Ladies and Gentlemen! We have finally discovered our Dragon-Slayer. Yes, Rubio was effective and funny, but Cruz came loaded for bear.

That is what I call a debate. Yes, it did descend into chaos with three fighters talking all over each other but mostly Wolf Blitzer achieved a Herculean effort to keep this chaos in control. Winner Cruz clearly. Strong performance by Rubio as well. Trump is now bleeding but not because he had a bad debate - he did quite well and mostly kept his cool. Its just that Trump is such a flawed candidate, that when expert debaters attack him all day, he will bleed like few have bled after a debate. Yet inspite of that, he will not see much of a loss in support. I think today however, the ceiling came crashing upon Trump’s head. His national polling will not grow past this. Too much of the damage has now been exposed. But equally, Trump has such fiercely loyal and reality-denial followers, that his support will not leak dramatically. Some points down, yes. I think the Republican establishment has now seen their dream ticket, Cruz on top and Rubio as VP. If Cruz can do this to Trump, he is clearly the only one with a real chance in a debate against Hillary. And for once, the irrelevant pair did not lecture the room about being nice and not engaging on the issues. The sooner they have quit the better it is for the remainder of the election cycle. So lets do the grading.

Cruz - A. Ted Cruz hit this one out of the park. Almost flawless debate masterclass by a master debater. A very wide array of methods of attack. The only one to date that got clearly the better of Trump head-on, a very varied range of topics on which to strike Trump. Enough spare power to also hit Rubio occasionally and to advance his own agenda and abilities, plus mention Hillary and Obama occasionally as well. Cruz was in a great mood, just about perfect balance of intentional needling but still appearing serious and mature. He was obviously enjoying himself.

For those into debate technique, Cruz showed us two successful traps, where he goaded Trump to take a position, then Cruz had the killer hit to follow after Trump had just committed to a position. Perfectly executed twice, I sense he tried it a third time but that fizzled. Trump was utterly unaware of what was going on until he had been caught by Cruz. The trap on  Trump making deals was one with several impacts that cut Trump deeply. Cruz got Trump to take pride in doing deals: that is what he does, then slam him on it. But not just once, Cruz hit Trump that he’ll make deals to the damage of policies, then also that Trump will do those deals with the Democrats to put a moderate on the Supreme Court and finally on Israel. Bravo Ted. That was a Jedi move. For anyone who sees Hillary for what she is - a master debater - and thus a huge threat in the Autumn, and who may sorely miss Chris Christie (or the early Carly Fiorina) has now finally seen, that Cruz yes is worthy of his reputation. Why were you hiding this Ted? Excellent performance which I grade as a pure A.

Rubio - A-. Marco Rubio had a great night too. He had I believe the most popular line, and to me it seemed genuine spotaneous moment rather than planned prepared attack  - when Rubio jumped on Trump saying look, he’s repeating himself.. five times! Yes we can sense the remnants of Rubio’s wounded pride out of the debate just before New Hampshire when Robo-Rubio was revealed but now he had his delightful rebuttal - look, Trump is now the Robodon. Rubio was at his happiest of any debate after that moment and the delight was infectuous.

Rubio was stronger in the earlier part of the debate, he kept a very upbeat positive overall composure but hit Trump hard many times. At times the Cruz-Rubio duo did seem like they had held a tag-team practise, when one didn’t quite damage Trump, the other followed suit and delivered new strikes from a different point of view, again hitting Trump. Rubio was enjoying the gimmick of inviting viewers to go Google things Trump said were not true, giving the search terms and then telling Trump that Twitter is now abuzz with those topics. Towards the end when Cruz was getting only stronger, Rubio faded a bit. I think he was intimidated by the triple-shouting-matches with Trump where Cruz was not. Also Rubio seemed to take it more personally when his own words were thrown at him and he had to defend a flip-flop. Trump and Cruz both sailed easily past those moments knowing they were coming and being prepared for it. So while Rubio had a great night, it wasn’t quite perfect, so I give him the grade of A-.

