Debate Judging Criteria for 3rd Republican Debate Tonight on CNBC - Each candidate has a different mission

So today is the 3rd Republican debate, on CNBC. I wanted to get this blog posting out before the debate, so that when I will do the debate evaluations, we can use this as the way to judge, but so that I did not create the rules after seeing the debate... Each of the ten debaters on the 'adults table' part have a different or at least differing mission to try to achieve. It might seem 'unfair' if I applied clearly a different standard on how to measure say Fiorina, compared to how I evaluate Kasich. But they do have different needs out of this debate today, and I want to set out the criteria first.

So lets first note that the whole Republican field expectation level changed last week. The Republican electorate had been cocooned into a false sense of security by Fox and their extremist media friends, that Hillary Clinton was a flawed candidate who was ripe to collapse out of the Benghazi inquisition. So huge amounts of Republican voters tuned in to the all-channel TV coverage of the Benghazi hearings, expecting to see the hated Hillary destroyed by seven experienced prosecutors who had used literally four million dollars and months and months of preparation to get ready to skewer her on live TV. Various right wing media had promised them that Hillary was so weak, Joe Biden would be a more formidable foe. And that her vulnerability was enormous from anything starting with 'emailgate'. And it all was about to play on TV. And then reality hit. Reality hit Republican voters, hard. Hillary easily brushed off 11 hours of gruelling grilling by professional prosecutors, on utterly silly witch hunts about whether some family friend of over 20 years sent her a lot of emails.

The Republican voters woke up to the shock that Hlllary Clinton is a powerful, commanding debater and professional at handling hard questions and the Benghazi inquisition was not going to scar her one bit. And the email server was not going to cause any stir at all. But that the Republican field, which is now set to have their third debate, they are not ready for Hillary! What the Republicans now suddenly need is a dragon-slayer. The one thing they more hate than the idea of a third term of Barack Obama, or the return of Nancy Pelosi, or even a third term of Bill Clinton, is that Hillary Clinton would become President. It is the very sum of all Republican evils. She is the devil incarnate to the base of Republican voters. The most horrible scenario imaginable, after 8 years of hated Obama. It now hit the electorate last week, that gosh, Hillary is for real, and gosh, she is strong on TV, and unflappable. And some wimp like Jeb Bush or undisciplined like Rand Paul or soft spoken like Dr Ben Carson would be eaten alive by that vulture. The Republicans are now awakening to the urgent need that they need a fighter. A fighter! Not someone kind and modest and gentle like a John Kasich, no, they want a fighter. Street bully like Chris Christie or alley cat like Carly Fiorina. 

This same theme is echoed in conservative media, first in hush tones and occasional warnings, but many conservative writers have already called Hillary's performances in the first Democratic debate and the Benghazi hearing in terms like commanding, powerful and formidable even. Conservatives. So this is the growing need that will become a stark contrast today in the CNBC debate as the first time we see the 10 Republican rivals after the 11 hour masterclass by Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Then a quick word about 'different judging criteria'. Why is that? This is a broad and competent political field, the Republicans have. They have differing natural abilities and skills and also differing past experiences to hone some skills over others. But now, they have to try to evolve into that Hillary-destroying dragon-slayer that the party seeks. So take the two I mentioned at the top of the article, Fiorina and Kasich. Both stand at about 4%-5% polling support and you could say, both have to grow their support. Fine, thats true, but how. These are a study in extreme contrast.

