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« Tidbits and Noise from Smartphone Wars | Main | Democratic Debate Review - She is really prepared for the run »

October 09, 2015



If we compare these Q3 statistics with your reports of last year we see essentially no change at all. That in itself is a change of the pattern. We used to see a grow in Android market share and a decline in iPhone and WP market share year over year. No change is a change ;-)

I think this is again a consequence of the bumper release of last year's iPhone combined with stalling of the global smartphone market growth.

Tomi, how do you see global smartphone growth in 2015?


Rank . OS Platform . . . . Units . . . . Market share . Was Q2 2014 . . Manufacturers in Top 10
1 (1) . . Android . . . . . . . 268.0 M . . 83.6 % . . . . . ( 85.1 %) . . . . . Samsung, Huawei, Lenovo, LG, ZTE, TCL/Alcatel, Sony, Yulong/Coolpad, Xiaomi
2 (2) . . iOS . . . . . . . . . . . 39.3 M . . 12.3 % . . . . . ( 11.8 %) . . . . . Apple
3 (3) . . Windows Phone . 10.4 M . . . 3.2 % . . . . . ( 2.5 %) . . . . . . Samsung, ZTE
4 (4) . . Blackberry . . . . . . . 2.1 M . . . 0.7 % . . . . . ( 0.5 %) . . . . . . (None)
others . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 M . . . 0.2 % . . . . . ( 0.1 %)
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 320.4 M


Rank . OS Platform . . . . Units . . . . Market share . Was Q2 2013 . . Manufacturers in Top 10
1 (1) . . Android . . . . . . . 204.3 M . . 80.3 % . . . . . ( 79.0 %) . . . . . Samsung, LG Huawei, ZTE, Lenovo, Sony, Yulong/Coolpad, HTC
2 (2) . . iOS . . . . . . . . . . 33.8 M . . 13.3 % . . . . . ( 13.4 %) . . . . . Apple
3 (3) . . Windows Phone . . 9.3 M . . . 3.6 % . . . . . ( 3.9 %) . . . . . . Samsung, Nokia
4 (4) . . Blackberry . . . . . . 5.9 M . . . 2.3 % . . . . . ( 2.9 %) . . . . . . (None)
others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 M . . . 0.4 % . . . . . ( 0.6 %)
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . 253.4 M


Makes sense for MS to pursue old Nokia technologies now that they paid 5B$ for them.



How many phones do you expect Apple to sell in the last quarter of 2015?

abdul muis


That's NOT a joke.
Microsoft bought Nokia, and SUCCESSFULLY integrate/recreate the symbian 2011 feature in the Windows 10. Without buying Nokia, who knows what Windows 10 capable of....

Wayne Borean

IPhne vs Android.

Wayne Borean

And the Cult of Apple...


Apple's Q4-15 (roughly calendar Q3) will be distorted since only 2 days of iPhone 6S/6S Plus sales will be included vs. 9 days of iPhone 6/6Plus last year. The real numbers to watch will be Apple's upper and lower ranges for estimated revenue for the current quarter. Right now most analysts seem to be predicting flat sales vs. last year. We'll get better estimates after October 27th.


So everyone is happy !

Apple has less marketshare while selling more iphones YoY


@Wayne Brady, true, particularly if Samsung's earnings surprise was mostly from its chips business (selling chips to Apple, and "selling" to themselves vs. buying from Qualcomm last year for the Galaxy line).


Big question will be if iphone 6s Q4 2015 sales will be down in absolute numbers compared to iphone 6 Q4 sales in 2014. Apple posted 13 million total for inital launch, but it's still unknow if that represents modest increase or decrease over iphone 6 launch due to inclusiong of China. Meanwhile adaption (sell through) rate for iphone 6s is way below that for iphone 6. So where are all these extra iphone 6s still sitting in Bestbuy warehouses? (counted as SOLD by apple of course)

Earendil Star

The article on the cult of Apple was interesting even if a bit overstreched. Yet, I see my thesis that Apple is the master in marketing and that most others are bad at it totally vindicated.

