(The Communities Dominate blog has acquired the secret recording of the phone call between Donald Trump and Bill Clinton, just before Trump announced he is running for office. It is revealing on what was discussed)
Hi Don, how are you?
I’m fine, Bill, how are you, and how’s the missus?
She’s fine, running for President. Thanks for asking. What’s on your mind.
Can I help you in some way? The Foundation, can I send you some money? Or Hillary’s campaign, would you like me to send you a million?
No, Don, honestly, we are good. We may come to you later, but right now, there is no need for more money.
Well, I feel I have to do something. There are so many issues where you two are on the right side of history and we have to get things fixed. Like Obamacare. Its yes a small step in the right direction, but its never going to work if so many are still uninsured. It has to be a national socialized medicine solution like Hillarycare.
Yeah we know.
And the taxes. I love not paying as much in taxes as my secretary or my daughter, but it is unfair, and I would not mind the least in paying the same. Those Bush tax cuts were moronic. He’s a moron, like his moron brother and their moron dad.
Yeah, no argument here.
But yeah, taxes. Come on, I’d be ok with paying somewhat higher taxes than the average, we don’t need lesser taxes for billionaires! We have enough money to live. Its the poorest who need some relief, especially after the past decade.
I know, that is partly what Hillary is pushing.
Yeah, I know. But look at that buffoon Mitt Romney, even in a pure economy election he lost to a sitting President whose popularity was under 50%. Only a loser could throw that election away.
Yeah, we laughed about that with Hillary.
So yeah, is there anything I could do? Are you sure you don’t want a million, I could write the check right now, I have my checkbook open. What is it that you really want, Bill?
Haha, you know what would be funny, if you ran for the Republican ticket.
Haha, yeah.
No, for real this time. Not just this coy game of ‘will Trump run’ but imagine if you ran for real. Don’t think of it as a job, think of it as a reality TV show, where you would play the role of a fictional extreme Conservative President. Like Ronald Reagan played that role in the 1980s.
Haha, yeah, that could work, I could do that.
So imagine the issue with the wall at the Mexican border. What would the most extreme Republican nominee do? He wouldn’t just say build a wall...
He’d say I will build the biggest wall!
Yes, the best, most beautiful wall ever.
Yeah, and you know, a Trump Wall, if my company was to build it, I would make it the biggest gold-plated shiny wall that ever existed. One with shining neon lights all night and so huge, it would be visible from space!
You would, wouldn’t you?
Yes, and then I’d say it wouldn’t cost anything.
How come?
Because I’d say I would make the Mexicans pay for it
Hahahahahahaaa, you’re killing me.
Yeah, this could work
And it could be fun. How about immigration. What is the most extreme position you can think of?
I’d deport them all. No amnesty, not even for kids born here.
Yeah, that would get the racists vote. You’d start off with what, 3% maybe 5% of the Republican vote straight on the day you announced.
Then there is that moron McCain. I hate it that he gets that hero treatment. I’d call him out on that, the wimp.
Yeah, that probably would get you the anti-McCain vote. There is plenty of military veterans who probably would be annoyed, but the small anti-McCain vote would find the ‘first sane’ voice in years and would rally to your side.
How big do you think that would be?
Not big, but several percent for sure. Say 5%.
So I’d be at 10%. Thats still not worth doing.
Remember the field is 15 candidates, you’d only need to cross 20% to win Iowa, haha
Ok, what else is there that can be grabbed.
How about the anti-media vote. If you attack a TV celebrity like say Megyn Kelly, you’d be a hero for standing against the lame-stream media, like Sarah Palin calls them
Yeah, besides she’s a bit too cocky, I wouldn’t mind giving her some of my New York mind in some interview
Or a TV debate
Yeah, TV debate, big audience, even better. Yeah, in a TV debate. How big do you think that voter base would be?
I think you’d get another 5% maybe even 10% if you attacked the media through a clear icon. Plus the bonus is that she’s a woman, you’d enrage some women but they’d be voting for Hillary anyway
And I wouldn’t mind that, Hillary’s gonna win anyway
But you would get some of the oppressed male vote who fear strong women. I’d say you’re at 20% if you did all that.
