Like just about all who write about US politics, I too have been bewildered about Dr Ben Carson more than anything else this election cycle. Yes, Donald Trump has surprised us too in many weird ways but Dr Carson has been even more baffling. What I would summarize to say is that Trump seemed to be the new ‘Teflon Don’ where nothing he did that should destroy a campaign seemed to hurt him at all, now after 4 months of the ‘summer of Trump’ we can see that there was effect, it was only more delayed and far more muted than for most normal candidates in most years. This stems to large degree from Trump’s utterly unprecedented media coverage as he is, a reality TV media master. Trump has used his media skills to avoid the harm that his uncontrolled mouth would do on a regular basis and what would have devastated any other traditional candidate. Fine, most pundits have also figured out Trump by now. But not Dr Ben Carson.
Dr Ben Carson is the ultimate mystery hidden inside a riddle, wrapped inside an enigma. His political views are more Nazi than even Scott Walker. I am too young to remember Barry Goldwater’s campaign but as far as I can see, Carson is the most extreme right wing candidate who has led the national polls the nation has seen in literally 50 years. Dr Carson isn’t baffling us with brilliance, his reasoning is more absurd than that of Michelle Bachmann. And Carson isn’t sweet-talking us into loving him with rhetoric either, not like Ronald Reagan or on the left, Barack Obama of 2008. No, Carson’s speech is more convoluted than that of Sarah Palin. The moment most of the experts and pundits heard what Carson was saying when the campaign started, and in every debate since, they shake their heads and then out come the polls - Carson is up? How can this be? Its a constant litany of nosense from Obamcare is akin to slavery (this from a black man!) to being gay is voluntary (this from a MEDICAL doctor) to now, gosh, Egyptians built the pyramids to be grain storage? If you read his speeches without knowing who said it, you would say this person is not just certifyably mad, this must be a person already locked in a mental institution.
When previous candidates for President were exposed early on as loonies - for example haha, Michelle Bachmann - their candidacy imploded and they were quickly off the stage. That is good, that is how the system is supposed to work. The race to become US President is justifyably a marathon of hurdles and ever more intense tests before you get to hold the office of the most powerful person in the free world and with the finger on the button that can literally wipe out all human life on the planet. You don’t want a crazy person in that office. But now, how can Dr Carson say all those dumb things, time and again, and keep CLIMBING in the polls. Right now, the Real Clear Politics average has Carson essentially tied with Trump for first place both having about 25% of the Republican vote. So one in four Republicans want Carson as their President. But the latest polling of second choice, means that if Repblicans are asked how is your first choice, or your second choice for President, Carson is the only one who gets more than half of Republicans. Yes, more than half of Republicans would be very happy that the Pyramids were built for grain storage idiot was their President. He clearly leads this race now, when first and second choices are added together. And we have already had 3 debates on the Republican side, so its not like his lunacy is some kind of hidden secret.
So like I wrote many times on this blog, the one thing I most did not understand was the popularity of Dr Ben Carson. Why is he still rising in the polls. And so, the curious guy that I am, with tons of time on airplane flights, I have been reading up on Dr Ben. And I think I have now figured it out. And nobody else so far, has given this full view to his popularity - but several of the individual points I make, have been expressed by other pundits already. And to explain the full ‘Cult of Carson’ hypothesis, I will need a lot of analysis, examples and analogies. So lets start with the first:
THE BALLAD OF SARAH PALIN
Like Dr Ben Carson now, to most political writers, Sarah Palin in 2008 appeared out of nowhere. Like Carson now, in 2008 Sarah Palin was a darling of the extreme right wing who knew of her and admired her. Like Carson now, in 2008 Sarah Palin communicated in a peculiar ‘radical’ unconventional or even ‘maverick’ ways. With Sarah it was a bombastic style breaking conventional expectations, she the ‘hockey mom’ but while her style was a break from most politicians at the time, today we could see Trump doing a lot of ‘Sarah Palin style’ in his speeches. Dr Carson for today, is equally radical departure, with his eyes closed, speaking in low volume monotones, at speeds so slow, you think he’s speaking to a braindamaged child (he is a brain surgeon, some of his patients would be braindamaged) So Palin’s style was a break with norms in 2008, Carson’s is equally so today when Palin has an imitator in Trump. Like Dr Carson now, in 2008 Sarah Palin refused to be politically correct. Like Carson now, in 2008 Palin preached about bias in mainstream media and ‘gotcha’ questions. Like Carson now, in 2008 Palin was utterly ill-prepared for the Presidential runs. Like Carson now, in 2008 Palin was politically naive. Yet like Carson now, Palin back then commanded huge support in the conservative base of the Republican party.
But unlike Carson now, in 2008 Sarah Palin was a mental midget. Her rambling speeches and disjointed answers to questions were a real indication of lack of mental ability to deal with the complexities the job of President required. I don’t think Carson is dumb. But Carson’s incoherent speeches in the debates and his mysterious responses to press questions illustrate rather, a sharp mind who was never before questioned or countered, for truly mad positions. So the one big difference between the two, I would say, is that Carson is far sharper as a mind than Palin but Carson comes across (currently, to us in the general population) as equally wacky as ole’ Sarah of Palin.
So the parallels between the two are very strong and striking. This means we can do the first illustrative analogy that will serve us well to understand the Dr Carson phenomenon, or as I now think of it, as the Carson Cult. So lets do the sad Ballad of Sarah Palin.
I will start at the end. At the start of this year, 2015, there were many calls for various Republican politicians to run to become President and we’ve seen the largest field ever assembled as a result. One of the names that most moderate Republicans cringed about even more than Mitt Romney returning, was a possible run by Sarah Palin. Almost all Americans knew already in January 2015 that Sarah Palin is a nutcase who should not be allowed anywhere near the White House. But in January of this year, that was not yet a consensus view. There were still many Tea Party extreme right wing conservatives, who loved Sarah Palin and wanted her to run. They invited her to give some speeches early in the year, to set up her run. And then the last vestiges of her supposed legitimacy fell apart. When those conservatives saw Sarah Palin speak in 2015, even the last right-wing pundits joined the same song - Sarah Palin we don’t want you, you are incompetent, do not run for anything ever again. And please do not speak for the conservatives ever again.
This is Spring of 2015. This is the SAME Sarah Palin who said the same dumb things in 2014 and 2013 and 2012 and 2011 and 2010 and 2009 and 2008. It is the same ‘proximity to Russia’ Sarah Palin. Its the same ‘I read all the newspapers’ Sarah Palin. Its the same ‘Obama is palling around with terrorists’ Sarah Palin. Its the very same Sarah Palin that was so popular among Tea Party candidates in the midterm elections of 2010 and 2014, to boost Tea Party conservatives to run for Congress or other major offices including the I Am Not A Witch gal and the Legitimate Rape guy.
Note the huge time span. Sarah Palin was a nutcase in 2008. It was clear to 80% of the nation that she was nuts. Many REPUBLICANS voted AGAINST John McCain because of the madness of selecting Sarah Palin as his Vice President. It showed that McCain had bad judgement. The exit polls of the 2008 election show clearly that Palin on the ticket damaged McCain more than helped him (she also brought ultra-right wing conservatives to come and vote for McCaim but that could have been achieved by selecting any other very conservative running mate, who was not also mad as a hatter).
We know today, that yes, Sarah Palin is unfit to be President. All even very conservative pundits and experts agree, Sarah Palin is unfit to be President. On this there is essentially unanimous agreement. But now go back to 2008. In 2008, all Democrats, all Independents and about a third of REPUBLICANS saw that Sarah Palin is incompetent. But what became knowns as the Tea Party, the extreme right wing of the Republicans, they did not see this obvious truth. They were fooled - yes fooled - into thinking Sarah Palin is a smart person. And that mass delusion lasted - SIX YEARS. Even though Sarah Palin had her career of disasters starting with resigning from the position of Governor of Alaska mid-term ahead of a pending scandal - she remained a darling by the nutty wing of the Republicans through the next THREE election cycles, regularly issuing her moronic statements mocked in the press, and showing up at interviews with phrases to mention literally written onto her hand.
Note I made the distinction that Sarah Palin was too dumb to be President, but that Carson is not dumb. But now, bear in mind, Sarah Palin that everybody NOW knows is incompetent, was seen as fit to be President by the right wing ‘echo chamber’ of the extreme Tea Party wing of the Republican party. For six YEARS. They did not see the truth for SIX YEARS of regular doses of Sarahpalinisms. And what did Sarah Palin do in 2008 and 2010 and 2012 and 2014 (and 2015) when she was confronted about her nutty utterings and ramblings? She blamed the liberal bias in the mainstream media or by her coined variation ‘lamestream media’ and she accused them of gotcha questions. Where have we heard that recently? And when left-leaning media, and neutral media, and moderate conservative media all asked Sarah Palin to clarify what she meant, what did the right-wing media do? They rushed to Sarah Palin’s defense! When moderate Republicans like Colin Powell or ‘Morning’ Joe Scarborough or George Will would try to point out that Palin is flawed, these truth-tellers were instead hounded as RINOs, Republicans In Name Only. Remember, we now KNOW, almost unanimous agreement by CONSERVATIVE writers that Sarah Palin is unfit to be in any office. And yet, in 2008 (and 2010, 2012, 2014) when any moderate conservatives raised those doubts, they were accused of being pariahs. Now, after the consensus formed in 2015, have any of the very conservative media thought-leaders (Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, Bill O’Reilly, etc) come and apologized to the early wise heads, who warned the party back in 2008 that Sarah Palin is poison? No. They saw the truth and they told the truth. And they were 100% correct and the ultra-conservatives were 100% wrong about Sarah Palin. But did they acknowledge that on this issue, Sarah Palin, the moderates were totally correct. Of course not. The one thing the ultra-right wing pundits never do, is apologize. They don’t do mistakes.
