My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media


Blog powered by Typepad

« 3rd Republican Debate Review: Christie emerges, Cruz rises, Kasich misses, Jeb fails | Main | The Carson Cult - I think I have finally figured out Dr Ben Carson - and get this: He could win the nomination too »

October 30, 2015



"Apple is not selling even half of the phones in the price range iPhone is currently selling. Maybe a third. "

And? You know how they will double that?


"By selling more. Of course doubling is not needed. You are starting to sound like a broken record."

That is because I get the same, uninformative responses from you time and again. I agree with the response of Wayne Brady above.

"Now the Mac has been outgrowing the PC market for 10 years straight, years before the iPhone was a factor."

When I look around, the reason is Windows. Windows has a negative value for most users. As these users cannot avoid getting Windows when they buy a non-Apple computer, they have to buy the Apple product. The extra ~$1000 is what people consider it worth to avoid Windows, i.e., the negative value of Windows.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

I see Lullz doesn't know how this "forecasting thingie" works.

First we look at what is probable in the future. Some things will be more probable than others. With this we can create a model.

Then we wait and see what the result was.

Finally, we compare the model with the actual numbers, and learn why the model was flawed and what you failed to account for.

Tomi has a damn good model. Not perfect by any means, but really good. Now his model failed to predict the iPhone market share growth, but his model also did not take into account of Samsung being morons with their flagship. :)


"Doubling the sales is not needed to have the installed base in the 15% - 20% range by 2020."

Strange. The industry expects 6 billion Smartphones in use in 2020. 20% of that is ~1 billion. And that is twice the current installed base. Hence, the number of iPhones must double reach that level.

You say there will be less smartphones in use by then? What do you know that the industry doesn't?


"Nope, you can't get away by blaming Windows."

I can. Over the years I have talked to a lot of Mac(book) users. Almost without exception these people pointed to Windows as the reason they "switched".

Linux was out of the question for reasons that boiled down to computer ignorance and compagny policies.

Per "wertigon" Ekström


15%-20% of all phones being non-android by 2020? So let's do the math:

Estimate: 5.5B handsets of the ones in use are smartphones by 2020, pretty reasonable and midground.

15-20% so lets say 17.5%.

This means 962.5M handsets are dumbphones or iPhones.

If the dumb->smart migration is over, all of these essentially will be iPhone. With a current installed base of about 500M users for Apple, that means they must double their installed base by 2020.

Sorry, they are good, but they are not that good. Not with a single phone. Noone is. Even Samsung only manages it with selling a lot of phones. :)

Per "wertigon" Ekström


The math doesn't work.

You are entitled to your opinion of course, but Apple cannot reach 1B people without a significant change in strategy. It's just not possible even in the best of worlds.

And since quite a few things point to the world soon having a huge recession...


Apple has announced that its active installed base of devices has reached 1 billion, based on the number of iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod touch, Apple TV and Apple Watch devices that have been engaged with the company's services within the past 90 days. Apple said the figure represents a 25% year-over-year increase in active devices.

Sounds like we may need to boost our estimation of the number of active iPhones upwards significantly considering the iPhone makes up by far the largest proportion of Apple's device sales.


Even more interesting is that figure of a 25% increase in Apple's installed base in the last 12 months alone. That means an increase of a quarter of a Billion active Apple devices in just one year.

Quite amazing particularly considering all of those devices were expensive premium devices sold by just one company. Also interesting to compare this with Google's 1.4 Billion active Android users.


Actually, I believe I miss-spoke. It looks like Sundar Pichar specifically said 1.4 Billion active DEVICES (not users) and only 1 Billion active Google Play users.


Samsung is number one and Apple is number two as market share world wide.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati