Lenovo Q4 Smartphones and also that disasterous Microsoft Lumia Windows Phone quarter

So onto smartphone wars. Lenovo final number is now out. They sold 20.2 million smartphones including their Motorola unit, which is up 7% from Q3 and gives them a market share of 5.0% market share for Q4. The full year Lenovo shipment number ends at 73.9 million which is up 21% from 2014 and gives Lenovo annual market share of 5.1%.

We also have both IDC and Strategy Analytics with their final Q4 and full year smartphone market counts. So we get our 2015 full year number (as average of their counts) as 1.44B. That is a bit lower than I expected (1.55B) which is mostly due to the Chinese market slowing in the second half as the Chinese economy slowed. In other markets like India the growth is still phenomnal (India this year for the first time becoming a larger smartphone market than the USA and second largest in the world). The lower total annual market size means that my early preliminary market share count was slightly too low, and of course I will do the final 'official' numbers when all the data has come in. But we already now know something...

Now we have the Top 5 settled. Samsung won of course with 322 million and 22% market share. Apple came in second again with 231 million and 16% market share. Huawei was again third, with 108 million and 8%. Lenovo ends in fourth ranking shipping 74 million smartphones for 5% and Xiaomi comes in again fifth with 71 million and 5%. I am still awaiting the details for the last brands so we can do the full Top 10.

Now about the biggest loser, that is of course Microsoft Windows Phone Lumia the ex-Nokia business (now with more Windows ! powered by amazing Windows 10 which is exactly as disasterous as all previous updates to this dead product line). Microsoft managed to dupe another 4.5 million unsuspecting victims, sorry, customers, to buy Lumias. Thats down 22% in JUST ONE QUARTER. Lumia sales are literally down to half of what they were when the Microsoft sale was announced back in the 'good old days' of Nokia - and the market has grown 58% in the same period of time. So what is the market share you might ask? 1.1% is the current share (this with the amazing new Windows 10 Mobile, the amazing super OS update that solves all of Windows past problems!). For the full year Lumia sold 27.3 million units which gives Microsoft's ex-Nokia unit a market share of ... 1.9%. Who told you that the market share would be 2% this year? I think I might actually have used the words 'under 2%' haha... So yeah. 2016 projection - obviously under 1%. I said I expect Microsoft to shutter the Lumia smartphone unit and end the mobile side of the Windows OS by the end of this year or latest end of next year. I'm pretty well on track with that forecast haha..

Ok more numbers as they come in.

Comments

[Christoph]

Did I get this right that there is again no backwards compatibility from Windows Phone 8.1 apps to Windows 10 apps? How often did they break now backwards compatibility since the introduction of Windows Phone?

[Tester]

It'll be an interesting watch to see how long Microsoft is willing to prolong that misery.

In the tech press there's still that idiotic belief that they need a mobile OS to be present in mobile - but seriously: This is doing them more harm than good, and that's not just financially, because it makes them look outright incompetent. Of course we don't really know if the drop is because the market punished them or because the higher-ups are orchestrating a controlled wind-down of the business. These numbers are so bad, I'd more believe in the latter.

[Olivier Barthelemy]

Isn't MS's poor showing partly due to the Kaypro syndrome: new product announced, but not quite available = no sales of the old stuff, and no new stuff to sell ?

[abdul muis]

@Tomi

What do you think about XiaoMi WindowsPhone (Windows 10 Mobile) devices? Will it make any difference? and Why? Why would XiaoMi make Windows 10 Mobile device?

[Winter]

"In other markets like India the growth is still phenomnal (India this year for the first time becoming a larger smartphone market than the USA and second largest in the world)."

India smartphone sales 2015: 100M
installed base: 220M
Smartphone penetration: 30% (of ~750M potential)
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/hardware/india-smartphone-shipments-up-23-to-100-mn-units-in-2015/articleshow/50826689.cms

India iPhone sales: 1.7M and growing!
http://indianexpress.com/article/technology/tech-news-technology/apple-q1-results-india-revenue-up-38-per-cent-sales-by-76-percent/

India Android Smartphone sales: ~97M (?)

There is a lot of "growth potential" in every direction.

[Winter]

iPhone Sales Unlikely To Get Boost From India, Which Is No Apple-Obsessed China
http://www.ibtimes.com/iphone-sales-unlikely-get-boost-india-which-no-apple-obsessed-china-2282238

[abdul muis]

@Winter

China is NOT Apple-obsessed. They, once a communist, just becoming a materialistic, and Apple did a good job of marketing their product as a status symbol.

[Winter]

@abdul muis
"China is NOT Apple-obsessed."

I just replicated the title of the piece. It does not mean that I agree with everything in it. On the other hand, there are a lot of people in China (and elsewhere) that could have spend their money more wisely than buying an iPhone.
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/iphone-6s-chinese-men-try-to-sell-kidney-to-buy-new-handset-10501755.html

[chithanh]

@Christoph
> Did I get this right that there is again no backwards compatibility from Windows Phone 8.1 apps to Windows 10 apps?

Partially. It is like the move from WP7 to WP8, most old applications will still run, but if you want to use the new and exciting features you have to write your application specifically for the new platform. And of course, doing so will stop your app from running on the older operating system.

Mary Jo Foley reported recently that 2 million devices are now running Windows Mobile 10. You can imagine why developers are not exactly lining up to make Continuum apps.

@abdul muis
> Why would XiaoMi make Windows 10 Mobile device?