Hey, this is easy. What else can I go for
Well, then there are the myths with the Bush years.
Oh, yeah, I hate all those lies that took us to the wars, and the anti-terrorist propaganda that got us the spying and nonsense.
Yeah, I think Jeb Bush might be vulnerable on his brother.
Haha, I could jab him about that ‘he kept us safe’ silliness that the right wing bozoz are aping on Fox.
Gosh, that would yes anger the Cheney-Rumsfeld warmonger wing
Would there be more votes in that?
Actually yes, a part of the Republican base actually hate the Bush dynasty, not unlike some in our Democratic party fear Hillary for a Clinton dynasty
Wait until they see President Chelsea the third Clinton, thats when they should be worried
Haha, yeah, we’re grooming her, but lets take Hillary there first.
So you think Bush has haters
For sure, probably a third of the Republican base, but you would not get them all because some you’d already have, and many would be turned against your other comments. But I’d say you could get to say 25% if you attacked Jeb relentlessly
He’s actually a nice guy, not really killer instinct like his dad or his dumb brother, I’d hate to do that to Jeb
But remember Don, you’d be acting a part. What would JR Ewing do on Dallas? He’d be ruthless. That is how you should think. Like the TV Trump, you’re fired!
And Jeb is certainly too wimpy to be President. Gosh he has no energy.
That could be your base line of attack, haha, Jeb is low energy.
But he is!
Yes, he is. He’s like he’s still slightly stoned. But I bet it would get under his skin real fast, if you repeated it in every interview, and in the debates
So Jeb is low energy. Yeah, that would be easy.
Then the others are pretty easy actually. You don’t need to worry about those candidates who would be crushed in a general election like Ted Cruz or Dr Ben Carson. But take Carly Fiorina
She was a really bad CEO, the whole Board voted her out unanimously. She was on worst CEO lists. I can’t believe the Republicans are even promoting her candidacy
Its the woman thing, they need a token woman on that debate stage, because of Hillary. She’s a horrible candidate
Didn’t she lose her race in California
Yeah she was crushed by Barbara Boxer for Senate, lost by like 20 points. She’s poison in a general election. But think about it, Don, if one of the Governors or Senators says something about her business background, she can bullshit herself into a clear position, her cash flow this, her revenues that. You’re the business guy
And I’m way richer than she is
You are.
Carly ran that company into such a mess, its a disgrace. HP only grew revenues because she made that moronic acquisition of Compaq. I remember even thinking back then, what is she doing.
And then she fired 30,000 employees while buying 5 corporate jets.
Haha, yeah, that means she’s unelectable.
But Don, which Republican Governor or Senator is going to explain that to their voters? Rick Perry? He can’t even count to three
Yeah, and I did robo-calls for him, I felt so ashamed after that.
But yeah, then take Marco Rubio
Who is a nice guy, but he’s way too young for this and a one-term Senator, he’s way above his league.
What would the TV carricature rival say about Rubio in a debate?
That he sweats too much and drinks too much water
Hahahahaha you crack me up
Yeah, I could do this.
Don, you can do this in your sleep. You know them all, you’ve met them all, you know what their real weaknesses are. Take Scott Walker, the true conservative
Walker? Of Wisconsin? His state budget is a joke. He’s destroying the state. The roads are a mess, the schools are a disaster. His popularity is poison. He wouldn’t get re-elected dog catcher. He’s campaigning in Iowa only because he would face death threats in his home state of Wisconsin.
Haha yeah, thats what I mean. Someone should be saying these things. I mean, there are sensible moderate candidates running, who would be good for America and make an honest debate with Hillary
Yeah like Kasich and Pataki
Yeah, there are sensible ones in there, and say what you want about Jindal but he’s tried to get the Republicans back from being the loonie party and become once again a sensible party. And Rand Paul is reaching out to the black community, they are not all bad.
So if I did run, there is a ceiling of what, 25%
Yeah, 25% maybe 30%. But remember, if 15 rivals run for Iowa, you only need 20% to win. Then you get momentum and 25% can win you New Hampshire.