Carly Fiorina is the best attack debater in this field. She instinctively senses the vulnerabilities of her targets and then attacks them relentlessly. Her years as troubled Hewlett-Packard CEO have taught her well to handle tough questions and stick to her talking points. There is no question, Fiorina does not need to convince the voters that she can step into that general election debate on national TV in front of 100 million voters, and match up well to Hillary. But Carly, Carly Carly Carly. She had her meltdown moment last debate. What possessed her to open up to her convoluted demons and profess those imagined scenes of brain harvesting? She did such a good job bullshitting about the imagined evils, that her polling shot up to 15% immediately after the second debate and briefly she was in second place behind Trump. Then the reality sunk in, that this was not reality. There is no such video she described. It was her imagination. That one unforced error, self-induced wound, has hurt her already so badly, she is down to 5% in the polling. She is on the brink of being locked up in that closet with other wackos who say stupid things like Michelle Bachmann 'I know women whose children got autism from vaccinations' and Sarah Palin 'I read all the newspapers' and Christine O'Donnell 'I am not a witch'. So we know Fiorina can debate, what we need to know, is that she actually recognizes the line between reality and her vivid if not alarming imagination. She needs to stay on the side of sanity in this debate, not do another journey to the twilight zone.

Now, consider Ohio Governor John Kasich. He is a nice man, he is a supremely competent man and he is totally a no-nonsense factual dude. All serious, no messing around. A total technocrat. About as exciting as an accountant. He could not find those brain harvesting scenes even if he was locked inside a video rental store that only specialized in horror movies. We have no danger whatsoever that Kasich will go off the rails. He's as sound as they come. But can he debate? Can he be an attack dog? He refused to attack any of his rivals in the first two debates and never rose to the chance to be critical of any of his rivals. He just pivoted back to his record, trying to stay above the fray and keep his campagn honorable. Thats very nice John Kasich, but the opposition has an uncaged tiger called Hillary, and being nice to her won't win you the race. Just look at what she did to Bernie Sanders in their debate. He was nice to her, and said lets not talk about the emails. What did the evil witch of Brooklyn do? She attacked him about his positions on guns. Good guys finish last. What Kasich needs to show, is that he can fight. That he can debate. That he can throw punches. Nobody doubts one iota that Kasich will remain sane. They doubt if he knows what 'to debate' even means.

The two candidates, Fiorina and Kasich have literally the opposite problem and in both cases, the problem is so big they cannot get the nomination if they cannot overcome it. But that same problem for one, is a strength for the other. In some ways the ideal Republican candidate had the sanity of Kasich combined with the tenacity of Fiorina. See what I mean? Each candidate has different things to prove today in the debate, and they can even be diametrically opposite needs like with this pair. So lets go, I will do the Republican candidates by their order of polling ie their standing at the two Republican debates, starting wtih Trump at center of the adult table debate:

DONALD TRUMP - GET REAL

Donald Trump is certainly a natural gifted TV personality. He also has a natural instinct of attack attack attack and never apologize. He seems to have a good foundation to become that dragon slayer but he is only raw talent and he is short on any substance. When we compare him on stage to the actual top debaters (Fiorina, Christie, Huckabee and Rubio in that order) we see that Trump has very weak technique. He often attacks the other person's personality with often childish attacks - how they dress or their posture or how low energy they are etc. This may get under the skin of a weak opponent (Jeb Bush) but do you think such childish badgering could have unrattled Hillary in that 11 hour marathon. She was laughing off FAR MORE compelling arguments. Trump's early debate performance was juvenile in its attacks mostly, with occasionally tidbits of meat and real issues. He needs SERIOUS coaching and TONS of preparation and practise. Its unlikely Trump has the discipline to do that with professional support. But he is outclassed by Fiorina, Christie, Huckabee and Rubio. But Trump is clearly better than say Rand Paul or John Kasich and of course, better than Dr Ben Carson.

The political race is a 'zero sum game' meaning, for one candidate to win support, some other candidate has to lose it. There is no other way to win, no other way to grow. It has to come from someone else in that room. Trump knows this and illustrated a deep underestanding of this from the start, in the way he attacked Jeb Bush the supposed front-runner relentlessly and continuously but also then attacked others who were on the top such as Scott Walker, Rubio, Fiorina and just now, Dr Carson. But this cuts both ways. He was on the top and by the second debate, most of the field had figured it out, that they have to get their gains, by attacking Trump. As frontrunner, Trump had the most support to be stolen by rivals. This same dynamic will continue, except now Carson is rising so the other 8 are likely to attack both of them. Still, Trump will likely see a lot of attacks during the two hours of the debate. And he needs to hit back. 