The Ballad of Sarah Palin is vitally relevant to the rise of Dr Ben Carson. There are striking similarities to how they both rose to prominence in the party and both appealed to the right-wing base of the party. And in the case of Sarah Palin she is truly incompetent, she should never have been picked by John McCain in 2008, and most normal Americans could see that clearly already by election day 2008. But the right wing ‘echo chamber’ refused to see crystal-clear reality for another six YEARS. They fell into a comfortable reality-denying mass delusion, that on the very right wing fringe, for most of the past seven years, Sarah Palin was a saint and a brilliant thought-leader who should become President one day. That illusion was finally shattered this Spring, 2015. This is the first big parallel we see with Dr Ben Carson. I do not mean (yet) to suggest Carson is incompetent to be President. I mean, that the extreme right wing is exceptionally vulnerable to a Sarah Palin effect. Another mass delusion because that part of the party is subject to what in management theory is called ‘group think’. They are not exposed to outside views, and then only listening to like-minded people, they become convinced easily of delusional matters. Like half of Republicans now believe Obama is a Muslim. Or that nearly half of Americans believe that Obama was born in Kenya. And so forth.
The extreme left wing of the Democratic party is not subject to such mass delusional positions because they (still up to this point) also are exposed to the general mainstream views, not only the extreme liberal views. The Republican party has been inflicted by a sickness, a Tea Party cancer, and part of the symptoms is that when anybody now expresses a view that is different from the right wing media, that is seen as heresy and the reaction is to instantly dismiss the idea without considering its merits. This is a sure recipe for disaster. And it exposes the extreme right wing to the long con of the Cult Of Carson. By long con, yes I mean the term used by professional con-men, hustlers. The right wing is being hoodwinked, is being fooled into supporting a disasterous candidate for his own personal gain. And where the press should act as the ‘check on government’ and expose the charlatan Dr Carson, instead, the extreme right wing are abdicating this responsibility. If the extreme right wing was seeking the best long-term benefit for the party, they would be exposing weaknesses in their candidates and find the strongest conservative they can locate (likely being Ted Cruz in this crop of candidates) but the more they avoid examining Carson, the more they do damage to their cause.
So the first point to understanding the Cult of Carson is that we learn from the Ballad of Sarah Palin that a totally wacko utterly unelectable ‘worse than Dan Quayle’ politician can sustain the illusion of being sane, for even six years, if the extreme right wing of the conservative media embrace that candidate. It does not mean that all candidates endorsed by the extreme right wing media are nuts (although many may be) but it DOES mean that a total moron candidate like Sarah Palin can survive politically alive and well, for even six YEARS until she was finally exposed for what she really is.
And where is Dr Ben Carson’s media support. Its not Huffington Post. Its not even ‘mainstream’ conservative media like the Wall Street Journal. No, its that extreme right wing yes.
CARSON HAS LEGACY
The second thing that hit me was the superficial similarity to Nine-Nine-Nine pizza mogul also token black Republican candidate from last time, Herman Cain. Black guy, outsider, not prepared ‘Uz-beki-beki-stan-stan’ and speaking in an unconventional style. Came seemingly out of nowhere, and got big crowds. Sure. But here is the huge differece. Herman Cain did come out of nowhere. Dr Ben Carson did not. Did you know, that George Idiot Bush ie W Bush ie Bush the Lesser gave Dr Carson a Presidential medal in the White House for his long dedicated work to help conservative causes - yes, this was before the 2008 election even! We - you and I - had never heard of, or paid any attention to Dr Carson - but what became later known as the Tea Party, the extreme right wing, has been reading Dr Carson’s wacko books for years. They are not books about brain surgery, they are books that compare this to the Holocaust, and compare that to slavery and compare so-and-so to Hitler, and so forth. We - you and I - had never heard of Dr Carson. But most of the leaders of the Tea Party, when it was formed in 2010 - they all knew of, and often had read books by Dr Carson. He had a legitimate ‘cult following’ that has lasted decades. And it has already back then been the extreme right wing ‘beyond Nazis’ level racist and paranoid extremist view. Anyone reading Dr Carson without knowing he is a black man, would think that was written by the head of the Ku Klux Klan. And exactly the same hatered spews out of his mouth all the time, still today, such as that a Muslim should not be the President of the USA.
So this is a giant difference between Carson and say Carly Fiorina or Scott Walker in this cycle, or say Herman Cain or Michelle Bachmann last time. There is a large core of Dr Ben Carson supporters - literally millions of them - who have loved him for years, for decades even. Its a fringe, it is a niche, and it was almost totally under the horizon for most political writers, but Carson has truly built a solid strong and wide base.
CONSISTENT STORY
So Carson has been writing books and doing speeches for more than a decade to ultra-conservative groups. The reason nobody ever paid attention to him from the outside, was that utterly disarming manner where he closes his eyes, speaks in monotones, so very painfully slowly, and delivers politically suicidal statements. So he was a genuine wacko that we all could safely ignore. Why, because this guy was clearly never going to amount to anything. He would not run for Senator or Governor or god-forbid President, and even if he ever tried that, he would be crushed in a landslide. He was no threat, so nobody ever took him seriously. Nobody on the outside of extreme right wing media, that is. And on the right wing media, he was a cult hero. He would often be invited to give his views on various controversies exactly because it could be counted upon, that Carson would give such extreme right wing views that most ‘normal’ conservatives would seem tame by comparison. Very good media fodder for the right wing radio talk shows for example.
THE REVOLUTION ANALOGY
So then lets do, this is Mr Holocaust and Nazism analogies master, after all, yes, lets do a Hitler (and Putin) analogy. And no, do not misunderstand me. I am not going to suggest in any way that charming loving celebrated DOCTOR Ben Carson would be Dr Mengele or indeed genocidal Adolph Hitler. No. I do not mean Dr Carson would throw liberals into a gas chamber one day haha. No. I truly do believe he is very devoutly Christian and as a Doctor, particularly peace-loving and life-affirming guy. But I want to talk about the rise to power in times of utter despair.
Dr Ben Carson is clearly obsessed with Nazi Germany. He writes and talks about Hitler, Holocaust and Nazi analogies all the time. Separately, the right wing of the Republican party is often weirdly infatuated with Vladimir Putin of Russia. On the one hand they praise Putin for his strong-handed running of his country (which Putin turned from modern multi-party democracy with a free press to a dictatorship with near complete censorship) but then if Obama issues one executive order or two (far less than W Bush for example) suddenly Obama is a horrible tyrant. The USA is safely an open democracy and the press is totally free. But yeah. Love that Putin, oh horrible Obama is a dictator...
But yes, the Republicans seem obsessed with admiration of Putin (recently less so, now that he is in Syria) and Carson seems obsessed with Hitler. Lets look at how those two rose to power. Both were legitimate political leaders of fringe right-wing extremist parties in their countries, under totally open fair democratic elections. And I mean elections, plural. Both Hitler and Putin led their parties to epic losses time and again, in numerous elections where they got something around 10% to 20% of the vote (or even less). And when we look at Carson’s current polling support - 25% of Republicans - in a general election that could be 12% of the national vote. Thats the level of Carson’s support today, at the extreme ‘Nazi’ right wing of the Republican party. Very similar to what the original Nazi, Adolp Hitler had in his open elections in Germany in the 1920s and 1930s, and its what the newest Nazi, Vladimir Putin was getting for his ultra-right-wing Restore-Russia-to-Glory or whatever his party was called, was having in the elections of the 1990s.
If you only get 10% or 15% or 20% of the vote, you don’t get to run the country (tell this to the Tea Party who controls 20% of Republican seats ie 10% of Congress today, haha). But why was Hitler able to use such low level of support get into power, then to seize power and control, and abandon democracy and declare himself Dictator for life? Why was Putin 70 years later able to do almost exactly the same, use low level of support to somehow get into power, then abandon democracy and become de-facto Dictator-for-life even as the Russian constitution prohibits having the Presidency more than twice in a row,
Yes. a little bit of history is again needed, for this second analogy relating to Dr Ben Carson. Why is this base of his support so powerful today? Lets go back nearly a century. Germany in the 1920s was a former global superpower, the most powerful military on the planet, that had just lost ‘The Great War’ (what was later to be known only as the ‘first’ World War). Not only humiliated militarily, but Germany had suffered enormous economic collapse, where money was so worthless, people were literally carrying piles of paper money cash in a wheelbarrow, to go buy something. The former global superpower was a wreck and foreign powers were seen as having caused all the despair (from the heavy war reparations specified in the peace threaty of Versailles ending World War 1). Hitler’s little quirky Nationalist-Socialist (Nazi) party was a total wacko fringe, who preached a restoration of Germany military might, and that Germany should fight the outside enemies, and that internally, there were communists and the Jews who were the enemy internally, including many acts of terrorism by the communists. After countless other more prominent political leaders were given the chance to fix Germany’s problems, and they all failed, finally the tiny party of Hitler’s Nazis was invited to join a coalition to govern Germany (Parliamentary system, so often there are coalitions of various parties). And from there Hitler seized power, jailed his rivals, ended freedom of the press, and persecuted the communists and Jews, and rose to power.
Frightening story, isn’t it. Now fast forward 60 years to the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union was by far the most powerful military might that had existed on the planet up to that point in time. But then came Perestroika, Glasnost, the break-up of the Soviet Union and rump-Russia was suddenly a country in total economic catastrophy. Soldiers were not being paid, in the first Chechen war they would sell their weapons or ammunition to the Chechens (the enemy) so they could buy food or vodka for themselves. The mightly military ws a joke. The Soviet economy which had maintained an illusion that it was supposedly the equal of the USA, was actually a myth, and after the collapse of the empire, it was exposed to be no bigger than that of Italy, just one of the five ‘big’ countries of Europe that were part of NATO, where the USA was about half of NATO total fighting force. The new Russia saw very unbalanced economic gains, some opportunistic entrepreneurs quickly rose to become megarich, even Billionaires, while the common people didn’t see their wages paid, lived in extreme poverty. Putin promised he would restore Russian military to its former glory. That the enemies were on the outside plotting to keep Russia weak, especially hated England and the USA, and of course internally there was the threat of terrorism from the Chechens. After President Yeltsin had given control of Russia to four consecutive and failed Prime Ministers of the larger parties than Putin’s tiny Russia-Forever-Glory whatever party (I forget the exact names as he did some mergers with rival parties too haha), Yeltsin finally gave that wacko Putin his chance to be Prime Minister. And what did our little Czar Vladimir the First, do immediately? He attacked the Chechens. He burned their capital city Grozny to rubble - imagine a riot in Atlanta, and suddenly Obama sending in the army to kill the civilians of Atlanta by carpetbombing the city to rubble. Yes, not just killing the ‘terrorists’ and the ‘military’ in the city of Grozny, Putin flattened the city. And he had installed a mine field around the city, so no civilians could escape the carnage. And Putin - Mr Propaganda - of course forbid the press from reporting from the war zone and didn’t allow the bodies to be counted. Still today there is no count of how many died but it was hundreds of THOUSANDS of Russian citizens. A small fraction were soldiers or terrorists, most were civilians. Then Putin’s brilliant masterstroke was to claim victory and end of the war.