I could even win it. But that will be expensive
Maybe not. I think a normal politician like Hillary or me or anyone there running, we would have to pay a lot in TV advertising, at least 100 million in the primary season and 1 Billion dollars in the general election
I’m not paying a billion for this. Not even 100 million.
But Don, a celebrity
Like me?
Yeah, a celebrity like you, would get on TV just by saying something outrageous
Like lets deport all Mexicans
Haha and if that doesn’t work, why not say all Mexicans are rapists and murderers
Hahahaha, yeah, rapists. And murderers. That would certainly get me on TV. This could be fun
Think of it as a deliberate parody of a candidate
Like Jon Stewart and the Daily Show but done live, without editing
Can you imagine being on Fox and then suddenly saying your favorite past president is not a Bush
Its you
I know, thanks but yes, can you imagine how conservative heads explode if ‘their’ Donald Trump says Bill Clinton was the best president in recent history? Haha, that would set the Fox people screaming with their hair on fire
Yes. That would be front line news on all TV channels.
It certainly would.
And then I’d suddenly say that Obamacare is not going far enough, the USA needs a socialist single-payer medical system like in Canada
And Fox would think of boycotting you
But they couldn’t boycott me, if I was at 20% and in first place in the polling
Not only that, but the very issue of a TV channel boycott would be news
Or I could boycott them!
Haha, yes, thats even better! Yes, you have an ongoing feud with Fox, boycotting them every few weeks. Its news when your boycott starts, and its news again, when the boycott ends. And you are in the news all the time
Which would mean the others have less TV coverage
Exactly. In fact, if they run TV ads, their ads will have almost no effect if you hog all the news air time.
I should charge them for using me to raise their viewerships.
Haha, yeah, thats true, and actually, if you were in first place, I bet the debates would get a huge boost in their viewership
They would, people love me
They do, Don, they do
The ratings would be the best they’ve ever been
Thats true. But now think, what if in those debates, you were to say that you want higher taxes for the rich
And that the Iraq war was a disaster
That would be actually quite healthy for the Republican party
Which is now infected by the Tea Party madness
Yeah, that would be funny. You running for real. And if you could keep coming up with outrageous things to say, you could stay on TV almost indefinitely, and where all rivals need 100 million to run a national campaign with TV ads, your campaign would cost you almost nothing
And I could release a new biography
I bet it would sell well
And I could sell hats
Haha yeah why not take Reagan’s motto - Lets Make America Great Again
Thats a great idea. Would look great on a hat. Totally my style. How was it
Lets Make America Great Again
Couldn’t it be ‘Make America Great Again’
Yeah, it could. Would fit better on bumber stickers
And on hats
Yeah I bet you could make millions just selling those hats
And I would like to inspire Americans to Make America Great Again
Yeah, no wonder they called him the Great Communicator. But remember, Don, that too will be an issue for you
What do you mean
Some journalist will notice its nearly the same as Reagan’s slogan. You should make that the issue of the day, you stealing from Reagan
So I should deny it
Vehemently yes, claim it is totally not the same
But anyone can see its exactly the same
No, Don, you’re forgetting. A sensible candidate admits the truth. The most delusional Republican extremist would never admit that truth. Think of Frank Underwood on House of Cards
Yes, yes, now I get it. Haha, yeah, I deny deny deny. Everything
Everything.
So there is no similarity with my hat and Reagan’s slogan
Thats it. Deny everything. You’re playing a part. Imagine Nixon coming back and insisting still, that he is not a crook
Yeah, I could do this. Then after calling Mexicans murderers
And rapists
Yes murderers and rapists, I would say, but I love Hispanics and they love me
hahaha, yes, yes, then add that they will vote for you by huge margins
By enormous margins. Huuuge.
Same with women, same with veterans
Hey, isn’t there that one loonie veterans group that has no members? I could arrange a fund-raiser with them on the condition that he endorses me
I’m sure he’d do that for 100 dollars haha, they are nearly broke if I recall
Yeah, then I can claim the veterans love me, even after I mock McCain’s heroism
Haha, yeah, do that the George W Bush way, on an aircraft carrier
Or on a battleship, in front of the big guns
Yeah, I can see you, wearing the hat ‘Make America Great Again’ with two giant navy guns alongside your head.
