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October 16, 2015

Comments

Lullz

@abdul muis

1. Then tell what you think is the portion Apple has on the price range iPhone sells?

2. People who buy it can effectively afford it while they could use the money on something else.

3. The 2nd hand sales are the reason why Apple has a 20% market share.


@Tester

Right now is right now and may not be the same as what is the best in the future.

chithanh

With Apple's current strategy, the market share cannot grow any further. If Apple introduces substantially lower priced phones (as opposed to selling last year's model cheaper), this has the potential to cannibalize their high end sales. As Tester said, Apple will not sacrifice profits for market share, so don't expect this any time soon.
What happens next, Tomi predicts that iPhone market share will eventually drop below 10% followed by severe finger pointing.

Then we might see a new sound Apple strategy, or maybe management in panic and spending all money on cars etc. Selling cars btw. can lead to big profits, or it can become a costly disaster as VW has recently learned.

Lullz

@chithanh

So you are saying that Apple can't start selling cheaper phones because they eventually need to sell cheaper phones. Sounds like hopeful thinking. I'm not saying Apple will sell cheaper phones but they might do that.

abdul muis

@Lullz

It has been discussed here in the past, and the number of Apple iPhone latest generation might only captured about 15%-25% of premium market.

*You need to remember that apple did not break down it sales number (they also sell last year, last-last year, last-last-last year model), but this is in-line from various source that samsung/huawei/htc/sony/etc only sold 10%-20% of their device in premium sector. using this number, we got that apple is not 40% in premium market segment.

abdul muis

@Lullz

"So you are saying that Apple can't start selling cheaper phones because they eventually need to sell cheaper phones. Sounds like hopeful thinking. I'm not saying Apple will sell cheaper phones but they might do that."

They already lost the momentum of coolness. The androidOS already mature enough, and overleap iOS in many degree.

Lullz

@abdul muis

"It has been discussed here in the past, and the number of Apple iPhone latest generation might only captured about 15%-25% of premium market."

In that case Apple could grow the sales 4-6 times as big they were now assuming they would sell 100% of the premium segment. This is of course not going to happen but that's the theoretical limit according to you.

"They already lost the momentum of coolness. The androidOS already mature enough, and overleap iOS in many degree."

It's probably not about that.

abdul muis

@Lullz

"In that case Apple could grow the sales 4-6 times as big they were now assuming they would sell 100% of the premium segment. This is of course not going to happen but that's the theoretical limit according to you."

If you really think like a iFanboy, I really have nothing more to say...

Lullz

@abdul muis

"If you really think like a iFanboy, I really have nothing more to say..."

You obviously think like a fandroid if you are saying that as a response to my perfectly valid math.

If you say Apple is currently selling 25% of the phones sold in the segment iPhone is being sold, this means that 75% of those people could afford iPhone but are not buying one.

Some people are saying Apple is already selling to (almost) everyone who could afford iPhone. This is not true since those 75% can afford one but are not buying iPhone.

Do you understand what a theoretical limit is and what it means?

abdul muis

@Lullz


"You obviously think like a fandroid if you are saying that as a response to my perfectly valid math.

If you say Apple is currently selling 25% of the phones sold in the segment iPhone is being sold, this means that 75% of those people could afford iPhone but are not buying one.

Some people are saying Apple is already selling to (almost) everyone who could afford iPhone. This is not true since those 75% can afford one but are not buying iPhone.

Do you understand what a theoretical limit is and what it means? "

From previous post:
"In that case Apple could grow the sales 4-6 times as big"

You were assuming that everyone that could afford iPhone WILL/MUST/EVENTUALLY buy one. That's why I don't really have anything more to add....
Not everyone want to wear the same product/brand as anyone else, and that's the reason why I told you, the math you were using is wrong. You were justifying that Apple the best, and those who can afford one, will move to it.

"You obviously think like a fandroid if you are saying that as a response to my perfectly valid math."

LOL. again... I seen your post here, you really have too much time to write, and I really have nothing to add.

Lullz

@abdul muis

"You were assuming that everyone that could afford iPhone WILL/MUST/EVENTUALLY buy one"

No, this is a lie from you. I did not say that.

I also said this right after the quote you copied to your post: "This is of course not going to happen but that's the theoretical limit according to you."

Why are you trying to make me say something I didn't say? Your claim is of course a lie and something a fandroid tries to do.

abdul muis

@Lullz

Sorry if I offend you, English is not my primary language.

When I see the word:
"In that case Apple could grow the sales 4-6 times as big they were now assuming they would sell 100% of the premium segment. This is of course not going to happen but that's the theoretical limit according to you."

I think you were saying that I can't understand how good apple/iOS were, and if what I said is true, then, apple would sell 4-6x, and getting 40%-60% of premium market share... and you can't understand this, because you were 'stupid/fandroid'.

If you didn't mean that I'm sorry.

abdul muis

Correction....

I think you were saying that I can't understand how good apple/iOS were, and if what I said is true, then, apple would sell 4-6x, and getting 40%-60% of premium market share... and I can't understand this, because I were 'stupid/fandroid'.

Lullz

@abdul muis

No problem. No harm done. Thanks for explaining this.

I didn't mean that.

I was simply trying to say that there are lots of people who could *in theory* by iOS device but are probably not going to do that. Apple selling 25% of the phones sold in that price segment is just that. 75% of those people are not buying iOS device and it's very possible this won't change in the future.

Apple sold 192 million phones in 2014. If 25% is the correct number, it would mean that the size of the market is about 768 million/year.

If and when Apple hits the limit of the iPhone sales, it's most likely not because everyone able to afford one is buying one. They simply decide to choose another OS instead of iOS. Apple is of course trying to make people to choose iOS and if they manage to sell 35% instead of 25% that would be about 269 million. Then again if Apple sells only 15% instead of 25% that would be 115 million.

It looks like the number of people able to afford iPhone is not that big problem to Apple but people choosing another OS instead is. Of course assuming Apple is selling only 15%-25% of the phones sold in the price range of iPhone.

abdul muis

@Lullz

and thanks for explaining that.

chithanh

@Lullz
> So you are saying that Apple can't start selling cheaper phones because they eventually need to sell cheaper phones. Sounds like hopeful thinking. I'm not saying Apple will sell cheaper phones but they might do that.

Apple doesn't need to sell cheaper phones. Just they'll lose market share until they do. But selling cheaper phones is not compatible with their current profit maximization strategy. Maybe when they approach 10% market share the management will come under pressure to change this strategy. (Or maybe they will panic and start frivolously spending money and developer talent on cars like Blackberry did on tablets. However that is less likely.)

Lullz

@chithanh

You are saying how Apple needs to stay above 10% in the end of the day and they need cheaper phones for that. At the same time you are saying how Apple can't start selling cheaper phones before they actually fell below the 10% limit.

If Apple really needs to stay above 10% limit and the cheaper phones are what is needed for that, I'm fairly sure Apple will react to that sooner than later. You have a different opinion but I'm guessing it's because you wish Apple will fall below 10% limit. At the same time you probably hope Apple will not release a cheaper phone.

chithanh

@Lullz
Let me explain to you again in clear words.

I don't say anywhere they need to stay above 10%. Tomi says there is going to be severe finger pointing inside Apple when they drop below that number. But on the outside this fact alone will not make much of a difference.

And I said that as Tester has asserted, Apple is currently running a profit maximization strategy which I think precludes them from releasing cheaper phones. It's not that Apple can't release them, but it requires a shift in strategy. And I said that approaching 10% will maybe provide motivation for such a shift in strategy.

The comments to this entry are closed.

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