The Second Chechen war did not end there. It continued for eight more years! But because Putin controlled the press, it was just relabeled a police action of some minor criminals and not to be covered in the news. We, foreigners, know much more about the Second Chechen War than what any Russians have been told about it. They thought the war lasted 8 months and Putin won.
But yes. VERY relevant parallel to the mass delusion world that Dr Ben Carson is living in. The rise of Adolph Hitler to power, would not have been possible from an extremist militarist racists fringe of an open democracy in Germany had it not been three major political events in near unison. The collapse of German ‘power’ mostly militarily. Combined with the collapse of the German economy. And while Hitler’s Nazi party proclaimed that look, the world is falling apart, the military is ruined, the economy is a mess, let us fix it - the sensible Germans allowed the larger parties to try to fix it - and they failed, time and again. Then at some point, Hitler was given his chance. What that led to, was, well, World War 2, and another total destruction of Germany, and Hitler’s suicide.
Meanwhile Vladimir Putin? He only got into power as the Soviet Union collapsed and the military was ignored, to become a truly aweful mess and laughing stock. The Russian economy collapsed. And Putin’s tiny ‘Russia Is Great’ party wanted to restore the miliatry and promised economic revival. And everybody saw he was a total basketcase as the ex KGB officer nobody wanted as their leader. But after repeated attempts by four more prominent political leaders of several parties tried to fix Russia, finally Putin was given the chance and he of course then seized power. What we’ve seen so far is Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine and Crimea, now Syria and one of his amazing propaganda tools the global satellite propaganda channel of Russia Today.
So the conditions for such an extreme Nazi right-wing nut to seize power are that the nation's former military might is devastated. And simultenously the economy has collapsed. And several more prominent politicians try and try again to fix it, to no avail. Then at some point, the nations says, ok you idiot Nazi, you think you can fix this, go ahead and try... This is dangerous, folks. It happened twice to the most powerful military country on the planet, within the past 100 years.
THE SKY IS FALLING
So any normal, reasonable person who does even a superficial study of world military power, sees that the modern USA military might reigns absolutely supreme above any conceivable rivals. The USA spends more on military spending than the seven next largest countries - combined! The USA military is by far the most powerful the world has EVER seen. The USA has the world’s largest navy, the USA has the world’s most powerful air force, the USA has by far the world’s largest invasion capabilty to BRING its tanks and soldiers to any shore anywhere. The USA operates the world’s largest fleet of killer drones that can fly literally around the world. The USA is the only nation that operates live TV camera high-resolution spy satellites that see everything to the precision that we just learned about that Russian civilian airliner crash in Egypt, that it was caused by a mid-air explosion, not explosion on the ground. They SAW it on the satellite. The USA is BY FAR BY FAR BY FAR the most strong military that the planet has EVER seen. No sane person suggests the USA is militarily weak.
But what is the right wing media saying? The USA is falling behind, Obama is destroying the military, the navy is the smallest since year x and the army is the smallest since year y. You know how crazy this is? The US Army, the ARMY, says ‘we have more than enough tanks, please do not give us more tanks’. That is literally what the Army says. The main battle tank, the M1 Abrams. The USA has too many of them, the USA is actually ‘mothballing’ them ie parking them in long-term storage. Yet what does Congress do? It allocated MORE money to buy MORE TANKS. Those same M1 Abrams tanks that the Army says we have more than enough, thank you. Why is this? Because the tanks are made in a few congressional districts where the tank factories give lots of jobs, and those politicians want to keep those jobs going. Even to buy useless tanks. Even when OTHER PARTS of the military need money, like giving salary increases to officers. But that is not as good for the policitians, because those soldiers are now stationed in some military base in Korea or Aghanistan or Poland. So they actually buy more military hardware than the military EVEN WANTS... But yes, there is this absolutely batshit crazy hysterical scream that the USA mililitary is collapsing (and obviously that is the fault of Obama).
So that is the military fear-mongering. What about the economy? The reality is, all major economists agree - that the US economy has had the STRONGEST recovery of any OECD country from the worst economic disaster in our lifetime (the great Bush-Cheney economic collapse of 2008). The best recovery. The US unemployment rate is lower than BEFORE the collapse started. The USA has had THE LONGEST GROWTH PERIOD IN MEASURED HISTORY. Yes. The Obama economy has had THE LONGEST GROWTH IN HISTORY. The stock market is at new records. The housing market is strong. The auto industry is strong. The cost of gasoline is at decades-low levels. The USA exports more oil than it imports. The USA has record levels of alternate energy production. The BUDGET DEFICITS that became record-levels under Bush-Cheney and their crisis, have kept coming down FOR FIVE STRAIGHT YEARS. By almost every conceivable metric, the USA economy is healthy, it is strong, it is growing, it is FAR FAR better than it was in 2008. But what does the right-wing media tell its readers. Doom and gloom. The worst economy ever. Listen to Carly Fiorina in the last debate, the women have lost more jobs than men under Obama. Haha, utter bunk that even Fiorina had to admit was wrong. But this is the right-wing echo-chamber. They are repeatedly telling the right-wing conservative voters that the US economy is in the toilet, that the USA is about to become Greece, that Obamacare is destroying jobs and on and on and on.
It does not matter what the reality is about the US military strenght, if the only media you are exposed to, is right wing media, and they say repeatedly the US military might has collapsed. It doesn’t matter what the reality of the US economy is, if the only media you are exposed to, is right wing media, and they say repeatedly that the US economy is a disaster. And the beauty of propaganda is, that if a simple message is repeated enough, it will be believed. Anyone saying otherwise is ‘liberal bias’ false media narrative ie they are lying. Just like with Sarah Palin, for six years they perpetuated a lie and even EXPERTS fell for the lie even six years later. What will the common voter believe?
If they only watch Fox News and listen and read right-wing media, then yes, those voters will fear the horrible total global collapse of the former giant that was once a proud USA. That the military is a mess, and the economy is a joke. Then we want some scapegoats. Its the Chinese and Mexicans who destroyed the economy. Listen to that smart businessman Donald Trump (And the other smart businesswoman Carly Fiorina, they know what they are talking about, they know the economy). China and Mexico, plus Japan and others have destroyed our economy. Clearly its the fault of Obama. And what about the military? Listen to Dick Cheney (oh no, my ears are bleeding). Listen to Lindsay Graham and Marco Rubio. Clearly these are experts on national security and clearly Obama has totally gutted the US military and we are now at threat of an invasion of unarmed children from Mexico. (Lets build a wall!)
And more fear-mongering. Ebola is coming across the border (remember that in 2014?) Lets build a wall. Lets imprison this volunteer nurse who went to Africa to save lives (Good one, Governor Chris Christie for shredding the US Constitution to keep us ‘safe’). And then that standard monster, Islamic terrorism. No matter that domestic gun violence and accidents kill 1,000 times more people every year than total terrorism deaths to Americans since 2002, but yeah, lets fear terrorism. Its all Obama’s fault.
Sensible people will look the overwhelming evidence of facts that the US economy is not in crisis, the US military might has not collapsed, China and Mexico are not strangling the USA, and terrorists have not succeeded in any significant attacks since 2001 under Bush-Cheney. There is good reason to be vigilant. The economy is not as robust as one would like, the military can have areas that can be made stronger, in a modern war type of way (but gosh, don’t buy more of those TANKS, you don’t fight ISIS with tanks) and yes, there needs to be vigilance about terrorism, just look at the bomb aboard the jet airliner now in Egypt. But sensible people are not in panic. Sensible people are not freaked out that the USA is about to become Greece.
But then poll the Republicans. And yes, they think its a catastrophy going on right now. They honestly really do believe so. Not all Republicans, but the vast majority of the Tea Party thinks the US economy is on the brink of collapse and the military is now unable to defend the USA. THIS ‘mind-set’ (not reality, mind-set) is how an extremist right-wing literally Nazi party got into power 80 years ago in Germany. Note the mind-set in Germany reflected REALITY back then. This exact same mind-set (not reality) is what got Putin in power 20 years ago. Again, yes, the mind-set did reflect reality. But for Dr Ben Carson (or Donald Trump or Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio) if they can create that fear in the minds of Republican voters that Obama has destroyed America, then they can get into power too - while they know fully well, that it is utter bullshit.
The beauty of this fraud, is that if one gets elected, they can then claim that all the improvements were done by them. Remember how bad it was in 2015? Now we have a good economy, now the military is strong, see how good we are, Republicans to the nation.
This creates a political messaging ‘safe zone’ for the wacko-candidates to spew utter bullshit at the Tea Party type voters who then are whipped into a feverish frenzy about the crisis that is now up on their beloved America. And when extreme right wing media refuse to allow moderate views in to the mix, then a convenient space is created where the right wing nuts are celebrated as heroes
THE VULNERABLE 20%
So lets take a very simplistic math model (yeah you knew this was coming, you can’t read a blog by Tomi Ahonen that doesn’t have at least some math.. its my way of eliminating the Tea Party based readers haha). In very rough terms the USA voters are divided into three parts, the Republican party members, the Democratic party members and the Independents in the middle. In actual votes cast, the Independent is largest, the Democratic party membership second largest and Republican party membership is smallest but all are close to same size and their exact proportion depends on how big is the turnout in the given election. But lets simplify this and say its 30/40/30 so the math is ‘easy’. Note that when a pollster asks for primary candidate prefernce, then those Independents in the middle, they are divided in how they would likely vote, so they are split almost evenly, so the nation becomes roughly 50/50 (more like 49/51 but lets keep this simple).
Most, not all, of the Independent 40% in the middle will be typically exposed to moderate media regularly. I mean NY Times or Washington Post in newspapers, perhaps slightly left-leaning major press but not as obviously liberal as say the Huffington Post. If they are interested in business news, very likely also read the Wall Street Journal. They’d be happy to watch their fave broadcast news nightly, one of ABC, CBS or NBC, but probably only one of the three channels based on which is their favorite new anchorperson. They can easily watch CNN on cable and not feel any of these four networks is particularly ‘biased’. But they know if they watch MSNBC news, they will be seeing a left-wing angle to news coverage headed by their rising star Rachel Maddow that the right sees as their media monster; and if watching Fox News, they know that they are seeing right-wing angle to news coverage headed by their classic star, Bill O’Reilly.