This is easy
And much more fun than running another season of Apprentice, you could give that to you daughter to run
She’d love that. Yeah this actually makes a lot of sense. So when do I quit
Well, ideally you destroy the worst threats, say you get Walker, Perry, Bush, Christie, Fiorina out of the race, then you could say you’ve had enough, and just announce you quit. But schedule your book launch well before that, so you get another bestseller to your list
So run maybe through November or December
You could also go for the Iowa and New Hampshire elections, February, if your polling holds.
Haha, and then I could of course drop the bomb about the farce of the Benghazi hearings and that clown Trey Gowdy.
Haha, gosh, Hillary would love you for that. She’d appoint you Ambassador to Monaco if you wanted some diplomatic immunity in a casino country.
You're on. But Bill, you're not recording this, are you?
Don't worry, Don, its only going to our old server in our basement. Its not used for anything relevant, I think it stores Hillary's emails. Nobody will ever get to it.
(This blog is a joke entry, by Tomi T Ahonen/HatRat, no Trumps or Clintons were harmed or even waterboarded in creating this joke)
My latest serious blog about US 2016 election is this, the first analysis anywhere that does the tull delegate math for the nomination fight. Lots of math stats and very detailed.
My next poltiical blog will be the 'form book' covering all candidates from polling and fund-raising to debates, electability and path to nomination. Also includes their sugar-daddy billonaires
My previous joke blog about the US 2016 election is this: on the return of the GOP clown car
And if you want my 2016 previews, the general election preview is here (very long, detailed, full of numbers and stats) and the preview of the nomination battle 2016 is here.
Finally, as this blog is a tech/mobile/new media blog, the last time I discussed the use of tech in politics to win using modern digital media (2012 election) the deepest analysis of tech use in an election, with tons and tons of cases and stats, is here. This analysis has been referenced to in several published books already, its the deepest of its kind in the world.
Meanwhile, in non-political stuff, my main focus here IS tech and mobile and new media. My last blog about those topics was an update of mobile industry stats from subscribers to mobile internet to messaging.
Must be a slow day in Tomi land ....... who watches mainstream media TV and thinks Nixon won the debate
Need to uplevel this discussion
How social media is shaping the 2016 race
http://www.roughtype.com/?p=6606
Posted by: mpinco | October 21, 2015 at 05:20 PM
So Biden's not running.
Posted by: Catriona | October 21, 2015 at 05:30 PM
So the "Democratic" Party's coronation of an "inevitable" old white candidate is complete. Meanwhile, on the GOP side, there is still a legitimate contest between candidates with substantive differences on the issues.
Posted by: Catriona | October 21, 2015 at 05:33 PM
Biden bows out
Pundits perspective - "Trump will dismember Hillary on the debate stage and consume the remains to raucous cheers from the audience."
Posted by: mpinco | October 21, 2015 at 07:32 PM
And Trump on Biden?
"I think Joe Biden made correct decision for him & his family,” Trump told his millions of followers. "Personally, I would rather run against Hillary because her record is so bad.”
Posted by: mpinco | October 21, 2015 at 07:42 PM
Hi mpinco and Catriona
Yeah, Biden out. Thats not news. He was a non-factor anyway. It just confirms Hillary's coronation now that the polling turns to reality. If its just Hillary vs Bernie, her lead jumps to astronomical.
The news that so far has not had much attention is Carl Icahn. Did you notice, he just announced a SuperPAC worth 150 million dollars to advance big business causes. And he's strongly supportive of Trump's candidacy (has endorsed him, and Trump has said he'd make Icahn his Treasury Secy). This is an out-of-the-blue semi-superPAC of totally not-requested cash, in HUGE amounts, to indirectly support Trump. Remember Jeb Bush's 'shock and awe' when his SuperPAC did 100 million dollars? Icahn just raised that poker game to 150 million, in favor of Trump - without Trump even asking for that SuperPAC.
