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« Republican Race Meets Revenge of the Math: The Delegate Count means we are headed for a long bruising battle, at least till June possibly to the Convention | Main | Form Book 2016 US Election, All Candidates on Both Sides Rated - Rubio strongest on GOP but Cruz has easiest path to nomination; either to face a steamrolling Hillary »

October 21, 2015



Must be a slow day in Tomi land ....... who watches mainstream media TV and thinks Nixon won the debate

Need to uplevel this discussion

How social media is shaping the 2016 race


So Biden's not running.


So the "Democratic" Party's coronation of an "inevitable" old white candidate is complete. Meanwhile, on the GOP side, there is still a legitimate contest between candidates with substantive differences on the issues.


Biden bows out

Pundits perspective - "Trump will dismember Hillary on the debate stage and consume the remains to raucous cheers from the audience."


And Trump on Biden?

"I think Joe Biden made correct decision for him & his family,” Trump told his millions of followers. "Personally, I would rather run against Hillary because her record is so bad.”

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi mpinco and Catriona

Yeah, Biden out. Thats not news. He was a non-factor anyway. It just confirms Hillary's coronation now that the polling turns to reality. If its just Hillary vs Bernie, her lead jumps to astronomical.

The news that so far has not had much attention is Carl Icahn. Did you notice, he just announced a SuperPAC worth 150 million dollars to advance big business causes. And he's strongly supportive of Trump's candidacy (has endorsed him, and Trump has said he'd make Icahn his Treasury Secy). This is an out-of-the-blue semi-superPAC of totally not-requested cash, in HUGE amounts, to indirectly support Trump. Remember Jeb Bush's 'shock and awe' when his SuperPAC did 100 million dollars? Icahn just raised that poker game to 150 million, in favor of Trump - without Trump even asking for that SuperPAC.

The Republican leadership is in growing panic that Trump may win it. Like I calculated, his path is the second easiest to the nomination now, just behind Ted Cruz and ahead obviously of both Marco Rubio's and Jeb Bush's path to the GOP nomination. And a ticket of Trump on top, Ted Cruz as VP is likely. Likely (if Trump doesn't drop out before June).

mpinco haha, what pundit says Trump will dismember Hillary? Like he dismembered Megyn Kelly? Trump will bitch about the debate being too long. Hillary will cut Trump up like a pinata, with a smile, like she cut up Bernie on gun control. You think there is any chance Trump can survive Hillary's attack on 'murders and rapists'? The room will explode, no matter what rules are in place that they should not interrupt the debate. Or what about Trump's whole litany of sexist comments about women? He loses the Hispanic vote to a catastrophic level, only 15% would vote for him. Women? Trump's support is far more men than women, he will be crushed in the surge of female voters... No, no evidence suggests Trump is a strong debater, on the contrary. We've seen him twice and so far, he is weak. Hillary, should have been rusty after 8 years away from the podiums, was fresh and sharp (contrast to Huckabee, also 8 years, or Santorum 4 year delay, or Obama in 2012, in his first debate back after 4 years. Hillary was a strong debater in 2008, she has returned without losing a step). No, if you are fair, you will acknowledge that Trump is weak as a TV debater (so far, he may get better) and Hillary is strong. In other areas we can argue, but this point is very clear. Even the majority of conservative experts admitted that Hillary owned that first DEM debate - while many said she was not fully tested - and nobody, NOBODY says Trump won the first or second GOP debates.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

BTW all..

what do you think of my nice little Trojan Horse joke? It seemed very plausible from the beginning but recently nobody has been mentioning it. But look, even the Trey Gowdy comment yesterday. Someone said it that if Bill and Hillary had tried to invent the perfect undermining candidate for the Republican side, they could not have conceived of how much Trump has helped Hillary so far. He took out Walker, he took out Perry, he has pretty close to castrated Jeb Bush and is now doing it to Fiorina, Rubio, Christie etc. In the end, even if Trump suddenly says, 'actually I don't want it' - that leaves Ted Cruz with the nomination, who will go down in flames. Trump has brought all kinds of nonsense out of the candidates already and he's gonna be in it at least to January, by all signs. He is single-handedly destroying the Republican party... don't you agree?

Then that convenient joke conspiracy theory about 'that' phone call with Bill Clinton... imagine if this was actually conceived by a 'secret Democrat' Trump.