On the concept of inclusion, I disagree, in the sense that the iPhone cannot be viewed as a phone for all, otherwise the ability of Apple to sell it as a premium product would fail (i.e. you need to feel "special" by owning an iPhone vs its surrogates). Rather, the adherents of the sect (which I see more like an exclusive club than a religion) feel -at least to a certain level- equally treated among themselves. For example, all tend to get iOS upgrades at the same time.

If we look at Samsung instead, it tends to forget about those whom its sold its devices to very very quickly. Samsung upgrades are very slow, if they happen at all, especially for cheaper models. This make its customers feel neglected, which means they will look for alternatives when changing their phones. Bad mistake, although it could be argued it also derives from the complexity of Samsung's offering (so upgrades require a huge effort), vs the simplicity of Apple's.

Which leads me to discuss the topic of OS upgrades.

First, it is fundamental to notice that an OS upgrade is not necessarily something that will benefit the customer. Take the iPad 2 for example. Probably the best iOS for it is iOS 6, since all subsequent releases added practically no significant increase in functionality, while degrading the speed and responsiveness of the device to unbearable levels. Yet, this has a number of major advantages for Apple:
- reduces the work on OSs. Only one version continues to be actively supported, reducing cost and allowing OS developers to concentrate on the latest version and improve it while minimizing bugs
- makes customers feel cared for, as they also get the latest and greatest, and too bad the device is slower
- will induce customers to upgrade to new devices, i.e. those that are able to handle the new OS in an acceptable way, which means more sales for Apple.

Look at Sammy's attitude instead.
- work still needs to be done on a plethora of models and versions, plus on the useless Touchwiz skin.
- customers feel betrayed or left out, because they do not receive the latest and greatest, and what is worse, often after semi-official leakages had originally confirmed the updates were coming (which is possibly done to ensure continued sales on devices that are less up-to-date)
- customers will keep their relatively speedier phones longer, which means less sales, and will probably look around for alternatives the next time around anyway, having felt betrayed for not receiving the promised update.

Clearly Apple's way is much more sensible, and it is a further reason why Apple is so much stronger than its competitors.

And the funny thing is, that the likes of Sammy seem to be oblivious of this, and focused on the looks of their new devices rather than on the substance behind them. Useful features (e.g. SD slots) were traded for a more metallic look. Terrible mistake. Especially in an environment that is not a one-man show like for the Apple-iPhone. It is in a situation where Android smartphones have become commoditized, and for the customer a change of device maker is terribly easy...

No, Samsung is not countering its current challenges is a way that looks destined to success. While the rise of the new Chinese brands looks poised to continue.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Earendil Star:

I hear you about upgrades, but... that's Samsung. Look at Sony for instance - they will push Marshmallow (Android 6.0) to all their Xperia Z* devices including the original Xperia Z model. So they obviously follow Apples lead in that case. Except they do it with Android. :)

As for non-flagship products, few ever expect the latest and greatest for those.



"my Nokia E7 achieved that Continuum functionality perfectly in 2011, keyboard, monitor, USB storage, etc. Yes, to see what comes next in 'wonderful' Windows Phone or Lumia, just pull out an old Symbian based Nokia smarpthone)"

I believe Motorola also had a phone that did that "desktop conversion thing" too and flopped. It seems microsoft likes to borrow old ideas that were failures. So much for microsoft innovation ... LoL! A very stupid and abusive company.

To all the astroturfers, remember every holiday to tell your friends NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE!


More news that windows 10 will be another BIG nail in the window phone coffin ...especially when you consider all the HUGE privacy spyware and security issues that all the online reviews found in windows 10. Windows phone is just toast :-)

More of the LATEST news documenting the widows phone journey to ultimate failure.

Hear Yea! all the astroturfers, yell out your windows (pun intended) to all your friends and neighbours: NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE!