There is then the left wing or ‘progressive’ wing of the Democratic party supporters, in the liberal left, who may be predisposed to only read/watch left-wing media; and there is correspondingly the right wing ‘Tea Party’ wing of the Republican party supporters who prefer Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Ann Coulter, and who would not enjoy watching any other broadcasted news channels except Fox News - and some Tea Partiers who now even think Fox is too ‘lamestream’ media and yes, that Fox has a liberal bias (hahaha).
Of the Actual Republican party supporters, my model roughly 30% of the voters, you could say the majority are Tea Party supporters - as the Tea Party has historically had about 20% national support and even very recent polling has it in the high teens. But if we take all Repbublican voters AND Independents who prefer to vote Republicans, ie the voter base for polling of Republican candidates, it would be more like 40% of the total Republican support that would be Tea Party. Again, in rough terms very consistent with national polling from this Autumn. So in our simplifed model, lets say 20% of all voters support the Tea Party and they are essentially all actual Republican party supporters too (in reality some are Independents but then that number would be reduced from Republican support).
So we get this kind of model:
20% of all voters are Republican supporters and Tea Party supporters
10% of all voters are Republican supporters but not Tea Party supporters
20% of all voters are Independents who tend to support Republicans
20% of all voters are Independents who tend to support Democrats
30% of all voters are Democrats
Now we have that 20% vulnerable slice of Republican supporters who are also Tea Party supporters. Most of those are limiting their media exposure to only right-wing media.
There are some other aspects of this split we should take into account now. The Democratic party gets the more highly-educated voters, the Republican party gets the less-educated voters. A lot of overlap on this but a rough rule of thumb is, that the Republican voter base is less educated. They are hence easier to convince with lies and propaganda than the more educated Democrats. Then how is the Tea Party compared to the overall Republican voter base? They are even less educated, on average. Yes, Donald Trump and Dr Ben Carson base voters are literally the LEAST educated of all major candidates supporting either side. Nothing wrong with being less educated but being less educated does mean, you are more vulnerable to lies and propaganda.. Try convincing an international club of university professors that climate change is not real or that homosexuality can be learned in prison.
The Republican party gets the vast majority of the religiously evangelical and born-again supporters. The most fanatical religious voters. Those again, fanatics, are more easily brainwashed to share a common view and reject ‘common sense’ arguments; they are most vulnerable to political positions peddled by unscrupulous politicians who share a strong religious conviction (or successfully masquerade as such). And or religious leaders who take that political view point. Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum are typical politicians who have preached to this side of the party for years but its a time-honored slice of Republican party support that all sorts of televangelist TV preachers have pandered to. Rick Perry was courting this support in 2012 and again in his aborted run this time. Latest in the 2016 field to join this church is Ted Cruz. And guess where Dr Ben Carson has been all along? He was mixing religion and politics long before we heard Mike Huckabee on his previous run for President when Huckabee finished second behind John McCain in 2008. Dr Ben Carson was even back then a known extremely religious conservative writer and speaker. Only nobody outside of the extreme wing ever thought he might run for President one day.
Now, going by 2012 election exit polls, about one quarter of the voters are evangelical religious voters and 4 out of 5 of those, voted for Mitt Romney, one in five voted for Obama. So we could again accept that roughly one in five total voters are both evangelical voters and Republicans. Its that 20% again.
So how bad is the media bias? A deep media study by Pew in 2014 found that conservatives would yes watch Fox News - but nearly half of conservatives - 47% do not use other mainstream news sources. I summarize this for our purposes that they are at the risk of being brainwashed. Contrast that to liberals where the normal news exposure is far more varied and CNN (a centrist/neutral) news outlet is most watched, but ranging from MSNBC to Fox News and almost always with multiple sources.
So we are again near that 20% danger zone. In pure Fox viewership 23% of American voters have abdicated a monopoly to news coverage to the least accurate news network, Fox. And as the right wing echo chamber proclaims that there is this vast left wing liberal media conspiracy of lies (Sarah Palin is competent!) no wonder that the Fox viewership is most most distrustful of any other news sources. They HAVE been brainwashed. The same Pew study found that Americans with liberal views know and read more news sources, and trust them all more evently, compared to those with conservative views who have a paranoid attitude to news, knowing and following less total new outlets and thinking most of those are actually lying. Interesting. But this does mean, if someone were so callous as to deliberately try to instill fear into American voters, its far easier to do to Fox viewers, than to say MSNBC viewers or readers of the New York Times haha. Not that I would suggest the right wing is trying to instill a fear of the USA in total catastrophic military and economic collapse with terrorists streaming across the border bringing Ebola with them. Far from it!
Nearly half of conservatives will not expose themselves to regular news coverage by moderate or left-leaning media. They only take the Fox view or more right-wing talk radio and blogs. And plenty of those who do, will view the non-Fox (or non-more-right-wing) media as lying bastards. So they won’t accept their versions of reporting as valid.
We have now a perfect coccoon for the vulnerable. They are conservatives by political ideology, often religiously evangelical, some even fanatical. They are often less educated. They refuse to be exposed to non-conservative viewpoints and if exposed to them, will view them as heresy. And these people have been told for the last 7 years of Obama that the USA is in horrible terminal decline, that an eminent economic collapse will bring anarchy in the style of the collapse of the economy of Greece. That the Dollar is in danger, so we should go to the Gold Standard, and on and on and on. China is to blame, Mexico is to blame, Obama has caused all this. And all - all - experts who are invited to discuss politics are now aping this nonsense. Suddenly someone like Donald Trump or Dr Ben Carson can seem like the smartest man in the room.
SAME OLE SAME OLE
This then brings us to the CONTRAST. The religious wing has felt it is being ignored by the Republican party. That it is given lip service. For decades the Republicans have promised to end abortions and whether a Republican was President or the party held the Congress or the Senate or any combination of the above, never has abortion been ended. And on and on. They feel betrayed by conventional politicians. Note how different this is from Democrats. They too are frustrated but Democrats feel that the gridlock in congress is the problem not their own politicians. Democrats feel Obama has been too much a wimp on social issues, etc. But they don’t blame their own politicians. But half of Republicans feel their OWN politicians have betrayed them.
So this is why there is that ‘we want the outsider’ emotion so strongly on Republican side, but not at the Democratic side (Bernie Sanders is no outsider by any stretch of the definition, he is life-long Senator of liberal views and his positions now are all consistent with long-held liberal wing Democratic positions. Also Bernie’s solutions are all based on normal political process, laws, etc.)
Trump tapped first into that outsider emotion, and very powerfully. But as some of the idiocy of the Trump candidacy became obvious, there has been the rising tide of Dr Carson. He has quietly gotten ever more support and now is roughly tied with Trump. While Trump is becoming ever more like the normal politician, more politically correct, more flipflopping on positions more nuanced in his statements, Dr Carson remains pure and the clear outsider. And Trump’s style of campaigning is not that dissimilar from say Chris Christie’s bombastic style. But nobody has ever campaigned quite like Dr Carson. With that solemn, almost trance-like delivery of his speeches in such quiet tones.
(oh, I have to inject here, haha, CNN is running with that part of the Carson story now, that actually he was never the big aggressive gansta as a kid who had a knife fight. All who remember him, his class mates, etc, say he was exactly the kind of person who could become a famous brain surgeon - he was the class nerd, a bookworm and he wore a plastic pocket protector for his pens. Knife fight, indeed. Carson is such a bullshit artist), Which brings me to his voice.
FRIGHTENED CHILD
Now I want to talk about that iconic Dr Ben Carson ‘bedside manner’ voice. And again, we gotta do some Hitler comparison here. Its so difficult for us in the modern age to consider the hysteria around Adolph Hitler. But contemporary international reporting is crystal-clear about the Nazi rallies and Hitler’s speeches that the audiences were in euphoria. He was treated even more fanatically than modern rock stars on stage. To us it seems comical and like Charlie Chaplin’s parody of Hitler in The Great Dictator. But clearly, for the German population of the 1930s, who attended Hitler’s rallies, they were in a religious frenzy when he spoke. Nazism in the 1930s was akin to a religious cult with Hitler as their cult leader. Sadly, a cult leader who led the to mass suicide in World War 2. But yes, very akin to a cult leader. But understand, if you were NOT a German, living in those horribly troubled economic crisis times, then Hitler’s weird comical sermons were ludicrous. It was regularly reported by outside politicians abroad, that Hitler could not possibly ever gain power, with his comical political schpiel. But it worked - for HIS AUDIENCE. Thats all that mattered. Incidentially, same was said for years about Putin - but that comical farce also worked perfectly for Putin’s audience. So lets see Dr Ben Carson’s style and audience.
Imagine having some sort of brain damage or injury. Imagine having a brain tumor that may kill you and you might survive by brain operation, but that brain operation may also leave you effectively as an idiot or worse, a pure vegetable who loses all cognitive thinking ability. Imagine being in a doctor’s office when you - you - have the brain damage that needs urgent and SURGERY based repairs. Or worse, an attempt at repairs. Someone says they have to cut open your skull, and cut out part of your brain. Brain surgery.
Yes, we can admire Dr Ben Carson for his brilliant career in brain surgery. That is the ACTIVITY of cutting into the live person’s brain. But imagine the doctor’s appointment that authorized that horribly frightening operation. Think about it. What level of fear is it, when you know that you might not come out of this brain operation with the ability to speak anymore, or see anymore, or hear anymore, or feel anymore, or remember anymore, or think anymore - or indeed, you may die in the operation. And you - the patient - has to approve this operation before Dr Ben Carson takes you to the procedure. What will that doctor sound like, who has to REASSURE you that all is ok. He will speak slowly. He will not panic. He will speak quietly. You have to listen intently. He may close his eyes, to seek ‘internal’ guidance. He is clearly brilliant. We can trust him. He is a supremely kind man. He is a supremely gifted man. It doesn’t really matter HOW he does it, as long as THIS is the man who does it. You can see WHERE Dr Ben Carson learned to speak so painstakingly slowly. He often was talking to patients who had LITERALLY HAD BRAIN DAMAGE. You speak that slowly if you are speaking to a child - or an imbecille.
