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« Lots More Detail About Narwhal 'Big Data' Machine Performance in Obama 2012 Campaign - Including several use cases and applications (vs Orca the Romney machine) | Main | All The Mobile Numbers You Ever Wanted (but were afraid to ask) - The big mobile stats blog for 2015 is finally here »

December 25, 2015


Wayne Borean

Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukah, Happy Kwanza to all!

Now, as to the article,


Your numbers look plausible. Very plausible. My comments are:

1) Rand Paul as a Moderate? Shocking. But true compared to most of the field.
2) Fiorina has been toast since she announced, even if she did poll well enough to get to the adult table.
3) I am surprised that Huckabee didn't do better. Very surprised.
4) Pataki has been toast since he announced. Makes you wonder why he even bothered.
5) I don't think Jeb will drop out. My guess is that he'll be pushed by people inside the party to hang on, as the 'Establishment' candidate. But that is just a guess. I can't see the 'Estbalishment' wanting to back Rubio, Fiorina, or Paul. Christie? If they have no choice, he's about as Establishment as Senator Leia Organa...
6) Cruz has issues. He won't play well I'm delegate heavy states like California (though I know a lot of Texans who think he is the real deal). But that comes later in the season.
7) I don't think that Ben Carson will drop out that quickly. No evidence, just a tremor in the Force.

I'm still thinking this over. I'll be back later. I want to let my supper settle, and I'm going to dose up on some heavy painkillers. My leg hurts so damned bad right now, I'm seriously considering borrowing the neighbor's chainsaw to do an emergency amputation.

Wayne Borean

Doonsebury on Trump

Hubert Lamontagne

Trump has only passed 2 of Nate Silver's "Donald Trump's Six Stages Of Doom"

Stage 1 : Free for all (passed)
Stage 2 : Heightened scrutiny (passed)
Stage 3 : Iowa and New Hampshire (Trump could underperform; NH is very liberal)
Stage 4 : Winnowing (some moderates drop out, remaining ones can outperform Trump)
Stage 5 : Delegate accumulation (no superdelegates; other candidates better organized)
Stage 6 : Endgame (party does everything it can to stop Trump)

Wayne Borean


Stages 3 and 4 will be interesting. Underestimating Trump is what got the GOP in this situation, and I see no proof that they've stopped. If he passes 3 and 4, I see rampant panic setting in.

My personal feeling is that he will pass 3 and 4. Not without a few scars, and not without new Trumpisms, but he will pass.

Then the fun begins. We could see attempts to resurrect Mit Romney. Or maybe even Dick Cheney. Who knows.

Investing in popcorn futures is recommended.

Wayne Borean

Democratic candidates say nice things about George W. Bush. Republican candidates are silent.


@Wayne Borean
The Tea Party is tribalist. Trump panders to tribalism.

Want to know what tribalism does with christians? Look at the break up of Yogoslavia. That is, christian tribalism is indistinguishable from Islamic or any other tribalism.


GW Bush was a Moron, but not a tribalist.

By ising GW's words against the GOP candidates, the Democrats are using classical Divide and Conquer tactics against the GOP candidates. Setting Hillary up as a better for the unity of the USA than Trump or Cruz.

Wayne Borean


The Tea Party isn't Tribalist, it is Nativist, and they aren't even Natives.


Another link - mentions the Cruz data operation, unfortunately no details.


@Wayne Borean
But how do you become a member of a Tribe? You are borne into a tribe. And what is the difference with "nativist"?

For the rest if it walks like a duck.... I do not see any real difference between nativists and tribalists.


I refreshed my memmory about nativism and found this pearl from Australia'nativism'-will-help-us-conquer-it/6974758

Behind the horrible link below is a very clear essay on the historical roots of US nativism. Most of the time, Jews and Catholics played the role Muslims and Hispanics have now.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Wayne, Hubert and Winter

Sorry was very busy relating to getting the Almanac 2015 edition out while we still had days left in the year haha, I don't want to become like Microsoft when the annual edition shifts after the year has ended :-)

So yeah, for those interested in mobile numbers, this will be the stats week. But thanks for comments here, I will also discuss US politics with you guys of course.