The Republican leadership is in growing panic that Trump may win it. Like I calculated, his path is the second easiest to the nomination now, just behind Ted Cruz and ahead obviously of both Marco Rubio's and Jeb Bush's path to the GOP nomination. And a ticket of Trump on top, Ted Cruz as VP is likely. Likely (if Trump doesn't drop out before June).
mpinco haha, what pundit says Trump will dismember Hillary? Like he dismembered Megyn Kelly? Trump will bitch about the debate being too long. Hillary will cut Trump up like a pinata, with a smile, like she cut up Bernie on gun control. You think there is any chance Trump can survive Hillary's attack on 'murders and rapists'? The room will explode, no matter what rules are in place that they should not interrupt the debate. Or what about Trump's whole litany of sexist comments about women? He loses the Hispanic vote to a catastrophic level, only 15% would vote for him. Women? Trump's support is far more men than women, he will be crushed in the surge of female voters... No, no evidence suggests Trump is a strong debater, on the contrary. We've seen him twice and so far, he is weak. Hillary, should have been rusty after 8 years away from the podiums, was fresh and sharp (contrast to Huckabee, also 8 years, or Santorum 4 year delay, or Obama in 2012, in his first debate back after 4 years. Hillary was a strong debater in 2008, she has returned without losing a step). No, if you are fair, you will acknowledge that Trump is weak as a TV debater (so far, he may get better) and Hillary is strong. In other areas we can argue, but this point is very clear. Even the majority of conservative experts admitted that Hillary owned that first DEM debate - while many said she was not fully tested - and nobody, NOBODY says Trump won the first or second GOP debates.
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | October 21, 2015 at 08:13 PM
BTW all..
what do you think of my nice little Trojan Horse joke? It seemed very plausible from the beginning but recently nobody has been mentioning it. But look, even the Trey Gowdy comment yesterday. Someone said it that if Bill and Hillary had tried to invent the perfect undermining candidate for the Republican side, they could not have conceived of how much Trump has helped Hillary so far. He took out Walker, he took out Perry, he has pretty close to castrated Jeb Bush and is now doing it to Fiorina, Rubio, Christie etc. In the end, even if Trump suddenly says, 'actually I don't want it' - that leaves Ted Cruz with the nomination, who will go down in flames. Trump has brought all kinds of nonsense out of the candidates already and he's gonna be in it at least to January, by all signs. He is single-handedly destroying the Republican party... don't you agree?
Then that convenient joke conspiracy theory about 'that' phone call with Bill Clinton... imagine if this was actually conceived by a 'secret Democrat' Trump.
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | October 21, 2015 at 08:20 PM
@Tomi
"Then that convenient joke conspiracy theory about 'that' phone call with Bill Clinton... imagine if this was actually conceived by a 'secret Democrat' Trump."
Those are the most devious conspiracies. Where it is said from the start that it is a conspiracy,nudge nudge, wink wink, haha.
You will see this theory gaining strength. Especially among Tea party members. And that will damage Trumpzilla and help Hillary.
Posted by: Winter | October 21, 2015 at 08:36 PM
I wouldn't put it past Trump or the Clintons. He is basically a Democrat, and they are pretty ruthless people. On the other hand, why would you want somebody like that as president (either Clinton or Trump)? Maybe Jonathan Gruber was on to something.
Posted by: Catriona | October 21, 2015 at 08:46 PM
With Biden officially out, we do lose the de facto "generic Democrat" polling factor, which up until now had shown that Hillary dragged down Democratic support.
Posted by: Catriona | October 21, 2015 at 08:48 PM
@Catriona
"I wouldn't put it past Trump or the Clintons. He is basically a Democrat, and they are pretty ruthless people."
See, it already started.
@Catriona
"On the other hand, why would you want somebody like that as president (either Clinton or Trump)?"
I am pretty sure many Americans have had that thought with every GOP candidate in their life time. Does not seem to be a valid departure of evaluation of the strength of a candidate.
A better question is to ask whether there are voters who think this candidate will protect their interests. And how many Americans would think like that?
Posted by: Winter | October 21, 2015 at 09:06 PM
Hillary's issue is that the electorate has already declared her a liar and guilty. Untrustworthy and therefore disqualified on issues. Who cares what she says. Gun control is the most recent data point. Flip flop liar
Sanders wants the post office to be a bank.......