Then think about the issues. Nobody has EVER been in Dr Carson’s chair and ARGUED against him. NEVER EVER questioned the world’s leading brain surgeon. He could say whatever he felt like, and everybody accepted it as if it was God himself speaking. And then the ‘logic’ of his rambling. When you ar truly that frightened that someone is about to cut into your brain, you do not sit carefully and think clearly. You are in enormous fear. So too, are your closest family members there in the doctor’s office. After the operation, my wife might never remember me again. After the operation, our son might not be able to talk. And so forth. VERY VERY huge FEAR. Almost impossible to imagine a more frightening discussion than the first doctor’s appointment with Dr Carson when he reveals that there has to be an operation into your brain.
At that point, what does Dr Carson do? He will do as ANY doctor would do, he will outline the type of operation that will be needed, using various complex technical brain-surgery-related terms that no mere mortal understands or indeed knows. But he will repeat a few of those words many times slowly. Why. Dr Carson cannot possibly teach a common person about how the brain surgery is actually conducted, but he has to REASSURE the patient. And Dr Carson wants the patient to remember a few key words. Why. Because many of those patients will go seek a second opinion. From who? From their regular family doctor - who is no brain surgeon - but who will know those same terms and use them. And possibly that patient seeks a second opinion from another brain surgeon, who ALSO uses those IDENTICAL terms. It doesn’t matter at all if Dr Carson’s actual explanation of the operation was a discussion of the plot of the Lego movie, but if he used those ‘big’ medical terms, that is all that the frightened patient and their wife or hushand or mother or father will remember. That is how Dr Carson learned to speak so slowly and in sentences that have no actual logic to them. Its like Sarah Palin rumblings but with longer words.
When you hear Dr Carson’s supporters talk, they are like cult followers. They cannot explain any sensible reasons of what Dr Carson would do, how his ideas would work, but rather they sing gloriously about his kindness, his gentleness, how good a person he is as a human being. How immensely intelligent Dr Carson is. That he is WISE. That he is wise. This is a cult. He is the wise one, to lead us. We don’t care how nutty some of his statements or ideas or positions are, he is the WISE ONE. After all the misery that America has seen under Obama, now we want the Wise One to lead us. Its like the doctor’s situation. We don’t care HOW he fixes it, but we TRUST he is the right man to cut into our brain. When you listen to his supporters, they do seem like they’ve been hypnotized. And yes, they have been brainwashed, to at least some degree.
THE CARSON, CONFUSED
So now we have Dr Carson, he developed the perfect way to talk to his patients. Then he wrote some wacko books and was invited to speak. And he used the same technique speaking in public. A painstakingly slow delivery in extreme monotone. But.. when all others deliver raving rants in the style of Rush Limbaugh, now Dr Carson sounds like the ultimately smartest man in the room. Not by what he said - but HOW he said it. And then - not always sure if what Carson said was actually smart - when you listen to the experts on right-wing media, they all agree, yeah, Dr Carson is supers-smart. He should run for President. He’d sure be the smartest president we ever had.
And that was all perfect and dandy for Dr Ben Carson as long as he remained in the fringes of right wing blogs and talk-shows. Now, in the campaign, Dr Carson has been exposed (and quite lightly so far) to the normal moderate media (and occasionally even some left-leaning media). And now journalists are not willing to accept that prisons make you gay. That pyramids were built to store grain (oh, I just noticed, Dr Carson says to PRESERVE grain for long term? How nutty is that? Who wanted to PRESERVE grain for thousands of years? Grain? In quantities the size of pyramids? Its such total lunacy as was the Texas invasion by Obama. Just utter total madness). Or that Obamacare - bringing health insurance to tens of millions of Americans - is now somehow akin to slavery. Gosh he is a goofball. But note - now Carson is honestly bewildered. Why are the media questioning me? I am the world’s best brain surgeon. Nobody ever questioned me. People love me, they buy my books, they give me huge applause when I speak, and all previous media loved what I said (Fox and its friends). But now CNN? Hates me? Wall Street Journal? Hates me? Why are they asking all these questions. So what, my tax plan works out, if you do the math (no it doesn’t, not anywhere close. It takes imaginary math to get Carson’s tax plan to work).
This is totally new for Carson, something he hadn’t expected or prepared for. What did he do? He ran away. He put his campaign on hold. He went on a book-signing tour instead. He has I think only one or two campaign apperances in Iowa scheduled for this month. And he - Carson - led the revolt about the debates. Carson doesn’t want ‘gothca’ questions from the press. He wants 5 minute opening and closing statements so nobody again questions him. And he is avoiding the media like the plague. Because Carson is constantly getting picked upon. on all his past writings and positions (which has only started, that pyramid idea only surfaced a few days ago but he wrote about it long ago, and now - the political novice that he is - he already endorsed that goofy idea that no Egyptologists accept as plausible. As plausible. A total lunatic idea. This is like Michelle Bachmann saying vaccinations cause autism). So for Carson, he would want to hide away into the obscurity and be only interviewed by truly conservative journalists. That is not how you become a President, Dr Carson. But he is that much the political novice that he doesn’t get such basics of the process. He is truly out of his league.
WHAT IF NOT
So lets examine the Dr Carson phenomenon from an alternate angle. I learned early in school that one writing and analysis style is to consider ‘what if not’ in other words, we can see the relevance of Dr Carson if we imagine it without him. Take the religious base. Lets imagine Dr Carson is not running. And lets remove Ted Cruz and Rick Santorum too. Who sits at 20% of the polls as the obvious darling of the religious evangelicals nationally, and leading in Iowa where evangelicals are 40% of the Republican voters. Obviously Mike Huckabee would be easily there. Second place behind Trump, with 20% of national polls, but safely first in Iowa with at least 30% there. Arguably the front-runner of this year’s race, if the rest of the field was as wide as it is today. Remember, this is exactly what Mike Huckabee did achieve in 2008, he won Iowa and he won essentially all the ‘bible belt’ states against McCain when Huckabee finished second. Did Rick Santorum or Ted Cruz ‘steal’ the voters that Mike Huckabee thought he owned? No, they went to Dr Ben Carson. And just today we hear that Mike Huckabee didn’t qualify for the adults table of the next TV debate even. He is now truly on the ropes.
Same can be said for Rick Santorum. He did the Mike Huckabee trick in 2012, he won in Iowa, with the extreme religious voters, and then won enough delegates in the bible belt to finish second to Mitt Romney. Rick certainly must have calculated that the race is between him and Huckabee. But did Huckabee steal Santorum’s voters? No, Dr Carson did. And while Ted Cruz also courts those voters, they clearly currently prefer Dr Carson.
What can we learn from this analysis? That Dr Carson’s voter support is no mystery and no surprise. It was there in 2008 and again there in 2012. They want a ‘very religious’ guy to be their ‘wise man’ to lead them, and currently Dr Carson has won them over. So it should not be a mystery that Carson polls in the low 20s and has been having a lead for much of the time in Iowa, but then Dr Carson doesn’t poll early as well in New Hamsphire. The base of Carson’s support is the same very religious voter base that Huckabee and Santorum have won previously. It is now enhanced by more Tea Party nutty wing paranoid voters but in general, thats the base. If Carson were to stumble or fall, then the obvious first beneficiaries to capture those voters should be Huckabee and Santorum. Except now, both Huckabee and Santorum seem incredibly vulnerable and weak thanks to the overall impact of Trump on everybody. I would be sure, both Huckabee and Santorum campaigns hope Carson soon folds, so they could see a big jump in their support levels.
But lurking in the wings is Ted Cruz, who seems a stronger ‘modern’ candidate who speaks enough of the religious message to jump in and capture those supporters. Cruz seems particularly agile and smart, he may have this all plotted and ready to pounce if and when Carson displays the weakness. And don’t rule out Marco Rubio. He is very conservative for someone acceptable to the moderate wing. Marco could and would also take some of Carson’s voters, if he were to collapse.
GLASS JAW
Which brings us to the viability of Carson as a candidate. He is ill-prepared, that is clear. He is incompetent to be President, at least as much as Sarah Palin was, and that is already obvious to some moderate Republicans and to many overall pundits and analysts. The Democrats are drooling over the chance for Carson maybe to be on the ticket and would run all the standard Sarah Palin play against him in that case. Differing from say Marco Rubio, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, Dr Carson is not willing at all to evolve and learn and improve. Carson’s solution is rather to escape and hide (and it reminds me again of Sarah Palin fearing the media).
Personally, I believe the inherent flaws of Dr Ben Carson as a national candidate for President, are so enormous, he has a ‘glass jaw’ as they say in boxing. In other words, even a towering giant strong boxing champion, if he has a weakness that you hit him once in the jaw, he is knocked out of the contest - that is no champion. That is a fake. And I think that Carson in reality has a glass jaw. Almost any rival should be able to utterly dismantle his candidacy in a single debate and have him quit. If they wanted to do it and dared to do it. Who is the wrecking ball in this year’s race? Donald Trump. He has taken on far stronger candidates and demolished them - look at Scott Walker. And now as Carson has passed Trump in several but not all polls, Trump has set his sights on Walker.
And Trump has a particular knack to find a simple ‘bumper sticket’ accusation about someone that really sticks, like how Jeb Bush is ‘low energy’. Did you see Trump is going after Dr Carson already on the issue that ‘he can’t negotiate’. So now, what did Trump say about that debating rebellion. Trump said he won’t sign their silly letter, Trump will negotiate with the networks directly instead, and alone. Smart move. Now, who has leverage? Trump doesn’t need the debates, he gets so much TV visibility right now that debates are more of a nuisance to him. And Trump hates it, to be on the stage for 2 hours, when others get to speak for 1 hour and 45 minutes of that time haha. Trump wants to be the only one speaking.
Meanwhile, Trump also knows that the TV stations want high ratings to sell expensive advertising. And that (at least up to now) Trump is the key to huge viewerships. The first debate should have had a few million viewers but had 24 million, something close to ten times more than normal. That is a huge. So Trump knows if he threatens to boycott a debate, the network will be hurt very badly. Thus Trump has enormous leverage to get what he wants, as long as it is within some level of reason. As Trump has already signalled that he will negotiate directly, and alone, I belive he will pick one or a few of the items on the ‘rebellion letter’ about debates, and negotiate that point or points, alone. Then Trump will celebrate how brilliant he is at negotiating - like he did at his closing in the third debate. BUT NOW the Carson dimension.