Wayne - Rand Paul 'moderate' haha agree, but in this field and by some of his views (also vs a Tea Party crazed party overall) its true-ish.. Fiorina I agree lost her chance but she has nothing else she could be doing - nobody is gonna give her another CEO job, so she might as well continue. Being the only woman gets her a voice and as long as some debate opportunity continues (kids table) then she can always have her 'moment'. What would help her however is a thinning of the field. After New Hampshire several moderates will drop out and those who remain, would pick up some support, which could get her to around 5% or so, to race chasing Christie and ahead of Jeb. But as a politician she's a one-trick pony, only good on TV debates (with her own invented facts too).

On Huckabee I feel the same way. I thought he would be strong for Iowa and the Religious South. Ben Carson initially stole his voters and then they fell in love with Ted Cruz. Weird how Huckabee wasn't able to win them over. Santorum I think was always gonna lose to Huckabee, so he was no real challenge. On Jeb... he has the money to keep going, but I get the feeling he's doing it out of 'obligation' as a kind of promise to his mom and dad, because THEY wanted two Presidents as sons. He - Jeb - isn't at all cut out to run and isn't doing it well and doesn't display any passion for wanting it (for himself). Even W Bush seemed wanted it. Listen to Jeb, at times he speaks of a kind of 'our' mission as does also creepily, W Bush now. As if its their family mission. So if Jeb doesn't really want it, he's never gonna succceed. And the big donors have to see this and see its a hopeless cause, so why throw good money after bad. They will ask him to quit and to funnel the SuperPAC money to good Republican (and moderate) causes instead and/or attack ads against Ted/Trump.

I also agree that Cruz has issues and I think he won't play well at all in any moderate or blue states. He can only do well in very red states. Haha on Carson staying in.. lets see if the Force is strong in you :-). Doonesbury was brilliant.

Hubert - thanks for good analysis via Nate Silver. I think that heightened scrutiny side is still going on, so many thought he's a clown candidate they didn't bother to take him seriously. Early Trump supporters are so mad they won't care about any reality but those who joined that bandwagon later, I think they'll be more vulnerable to truths about Trump. And he's an incredibly flawed candidate in so many ways. But I do agree with Nate's analysis and the next actual voting stage will be the next test. I do think some of Trump's support is either soft or by very unreliable voters, so when the actual election happens, he will not do as well as recent polls suggested. That being said, he is polling so far above all others in most states except Iowa - that Trump can AFFORD to lose 5 or 10 points and still easily win haha..

Wayne - on rampant panic. If Trump does win NH, gosh yes, rampant panic will be the standard establishment response including all moderate sitting Congressmen and all those sitting GOP Senators who have a re-election coming in 2016. And resurrect Romney or Dick Cheney, yeah, and Paul Ryan will also be begged to 'save the party' and do this sacrifice..

Ok more replies coming, do keep the discussion going

Tomi Ahonen :-)


Scott Adams has some interesting obsevations on Trump analysing him as a skilled master persuader:

Tomi T Ahonen

To all in the thread

So yeah.. Pataki officially out. Now its down to 12 remaining GOP rivals. Oh, and O'Malley had an event where only 1 audience member showed up, and after that event, that one Democratic voter is still 'undecided' ... talk about a campaign not having the luck.

Tomi Ahonen :-)


Here is another analysis supporting Tomi's analysis and explaining the unsurmountable problems facing a Republican candidate:

Republicans come up short in search for diverse voters in 2016 election

The percentage of Republicans among those likely to vote in the Nov. 8, 2016, election lags Democrats by 9 percentage points, compared with a 6-point deficit in the year leading up to Obama's 2012 victory, according to an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polling data from 2012 and 2015.

While the American electorate has become more diverse the last three years, the party's support among Hispanic likely voters and younger likely voters has shrunk significantly.