Tomi Ahonen :-)


"Then that convenient joke conspiracy theory about 'that' phone call with Bill Clinton... imagine if this was actually conceived by a 'secret Democrat' Trump."

Those are the most devious conspiracies. Where it is said from the start that it is a conspiracy,nudge nudge, wink wink, haha.

You will see this theory gaining strength. Especially among Tea party members. And that will damage Trumpzilla and help Hillary.


I wouldn't put it past Trump or the Clintons. He is basically a Democrat, and they are pretty ruthless people. On the other hand, why would you want somebody like that as president (either Clinton or Trump)? Maybe Jonathan Gruber was on to something.


With Biden officially out, we do lose the de facto "generic Democrat" polling factor, which up until now had shown that Hillary dragged down Democratic support.


"I wouldn't put it past Trump or the Clintons. He is basically a Democrat, and they are pretty ruthless people."

See, it already started.

"On the other hand, why would you want somebody like that as president (either Clinton or Trump)?"

I am pretty sure many Americans have had that thought with every GOP candidate in their life time. Does not seem to be a valid departure of evaluation of the strength of a candidate.

A better question is to ask whether there are voters who think this candidate will protect their interests. And how many Americans would think like that?


Hillary's issue is that the electorate has already declared her a liar and guilty. Untrustworthy and therefore disqualified on issues. Who cares what she says. Gun control is the most recent data point. Flip flop liar

Sanders wants the post office to be a bank.......

Overall the anti-establishment sentiment is being felt by both Democrats and Republican leaderships.

The economic trajectory will only strengthen this sentiment. In fact Hillary is the "face" of the establishment. LOL Ask Carly ....... Hello Carly? What happened?


What does the Left think of Hillary?

Hillary Clinton on Social Security Expansion: Words are Wind. A Cold Wind.

The Left has also come to the conclusion that Hillary is untrustworthy and therefore disqualified. They no longer listen to her speak aloud, preferring to read transcripts and highlight the selection of words.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi all

I took a quick look at the recent polls and what effect removing Joe Biden is, to make it four-way race Hillary, Bernie, O'Malley and whatshisname-Jaffee. Well, several of the polls have the two-way race without Joe, in addition to the three-way race that RCP reports (still currently, I know they will soon switch to remove Joe). What will the advantage be? Try 25 point lead for Hillary. Yes. Landslide territory, more than half of Democrats want her, even if we leave the undecideds in, and her lead over Bernie is almost two to 1. There is no race.

And you mpinco, haha, come on. What you posted, what you linked to, what you are writing. I recognize your must be in denial and it hurts, but seriously, more than half of Democrats want Hillary. There is no rejection of her. Most who support Bernie will take Hillary also gladly or at least bergudgingly, none of those who would support Bernie would vote for Jeb or Marco or Ted haha (nor Trump nor Dr Carson nor Fiorina). The Hillary race is over. The REAL race is the Trump war. Can he remain on the top, once the Republicans figure out they really want to bring him down. It will be not unlike Gulliver and the Lilliputs. And part of the problem is, that nobody really wants to spend their own money to take down Trump, they all hope someone else will.

But the next GOP debate will be interesting. Fiorina, Christie, Jeb, Rubio, Paul and Huckabee had already attacked Trump previously. And Fiorina and Rubio both saw bumps in their polling after doing that, and Jeb saw his drop in polling stall, after he stood up to Trump. When might Kasich join in the fight. Will Ted Cruz break with his past, and finally say something nasty about Trump or will he still stay in that pact with Ben Carson and Trump that they don't attack each other. And how much might any of them be intimidated by counter-attacks by Trump. Plus Trump himself. He came in cocky and ill-prepared last time. Don't expect him to make that mistake this time. I think Trump comes 'as himself' and will be belligerent more like in the first debate. It could be epic fireworks on the CNBC debate.