It was Dr Carson who said he wants to collect the campaigns together to change the debates. So Carson - stupidly (or in reality showing clearly how politically naive he is) - in public said he wanted to make those changes. And where did that go? Half of those who participated have already said they will not sign the letter. So Carson failed spectacularly in his first political attempt to get consensus - AMONG REPUBLICANS - and AGAINST THE HATED MEDIA. If a Republican politician cannot get other Republicans to agree on how to ‘punish’ the hated media, then what good is he. Mr Wise Man. So I foresee a Trump attack coming in the debate, that ‘Carson cannot even negotiate with friendly Republicans against the media’ and how can Carson be hoped to negotiate for the USA against Russia, China, Mexico, Japan and Iran. Oh, and he, Trump, just picked up the phone, and single-handedly negotiated that point(s) that they wanted...
If the ‘lamestream’ media attack Dr Carson, he is insulated among his core supporters because they don’t hear it. They are in that media coccoon of Fox and its friends. But if another Tea Party-friendly candidate, Donald Trump, dumps on Carson, suddenly he is quite vulnerable. And Trump has already started the attacks on Carson.
But its not certain. Out of any of the candidates, Dr Carson is most insulated from Trump attacks, because of that religious fanatical supporter base. They BELIEVE that is is good and wise. No amount of facts or ‘proof’ is able to fully penetrate that level of delusion. They are a cult. They are vulnerable to a fraudster. And if they were presented with Carson’s views unedited, in written form, without attribution, they would immediately reject that loonie. But they don’t listen to the words, they are listening to the TONE. And they are sick and tired of all the politicians who sound the same, and lie. Many voters, especially fiercely religious, less educated and often paranoid Tea Party types, they want someone they can TRUST. A good man. A wise man. A man who found god and changed from the dangerous young violent black man he once was, to become a beloved world-famous brain surgeon. With that voice that you just have to trust. This is a good man.... (haha yeah. Bullshit!). Dr Carson is a carefully constructed con. He is a fraud. He is trying to trick his way to the Presidency. And as long as he can hide from scrutiny, he can maybe pull it off. But no other core political constituency is as vulnerable to a ploy like Dr Carson is playing now, than that 20% on the right fringe of the Republican party. Remember the chilling truth: It took them six YEARS to admit, Sarah Palin is a basket case.
POWERFUL MODERN ORGANIZATION
So now how strong is his base. Dr Ben Carson has had the most contributions to his personal campaign (excluding Billionaries paying to SuperPACs). By far. His is the best funded campaign. And as far as we can see, Carson isn’t bothering to invest in such really expensive items as a national data-mining operation as Scott Walker did with most of his money and Jeb Bush was doing with most of his money. And he isn’t really spending it on TV advertising either. We do hear that he is ‘living large’ in luxury travel and hotels, but still, he is sitting on a massive war chest and his campaign reports that they collected 10 million dollars more in just the month of October. These contributions come from individuals. This suggests a strong campaign that won’t have to quit if his support falls somewhat.
Then we have social media. On this, there are no valid usable metrics to compare campaigns but in terms of Facebook followers, Carson has a huge and loyal following. And differing perhaps from Trump’s social media followers, many who follow Trump are doing it not because they are supporters, but because they want to be part of the spectacle, to take the entertainment value of Trump. But most who follow Carson are true believers (or brainwashed sheep, members of his cult).
So he polls very well. He has powerful fundraising and its from a broad base of voters rather than a few rich megadonors. He has a powerful social media organization. And he is ahead in Iowa, the first state to vote. This is potentially a strong campaign. As his voters are part of that cult that lives inside the alternate-relatity delusional cocoon, his support cannot easily be eroded by most normal means such as horrid media coverage or even in some cases, he is partially isolated against negative TV ads.
I do think Carson has a glass jaw. I do think he will find his support collapse and during this month of November. His supporters will be incredibly disappointed when the collapse happens and incredibly frustrated, especially if Carson is exposed as a fraud (like haha, the fantasy that he was a violent bully as a kid who had a religious coversion).
But Carson is ahead in Iowa. He can actually afford to lose some support in Iowa, and still win Iowa, especially if Trump finds his support in Iowa eroding and Trump switches his effort at some point to rather try to win New Hamspshire the second state to vote. So if Carson can keep his support - and that delusion can be incredibly sustainable - remember Sarah Palin it took six years, not six weeks or six months - then Carson could go on to do well in South Carolina (potentially winning it) and then onto March 1, when the bible belt votes. If Carson is still one of the front-runners ie his campaign balloon has not been burst say by Trump - then he could take the most delegates of March 1 (a plurality, not a majority) and if the field is still wide, he - Carson - could be the leader in the delegate hunt on the morning of March 2.
CAN HE WIN?
Yes. Dr Ben Carson can win the Republican nomination, yes. It does require that he maintains the illusion that he is somehow The Wise Man and he needs to hide from or deflect the attacks on all his whole lifetime of inconsistencies and utterly silly and outright false statements. But because Dr Carson’s base is the most gullible part of the most gullible party, and isolated from mainstream media scrutiny, yes, he can even win it. I don’t rate his chances strong, nowhere as strong as the chances of Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio or Donald Trump but yes. Dr Carson can win. To win, he has to hold the Tea Party and religious wing, a large part of that 20% of the national electorate and yes the most-gullible wing of the Republican party. If Trump stays in the race at least to mid March, and there are five or six other candidates who win delegates up to mid March, then yes, Carson can win it. He’s a long-shot but he could win the Republican nomination. His success would mean that Ted Cruz has performed incredibly poorly, because both are in the conservative wing of the party. I think Ted is far more capable as a politician, that Ted is very likely to get more delegates than Carson. But yes, Dr Carson can win the nomination.
If Dr Ben Carson won the nomination, he would be utterly crushed in the general election. It would be at least as bad, as if Sarah Palin had been on top of the ticket in 2008 instead of John McCain. And yes, almost all Independents, and many registered Republicans would vote against Dr Carson. They would hold their nose, and vote for Hillary Clinton as the only adult in the room. Carson would lose all 50 states and the Senate and House would flip. The Democrats would get a filibuster-proof Senate majority and the Democrats would win most other races for Governors, Mayors, local government positions. It would be a historic rout. And most conservative pundits and analysts know this fully well. They know Dr Ben Carson would be far more poisous in a general election, than Sarah Palin would have been (or would be today).
Now. Consider the polling head-to-head. Consider the polling of Republicans on who they think can beat Hillary Clinton. Carson polls ahead of Hillary in head-to-head matchups! And the candidate that Republicans feel is best to beat Hillary, is.. yes Dr Carson. This is an incredible level of mass delusion by the whole Republican party. They think this guy who says that being gay is a choice, that Muslims can’t be elected President, that evolution is not real, Obamacare is slavery, that pyramids were grain silos (and ..built by Joseph? What comic book version of the Bible has Dr Carson been reading?) and on and on... this guy would be eaten alive by BERNIE SANDERS in a debate. Remember clueless Linclon Jafee? Jafee would kick Dr Carson’s ass in a debate. Hillary Clinton would simply crush Dr Ben Carson in a debate even if she was forced to debate speaking French, using sign language, with one hand tied behind her back.
The general election would be an avalanche. But yes, Dr Ben Carson can plausibly win the nomination. And perhaps more likely, he could get enough delegates to come in second or third - and then Dr Carson could become the VP choice (still become minched meat in the general election).
WHO KILLED BAMBI
But consider the deflated balloon. The longer Dr Ben Carson runs and raises the hopes of the faithful, with his charade of lies and bogus points, hidden inside that wonderful reassuring speaking voice, the longer this con plays on, the more devastated will his past supporters be, when the fraud is exposed. If Carson is now beaten in November, no big deal. There is Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum to scoop up the sobbing religious supporters and take them back to the normal religious political world. But what if the collapse comes after Iowa? After a heroic 40% vote victory in Iowa, suddenly all the wheels come off in the weeks to New Hampshire and South Carolina, and the debates and press coverage which will be unprecedented in Carson’s lifetime, after he actually won Iowa? All the nonsense comes out, and his supporters will feel utterly devastated and betrayed. At a time when the deceiftul Dr Carson forced out of the game the honest and reliable Huckabee and Santorum (remember, I mean this is the view the religious voters had). The voters would be BITTER. And the Republicans might see a rare disappearance of their most consistent voter group the evangelical voters. Note, the DEMOCRATIC support from evangelicals would laugh and of course continue to vote Democratic. This would a catastrophic collapse of the Republican voter base. It would be reflected in polls already that Spring of 2016 and by the summer whoever had won the Republican nomination would face a dire lack of any funding and utter despair in the support.
If a ‘traditional’ candidate once again disappoints the religious voters, they would take it as yet another cross to bear. But if they are betrayed by ‘The Wise’ man, by ‘The Good’ man, that would be devastating. And if that collapse happens after Huckabee and Santorum are chased off the race, then the religious voters would have nowhere to go. I think many would stay at home.
I Tweeted that Some children had imaginary friends; Dr Ben Carson had an imaginary childhood.
TO SUM
So the extreme religious and Tea Party 20% of the right wing are the most vulnerable to a fraud like perpetuated by Dr Carson. The most gullible are now already in the Carson Cult. They were not exposed to news and views outside of extreme right wing media and Fox News is the nearest thing they come to the middle. They heard and seen for years the very-slow-speaking Dr Carson on various shows giving extreme views and then heard the extreme right wing pundtis fawn all over Dr Carson's vile views, accepting them as somehow wise. As Dr Carson make a big story about his religious conversion and redemption, this is the party of white people who fear blacks, they can imagine that this soft-spoken world-famous doctor had a violent gansta past in his youth. Why would anyone lie about such a thing. To brag about it? No, they happily gobbled all the lies in, line hook and sinker.
For the past seven years the right wing media has been peddling stories of the collapse of military and economic might of the USA because of evil Obama and of course Obamcare (because health insurance is like slavery, says the famous brain surgeon Dr Carson). At the same time they flame fears of terrorism and Ebola. And then, still at the same time, traditional politicians seem unable to fix things and get stuck in every more gridlock. Now when The Wise Man promises he will fix things, regardless of how he achieves it, his message is welcomed. And the hatered of how traditional politicians never fix things, create groundswell for a true outsider candidate.