Overall the anti-establishment sentiment is being felt by both Democrats and Republican leaderships.
The economic trajectory will only strengthen this sentiment. In fact Hillary is the "face" of the establishment. LOL Ask Carly ....... Hello Carly? What happened?
Posted by: mpinco | October 21, 2015 at 09:46 PM
What does the Left think of Hillary?
Hillary Clinton on Social Security Expansion: Words are Wind. A Cold Wind.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/10/hillary-clinton-on-social-security-expansion-words-are-wind-a-cold-wind.html
The Left has also come to the conclusion that Hillary is untrustworthy and therefore disqualified. They no longer listen to her speak aloud, preferring to read transcripts and highlight the selection of words.
Posted by: mpinco | October 21, 2015 at 10:09 PM
Hi all
I took a quick look at the recent polls and what effect removing Joe Biden is, to make it four-way race Hillary, Bernie, O'Malley and whatshisname-Jaffee. Well, several of the polls have the two-way race without Joe, in addition to the three-way race that RCP reports (still currently, I know they will soon switch to remove Joe). What will the advantage be? Try 25 point lead for Hillary. Yes. Landslide territory, more than half of Democrats want her, even if we leave the undecideds in, and her lead over Bernie is almost two to 1. There is no race.
And you mpinco, haha, come on. What you posted, what you linked to, what you are writing. I recognize your must be in denial and it hurts, but seriously, more than half of Democrats want Hillary. There is no rejection of her. Most who support Bernie will take Hillary also gladly or at least bergudgingly, none of those who would support Bernie would vote for Jeb or Marco or Ted haha (nor Trump nor Dr Carson nor Fiorina). The Hillary race is over. The REAL race is the Trump war. Can he remain on the top, once the Republicans figure out they really want to bring him down. It will be not unlike Gulliver and the Lilliputs. And part of the problem is, that nobody really wants to spend their own money to take down Trump, they all hope someone else will.
But the next GOP debate will be interesting. Fiorina, Christie, Jeb, Rubio, Paul and Huckabee had already attacked Trump previously. And Fiorina and Rubio both saw bumps in their polling after doing that, and Jeb saw his drop in polling stall, after he stood up to Trump. When might Kasich join in the fight. Will Ted Cruz break with his past, and finally say something nasty about Trump or will he still stay in that pact with Ben Carson and Trump that they don't attack each other. And how much might any of them be intimidated by counter-attacks by Trump. Plus Trump himself. He came in cocky and ill-prepared last time. Don't expect him to make that mistake this time. I think Trump comes 'as himself' and will be belligerent more like in the first debate. It could be epic fireworks on the CNBC debate.
PS don't forget Hillary's dress rehearsal of the national debates against her Republican rival, which is tomorrow (ie today my time) when she faces the hostile Benghazi committee - on TV. That Hillary is the same one who will be showing up against Ted Cruz or Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio or Donald Trump, whichever of those four becomes the Republican nominee. Chelsea Clinton already said her mom was prepped for the hearings, ie Chelsea has been watching the prep. Hillary knows there will be a huge TV audience and anything she says is potentially damaging videotape against her, or potentially victorious success against the Republicans for her side. Compared to the lazy 'sparring' she did against Bernie in the Democratic debate, this Benghazi hearing, that is Hillary's first 'real debate' of this season. Looking at Trey Gowdy and how lost and clueless he is in front of reporters, I think this will be Hillary crushing that committee like stealing candy from a baby. But we'll see tomorrow. Regardless, we know now, beyond any doubt, Hillary will win her nomination without any real fight. What we will see tomorrow in the Benghazi hearing, is Hillary's first 'serious' challenge in a debate-type setting, on national TV, against Republicans, who tried to set up traps for her, without it being even, she can't grill them. So she walks in the severe underdog. Yet, I can't help thinking she'll devour them like a lion eats a zebra.
Tune in tomorrow, we'll discuss it afterwards..
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | October 21, 2015 at 10:54 PM
Not in denial, just amused at the MSM inability to deal with the landscape. Consider the following with my position that I am undecided.