Trump will then need to show growth and maturing into a more full-rounded candidate, and he will have to put more detail to his vague plans of how to rescue the nation and Make America Great Again. The stupid stuff he's been saying all summer are slowly being caught out, one by one, as crazy or unworkable, and more and more also exposed as simply untrue, such as now the Ford truck factory move from Mexico to Ohio. Kasich pointed out that the Ford deal was negotiated in 2011, four years before Trump insisted that he can force Ford to move back from Mexico. Trump is increasingly seen as an opportunistic liar, and needs to 'get real'. Or else he will find that his actual votes in February are close to his base support now, around 11% not twice or three times that, where his 'ceiling' is and where he could be winning early States.

DR BEN CARSON - HOPELESS

Sorry, now that we've seen Hillary, there can not be many who honestly believe Carson can survive a debate with her far less three. Do you remember Admiral Stockdale? And don't worry if it doesn't ring bells. Admiral James Stockdale was in a national TV debate in 1992, not for President but for VP. He was Billionaire Ross Perot's choice as VP and Stockdale actually asked the live TV audience 'why am I here'. He was the proverbial deer caught in the headlights of the car. He was utterly out of his league and he knew it and the whole TV audience cringed when he spoke. Nice guy by the way, and softspoken not unlike Dr Carson, but he was destined to lose disasterously (as they did, with Perot). Dr Carson just like Admiral Stockdale is not in any way prepared for, trained for, naturally gifted to, or enjoy performing on TV and will be horribly bad at it.

So why is Carson in first or second place? I really don't know. At least part of what voters say about him, is his mild, gentle way of speaking. So this is my theory. These are simple, gentle, religious and often basic people, who very highly respect authority, like an esteemed doctor. They then appreciate his warm, calming professional doctor bedside voice. This is EXACTLY how you want your doctor to talk to you. And they then fall in love with that TONE, without listening to the words. Dr Carson could be the most wicked reincranation of Dr Mengele and just speak calmly, offer the bottle of poison, and instruct the voter, open up the bottle of cyanide. Pour yourself a drink in this glass. Good. Now drink it all. Yes it stings, I know, it will hurt even more but just relax, you will soon die, your insides will rot, it will be painful, but I am your doctor here and I will kill you. And they would do it, almost as if in hypnosis...

So yes, there are some Carson supporters, not a large portion of them, who are now decided that he is their man. Most of Carson's support is 'soft' ie the voter hasn't made up their mind yet. And Carson has not yet been attacked by the rivals. That is now starting. The reality of Carson's positions make the other famous Republican lunatics (Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachmann, Christine O'Donnell and Scott Akin - you remember him, the 'legitimate rape' guy) seem like a quadret of Einsteins. When Republican voters are truly exposed to what Carson is saying, most will reject him as outside even what the modern Republican party can accept. But he is a Tea Party favorite, that should speak volumes. And as the Tea Party support nationally has fallen to 17% if you are a pure Tea Party favorite, you are unelectable in the general election.

I said the race is a zero-sum game. For the anyone among the other 9 to gain, they have to take from someone else, and as Carson rises to the top, he becomes the favorite target. What makes him even more appealing is that Trump's support is solidifying (half will not leave Trump anymore) but Carson's support is mostly soft, meaning you can rather easily steal some of his support if you are seen as appealing to that given voter group. Carson will be facing a lot of attacks on the debate today. What makes him even more desirable as the fat cat to skin, is that he won't fight back. Trump will hit you immediately but Carson seems to want to believe some kind of buddhist avoidance pacifism in his personal life - including pointing the attackers in that famous Popeye restaurant to not shoot him, but rather to attack the other guy.. Nasty guy this Dr Carson, but he does have a calming voice...So anyway, to pry voters away from Carson will be about the nearest thing to the old adage of 'taking candy from a baby'. Carson hates the whole political and debate process so much, he won't even put up a fight or protest. He is a pushover.