Dr Ben Carson had prepared for this political moment for years, decades, writing his silly books with ridiculous ideas and wild analogies. But he had an audience. And then that reassuring voice tells people, trust me, I will fix this mess, I am that smart. I am that honorable, I am that good. I am that wise. And because all of it is always enclosed with a lot of religion (albeit quite weird like how the pyramids were built by Joseph for grain storage?) he must also be a religiously pure man. So he rises to the top of polling and draws huge cash in donations and secures a broad social media audience. Thats when things go wrong. The media get mean, with their evil gotcha questions like why Dr Carson's tax plan numbers don't add up, or did you really say pyramids were built for grain storage and whats with the prison turns men gay bit Mr Doctor? So he runs away and tries to stop debate moderators from asking probing questions.
This is not political party realism. This is a religious cult. He is cheating his followers with lies and propaganda. In doing this, Dr Ben Carson is more insulated from normal critical exposure as his core supporters do not see most media coverage. Dr Carson is now in the lead, he might win Iowa. He could even conceivably win the plurality of the delegates by next June. If he is the nominee for President or is added to the ticket as Vice President, the ticket will lose to catastrophic levels, unprecedented in living memory. Sensible people see this including moderate Republicans. As obvious as how incompetent Sarah Palin was. Lets hope the right wing will not need 6 years to come to the same conclusion. The longer the farce and con-man Dr Ben Carson continues to trick Republican voters in this cycle, the more it will just erode that little trust which remains of the Grand Old Party.
MOST LIKELY HE IS GONE
So the most likely scenario is, that Carson has his moment in the sun but the Carson November is gone before this month is done and we will see the next savior to the party, probably Rubio or Cruz would rise next to the top and face the full wrath of the wrecking ball that is Donald Trump. If Carson’s fall is modest, he can easily come in second in Iowa. If Carson’s fall is a collapse - this revellation that he fabricated a lie to pretend to have had a religous conversion - that to me, sounds like something devoted Christians are unlikely to forgive - he could even be gone by January. Trump is likely to hit Carson on non-religious sides such as how bad he is at negotiating. But others are likely to pile on, now in next week’s debate. And as Huckabee is relegated to the kids’ table, he needs now an all-or-nothing move, to try the Fiorina jump back to the adults table. Huckabee would be very likely to take some religious angle to Carson’s deception. Rick Santorum could be good for that too, for the same reason. Ted Cruz will prefer that others do the attacking on Carson, but he hopes he - Ted - can pick up the lion’s share of Carson’s supporters. Some may even go to Trump but those are mostly the non-evangelical but Tea Party type of supporters of Carson. The paranoids and conspiracy theory nuts who should find a lot in common with Trump’s pitch.
But as I said, its a cult. And trying to convince cult followers that their leader is a professional fraud, that is VERY difficult to achieve. Its possible the Carson Cult lives on happily to Iowa and beyond. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. But yes, if you hope for Carson to win (or even to get the VP slot) then his best chance is if Trump continues and the field is broad, and Ted Cruz has trouble getting strong attraction. Also would be best if Huckabee and Santorum quit soon. Then Carson has to win Iowa and do well in South Carolina (could win there too). Then Carson has to have a strong showing on the bible belt election day of March 1. But its plausible for Carson to hold the most delegates on the morning of March 2, and if so, why not, he could go all the way. Not win a majority of delegates but he could win the plurality (or come second). If so, he could be the Presidential nominee, depending on the negotiations. And if he finished second, third, or even fourth, he could still be the VP choice.
I am pretty sure, that if someone else is the Presidential choice, they will know fully well they do not want Carson as the VP haha similar baggage to what Sarah Palin was to McCain in 2008. But yes, that too is possible. Not highly likely but certainly plausible.
If Carson is on the ticket either on top or as VP, the Republicans lose in a huge huge historical landslide against Hillary Clinton.
PS ON DADDY BUSH AND CHENEY-RUMSFELD
Boy I did not see this coming. How incredibly tone-deaf is daddy Bush? George HW Bush ie the President for one term after Ronald Reagan before Bill Clinton, and the dad to Idiot Bush ie George W Bush, is now in the news. He has a book out. Congrats. But apparently, in the book, he calls Dick Cheney and Donald Rumfeld pretty well idiots. And he knows them, not just for having been his son's Vice President and Secretary of Defence. Dick Cheney was Daddy Bush's Secy of Defense. So now Daddy Bush comes out calling these two most senior of his son's administration as total nincompoops. Nice (good of you to notice Presdent Bush and thanks for telling us but you could have said this years before, not now when you are near you death-bed).
But yeah. What timing? Jeb Bush had his meltdown and went to Texas for support from mommy and daddy who are trying to get his fundraising to work again. And then we have that flailing relaunch of Jeb Can Fix It (not even Jeb Will Fix It..). Hey where is the exclamation point on Jeb? And while his polling keeps tanking - now two polls have it down to 4% - Jeb needs good news. What he does not want, is for journalists to ask Jeb to pick, is your daddy the past President correct or your brother the past President correct about Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld? Daddy calls them assholes and brother gave them medals and thanked them. So which is it, or can Jeb not fix this one? A true dilemma. Jeb is doomed if he picks one, or doomed if he picks the other. And very likely Jeb will be indecisive, which then plays to his core story that it takes 5 days to figure out that Iraq war was a mistake. And then... yes... this of course raises the question of Jeb and his foreign policy advisors - most of who are exactly from that Cheney-Rumfeld club of neocons. More idiots. Where is Jeb's independence now. So rather than try to spin a positive story of how Jeb is Fixing It, Jeb is now stuck talking about W Bush, Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld, certainly the three most hated recent politicians from either side. Smart one, Daddy Bush. Its almost like you wanted your son to utterly fail this campaign...
(This is such great fun the election cycle and every day, when you think it cannot get more weird, it does. So Carson faked a childhood of being a bully. And Daddy Bush hated Cheney & Rumsfeld... I wonder what tomorrow brings)
Americans on the right don't like National Socialism or Facism, aka crony capitalism.
And unlike Europe - now building walls against refugees - they aren't racists.
That was the previous accusation - the religious Tea Partiers were all closet red-neck Ku Klux Klansmen and that is why they would never vote for Benevolent Barak. (Obamacare is working about as well as Elophones).
Political debate seems to be where you can't politely and reasonablyndisagree, you must label your opponents as stupid and/or crazy.
But how well is your country doing?
Posted by: tz | November 06, 2015 at 11:14 AM
@tz:
Americans on the right are already closer to fascism than to genuine democracy. When these people and their supporters start to talk it always sounds like democracy is only there to keep the 'liberals' in power - so with that mindset and an unbroken belief in one's own superiority (par for course for fascists) it's only a small step to create an authoritarian regime. And they are just as good at brainwashing to fool the dumb masses as the Nazis ever were. And if you ask me they are the most dangerous threat to the entire world.
To be honest, this Carson guy really scares me, like no other potential presidential candidate did in the last 32 years (that'd be the time frame when I was old enough to understand such things.) If people like that get into power some really bad things are about to happen.
It's easy to label your opponents 'crazy' if they really are. If you ask me, the entire leadership of the GOP needs to be checked into a mental institution, what they have been doing for the last few years defies any concept of sanity.
And BTW, we just see in Turkey what happens if some power-greedy right winger tries to consolidate his power. All democratic achievements are going to be gradually tossed out in the name of ensuring that the 'right' people stay in power. Be careful - that's where the USA will head too, if this is not stopped soon. The foundations have already been laid with the Patriot Act and other laws which undermine people's liberties. It's only a small step to make it tip over.
Posted by: The Fallen | November 06, 2015 at 11:51 AM
Hi tz and The Fallen
Wow that went fast from bad to much worse. While Dr Carson challenged all media to go dig through everything he ever said by asking, do you think I am a pathological liar (big big mistake that no competent politician would ever say to any press) now the first admission already happened just minutes ago. Dr Carson's campaign admits that actually what he wrote in his book about meeting General Westmoreland and then getting an invitation to study at West Point military academy - is total fabrication.
This is now one slightest step away from the edge of the cliff. One more clear lie and that becomes a meme 'I am not a Pathological Liar' and eventually it becomes the one line that everybody associates with his legacy, like Richard Nixon 'I am not a crook' or Rick Perry 'One, Two, Oops' or the I am not a witch woman. I am about 99% certain that more lies will come out, and only one more will ignite that line 'I am not a pathological liar' which also comprehensively sinks his campaign. Lies by themselves are no real career-ending problem. But claiming to be so pure and religious, and then uttering that line 'I am not a pathological liar' it will haunt him - if another clear lie is exposed - till the end of his career. Too bad, that was totally an unforced and very stupid error.
But gosh yes that was only hours from the previous credibility issue (The CNN news finding that his school-age friends remember him as a geek not a gangsta). How can I go to sleep as there is so much wild and woolly entertainment happenin all the time in US politics..
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | November 06, 2015 at 06:07 PM
The extreme left IS subject to mass delusional positions. The scarier thing is, so is the moderate left. What's even worse is that they think those positions are reasonable. Take Keystone XL. There is no logical reason to oppose the pipeline in concept. Opposition has nothing to do with "climate change." If "climate change" advocates really cared about reducing carbon emissions, they'd promote nuclear power or hydraulic fracturing in China and India (the former of whom is by far the largest emitter of carbon).
Another delusion is that Obamacare is a winning policy politically. It's been 5.5 years since it passed, and 2 years since it took effect, and Democrats are STILL losing elections because of it, even in places like Kentucky where it is "working." (Kentucky votes GOP in presidential elections, but historically is Democrat at the state level). Even in Virginia, the Democrats failed to win a single new seat in the state senate, which would have given the Democratic governor more leverage.
Posted by: Catriona | November 06, 2015 at 06:23 PM
@The Fallen, Turkey isn't an example of a "greedy right winger" taking power. It's an example of a country making a rash decision because a "greedy left winger" in the U.S. is falling down on the job of taking leadership in the Middle East. Yes, Obama inherited a mess. But he made it worse by making a bunch of idle threats in Syria (and Crimea, and Eastern Ukraine) and being called on his bluff.