Agreed Hillary has been coroneted, but that is the problem. She carries too much baggage and is viewed as the establishment, in an anti-establishment mood year. Many Democrats would consider voting for another candidate on either side of the aisle. I know independents who want to register as Democrats just to vote for Sanders (anti-Hillary). They will either sit out of the election of vote Republican. They hate her that much. I will repeat, she is seen as a liar and untrustworthy. You say half of Democrats want Hillary. OK, does that say half the Democrats will sit out or vote Republican? Probably enough to send Hillary to defeat. Which is what the Democrat establishment is worried about!
Trump has his issues and baggage but is on the other side of the anti-establishment mood.
Time will tell.
Amusing that the NY Post called Hillary vs. Trump ...... in July
Posted by: mpinco | October 21, 2015 at 11:54 PM
A good example of pundits all over the road.
Are we dealing with something we haven't seen before?
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-doomed-andor-invincible/
You know Tomi, similar to disruptive technology?
Posted by: mpinco | October 22, 2015 at 12:04 AM
Hi mpinco
Seriously? Trump. The dude with the hair. You are aware that this is tested, regularly, by polling so called 'head to head'. And Hillary has held the RCP polling average lead vs Trump from when they started testing this possibility. I can accept that perhaps Trump can change the game and bring some new voters in and perhaps grow as a candidate. But you are living in denial if you think that Hillary's negatives overcome TRUMP'S HUGE negatives. She has led EVERY aveerage RCP has published about their matchup. EVERY ONE. If you wanted to argue on behalf of Dr Carson, I would have to admit, that the polling suggests she would lose to him, but not to Trump. You are being delusional. The facts are utterly against your hope and desire.
On the pundit view, haha, big deal. What have I been telling you here? I was the first to say he might win the nomination, I was the first to map out that even in a 3-way race of Trump as Independent, there is a mathematical curiosity that could even get Trump to win the actual election (except that Hillary would never be that dumb to fall for that maneuver) and I've told you guys here, that Trump is becoming viable to win. And that currently he has genuinely the second easiest path to the nomination - but that in every case, I have stressed, Trump on the ticket means the Republicans lose really severly. Not just lose the Presidency but lose the Senate and risk the House. That is how bad it will be with Trump. If there is an anti-Hillary vote, it is superceded by an anti-Trump vote - the evidence is VERY CLEAR because that EXPLICIT point has been tested for months now. He can't win against her. Its not possible. But I also explain here patiently that Trump's gender gap is massive. HUUUUUGE. His Hispanic problem is toxic. Only 15% of Hispanics would vote for him, that means he cannot win the general election! So say REPUBLICANS. So mpinco. Your hatered of Hillary is clear. That may be relevant against Dr Carson. Against Trump it has been testd not to matter enough. His negatives are far worse. So explain to me, where is his constituency? Who, apart from the wackos who think Obama is a Muslim or that Obama will annex Texas or who think Mexicans are strolling over the border and raping the women and killing the people on the border. Who else will vote for him? Who? You really think evangelicals who were disgusted by Trump talking about coming to church to eat that cookie and get his redemption. There is no constituency coalition large enough for him to win. That doesn't exist. Does't exist. But yes he can win the Republican nomination, because 30% can win it in this wide field if 10 candidates continue up to March 15.
PS - everybody, Mike Murphy (Bush's guy) has just run a discussion at Bloomberg about the delegate math, very very similar to what I wrote, but Murphy of course spins it as Jeb's big advantage. And yes, exactly same logic and dates and states. He says Jeb can hang around in 3rd and 4th place for hte early states, then use his money to go big on March 1, and by March 15, Jeb can lead the delegate count (and Murphy even talks about the Florida scenario, obviously he assumes Jeb beats Rubio in Florida). Haha, only days after I posted my blog. Except my blog covers all candidates. I am sure we'll be getting more who will all have essentially the same logic and math as I had. The math is the same.... but delegate math is hard, polling analysis is easy.
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | October 22, 2015 at 05:47 AM
Anyone else noticed that Tomi, as much as he's proficient at mobile, he's equally totally clueless in the political realm.