Trump B. Donald Trump didn’t have a bad night, he was close to losing his cool but he did hold it in, working visibly hard at controlling himself. He was quick to counter-attack but some of his responses were now visibly school-yard nonsense in scale, as pointed out by Cruz and Rubio exactly by his side. He hadn’t experienced this yet where both on his sides attacked him relentlessly all through the debate. Trump still held his ground like a trooper and gave about as hard as he took. I think in the dual matchups, Trump was slightly better than Rubio but then clearly lesser of Cruz. Still, Trump did a very good job, he has a very quick mind, he’s memorized so many effective hits on his main rivals, he is able to think on his feet and while clearly not as well prepared as the others, Trump makes up with it partly by playing the crowd and partly by throwing the others off their balance by speaking over their timing.

Trump suffered severely, however, because this was the first time that ‘the whole story’ was coming out (from a Republican voter’s perspective, even more would be available once it becomes him against Hillary). So while as a debater, he fought back quite well (not well enough, as both Cruz and Rubio were in top form, too much fire from both sides) but the damage to Trump is that the issues are very damaging and were delivered incredibly well. What threw Trump off his game was how much the audience reacted negatively to him. That argument he used before, that its paid lobbyists wasn’t fresh and clever anymore. And Cruz and Rubio were no easy pushovers in clash, like Jeb and Rand. Trump is taking this debating stuff seriously and the effort he put into not taking the bait to lose it on stage was palpable. But even a master debater, if centered by two great speakers in top form that night, hitting contiuously, would leave the stage bruised. Trump was bleeding (from his eyes, and his whatever). But as a debater, he did not fold, I grade him with a B.

Kasich C. John Kasich did his adult in the room schtick. At this point when the audience tasted blood and the stakes were raised with the Supreme Court in play and Israel, and the prospect of sending someone to face Hillary, Kasich is finished as a serious choice. A VP candidate why not but not the guy to be on the top of the ticket. Once the Republican voters were given taste of blood, they now want the Dragonslayer. Sorry Kasich this was not destined to be your year. Please quit immediately after you fail to win any states on March 1. Kasich made a passable effort, I grade him a C.

Carson D. Again Dr Ben Carson didn’t have a career-ending flop but he is totally outclassed and a waste of time to be on that stage. Next debate it should be only the top 3. Carson is barely passing grade at D.

One way to see who is winning and who is losing a debate is to see who is enjoying it and who is suffering. Trump was suffering. Carson and Kasich were frustrated. Rubio and Cruz were clearly enjoing it.

If the second debate had seen Cruz and Rubio in this form, and do only half of the attacks they landed on Trump today - Trump would have been kicked out of the race by now. Then the full story of how he is a closet Democrat and indeed a liberal progressive Socialist one at that - would have prevented so many voters to be taken in by his con artist ploy. Remember the first debate was kind of shadow-boxing but in the second debate several meek attempts were made at Trump from Fiorina to Jeb to Rand to Christie. But Cruz stayed totally out of it and Rubio was only half-heartedly joining. And yet Trump was severely upset and clearly damaged. If Cruz and Rubio had taken that chance seriously, Trump would have quit well before Iowa because he’d have been running somewhere around 5th place at best.

Woulda coulda shoulda. Yeah, now its too late to stop Trump. What Rubio and Cruz can hope to do, is to bleed Trump down so much he might be in the 20s by March 15 when winner-take-all states start, and then, there is a serious chance for one - and an outside chance for both - to pass Trump in delegates. Right now March 1 seems to me, to still mean Trump wins more states than Rubio or Cruz. But this debate should get Cruz to win more than just his home state of Texas (and certainly locked that vote now). Rubio should also do better and pick up something, a state or two. Then the story about Trump is that he is still vulnerable and this can be a race. Had the two Senators punted again today, Trump could sweep the SEC Primary states on March 1 and the race would have been practically over. Both Rubio and Cruz knew what was on the line, it was a do-or-die moment and both survived. Equally Kasich and Carson were not willing to go into the gutter to fight with Trump and they will now exit the race (after March 1 votes are counted).