What should Carson do? Have a total body and mind transplant I guess could work. He needs to talk 300% faster, like a normal person, not like he is talking to a retard. He needs at least a rudimentary grasp of how the USA works like its Constitution and the different branches of government. He needs to study his opponents and attack them and defend himself when attacked. He can't keep doing those moronic Nazi comparisions and Holocaust comparisons. Obamacare is not the same as slavery. This is a BLACK man talking.. Its that VOICE. He can say, I will inject these scorpions into your eyesockets, and do it in such a warm and reassuring voice, that people would say, yeah, lets do it. Seriously. Carson's November will be over before November is done and he will never run in another election again.

MARCO RUBIO - HIT A HOME RUN

Marco showed us last time that he is one of the best debaters. He has a good command of the issues and he can throw punches and take them without being riled. He is about the best all-around candidate of this strong field. But he hasn't scored a knock-out punch (yet). He has shown promise but he needs at least a Fiorina moment where everybody agrees, he was the top debater in that round, but he is even better than that. He should have a Gingrich moment, that changes the race and propels him to first place.

The Jedi move by Marco would be if he hits Jeb so hard that Jeb quits the race. Really a knock-out punch, to make it so clear that Jeb isn't up to it, and Florida belongs to Rubio and that Jeb's supporters and staff - and his funding - together with the establishment support needs to abandon Jeb and join Rubio. That would be Machiavellian level dirty tricks that Dick Cheney would approve - but if Hillary was in Marco's shoes, she'd do it to Jeb Bush now. He is the biggest obstacle to Rubio's run - threatening that Florida primary with its 99 delegates awarded in a winner-take-all vote on 15 March. Rubio needs Jeb out now, when he is weakest. Not for Jeb to regroup and grow stronger with the help of mommy and daddy and W and their Bush clan and its deep pocket money support. It is do or die, sooner or later, Jeb or Rubio has to knock the rival out, before or up to Florida. For Marco Rubio, it is best done now, when the party is looking for a dragon-slayer. Yes, it feels bad when you stab someone who used to be your friend and mentor even, but this is politics. You need a killer instinct or you will not survive the final rounds with Hillary.

TED CRUZ - START FIGHTING

Ted Cruz was supposed to be a college champion debater. He's shown none of that in the first two debates. In fact, he's been nearly invisible in the first two debate. That may have worked as a strategy when Cruz was hoping Trump will collapse and Cruz might inherit his supporters, but now that isn't about to happen any day soon. And Cruz finds no place to grow. He has to start to attack. His most natural base is not Trump voters (Xenophobic racists lowly educated and men) its more close to Carson (Evangelical, Tea Party, gun loving and women). Last debate Jeb took off the gloves and started to throw punches at Trump. Just this week John Kasich finally said that he also has had enough, he will now start to fight. Ted Cruz may find himself on a stage with 8 fighters and two surrenderers. Two political pacifists. Two victims. He cannot be seen as the weakling. Cruz has to now start to attack. I think if there is real debating skill, it should become evident if Cruz stops stiffling himself. He could have some hidden talent there. But he has to start now or he'll find that others - particularly Mike Huckebee - will steal the 'low hanging fruit' easiest supporters to grab from Carson.

If Cruz has competent debate coaching, then the coach should be working feverishly to diminish Cruz's natural sneer and nasty expressions. He comes across as inherently hostile and almost impossible to like. Much like how Richard Nixon made everybody feel. But this can be overcome by coaching and learning to smile and various techniques in speech. Ted is that smart, and has such a strong campaign, that this must be one of his long-term projects and we may see that the Ted Cruz of April is actually quite a pleasant guy compared to the rough draft we see now.

