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October 30, 2015

Comments

abdul muis


http://intelligence.slice.com/apples-biggest-spenders-have-seniority/

Catriona

@Tester, the point being that marketing to people who buy Google Android vs Open Source Android is very different. Someone with AOSP has no access to Google services, at least not except through the Google website. The app store strategy is different. You can make money replicating Google services. On Google Play, that's not possible. Plus the devices are different. Google insists that OEMs go all in or out on Google Play. A vendor can't produce some AOSP products and some Google Play products. I'm sure Samsung would be the first to try it if they could.

And when it comes to the direction of mobile, Google Play Android certainly benefits Google more than AOSP.

Catriona

Very interesting spending data, abdul muis. So apart from the $200K+ crowd, spending on Apple products is not driven by income levels.

chithanh

@Catriona
Again, the destinction where users get their apps from is important for which group exactly?

Also there is no problem in shipping with more app stores in addition to Google Play (Huawei does this, and Lenovo did this formerly).

Winter

@Catriona
"And when it comes to the direction of mobile, Google Play Android certainly benefits Google more than AOSP."

And why should we be interested in these statistics, unless we own shares?

China is AOSP for purely national politics. If the politics change, China will install standard Android. Until then, it stays AOSP. This is currently totally outside market dynamics and does not influence the sale of Android phones.

Catriona

@Winter, if you are a developer it makes a difference. AOSP doesn't have an official sanctioned marketplace. If you are monitoring Google's influence in the mobile space, it makes a difference. Predicting when or if political change will occur in China is a fool's game. In any case, a lot of China-specific sites (Weibo, Baidu, etc.) are getting pretty entrenched and there's no guarantee that if China opens up to Google that suddenly all those users would switch to Google services.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi all

A few quick comments

Winter, thanks. 354.7M is the correct number, thanks for spotting the typo, have corrected it.

abdul - thanks for the typo in the table rankings, corrected that too.

All - on the Nike vs shoes argument, Paul had the right interpretation. Its either Nike vs only sports shoes makers, or out the math doesn't work vs all shoes. That would be Apple's share of all phones in use, and on that metric the formula is roughly 1:4:7 so only one in 12 phones in use globally is an iPhone when dumbphones are included. And obviously when all phones in use are smartphones, a few years after all new sales are smartphones, so around 2022 say, it should be near 1:9 being iPhones.

Great discussion, pls keep it going

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean


Ah, the Joy of Smartphones...

In what may be the most interesting test of 'Product Placement' in the smartphone sector, Sony is running an ad campaign for the Experia Z5, touting it's use by Bond, James Bond.

Guess our major Bond aficionado, some Finnish guy whose name I can't remember needs to buy one. Along with all the major James Bond fans. After all, you can't buy his car. Aston Martin made the DB10 for James Bond only!

Besides, an Experia Z5 is a lot more affordable than an Aston Martin :)

chithanh

@Catriona
Why should it matter for developers? It matters maybe a little if they want to sell their app, but as we have learned selling apps is an unsustainable business model for most.

Apps that companies use for customer retention are simply submitted to the app store(s) that reach most of them. In China that would be Baidu, in Russia Yandex+Google and everywhere else just Google Play.

EduardoM

Ben Thompson on the iPhone

https://stratechery.com/2015/stop-doubting-the-iphone-the-macintosh-company-2/

Tester

@chithanh:

"Apps that companies use for customer retention are simply submitted to the app store(s) that reach most of them. In China that would be Baidu, in Russia Yandex+Google and everywhere else just Google Play."

And let's not forget that you always can offer a direct download for those who cannot access the app stores you support so they can sideload it on their device. It wouldn't surprise me if Chinese actually use this feature instead of crying for help if their favorite app store does not carry a specific app.

So unlike iOS where app makers are at Apple's mercy, on Android there's just no way anyone can prevent you from distributing your app.

@EduardoM:

Yawn - yet another guy who has no clue about business dynamics and doesn't understand how markets work. No need to go into details here but it's just the usual regurgitation of the eternal Apple theme of 'Apple will continue to do great because they are doing great right now' but completely ignores the fact that the surrounding market has probably just entered its biggest change phase, which means that in the coming years Apple's business model with the iPhone may come under scrutiny.

I think 'analysts' like that actually pose the biggest danger to Apple because they are blind to the potential dangers and lull some clueless investors into false expectations. And the bad things will happen if these clueless investors then panic.

For me, the problem with Apple right now is that the company appears to be run by bean counters. Which is evident by looking at their current product line that no longer tries to push innovation but instead tries to squeeze as much money out of the market with as little work as possible. Such a strategy can work for many years if the customers are too ignorant, but at some point this will inevitably crash and burn.

(BTW, where are those 'converted Android users', if the installed base as shrunk? Something does not make sense here...)

Tester

Oops, sorry, I misread something. Please disregard the last remark about installed base. I mistook percentage for actual numbers.

Regardless, with clueless iFans like this guy I always get the feeling they take Apple press releases at face value without actually verifying the facts.