What a fabulous debate. Honest real clash on real issues between the top 3 candidates. The moderators seemed to have stacked the deck to take on Trump but as Rubio and Cruz were both willing to also go there, that didn’t seem excessive of too biased (it did seem a bit biased yes). Wolf Blitzer inserted him strongly into some moments to end the bickering but he also lost control many times. Of all moderators he had the toughest debate so far, and I cannot fault him. Of the three panelists only CNN’s Dana Bash seemed somewhat intimidated and didn’t handle her parts too well, the others were strong.

Who wins and who loses? Trump’s base will ignore this, it was clearly a set-up and hit-job and they will only rally even more around their luvable racist. I think Trump’s growth will end, he has now seen peak Trump and it will be down hill (in terms of average of national polling via RCP) from here but not below 20% and Trump’s floor could be as high as 25%. And he will fight feverishly to hold onto as much of that support as he can. Still, the damage now has been done and too many intelligent voters see Trump for what he is, and his massive fraud as a ‘conservative’ candidate for the Republican party has been exposed. That is healthy but it probably came too late. Trump is still the front-runner to win the whole nomination race.

Cruz is the big winner, he should now climb to well above the 20% level nationally and could be hitting low 30s. The conservative Southern religious states that Cruz had targeted for March 1 now become viable for him (apart from Texas) and he should pick up several of those but often with very thin margins. He’ll also lose the rest to Trump with only modest margins meaning Cruz will do well in the delegate hunt at this time when delegates are awarded proportionately.

Rubio also had a good night and will see gains. I expect very loud pleading for Kasich to drop out but thats too late for Tuesday. He will drop out on Wednesday I predict, after disasterously bad showing. Carson, another dead man. What I can’t wait for now, is that next Fox debate when we see Megyn Kelly vs Trump 2.0 - now with the echoes of both Rubio and Cruz hitting Trump from both sides. Then Trump will seriously feel like he is fighting a three-way war.

Comments

[oibur]

Really, really funny debate. I was laughing quite a lot while watching it!

[oibur]

The DrudgeReport polls shows Trump as winner in the debate but I guess that DrudgeReport attracts Trump's fans.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi oibur

Gosh me too, at times laughed out loud. Oh, and the Twitter commentary has many truly golden nuggets, go check out them for more laughs. Of Drudge, no, online polls cannot get an accurate measure because Trump's total fanbase utterly crushes the other rivals (thanks to his massive reality TV fan base) so he always wins all online polls (and Twitter polls). We have to wait for independent professional polling of who won the debate, or better, the next national polling to see who moved up or down. Also any of the SEC primaries could be now taken with a snapshot of the polling effective today (ie polled before the debate) and contrasted to the actual vote on Tuesday - another way to measure who actually won or lost today.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Winter]

"Then the full story of how he is a closet Democrat and indeed a liberal progressive Socialist one at that"

But that is at the center of the populist's policies. The supporters of every populist I have ever seen demand welfare. They just do not want others to get welfare too.

I think Trump's supporters are in it because they know he will protect "their" jobs and "their" income.

But beyond this basic support group, and maybe some democratic voters, the very same policies will drive away the other "real" conservatives.

[digital]

Trump stumbled early but he wiped the floor with them at the end.

When will you discuss Hillary Clinton's weak performance? I know she's winning but not by as much as she should be.

[Winter]

@digital
"Trump stumbled early but he wiped the floor with them at the end."

It seems you need quite rosy glasses to come to that conclusion:

Donald Trump's Terrible Night
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/republican-debate-houston/471120/

[tz]

Cruz has abandoned Alabama because Trump is about to beat him in Texas, his home state. They both poll in the mid-30's
Texas is winner take all if you get 51%, but Cruz won't get there.
The worst/best you can hope for is a brokered convention.
Also, to even be put in nomination, you need 51% delegates in 8 states (Mitt Romney wanted this after Ron Paul's insurgency). Trump has one, SC. I don't see anyone but Trump qualifying.
Oh, and how is Ted Cruz' version of Narwhal working out for him? Instead of the inane and wrong analysis, maybe you could discuss this.