JEB BUSH - DESIRE

Jeb Bush is now truly on the ropes. And it is not mostly Trump although he's been a good part of it. Most of Jeb's flailing campaign so far, has been unforced errors and self-induced damage. The latest and one of the worst, was just this weekend when Jeb said he would have many nicer things he could be doing, and if everybody is going to be critical of him, he could just go home. If you wanted a bully, just vote for Trump. Wow. A crybaby and a loser. And quitter! What is this, compared to the attack ads that will come from Hillary next year. What is this mild needling, comprared to what the Ayatollah will call a Jeb Bush the President of the Great Satan nation. Come on, Jeb! Seriously? You think that Trump calling you 'low energy' is going too far? Wake up man! Truly, Jeb is acting totally to form to Trump's carricature of him. And then of course it didn't help that he had his campaign finances in trouble; after two rounds of severe staff cuts; now was in Texas visiting 'mommy and daddy' as Trump called it, begging donors for more money. Jeb has turned out to be the wimpiest of the Wimps of US Politics. The Bush family were all wimps. It was what Daddy Bush was accused of. Then to over-compensate, W Bush adopted that gorilla-like moronic walking style with the elbows turned out, you remember, totally unnatural. And while W Bush - a cheerleader in college - pretended to be tough, he then got sucked to be the puppet by Dick Cheney the real power behind that throne. Now Jeb turns out to be the wimpiest of the Bushes. Wow, that is a low bar. 

So Jeb is on life-support now. He urgently needs, absolutely today, his best debate performance and he has to be one of those who shined today. He has to take on Trump and beat him. If Jeb cannot handle Trump now, he cannot be voted to go and face Hillary. If there is a fighter hiding inside Jeb Bush, it has to come out today. Else it is over. But here is the rub. This is clearly not instinctively Jeb. He is normally a nice soft-spoken, thoughtful guy. He is not a street brawler. If he now goes 'all in' to 'fight' he is likely to come off as utterly clumsy and out of his depth and have his attempts easily side-stepped by Trump and then counterpunched, likely harder yet. Jeb is at a very tall order now, and this is mostly of his own making. The voters want to see real passion, not just a brief show of it but lasting two hours. They want a fighter not a negotiator. They want hard hitting not mild corrections. They want tenacity. I don't think all that even exists inside Jeb Bush nor indeed his moron W brother or his meek dad either. But mark my words, its now an existential threat. Jeb Bush had pried more than 100 million dollars from the Bush family circle of megadonors including 5 Billionaires, and they were promised Jeb was the real thing. Now they had their weekend with the Bushes in Texas. They were promised again that Jeb could do it. They are far too smart and too rich to throw good money after bad. They all are watching Jeb's debate, as the test of will there be any more money. It is make or break time. Jeb is under the most pressure of the whole group.

CARLY FIORINA - SANITY

So Carly Fiorina will definitely shine again as a debater attacking Hillary repeatedly and attacking Trump and whoever else she finds a suitable target. But like I wrote in the above, her test is whether she again goes off onto Planet Neptune or if she can stay on our planet this time. The audience has seen her in the attack dog mode yes, but what she could now show also, is the ability to delight the audience, to make them laugh as well. That would be a step up into the super debater level. The style of how say Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton debated. Attack but through humor and a joke, getting the audience to laugh, to like you, and yet hit the other side hard. If she has competent coaching, they will see this as the next step, because Hillary obviously has this already in her arsenal. And if the moderators bring up her delusions about brain harvesting (or any of her rivals do) then she needs a brilliant, short, clear answer to the point that diffuses it once and for all. The issue has cost her 10 points of polling support. Only a delusional ex CEO would still try to spin this issue. The sensible response now is to quickly admit that she mis-spoke, that part of the video is Planned Parenthood but not the brain harvesting part. And then pivot immediately away from the whole issue to something else, to put distance between that sad episode and the rest of her political life. If she doubles down once again on brain harvesting, then its into the I Am Not A Witch closet and throw away the key. I do wonder if she understands how close the end of her political career now is, just because of this over-reach she did. Again, an unforced error. She had pushed the story, with her spin doctors, into the territory of blatant lie. And its all on videotape. The Democratic party would love for her to be on the ticket in 2016 so they could play brain harvesting delusions endlessly on TV.