PS don't forget Hillary's dress rehearsal of the national debates against her Republican rival, which is tomorrow (ie today my time) when she faces the hostile Benghazi committee - on TV. That Hillary is the same one who will be showing up against Ted Cruz or Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio or Donald Trump, whichever of those four becomes the Republican nominee. Chelsea Clinton already said her mom was prepped for the hearings, ie Chelsea has been watching the prep. Hillary knows there will be a huge TV audience and anything she says is potentially damaging videotape against her, or potentially victorious success against the Republicans for her side. Compared to the lazy 'sparring' she did against Bernie in the Democratic debate, this Benghazi hearing, that is Hillary's first 'real debate' of this season. Looking at Trey Gowdy and how lost and clueless he is in front of reporters, I think this will be Hillary crushing that committee like stealing candy from a baby. But we'll see tomorrow. Regardless, we know now, beyond any doubt, Hillary will win her nomination without any real fight. What we will see tomorrow in the Benghazi hearing, is Hillary's first 'serious' challenge in a debate-type setting, on national TV, against Republicans, who tried to set up traps for her, without it being even, she can't grill them. So she walks in the severe underdog. Yet, I can't help thinking she'll devour them like a lion eats a zebra.

Tune in tomorrow, we'll discuss it afterwards..

Tomi Ahonen :-)


Not in denial, just amused at the MSM inability to deal with the landscape. Consider the following with my position that I am undecided.

Agreed Hillary has been coroneted, but that is the problem. She carries too much baggage and is viewed as the establishment, in an anti-establishment mood year. Many Democrats would consider voting for another candidate on either side of the aisle. I know independents who want to register as Democrats just to vote for Sanders (anti-Hillary). They will either sit out of the election of vote Republican. They hate her that much. I will repeat, she is seen as a liar and untrustworthy. You say half of Democrats want Hillary. OK, does that say half the Democrats will sit out or vote Republican? Probably enough to send Hillary to defeat. Which is what the Democrat establishment is worried about!

Trump has his issues and baggage but is on the other side of the anti-establishment mood.

Time will tell.

Amusing that the NY Post called Hillary vs. Trump ...... in July


A good example of pundits all over the road.

Are we dealing with something we haven't seen before?

Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible

You know Tomi, similar to disruptive technology?

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi mpinco

Seriously? Trump. The dude with the hair. You are aware that this is tested, regularly, by polling so called 'head to head'. And Hillary has held the RCP polling average lead vs Trump from when they started testing this possibility. I can accept that perhaps Trump can change the game and bring some new voters in and perhaps grow as a candidate. But you are living in denial if you think that Hillary's negatives overcome TRUMP'S HUGE negatives. She has led EVERY aveerage RCP has published about their matchup. EVERY ONE. If you wanted to argue on behalf of Dr Carson, I would have to admit, that the polling suggests she would lose to him, but not to Trump. You are being delusional. The facts are utterly against your hope and desire.

On the pundit view, haha, big deal. What have I been telling you here? I was the first to say he might win the nomination, I was the first to map out that even in a 3-way race of Trump as Independent, there is a mathematical curiosity that could even get Trump to win the actual election (except that Hillary would never be that dumb to fall for that maneuver) and I've told you guys here, that Trump is becoming viable to win. And that currently he has genuinely the second easiest path to the nomination - but that in every case, I have stressed, Trump on the ticket means the Republicans lose really severly. Not just lose the Presidency but lose the Senate and risk the House. That is how bad it will be with Trump. If there is an anti-Hillary vote, it is superceded by an anti-Trump vote - the evidence is VERY CLEAR because that EXPLICIT point has been tested for months now. He can't win against her. Its not possible. But I also explain here patiently that Trump's gender gap is massive. HUUUUUGE. His Hispanic problem is toxic. Only 15% of Hispanics would vote for him, that means he cannot win the general election! So say REPUBLICANS. So mpinco. Your hatered of Hillary is clear. That may be relevant against Dr Carson. Against Trump it has been testd not to matter enough. His negatives are far worse. So explain to me, where is his constituency? Who, apart from the wackos who think Obama is a Muslim or that Obama will annex Texas or who think Mexicans are strolling over the border and raping the women and killing the people on the border. Who else will vote for him? Who? You really think evangelicals who were disgusted by Trump talking about coming to church to eat that cookie and get his redemption. There is no constituency coalition large enough for him to win. That doesn't exist. Does't exist. But yes he can win the Republican nomination, because 30% can win it in this wide field if 10 candidates continue up to March 15.

