Marco doing best against Hillary and he's been ahead almost every such poll taken. It won't last if Rubio was the only choice and his position is well known. In such a poll of choices, if one person is far ahead against everybody, you the voter is tempted to show the pollster that you are also reasonable that your answer is balanced, so if you think you want Hillary (or Bernie) ahead of everybody on the Republican side easily, a temptation comes to give someone the benefit of the doubt, hence one emerges above her anyway. Its not strong support for Rubio (yet) where Hillary is known to every voter, most don't know much about Rubio (yet). Once his stance on abortion for example, and his hard words on immigration, and his war-mongering desires and his highly religious vies come to clear view, Hillary will the moderate sensible voice and even Bernie the moderate Socialist would be preferrable to the very-conservative Rubio. Note that in past years Rubio's standing would be on par with Santorum 2012 and Huckabee 2008. He is not a moderate except that this year extremely conservative candidates ran in a Tea Party euphoria led by Ted Cruz. The whole field is more right-wing than usual, which is why Rubio seems moderate. He isn't. So yeah, I hear you, he is the strongest candidate of the Republican field against either Hillary or Bernie but he won't win the nomination. Trump will or else its Cruz. Rubio's chances are tiny. Rubio is running now for VP and for 2020.

Incidentially Trump just said he'd like Cruz as VP.. (which is as silly as Trump saying he'd put Sarah Palin onto his cabinet)

Tomi Ahonen :-)


C'Mon Tomi. Hillary basically admitted she will sell herself to the highest bidder during tonight's debate and yet you are still infatuated with her. "That's what they offered." So $675,000 and Hillary is your stooge. She's cheap.


Why Sanders agreed to a debate is beyond me. It's clear that the billionaires at Comcast told the MSNBC moderators to throw Shrillary nothing but softballs.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Catriona

I am not infatuated with Hillary, I am just honest in acknowledging she will easily win the Democratic nomination. Its you Catriona who has some beef with her personally, its because you seem to hate her, you are so hostile about anything related to Hillary. I have written nothing meaningful about her campaign essentially since the first Democratic debate, and noted nothing of relevance since the big 2016 election preview I wrote in October of 2014, because I hate repeating myself and its all there, as you know. I predicted a Hillary Clinton landslide victory back in October 2014, long before Trump joined this Republican circus and mocked Mexicans, women, the disabled, blacks, a war hero and Muslims. So Hillary's chances are only improving not getting worse. But YOU keep bringing her up now, when its not a race between the two parties, its a race INSIDE the two parties.

Here is the very simple calculation for Hillary. Last time she lost Iowa. She won it by a squeaker, but that means she is ahead of the race already now, compared to 2008, and Bernie is no Obama. Hillary will win easily. She will lose in New Hampshire now, she will win next in Nevada and then again in South Carolina. If Hillary were to lose either of those states - THEN we have at least a race. Now there is no contest between Bernie and Hillary. Bernie is to Hillary a training opponent, to keep her fresh for the big match. Like a boxing champion's sparring partner, nothing more.

Now, is Hillary corrupt and an evil megalomaniagical tyrant, probably yes. Who cares. She is going to be the Democratic nominee, that is clear. And so far absolutely nothing in the race suggests that Trump can beat her or Cruz can beat her, and the chances of Rubio to steal the GOP nomination are very very slim, and then he would still have incredible hurdles to beat Hillary - but yes Rubio is ahead in head-to-head polling currently, I grant you that. I know you like Rubio. We can discuss Rubio's chances if you want.

But for you to complain about Hillary's character flaws is utterly pointless at this stage. She is going to win the Democratic nomination, even you've admitted that she is the front-runner. When we have the pairing, ie the Republicans finally have decided between Trump or Cruz or Rubio - then we can start the discussions of the race between their candidate and Hillary. At this point your comment to a thread about Trump's Trumpertantrum - not just a blog about the Republican race but about Trump's personality flaw, and you bring in Hillary - thats not really relevant, Catriona. Lets talk Trump here, or if you want, Rubio as his rival who is certainly far more sensible and an adult inspite of his boyish young looks.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

To all in the thread

I also used the Hitler Bunker scene parody generator, to use the Hitler Rants meme to further mock Trump. So Hitler is Trump's election coach. Trump is promising to name many famous US landmarks in honor of his mentor, like the White House to be renamed Hitler House, Niagara Falls the Hitler Falls, when...

Its the newest blog article


Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen


Back to NH polling. The immediate aftermath of the Iowa result compared to NH is minimal for Trump. We have four NH polls out now conducted after the Iowa result and Trump is at 32% and he was at 32% then. If we look at the individual polls, 3 of the 4 NH polls had their previous poll conducted close to the time before Iowa voted, they each had Trump down but either by 1 or 2 points only. This SHOULD be a slam-dunk for Trump, where he wins by 10 points or more. So thats kind of the situation now, with the debate boycott factored in, the loss of 'cloak of invincibility' due to the Iowa result, and the boosts to the other candidates out of the win to Cruz and strong showing to Rubio. I think the 'measured' game is totally Trump's to win.

Three important issues come now, first, that theoretically Trump can lose it in the next debate (think back to Rick Perry in 2012 and counting to three), or he could have a breakout moment (imagine Newt Gingrich in 2012 duelling with Andrson Cooper). Also Trump should come under attack from most of his rivals, so his composure will be tested.

Secondly is the possible 'air' that might be there in those voters who like him and say so in a poll, but don't bother to show up to vote. I think there is an element of that, which could not be tested in Iowa and unfortunately can't be isolated in NH either, because of the third item.

Which is the Independents who can vote in either primary. Trump may lose some Independents going to vote for Bernie or could gain some if they think Bernie is in the bag and want to come vote on the Republican side, but there, he has such high negatives, its more likely if there is an Independent voter surge up on GOP side and down on DEM side, that it actually hurts Trump not helps him. They could be coming there to vote against him..

With that, we should know after SC votes, how accurate the polling is vs actual voter turnout for Trump. Before that, there are those three uncertainties that matter but he is so far ahead, he should easily win anyway (unless there is major damage out of the debate).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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