RAND PAUL - DISCIPLINE

Rand Paul has shown brief moments of - I hesitate to even call it brilliance, lets say - sounding smart - but then he gets onto some wild tangent and loses the whole point. He is eager to attack but his attacks are poorly timed and conducted and don't really score for him. All sounds to me like he is shooting from the hip, and is not well rehearsed, not well planned and utterly not disciplined. Do you think Hillary came into the Benghazi hearings unprepared and just said what was on her mind? Every single question she got, she had already rehearsed a dozen times and she had perfected the long-winded but detailed answer to eat up the time in that hearing. Rand could have far more success if he tried. If he prepared. If he rehearsed. If he had discipline. But so far, nothing. Lets see how it goes today. I cannot imagine him changing a lot. And a little will not cut it. Nobody thinks of Rand Paul as being equal to Hillary's challenge if its one-on-one a year from now on live TV. Nobody. Not even his dad Ron Paul haha.

MIKE HUCKABEE - TURN IT ON

MIke Huckabee has shown time and again, in the first two debates, that occasionally, a few times per evening, he can have a huge laugh from the audience and a really strong answer to a question. He can also throw the punch. But he hasn't risen to his ability. It does seem either that he is past his prime (doesn't have it anymore) or what I have suspected, he is deliberately underperforming. He wants to remain unnoticed while he builds his Iowa field support and then he arrives with a bang in January or December and wins Iowa by surprise. Fine, I get it. Lets see a bit more of what you got, Mike. Because right now, the Republican voters don't want a dedicated evangelical former preacher, they want a fighter to beat Hillary. You've said repeatedly that you're the only one on the stage who has defeated 'the Clinton machine' back in Arkansas. Its now time to put up or shut up. Lets see what you've got. You can't get to winning Iowa anyway before you steal Carson's evangelical and severely conservative supporters. Why would you wait for that voter support to solidify. Grab it now while the support is soft. Take it from Carson and show the voters you are the one to take on Hillary.

Mike Huckabee is the nearest thing to Ronald Reagan's style of debating in the Republican field. Very conservative, always answered the question, but then pivot, get in you talking point, and make a joke! Get the audience to laugh and really like you. That was Reagan (and that was/is Bill Clinton's style too. It was not Hillary in 2008 but it is increasingly Hillary now). Huckabee ran last in 2008 against John McCain (and finished 2nd overall, and won in Iowa). If the 2008 Huckabee is still today as strong the he is the best debater of this field, and he is just hiding his real skill. But he may be past that prime, he is old. Huckabee actually does not have to show his full skills yet, but he should at least flash some of it, to ensure the voters that Huckabee can take on Hillary - and win. If you wanted a dragon-slayer, Huckabee could be it. And he could even skewer Trump or Carson (or both) in tonight's debate and emerge as the clear winner of the debate with a huge bump in his polling. 

JOHN KASICH - FIGHT

John Kasich has to take the gloves off and get really into the dirt to fight, and fight hard. He signalled that he would be throwing punches but the early press about it signalled still an old-fashioned gentlemen's club type of debating where he won't name names and refuses to fight hard. The electorate want a winner. They see Hillary is 'formidable'. You have to rise to THAT level of fight, John, not just take the gloves off. They want to see brass knuckles. Do you own brass knuckles? Have you hit anyone with them? Voter think you are too much Mr Nice Guy and then it won't matter how great Ohio's economy is, if you cannot match up to Hillary. She will fight dirty...

CHRIS CHRISTIE - HOME RUN

Chris Christie is on the fringe of the polling and the nearest to be eliminated from the adult's table for the next debate in two weeks at Fox Business TV. Its not so much that the voters would need to see that home run or slam dunk by Christie. Its that Chris Christie himself needs that now, just to remain alive. He needs to be at this adults table debate. If he drops to the kids table, then its all over. His strongest suit is the TV debates and if Christie cannot use this opportunity to take a big leap in polling, then he is not the real thing. Its now do or die, Chris. You have to score in this debate tonight. Like Huckabee and Fiorina, Christie can have a super hit night, but he cannot wait for it to arrive. It might not. He has to now create that moment. No doubt, he has prepared for this debate with exactly that in mind. But then, the support. Where will it come. It won't be coming from Carson. Some may come from Trump. But Christie should be hitting Jeb Bush now that he is vulnerable, to steal his support before Rubio runs away with it.