PS - everybody, Mike Murphy (Bush's guy) has just run a discussion at Bloomberg about the delegate math, very very similar to what I wrote, but Murphy of course spins it as Jeb's big advantage. And yes, exactly same logic and dates and states. He says Jeb can hang around in 3rd and 4th place for hte early states, then use his money to go big on March 1, and by March 15, Jeb can lead the delegate count (and Murphy even talks about the Florida scenario, obviously he assumes Jeb beats Rubio in Florida). Haha, only days after I posted my blog. Except my blog covers all candidates. I am sure we'll be getting more who will all have essentially the same logic and math as I had. The math is the same.... but delegate math is hard, polling analysis is easy.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Hillary is Scum

Anyone else noticed that Tomi, as much as he's proficient at mobile, he's equally totally clueless in the political realm.
Hilary Clinton is an evil, cloven-hooved political whore.

I'm all in on having a female in the US white-house, but Hillary is filthy scum.
Is this the best we have to offer from the fairer sex?

Elizabeth Warren has more class in her little finger and can easily wipe her arse with the best parts of Hillary Clinton.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Hillary

Ok, clearly you don't like her, and most Republicans will agree with you and even a good deal of Democrats will agree with you. She is not a saint. She is very ambitious and driven and she most definitely has exhibited a 'moral flexibility' to things like say, the absolute truth haha... On Elizabeth Warren, I agree she has more class but she is yet too inexperienced to run a national campaign (especially against Hillary). She is ambitious too, she will have a very prominent role in Hillary's Cabinet (likely Treasury Secretary) and her time will come.

Now, if you go through history, the first woman to break through that glass ceiling tends to be very tough, and it asks for quite a lot of determination, to the degree that very many will say, the 'woman' is no longer 'feminine' or 'gentle'. Look at Margaret Thatcher (widely hated and feared before she became Prime Minister, and only slightly more appreciated by the time she left office, still today many Brits hate her memory) or say Golda Meir. That first woman to pierce that barrier also in business often requires a degree of ruthlessness - haha witness Carly Fiorina over at HP, hardly a nice woman, gosh, she's a total bitch-on-wheels level witch. She makes Hillary seem like Mother Teresa (and gosh, as a political observer, I'd really love to see that pairing, have those two go at it, in TV debates, if Fiorina was the Republican nominee, but that is now quite unlikely).

That all being said, 'Tomi clueless in political realm' - seriously? When I wrote my 2016 election preview in October of 2014 - two YEARS before the voting starts, it was the most comprehensive preview of the election by anyone up to that point. Many of the points I made then, nobody had yet said. I said that the Republican race would be a huge mess because of both the wide range of candidates and the corruptive role of Billionaire money. Nobody was saying that in 2014 looking towards the 2016 election. I said that the Democratic race was a cakewalk for Hillary. Until Joe Biden dropped out, most pundits felt that there was a race on the Democratic side. I could go on. So far I have not made one wrong call about the 2016 election except that - like everybody else at the time - I also thought Trump would only last a month on the top. He's now been 3 months but he is now starting to fade (by the new polls yesterday from Iowa and Wisconsin where Ben Carson has passed Trump). When I have come up with blogs about news of the 2016 race, the items have often been the first anywhere to discuss that fact (like just now, the Delegate Math) and they have been remarkably insightful - and so far either totally relevant and correct (like how the Fox debate rules brought out the madness from the Republican candidates) or else their impact can't yet be seen but have not been proven wrong (the role of the Pope's cyclical on the Environment).

So yeah, Hillary, actually, I am VERY proud of the contributions to the political race insights that I have written here. Each of those blogs stands as a real contribution, haha, except the jokes. I know my ability to be funny is only very modest, so the jokes are somewhat lame. But hey, its my blog.

But Hillary, I challenge you, please read the past political blogs and tell me here, where was I wrong, on something I predicted or analyzed, that we can now determine the truth? Where was I clueless. I don't mean, is it being 'clueless' to argue that Hillary is gonna win the Democratic nomination or that she's gonna win the general election too. That can't be determined yet. I mean some of the things I told you here, for example that there will be more Billionaires to pick personal candidates than ever before? Who else said that? Where did you read any political blogger discuss that angle (and list Billionaires from the 2012 election and their candidates). There are several who have NOW seen the story, after they filings by the SuperPAC committees and their funding, but who wrote about this in February, long before those filings? Nobody. Nobody talked about the Presidential Poker, the Billionaire Bingo that is now happening with at least 18 Billionaires already announced.

Yeah, Tomi 'clueless in political realm' - the claim sounds strong. Can you back it up with anything that I wrote?

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi all

The big Form Book is now posted. Every stat you could hope for related to the US election. All candidates scored and all the dirt is there too, like who are their personal Billionaires..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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