- Among whites under 40, the shift is even more dramatic. In 2012, they were more likely to identify with the Republican Party by about 5 percentage points. In 2015, the advantage flipped: Young whites are now more likely to identify with the Democratic Party by about 8 percentage points.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

(Thanks Winter, I was going to mention that item of the shifts among various demographics which is a gain of 3 points to Democrats vs 2012)

There is very interesting table at 538 blog showing the Iowa ground game in very sharp detail. Each candidate not just travel days, but number of events, the number of field offices, and the number of paid staff.

So in days spent and events held in Iowa, on GOP side its what we knew, Santorum and Huckabee have camped there and toured the state (to nearly zero gain in Iowa polling). On the Democratic side its been O'Malley. Bernie & Hillary both have spent a good amount of time in Iowa, Bernie more, but on the Republican side, Trump has had very little time and events.

But how about the paid staffing. That gets interesting (and I didn't have that data when I wrote my analysis here, earlier). GOP most paid staff in Iowa.. is Trump (??? !!! possible upset in the making?) Trump has 16 paid staffers. Huckabee second with 13 and Bush third with 10. Rand Paul has 9, Ted Cruz has 8. So Trump's staffing advantage is huge and the two three nearest to him are not going to do well in Iowa anyway. So compared to Cruz, Trump has 2 to 1 advantage in staff. Could be perhaps an upset in the making. And/or Trump might surge still in Iowa as he now promises to also turn on his TV ad budget. But paid staff... this much more than any campaigns who clearly are investing in Iowa? Yes, Trump seems very serious in the run, doesn't he?

PS on the Democratic side O'Malley has 40 staff (really? Yes really. 40 !! for someone who polls nationally at 3%) And Bernie has 49. So if we ignore O'Malley just because this makes the math more fun, but take Bernie and ALL REPUBLICANS combined, all of them, their paid staff is 129. Hillary? Has 114 paid staff in Iowa. You think she's serious about winning and also already working this staff to ensure she has the 'Narwhal 2.0' Big Data operation built for the general election? Haha.. 114 paid staff? I'd say its pretty safe to say Hillary isn't losing Iowa this time..

Then in the failing campaigns news - Ben Carson seeing staff quit ahead of his restructuring/savings coming. And Jeb Bush is again resetting his campaign now going from TV ads to ground game. Jeb is so dead.

Happy New Year to all and this will be.. for us political junkies.. a Presidential Election year... the best kind of year for us who can't get enough of the intrigue :-)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Sorry I forgot..

Nevada has its first poll since October, by Gravis. Trump 33%, Cruz 20%, Rubio 11%, Carson 6%, Christie 5%, Fiorina 5%, Jeb 5%, others !% or below. (13% undecided). So its actually quite close to what I used in the model.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean

Trump is doing an incredible job, without huge expenses so far. If he starts spending money, Cruz could be in deep trouble.

A Happy New Year to all, will look forward to discussing politics with you next year!

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Wayne

Oh no, not next year. I hope to discuss politics THIS year (we are already in 2016, here in Asia, haha..)

just kidding, happy New Year to you too!

Tomi Ahonen :-)


This year AND next year ;-)

Happy New Year to all.

Stephen Reed

Another great blog post! I especially liked your model and your objective treatment of Trump.

Mr. Trump has apparently figured out that if he wins Iowa, he will win all the remaining states - which explains his investment in paid staff there. He says that he is making a $2 million per week advertising buy starting this month in the early voting states "to not take any chances" even as his current frugal strategy is evidently working.

As a Trump partisan, I hope Ben Carson reverses his precipitous decline in Iowa enough to give Trump a clear victory.

Regarding Texas, I have only been contacted a single time in early December by the Trump campaign to qualify my volunteer capabilities - data entry. My monthly donations have been rewarded by a nice email newsletter from the campaign.

In USA social media, there is only a single media blog which is all-in for Trump - In stark contrast, the large number of conservative political media blog sites favor Cruz or anyone but Trump because Trump has certain non-conservative positions such as continuing universal healthcare, protectionist trade policies, and preserving old age benefits.

Since my last comment posted here, Mr. Trump has raised the issue of former president Bill Clinton's abusive behavior towards women as a means of negating his usefulness as a campaign surrogate for Hillary Clinton.

Like others here, I eagerly await polls in Iowa to see how voting preferences firm up.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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