Gonzo

@Tomi

All - on the Nike vs shoes argument, Paul had the right interpretation. Its either Nike vs only sports shoes makers, or out the math doesn't work vs all shoes. That would be Apple's share of all phones in use, and on that metric the formula is roughly 1:4:7 so only one in 12 phones in use globally is an iPhone when dumbphones are included. And obviously when all phones in use are smartphones, a few years after all new sales are smartphones, so around 2022 say, it should be near 1:9 being iPhones.


Bravo Tomi, now we are getting somewhere, because we have made a point since always and in your article you clearly state that iPhone is a niche ... if it applies to Nike then the right interpretation as many of us proposed is that Apple is only analyzed in its category and that is premium, around/above 650 $ price and niche.

So it should be rephrase as iPhone vs. all manufacturers selling smartphones above 500 - 600 USD

Issue settled, finally ! thank you Tomi.

Wayne Borean


Again, everyone is confusing Market Share with Installed Base. Market share doesn't matter if Installed Base is large enough to support a market for Apple specific products and services.

Let's take a certain forklift manufacturer, who shall remain nameless. I used to work for one of their dealerships a while back. That manufacturer had about 1% market share in Canada. According to Market Share enthusiasts we should have been toast. In Real Life, the dealership ran a decent profit. The manufacturer was consistently profitable, because the Installed Base for that brand (also about 1%) was large enough for spare parts, service, rentals, and sales to provide both the dealership and manufacturer a decent revenue stream.

No, that brand was no danger to Toyota Industrial Sales, just like the iPhone is no danger to Google Android. But profits were there.

Also I notice that consistently no one seems willimg to consider that Apple might produce the next great Mobile innovation. While Apple does seem to be resting on their laurels, none of us know what Apple has in the development pipeline.

I'll admit that I don't see anything that could be added to smartphones that would really make a difference. Smartphones are a mature technology. There's nothing you can add to them that will:

1) Improve phone calls
2) Improve SMS
3) Improve applications
4) Improve music playback
5) Improve photography

At least nothing I can think of (and please don't provide me lists - I know I'm probably missing ideas but before you start spouting about ANYTHING ask yourself one question - WOULD IT SELL MORE PHONES).

Disruption Theory says that the smartphone marketplace is ripe for Disruption. Unfortunately Disruption Theory doesn't tell us what the next Disruptive Technolgy will be, and until the wave of disruption arrives, as long as Apple's total installed base gets no smaller, the market for Apple specific products and services is sustainable.

And the market for Google Android specific products and services is also more than large enough to be sustainable, even though products to support specific manufacturer devices might not be.

The market for Windows Lumia specific products and service appears however to be moribund.

abdul muis

@Wayne Borean

Samsung Project Valey, which is previewed in CES 2014 video presentation by Samsung ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKG7XRsG9KQ&t=75 ) will be launched in 2016 will change the landscape of smartphone premiumness.

abdul muis

http://hexus.net/ce/news/mobile-phones/87635-samsung-project-valley-foldable-smartphone-arrive-january/
"
Samsung Project Valley foldable smartphone to arrive in January

The new smartphone is expected to be launched by Samsung as early as January. That puts it in line with the annual CES event, rather than a mobile-focussed show like the MWC. Remember Samsung advanced its summer launch schedule by several weeks to avoid the latest Galaxy Note clashing with the Apple iPhone. This might be a similar move to get plenty of coverage ahead of the multitude of smartphone releases around MWC time.

For such a daringly different product Samsung must be feeling pretty confident, as it has quite a large selection of geographical markets lined up for the Project Valley smartphone launch, according to SamMobile's sources. The following are Samsung's launch networks/markets:

BTU – United Kingdom
CPW – United Kingdom (Carphone Warehouse)
XEU – United Kingdom / Ireland
DBT – Germany
ITV – Italy
KOR - South Korea
NEE – Nordic countries
XEF – France
XEO – Poland
"

Winter

@Wayne
"Disruption Theory says that the smartphone marketplace is ripe for Disruption. Unfortunately Disruption Theory doesn't tell us what the next Disruptive Technolgy will be, and until the wave of disruption arrives, as long as Apple's total installed base gets no smaller, the market for Apple specific products and services is sustainable."

Two come to mind:
1) So cheap, every human will have several smartphones, say less than $10. That is, embedded smartphones

2) Your smartphone can connect with every screen and keyboard you might encounter to be your really personal computer

Winter

@Wayne
Another disruptor:Your Smartphine doubles as a passport. This would require robust biometrics and much more security (and privacy).

This would consolidate a lot of services into a single device. The easy part would be banking, paying, drivers licences, subscriptions, tickets etc. These are already rolled out. But border crossings and legal identification is another matter.

Tester

Yeah, right - and if that single device gets stolen, then what?

No, thank you, for such important things I prefer to stick to the classics. ;)

Winter

@Tester
You might think a little more about what woulbe needed for such use. Most of it is already in place.

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