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« LG Final Number for 2015 was 59.7 Million, gives them 6th or 7th ranking in Top 10 | Main | Chillax! Apple Is NOT Crashing. iPhone has best loyalty of any phone with massive sales and highest prices »

January 26, 2016



The larger question next quarter is what will the market as a whole do. Apple's revenue forecast of $50-53 billion vs. last year's $58 billion suggest a decline in its unit sales, but about half that is the strong dollar. My guess is that Apple's market share will stay flat as the market shrinks. Granted, the "smartphone" market may "grow" as the last of the feature phones get phased out in emerging markets, so I think the more important metric now is share of the total phone market.


Interestingly, Apple's ASP rose to $691 from $687 in the prior year. That suggests that the 6S/6S Plus is selling at about the same rate as the 6 did last year. I'm sure Apple will get a question about inventory, though.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Catriona

I think iPhone is now going to flatline in unit sales (not market share) and as the smartphone market grows, it means necessarily declining market share (among smartphones). Also total handset market is still growing while very slowly so if iPhone unit sales do not pass 231.4 million again for 2016 as they did in 2015, then also the total phone market share would turn to decline (for first time).

It becomes quite urgent for Apple to rush the smaller-screen C model(s) out - some gossip calling it the iPhone 5 SE - and there are expectations of a Spring launch for the cheaper models. Depending on when they launch and more importantly, how much cheaper than the flagship 6S models, that is the key now to can Apple again grow unit sales in 2016. But yes, the guidance seems to suggest this January quarter iPhone sales will not match the same quarter last year, so the year 2016 would start with unit sales down vs 2015.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Catriona

PS haha, a possible remake of the 'lost opportunity' battle of last year, rumors saying Samsung will return with microSD card support and waterproofing to Galaxy flagship and obviously Sony returned to 'logical' naming on Xperia Z series, we might see more of a challenge to Apple ie making the race even tougher now, in the Spring of 2016, for Apple. And obviously no, Apple is not in any sort of 'trouble' haha...

Tomi Ahonen :-)


@Tomi, interestingly, Apple said FX had a $49 impact on its ASP. So they are still selling high end devices quite well. They also said that the March YoY would be the most "challenging," which to me means that they will launch the 6C/5SE in March or April. There are conflicting rumors about whether it will have an A8 or A9. If it's the A9, and priced at $450 (or $500-$550 in anticipation of a price drop to $450 after the iPhone 7 launch), it could sell very well. I'm guessing that if it is $450 at launch it will have the A8, and that if it has the A9 it will start at $500-$550.

Tim Cook just said that iPhone units will decline in the quarter, but not by the 15-20% suggested by an analyst. I think they sold 51 million in the March quarter last year, so that probably means they will sell around 45-48 million.


Actually, Apple sold 61.2 million iPhones in the March 2015 quarter. So I'm guessing that the current quarter will be around 55-57 million.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Catriona

Yeah, seems reasonable numbers. Also you probably noticed, I did my 'sky is not falling' Apple totally rules this industry, blog... gosh gotta do that every few years and the 'Apple will not take over the world' blog almost every alternate year haha... But yeah, Apple will settle into the 200M - 250M unit annual sales level for next decade.

Tomi Ahonen :-)



asp gone up but is that because of their high end or because their low end has gone up. I think it is the latter because last year the cheapest iphone was slightly above €300 and now it is above €400

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