You mean the Xiaomi Mi4 for which Microsoft released a Windows image? Xiaomi didn't lift a finger, Microsoft did all the work.
When HTC released the M9 for Windows, there was still some minimal effort from HTC's side. Not any more.

[chithanh]

Oops. I meant of course the M8 for Windows.

[Tester]

@chithanh:

"You can imagine why developers are not exactly lining up to make Continuum apps."

Here's some fun stuff:

When talking about Continuum and its chances, the only people who actually seem to believe that this has a chance of success are - (gasp!) - Apple users!

My guess is that they do not know the mentality of Windows users and project their Mac/iOS attitudes onto Windows.
Fact is: Most Windows users hate the tile interface so much they don't even bother visiting the app store!

[NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS]

"it makes them look outright incompetent." -

NO they ARE incompetent. It simply exposes who they are!

microsoft Monopolist = Brain Dead.

And now everyone knows microsoft software is just crap! Even the blogs repeat this drum roll

"What matters now is that Microsoft’s effort with Windows Phone has been nothing short of an abject failure." at https://boxden.com/showthread.php?t=2314866

more at: http://www.weupit.com/sales-of-lumia-handsets-nosedive-to-4-5m-in-q4/25561/

BTW, more forecasts from the past. It's really fun reading how the so-called analysts at Gartner and IDC were astroturfing for microsoft. Of course Tomi is the only one who gets it correct!

http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2013/01/17/2013-roundup-of-mobility-forecasts-and-market-estimates/#1618593544c9

This is from only 3 years ago! Gartner and IDC are just embarrassing jokes. I hope people aren’t paying for this astroturfing crap disguised as analysis!

Hey astroturfers remember to yell while shopping: NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE EVEN A SURFACE PHONE!!!!! ....LoL!!!!!!

[NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS]

More fun reading:

"modern PCs are awful. Windows 8+, yes 10 included, are awful." at http://semiaccurate.com/2016/01/13/pc-sales-do-whaaat-they-crater-again/

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/205754/windows-phone-is-dead-whats-next-for-nadellas-microsoft

http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2016/02/the-fight-for-a-third-best-smartphone-os-has-been-lost-by-everyone/

microsoft seems to believe they can fool people and put the same crap out but call it a surface phone
"Microsoft Now Owns The Domain Name Surfacephone.com" at:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/amitchowdhry/2016/02/01/microsoft-monday-what-to-expect-when-windows-10-is-no-longer-free-cortana-improved-q2-results/2/#31d584671a2a

Hey astroturfers remember to yell when you get up in the morning: NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE ...EVEN A SURFACE PHONE!!!!! ....LoL!!!!!!

[abdul muis]

@chithanh

"You mean the Xiaomi Mi4 for which Microsoft released a Windows image? Xiaomi didn't lift a finger, Microsoft did all the work."

Mi4, MiPad2 & the upcoming Mi5.
(How about the MiPad2 & the upcomming Mi5??)

Some of the MiPad2 & the Mi5 will be sold as Windows device. So, even though Xiaomi didn't spend $$$ on development, they will spend support if there's trouble.

[chithanh]

@abdul muis
MiPad2 is not a Windows Mobile device, it is an Atom which will run regular Windows. Intel shoulders most of the work here, and even some of the cost (you may have read about contra-revenue).

About Mi5, not sure what will be the sales model. Is there going to be a separate SKU for Windows? I think it is likely that Microsoft did all the work again.

[Timo M.]

Meanwhile Stephen Elop found a new job! He is now in "the esteemed role of Distinguished Engineering Executive in Residence within McMaster University’s Faculty of Engineering". I could crack so many jokes I won't even bother.

[E.Casais]

@Timo M.

The press release is here: http://www.eng.mcmaster.ca/news/2016/elop_advisory_role.html.

For those who know about his career, it reads like an article from the Onion.

[abdul muis]

I really want to hear Tomi words on this :)

[John A]

I saw this interview:

AOL chief: Mobile will be 'the most important revolution in our lifetime'
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/generalmoney/aol-chief-mobile-will-be-the-most-important-revolution-in-our-lifetime/vi-AAgs4C4

And I think it say why Microsoft must stay in mobile in some way even at the current low marketshare.. at their own with Windows 10 mobile or as a plan c with Cyanogen OS (partnership) or some other drastic solution.

Apple got Os X, ios and a broad range for desktop,tablet, mobile and wearables. So a complete eco system for those people that using Apple Products.
Same with Google. And it not so long before Chrome OS and Android will merge togheter.

So if Microsoft say we will just stay on the "old PC market" I think they are doomed. Younger people that growing up with Android probably go for a combined Chrome OS/Android PC later in Life. Same with the Apple customers, they will go for some kind of Mac PC.

I suppose Microsft could survive like a sort of new IBM with big datacenters etc..But at the end of the day if they failure with mobile, tablets they are screwed in the consumerspace very soon. So it will be interesting to see what Satya Nadella will do.

[Wayne Borean]

John A has hit the point on the head. Microsoft has to remain in mobile somehow. Otherwise the company soon won't exist.

A large share of younger users don't own computers, they own smartphones. For those younger users, aka The Future, there just isn't any mindshare for Mocrosoft. They don't use Windows, because they don't use Personal Computers with Windows pre-installed.

Microsoft has made money using the Monopoly business model since the introduction of MS-DOS. Without the Monopoly business model, Microsoft is not competitive. Since Microsoft was never able to gain a monopoly position in the Mobile, Tablet, and Game Machine markets, Microsoft has never been able to make the profit levels that the company appears to. regard as necessary.