KIDS TABLE

That was the main debate. What of the kids' table? They really only need one thing. Try to have a Fiorina moment (not brain harvesting, I mean a successful debate that produces a big bounce in their support). Someone like a Pataki, Jindal or Santorum, I can't see it happening. Graham, just maybe could do it but no, he is not in the Top 10 class, so even a good debate won't really give him enough to jump past 2.5% support to get to the main debate. These candidates are zombies now, their campaign is over. They will soon need to quit.

Ok that is what we can expect from tonight. Note that in the first debate Trump was hot, but Jeb refused to fight. In the second debate Jeb was willing to fight but Trump tried to play nice. Now Kasich has also said he will fight, Jeb should be 'feisty' and Trump will be far more prepared than he was to the second debate. 

Meawhile all rivals saw how well Fiorina's attacks played in her immediate post-debate bounce that got her from 5% to 15%. So they all (except maybe Carson) know that they have to be willing to throw punches. And that Trump is vulnerable. So we will have Rubio, Christie, Paul and Huckabee also willing to fight. The only true political pacifist seems to be Carson (who will be pummelled from all sides) and I suspect Ted Cruz knows now, he too has to join and throw elbows or he will be labeled a wimp.

The game just got real. The weird delusion that the right wing media were running on, that Hillary was a weak candidate, has now been exposed as a myth. Formidable is a good term instead, and yes, a term used by conservative evaluations even. Consider that Benghazi hearing. Imagine if Trump was there, he'd be crying after 3 hours that it went on too long. Consider Jeb Bush, he'd be sobbing about how everybody was mean to him. But Hillary, took it all in stride, and was smiling in the end, even stayed to shake hands while the Republicans ran away with their tails between their legs. The silver lining on that horrid thundercloud of Benghazi inquisitions, was that now the truth is out. Hillary is not about to fold. She is very strong in a confrontational debate-like setting and plays VERY well on TV. Now at least the Republicans know what they are up against.

That is good. Because Hillary has reached pretty close to her peak of debating capability and has only 5 more soft Democratic debates to fine-tune. Most of the Republicans are far from their peak debating capability. They need the next 9 months to June and all 9 remaining debates to refine their skills. Some will improve a lot, others maybe not much. But now, the Republican voters know what they need, if they want to avoid Hillary in the White House. And that is what has to emerge from the debates now, starting tonight on CNBC. The Republican base want to see blood. They want to find a dragon-slayer to take down the hated Hillarymonster.

Comments

[Catriona]

Bush is out there trying to portray Marco Rubio as the "GOP Obama." It's a very odd strategy considering that Obama defeated Clinton. Actually, Hillary is still a pretty weak candidate, and there is plenty of material in those 11 hours of testimony to make some good campaign ads. Remember she "won" the first encounter in 2013 when she asked "what difference does it make?" but that still became good fundraising fodder.

Hillary Clinton has faced one real campaign in her lifetime, and lost. She is a weak campaigner. She is a strong candidate because she is about to raise $2.5 billion (more than Obama and Romney combined) in her quest to rid us of the evil effects of money in politics. To state it more correctly, Bill Clinton is going to raise $2.5 billion for her.

Oh, and Bernie finally decided to go negative ever since Hillary painted him as a sexist gun nut. He should have done that months ago. Maybe then the Democratic party would have actually had a democratic election.

[Winter]

@Catriona
"Actually, Hillary is still a pretty weak candidate, and there is plenty of material in those 11 hours of testimony to make some good campaign ads."

I think you are a good illustration of the self dellusions of the GOP described by Tomi elsewhere.