Keystone XL is about political payback to Obama's billionaire supporters like Warren Buffett, whose Burlington Northern railroad benefits when oil is shipped by rail instead of safer pipelines. Obamacare is about political payback to big insurers.
"Progressive" Barack Obama has been trying as hard as he can to hand over control over the Internet to those freedom-loving countries like China and Russia. Congress is the only entity that has prevented this from happening and has insisted that the US maintain control over UCANN and continue to issue domain names on a free and fair basis.
"Progressive" Barack Obama was the one supporting the NSA's spying and the IRS' attacks on organizations he doesn't like.
Posted by: Catriona | November 06, 2015 at 06:31 PM
The timing and perspective of Tomi's post is amazing. Truly lost in space.
Ben Carson Admits His "Inspirational" West Point Scholarship Story Was Entirely Made Up
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-06/ben-carson-admits-his-inspirational-west-point-scholarship-story-was-entirely-made
I prefer the comments to the article.
Clinton Signed NDA Laying Out
Criminal Penalties for Mishandling of Classified Info
Dem presidential candidate and top aides signed NDAs warning against ‘negligent handling’ of classified information
http://freebeacon.com/politics/clinton-signed-nda-laying-out-criminal-penalties-for-mishandling-of-classified-info/
".....“I have been advised that the unauthorized disclosure, unauthorized retention, or negligent handling of SCI by me could cause irreparable injury to the United States or be used to advantage by a foreign nation,” the agreement states.
Clinton received at least two emails while secretary of state on her personal email server since marked “TS/SCI”—top secret/sensitive compartmented information—according to the U.S. intelligence community’s inspector general.
The State Department said in September that Clinton’s private email system, set up at her Chappaqua, N.Y., home, was not authorized to handle SCI......"
A perspective for all:
The Political Continuum and the Uncomfortable Center
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/05/political-continuum.html
"....Even in matters of faith, there are conflicts with the distortions of the far right, who hold faith as a rationale for their own ends rather than an end in itself. I do not judge, but I can listen. And when someone holds forth about a God without compassion and love, and when they reject His own laws, they declare themselves for what they are, rather than anything about Him.....
....As for the irreligious far left, they are simply given in to the opposite pursuit of the will to power and glorification of the State (themselves) over all, in the manner of fascists but with a different name. The only freedom they truly desire is the freedom to dominate and enforce their wills as superior beings. They despise the common people, and that permeates their words. They view themselves apart, and most often don't want anything to do with them after the initial struggle is done and the people have bled for them.
This is why the so-called neo-conservatives were so easily able to shift from far left to far right. They still view the world in the same distorted ways, but with different labels. As Aristotle might have said, it is all a question of balance......"
Posted by: mpinco | November 06, 2015 at 06:34 PM
Similar to "neo"-cons (not conservatives, really just "new" or former something) originating on the far left, shifting to the far right, then back to the far-left we see the same with the KKK. They were able to shift from far left to far right and then back the far left.
Posted by: mpinco | November 06, 2015 at 06:39 PM
Thinking the Republican race is down to Trump and Cruz (Rubio now has ethical issues) and Democrats are likely contingency planning a Hillary indictment.
Posted by: mpinco | November 06, 2015 at 06:45 PM
Back to the macros ......
Today's job report:
- Workers aged 55 and over: +378,000
- Workers aged 25-54: -35,000
Majority of +378K jobs were part time
Posted by: mpinco | November 06, 2015 at 07:00 PM
@Catriona
"@The Fallen, Turkey isn't an example of a "greedy right winger" taking power. It's an example of a country making a rash decision because a "greedy left winger" in the U.S. is falling down on the job of taking leadership in the Middle East."
Erdogan has been working towards this for years. The complete break-down of his foreign policies due to the civil war in Syria just forced his hand.
Posted by: Winter | November 06, 2015 at 08:21 PM
@Tomi: thanks for this posting. The left-wing Daily Kos is now claiming Dr Carson's bid is toast. This is the first I have seen of this, and not having the Tea Party mentality I do not know how damaging Carson's claims are.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/11/06/1445835/-Ben-Carson-s-very-excellent-Friday-flameout
@Fallen: "this Carson guy really scares me".
I have always pegged Carson as a Short Bus type and never worried much about him (aside from WTF are his supporters thinking? His Godlyness will make everything come out ok?) Its Cruz that gives me the willies.
@tz: "Americans on the right [...] - they aren't racists." Yet the KKK and like minded people have abandoned the Democratic party and migrated over to be Republicans. I considered myself a Republican until a radio talk show pointed out that the decline of the Democratic party began with the Civil Rights Bill. How disappointingly petty, all this turmoil because you have to treat darkies like they are humans.
"Political debate seems to be where you can't politely and reasonably disagree, you must label your opponents as stupid and/or crazy." Arguing the problems and merits of Obamacare is reasonable. Pointing out the benefits of repealing Minimum Wage even I can see (yeah! right after we eliminate the corporate veil). Cruz's plan to crash Western Civilization by having the USA default on debt payments IS stupid and crazy.
Posted by: Millard Filmore | November 06, 2015 at 08:48 PM
@mpinco: "same with the KKK. They were able to shift from far left to far right and then back the far left."
???
You will have to explain that one.
Posted by: Millard Filmore | November 06, 2015 at 08:51 PM
@mpinco: "Back to the macros ...... Today's job report:"
Yes, that's bad. So, are you keeping track of how many in each party, and splinter factions, will vote against Obama's TPP?
Posted by: Millard Filmore | November 06, 2015 at 08:56 PM
@mpinco, Rubio's "ethical issues" are nothing compared to Clinton's. He occasionally pulled out the corporate card instead of his personal card, but didn't bill the party (i.e. he paid it himself). Virtually everyone with a corporate card has done it at times, mostly accidentally. I'm thinking the nomination is basically his to lose. It could still happen, but the Establishment seems to be consolidating around him.
@Tomi, Carson is this year's Herman Cain. He isn't going to get the nomination. He's the "outsider" who has a fleeting moment of popularity because before it counts people like to say they are supporting an outsider. His support is less than Bernie Sanders' in the Democratic party. As Trump's support has faded, some of those people attached to Carson. Once Carson fades some will rally around Cruz (who might be this year's Rick Santorum).
Posted by: Catriona | November 06, 2015 at 10:31 PM
@Millard Fillmore, go onto a college campus and try to give a speech with even mainstream conservative views (i.e. a Marco Rubio or Karl Rove). The stifling of free thought has gotten so bad that even some "progressives" are beginning to feel the wrath. But it might be too late, since those tenured professors and "civil servants" in the public universities are entrenched.
As for the TPP, it is like the Keystone XL. Both are no-brainers. And since most mainstream Democrats oppose both, I think it's safe to say they have no brains. j/k. Seriously, though, most Democrats are against Keystone XL because it is fashionable to be against it. Killing it has no appreciable impact on climate change, but serves to anger a key US ally and discourage foreign direct investment. Most countries would love it if a big foreign corporation were going to invest $8 billion in infrastructure.
We do a lot of stupid things that both parties have their fingerprints all over. No other country except for Russia taxes worldwide income, and they don't have a 35% corporate rate. So it's actually easier for foreign companies to invest non-U.S. income in the U.S. than it is for American companies (no repatriation taxes to pay). So why block an attempt at foreign direct investment.
Posted by: Catriona | November 06, 2015 at 10:38 PM
@Millard
"@mpinco: "same with the KKK. They were able to shift from far left to far right and then back the far left."
???
You will have to explain that one."
The KKK was the militia arm of the Democrat Party.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ku_Klux_Klan
".....In effect, the Klan was a military force serving the interests of the Democratic party, the planter class, and all those who desired restoration of white supremacy. Its purposes were political, but political in the broadest sense, for it sought to affect power relations, both public and private, throughout Southern society. It aimed to reverse the interlocking changes sweeping over the South during Reconstruction: to destroy the Republican party's infrastructure, undermine the Reconstruction state, reestablish control of the black labor force, and restore racial subordination in every aspect of Southern life......"
The Dixiecrats, originally Democrats, also switched to the Republican Party, then returned to the Democrat Party
Urban Legends: The Dixicrats and The GOP
http://tfdf.org/blog/2011/10/24/322/
Similar to "neo"-cons who were able to shift from far left to far right and now back to the far left.
Posted by: mpinco | November 07, 2015 at 12:21 AM
Macros .....
Economic recovery?
Or expansion of the plantation through debt .... note the year the curves went near-vertical.
Here Is The Credit Bubble
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-06/here-credit-bubble
The debt will need to be paid. Declining discretionary spending?
Posted by: mpinco | November 07, 2015 at 12:25 AM
@Catriona
"@mpinco, Rubio's "ethical issues" are nothing compared to Clinton's."
Agreed. Not even close to Clinton. That said, Rubio should not have been using "corporate card" for personal items. That is a no-brainer. Which raises judgment questions.
Posted by: mpinco | November 07, 2015 at 12:38 AM
@mpinco: "The Dixiecrats, originally Democrats, also switched to the Republican Party, then returned to the Democrat Party
... Urban Legends: The Dixicrats and The GOP http://tfdf.org/blog/2011/10/24/322/
Similar to "neo"-cons who were able to shift from far left to far right and now back to the far left."
Interesting link, but the timeline seems to stop around 1965. Rumour is that Nixon took full advantage of the Dixiecrat unhappiness when he executed the Southern Strategy. I do not see the Dixiecrat influence in today's Democratic party.
@Catriona, @mpinco: have you seen this yet? Is politico an evil left-wing site that you will discount? I can't keep the labels straight any more. (like all cars since 1970 look alike to me ... except for the Delorean)
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/hillary-clinton-email-no-highly-classified-215599#ixzz3qkF14WzG
Whether by innocence or wily connivance the email thing is a dead end. Only a HUGE smoking gun will make it relevant.
Posted by: millard filmore | November 07, 2015 at 02:49 AM
@Millard
"Whether by innocence or wily connivance the email thing is a dead end. Only a HUGE smoking gun will make it relevant."
After the Benggazi fiasco, Democrats will see an indictement of Hillary as an attempted coup-d'etat. And they would be right.
In short, trying to use legal procedures at this stage to take Hillary out of the race would rightly be seen as a direct attack on US democratic process. Which is why it is exactly what the Putin fans in the Tea Party would try.
Posted by: Winter | November 07, 2015 at 08:36 AM