Hilary Clinton is an evil, cloven-hooved political whore.
I'm all in on having a female in the US white-house, but Hillary is filthy scum.
Is this the best we have to offer from the fairer sex?
Elizabeth Warren has more class in her little finger and can easily wipe her arse with the best parts of Hillary Clinton.
Posted by: Hillary is Scum | October 23, 2015 at 02:15 AM
Hi Hillary
Ok, clearly you don't like her, and most Republicans will agree with you and even a good deal of Democrats will agree with you. She is not a saint. She is very ambitious and driven and she most definitely has exhibited a 'moral flexibility' to things like say, the absolute truth haha... On Elizabeth Warren, I agree she has more class but she is yet too inexperienced to run a national campaign (especially against Hillary). She is ambitious too, she will have a very prominent role in Hillary's Cabinet (likely Treasury Secretary) and her time will come.
Now, if you go through history, the first woman to break through that glass ceiling tends to be very tough, and it asks for quite a lot of determination, to the degree that very many will say, the 'woman' is no longer 'feminine' or 'gentle'. Look at Margaret Thatcher (widely hated and feared before she became Prime Minister, and only slightly more appreciated by the time she left office, still today many Brits hate her memory) or say Golda Meir. That first woman to pierce that barrier also in business often requires a degree of ruthlessness - haha witness Carly Fiorina over at HP, hardly a nice woman, gosh, she's a total bitch-on-wheels level witch. She makes Hillary seem like Mother Teresa (and gosh, as a political observer, I'd really love to see that pairing, have those two go at it, in TV debates, if Fiorina was the Republican nominee, but that is now quite unlikely).
That all being said, 'Tomi clueless in political realm' - seriously? When I wrote my 2016 election preview in October of 2014 - two YEARS before the voting starts, it was the most comprehensive preview of the election by anyone up to that point. Many of the points I made then, nobody had yet said. I said that the Republican race would be a huge mess because of both the wide range of candidates and the corruptive role of Billionaire money. Nobody was saying that in 2014 looking towards the 2016 election. I said that the Democratic race was a cakewalk for Hillary. Until Joe Biden dropped out, most pundits felt that there was a race on the Democratic side. I could go on. So far I have not made one wrong call about the 2016 election except that - like everybody else at the time - I also thought Trump would only last a month on the top. He's now been 3 months but he is now starting to fade (by the new polls yesterday from Iowa and Wisconsin where Ben Carson has passed Trump). When I have come up with blogs about news of the 2016 race, the items have often been the first anywhere to discuss that fact (like just now, the Delegate Math) and they have been remarkably insightful - and so far either totally relevant and correct (like how the Fox debate rules brought out the madness from the Republican candidates) or else their impact can't yet be seen but have not been proven wrong (the role of the Pope's cyclical on the Environment).
So yeah, Hillary, actually, I am VERY proud of the contributions to the political race insights that I have written here. Each of those blogs stands as a real contribution, haha, except the jokes. I know my ability to be funny is only very modest, so the jokes are somewhat lame. But hey, its my blog.
But Hillary, I challenge you, please read the past political blogs and tell me here, where was I wrong, on something I predicted or analyzed, that we can now determine the truth? Where was I clueless. I don't mean, is it being 'clueless' to argue that Hillary is gonna win the Democratic nomination or that she's gonna win the general election too. That can't be determined yet. I mean some of the things I told you here, for example that there will be more Billionaires to pick personal candidates than ever before? Who else said that? Where did you read any political blogger discuss that angle (and list Billionaires from the 2012 election and their candidates). There are several who have NOW seen the story, after they filings by the SuperPAC committees and their funding, but who wrote about this in February, long before those filings? Nobody. Nobody talked about the Presidential Poker, the Billionaire Bingo that is now happening with at least 18 Billionaires already announced.
Yeah, Tomi 'clueless in political realm' - the claim sounds strong. Can you back it up with anything that I wrote?
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | October 23, 2015 at 04:10 AM
Hi all
The big Form Book is now posted. Every stat you could hope for related to the US election. All candidates scored and all the dirt is there too, like who are their personal Billionaires..
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | October 23, 2015 at 08:44 AM