[Pekka]

Think you absolutely wrong. From watching news and frank luntz focus group. Rubio won the debate, trump weak second (rest deadlast). But it won't matter, debates have rarely any affect unless you get a knockout punch like christie got on rubio or carly did to trump in second debate.

Frank luntz focus group showed 3 voters changed there mind.

[Catriona]

Cruz has always been a good debater, but demographics are working against him. He can't win up north, and Trump may be too far ahead in the March 1 primaries. The best unity ticket would be Rubio-Cruz, but Cruz would actually be better for SCOTUS. He'd be a perfect replacement for Scalia. That said, Rubio could prep for debates in the general election by debating Cruz in private.

As for the general election, the candidate who has no substance is the "inevitable" Democratic nominee. She's been handed everything in her life, and has accomplished nothing. She's all talk and no action. The sooner the American public realize this, the better. Otherwise we'll start looking back fondly on the Obama years for the civil discourse.

[Wayne Borean]

Interesting. I watched this debate, and I rated Cruz, Rubio, and Trump all a B, with Carson and Kasich both a C. Sure, each of the three front runners got some good hits in, but no one was really damaged.

I don't think that the debate will have any impact on polling either, except for Carson and Kasich. Some of their supporters may look at the situation, and decide to change horses.

There were several 'missed opportunities' to land blows. In my opinion none of them would have made a difference.

[Wayne Borean]

@Catriona,

Cruz would be unlikely to be confirmed to the Supreme Court since he has no experience as a judge.

[Winter]

@Catriona
"She's been handed everything in her life, and has accomplished nothing."

Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgment.
Mario Puzo, The Godfather

@Catriona
"Otherwise we'll start looking back fondly on the Obama years for the civil discourse."

I think Tomi already predicted that after Hillary is elected, the GOP and other Obama demonisers will wish they had a president like Obama again.

But as the bible says, "sow the wind, reap the whirlwind". Whatever the GOP and its supporters harvest, they have sown the seeds themselves.

[deadonthefloor]

Bernie.
All of this GOP nonsense makes America look foolish on the world stage.

[Wayne Borean]

One thing we all need to remember is that even a total jerk could make a good president. A lot of people think [/INSERT CANDIDATE NAME HERE] is a jerk. This might be true.

That doesn't mean they wouldn't do a good job.

I have concerns about certain candidates because they seem to be representing the interests of a very small part of the electorate. That would be far more of a problem in my opinion, than Mr. or Ms. Jerk becoming president.

I didn't name the possible jerks because I wanted to get the concept across without starring a fight over which candidate is the worst jerk. They have all had 'jerk' moments. It is part of being human.

[Catriona]

Chris Christie just endorsed Donald Trump.

[Catriona]

@Winter, what has Hillary accomplished? She was a "rainmaker" at a law firm, which basically means she sold her husband's influence as governor. Bill put her in charge of reforming health care in 1993. How did that work out? I already told you about her "accomplishments" as senator (she renamed a post office). Other than rack up frequent flier miles and store classified material on a private e-mail server, what did she accomplish as Secretary of State?

[Millard Filmore]

@deadonthefloor: "All of this GOP nonsense makes America look foolish on the world stage."

It gets worse. There is no need to limit your incredulity to politicians. It is impossible for Ted Cruz to be the Zodiac Killer (a serial killer in California since before Cruz was born), yet a poll shows 40% in Florida are not sure.

http://www.addictinginfo.org/2016/02/26/40-of-floridians-believe-this-republican-candidate-may-be-a-serial-killer/

As the Firesign Theater once said: We are all Bozos on this bus.

[Wayne Borean]

Love Discovery Channel. They do some neat reporting, like this little wonder...

http://news.discovery.com/human/evolution/caveman-instincts-may-favor-deep-voiced-politicians-150807.htm

[cornelius]

@Wayne

Makes sense. That explains why the conservative politicians talk out of their posteriors.

[Catriona]

So is all the rage among progressives because Trump is able to attract the low-information voters who usually vote for Democrats instead?