John A

About Windows Mobile 10. I guess Nadella have giving up the goals that Ballmer had to go to around 15 % marketshare. But will Microsoft kill it of totaly? I think they will remain in the mobile space even if its only about 2 %. I guess not many will buy the Continiium stuff. But Windows 10 Mobile can be used for small tablets etc... to. And it seems like Google and Microsoft have settled the patent disputes also. So maybe we will see some Android apps in the Windows 10 platform eventually.

In any case I think Microsoft will remain in mobile in a form for the future. Who know maybe we even see a Microsoft mobile with Android:

"A Microsoft-based Android phone may not be for everyone, but it seems more than likely we'll see one soon."

Bingdows Cocktana

Not even the decomposed carcass of Nokia can help Microsoft's mobile ambitions now.

Also, for the few weirdos that genuinely crave for the 'Microsoft ecosystem', most of the Microsoft apps and services have been ported to Android and iOS. There goes the unique selling point of Windows phones.

Most of us are doing very nicely in our daily routine without any Microsoft stuff. Not even Minecraft or cheesy video game references (Cortana/Halo) can lure people back to the Microsoft flytrap now.

SatNad just wants to turn Microsoft into a data mining corporation, the intrusiveness of which would make even Google blush. Windows 10 was a sneak preview of things to come. "Cloud first, mobile first". LOL.

Microsoft still doesn't understand that itself is a tainted, toxic brand. Most people, once they see the Microsoft logo on the phone, would roll their eyes and move along. At least back when Nokia was making Windows phones, the Nokia brand was well regarded and had market presence when it comes to mobile phones.

The Microsoft brand generally doesn't invoke warm and fuzzy feelings, unlike Apple or Samsung or Sony, or McDonald's or Coca Cola.

@John A
"So maybe we will see some Android apps in the Windows 10 platform eventually."

Nice try, but wishful thinking. I present to you the following two articles:

Microsoft just Palmed itself out of the mobile market

More details about Microsoft’s self-Palming


An FYI to anyone dumb enough to use windows 10. Putting some "opaque" tape over the camera lens might help. But the keystroke logger is still active. There is NO PRIVACY in an unsecured windows 10!

All you microsoft astroturfers make a sour face and yell: NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE LoL!


@Bingdows Cocktana

Microsoft needs to make people to use the apps they make and that's why giving away lots of free licenses for iOS and Android phones makes sense. This is how Microsoft can secure the viability of Office and the rest of the apps. In the future they can try again on the mobile phones. One way to do that would be releasing a Windows phone with Android compatibility layer. For that to succeed Microsoft would need Google Play to lose viability. This is already happening with lots of forked Android phones using alternative app stores. If Google Play didn't have that big role in the future Microsoft could use Microsoft App Store and simply offer one more Android flavor with one unique feature. Windows compatibility. That might do the trick for Microsoft but it's crucial that Google Play is not that big in the future.

What it comes to hating Microsoft, I don't think it's as common as you say. I'm not that interested about most of the products Microsoft sells. That however is not a reason for me to hate Microsoft.

Most likely Microsoft will be out of the game for years.

Henrik N

I think the image of Microsoft itself is about to change. The new Surface Book did good reception for example, not only by Windows fans so to speak. I have no idea if the new Microsoft Lumias will sell or not. I guess they was long planned in the pipeline since a long time ago by the Elop team, and Panay just take it over.
I suppose maybe in some months we will see a Surface mobile (in metal) or something similar. They already got around 110 million Windows 10 users after all.
They also have a cooperation with Cyanogen, so I think they will have a long term strategy in mobile with Windows 10 or with some Android partners.

I guess we will see the strategy clearer in some months. But to get out of the game totaly and come back after some years would be very difficult.
Even if they are not big in the consumer space in mobile some business use them.


@ Bingdows Cocktana - "for the few weirdos that genuinely crave for the 'Microsoft ecosystem"

....we DO HAVE weirdos on this blog, baron95 is a pathetic example, but we have been calling them astrotrurfers. Maybe "weirdo astroturfers" would be a better description for baron95 with his multiple user id's. The weirdo astroturfers" are not very bright and easily identified.

All you microsoft astroturfers at midnight yell to your neighbors: NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE LoL!

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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