[deadonthefloor]

@Catriona

Maybe you should read this quote from Robert Reich, Bill Clinton's former secretary of labor for a time:

"I'm sick and tired of the media saying Bernie is "attacking" Hillary when all he's doing is pointing out differences between them -- and doing so in a civil and thoughtful way. He's not questioning her character or raising the issue of her emails when she was Secretary of State (in fact, he said in the last debate that those emails shouldn't even be at issue), or pointing to some nefarious act she might have done in her past, or anything else that merits the verb "attack." He is respectful and polite. Unlike Donald Trump and many of the other Republicans now engaged in mud-wrestling their primary opponents, Bernie is trying to help voters distinguish between himself and Hillary Clinton. I think that is the responsible thing for a candidate to do."

[GTR]

I also see Hillary as a weak candidate personally just with a strong external support. There's just nothing spectacular or special about her. It's not that she is stupid etc., which she of course is not, she just doesn't look to be at the level that the task of being a president requires.

To understand this you shouldn't yet compare her to potential republican candidates, but rather to the actual existing leaders of countries. Eg. Putin vs. Hillary: who'd outsmart whom? Who is better at planning? Executing plans? Compare the quality of their talk (at least Putin speaks like a serious adult). Who has charisma? Republicans should start running ads comparing Hillary to Putin. She'll loose it.

Then run a media campaign comparing her story to India's prime minister story: a person born in "other backwards class" community, who made it to the top anyway; in the mean time working underground against the temporary dictatorship ("state of emergency"). How does Clinton compare to this?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narendra_Modi

So the way to start an anti-Clinton campaign for Republicans is to look oudside and do media campaigns that compares Clinton to successful FOREIGN leaders. She's so unspectacular that there's no way for the latter not to win such comparison easily.

[Wayne Borean]

@Tomi

Nicely written. I might even watch the debate.

@Catriona

If Hillary is an egg (for strength), the Republican candidates look like whipped cream.

@deadonthefloor

Like that casino in Vegas which has a sign saying, 'Our Girls are Really Dirty - Mud Wrestling!'

@GTR

Putin needs to be very worried. Hillary is no pushover.

@everyone

Make sure you have plenty of popcorn...

[Catriona]

@Wayne, Hillary is an empty suit on foreign policy matters. Putin would eat her for lunch. Remember, she was Secretary of State while ISIS was building up in Syria, and the Libya "leading from behind" was her idea.

@Tomi, I doubt any of the serious GOP candidates underestimated Hillary Clinton because they know that Bill is bankrolling this campaign. Hillary is weak but her organization is strong. The media played up the Benghazi probe because it made for good TV. In reality, Hillary demanded a coronation and the Democrats gave in to her. They are the real pushovers.

[Catriona]

@Winter, I'm not even a Republican. People died. Hillary Lied. Plain and simple. She was divulging classified information to her daughter (an al-Qaeda like group killed 2 Americans) while telling the American public that it was a video. There are multiple transgressions that occurred. Except the normal rules don't apply to the Clintons.

[Correctionsforyou]

Republicans = Android confusion
Democrats = Apple
KesKusta = Nokia

[Correctionsforyou]

" Hillary is an empty suit on foreign policy matters. Putin would eat her for lunch. Remember, she was Secretary of State while ISIS was building up in Syria, and the Libya "leading from behind" was her idea."

Nope. Georg W got the idea first from his father and it goes like this.... Fuck everybody and let's make billions.

[mpinco]

From the various pundits....

Biggest loser: CNBC and the MSM

Stick a fork in them, done: Jeb

Winner? Early polls, Trump although all should wait

[mpinco]

The real winners? Royals and Mets

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi all

Thanks for great comments. I have posted my full debate review. Spoiler: I gave it to Christie. Cruz did very well. Carson surprised and will hold steady. Marco had good night as did Fiorina but neither shined. Biggest loser was Jeb Bush. His and Kasich's campaigns are now on death-watch. Rand Paul was nowhere. Huckabee is officially too old and confused to continue to run. Trump was ok.

Lets move the debate review discussion to that thread but please also feel free to continue here the previous discussions.

Tomi Ahonen :-)