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« The Trump Debates Round 2: Now the polls are in, who lost, who gained | Main | Projecting From Kantar Statistics for August Quarter, to Global Smartphone Market Q3 »

September 30, 2015

Comments

Wayne Borean


I wouldn't buy the Priv. Never could stand keyboards.

But that's me.

HuaHua

Nothing about Huawei?

tk

How about Intex? They have just recently announced their intention to partner with Jolla?

abdul muis

@Tomi

Sundar Pichai gave an interesting statistic yesterday at the Google Press event of the launching of Google Nexus's.

There were 1.4 Billion monthly ACTIVE user of android that were connecting to Google server (Youtube, GMail, PlayStore, Drive, Photo, Maps, etc). BUT ONLY 1 Bilion monthly ACTIVE user that downloading apps. So, 400 million of those user active user not active downloading apps.

abdul muis

About Blackberry...

First,
I wonder if the Physical Keyboard still cool? I thought the Phablet (5.5"+ Smartphone) killed the physical keyboard because it's easier to use (with swype), and you got more screen estate, not to mention less bulky.

Second,
Blackberry only sold 800K phone last quarter, I think this quarter will be even worse, since the BB Priv would go into market in about the last week of this quarter. I wonder if this situation fall into OSBORNE-ING BB?

Third,
Blackberry CEO, John Chen, explicitly said (when pushed by questioner in their earning report metting) that IF the government & corporate accept the Priv, then Blackberry will MERGE BB10 & Android product line. I was wondering if this burning platform part deux is better than the original burning platform (by Elop)

abdul muis


No Asus? I thought they doing great, and better than HTC.


Asus is taking the Android crowd by storm when releasing the Asus Zenfone 2.

Tester

@abdul muis:

"I was wondering if this burning platform part deux is better than the original burning platform (by Elop)"

The difference:

Symbian wasn't dead when it got burned.
BB10, on the other hand is not only dead but a half rotten corpse. Nothing to gain from it anymore as the mere existence of the Priv shows.

Catriona

Everyone, everyone, everyone, everyone, everyone mentioned China was included this year and not last year (it was also included in the iPhone 5s launch). Almost every analyst is expecting flat growth (or maybe a couple of percentage points up). Your insight about the 13 million sales vs. 10 million sales isn't anything new, Tomi. 13 million was exactly in line with published analyst estimates, and below their "whisper" numbers. Most are saying it supports their view of flat to modest growth this year.

The launch weekend sales really come down to how much supply Apple had on hand. They had plenty of iPhone 6S in every color, though the rose gold quickly sold out. The iPhone 6S Plus was in tight supply again this year. But the fact that they had enough in stock to include China in the launch means to me that they didn't have the same supply chain constraints they had with the iPhones in previous years (or with the MacBook and Watch earlier this year). It also tells me that demand in China is holding up fairly well. More interestingly,

Interestingly, Samsung is launching their magnetic strip-compatible payment system just as the U.S. is finally adopting chip readers. Liability shifts to retailers starting tomorrow if they aren't using chip readers. It will be another year before most smaller shops roll them out, but the big chains will be turning them on tonight (if they haven't already). It does give Samsung Pay an advantage, but it will be short-lived over Apple Pay and stock Android Pay.

I'm surprised you didn't mention the Nexus 5X and 6P. Huawei is making the 6P, which is huge news since Huawei otherwise has difficulty getting in the U.S. market. Nexus phones typically aren't huge sellers, as they aren't sold by the carriers, though Google did get them whitelisted on Verizon and Sprint. However, this year they are aggressively priced and feature rich.

abdul muis

@Tester

"Symbian wasn't dead when it got burned.
BB10, on the other hand is not only dead but a half rotten corpse. Nothing to gain from it anymore as the mere existence of the Priv shows."

LOL. Agree.
I just want to hear Tomi's thought on this subject, because he seems to be able to see beyond what we see.

Lullz

The 13 million phones sold in the launch weekend are not really telling that much about the December quarter but they do tell that the current quarter is going well and also that Apple is most likely going to gain market share in 2015 compared to 2014. I have been thinking that since January but of course as long as it hasn't happened, Apple is not there yet. Anyway, the signs were there already in January.

Tester

@Lullz:

Feel free to be optimistic. But the reality will probably sink in next year then when Apple has to compete against the sales boost from the large screens.

And to be honest, I can't wait for the moment of truth when the Apple magic finally starts to wear off.

Lullz

@Tester

"Feel free to be optimistic. But the reality will probably sink in next year then when Apple has to compete against the sales boost from the large screens."

I suppose you are one of those people who truly hate Apple and apparently people who say something positive about it. At least that I got from your old messages.

I can't avoid the same feeling from that message you posted just now. You are saying how I can feel optimistic but how the reality will sink next year. You didn't even understand, apparently because you are that angry, that I was talking about 2015 and not next year. That wasn't obvious to you even while I said 2015.

"And to be honest, I can't wait for the moment of truth when the Apple magic finally starts to wear off."

I believe you can't wait for that to happen. It's unquestionable that you are that pissed off because of Apple and because of people who think the company is doing well. What I don't get is why is that? Why are you focusing all that negative energy towards Apple? What has Apple done to you? Usually people focus on the good companies and talk about some positive events they like. Maybe they make some sarcastic comments about the competitor but that's usually it if they are serious about evaluating the mobile market.

Could you tell me what's good and positive with mobile? Tell us about companies doing well and possibly about some you think may have a positive future.

We know you can't wait Apple to fail and you would probably love to see iOS gone. We know that.

Yet I can honestly say how in January I saw the signs for Apple to gain market share in 2015. You had a different opinion at the time.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Tomi:

I personally have a soft spot for the Xperia line (being the legacy of Ericssons phones, and those have worked great for me in the past) - Any idea how the Z5 will fare?

I'm not expecting Sony to be back in the top 10 anytime soon, but I do think the Xperias are very well-made solid Android phones, and they do deserve a better fate than obscurity IMO. Might be too late for them too though.

abdul muis

@Lullz

You're getting too personal in the cat fight. It's OK for someone to think if a company will rise/fail on their strategy. You don't have to be offended by @Tester comment.

Earendil Star

Some are saying that "everyone, everyone, everyone, everyone, everyone, everyone, everyone, everyone, everyone, everyone, everyone, everyone mentioned China was included this year and not last year" when comparing iPhone first weekend of sales. BS. Just go and check Wired or many other websites out there, and they will say "Gasp! Apple sold a record numbers of iPhones this weekend".
Wired states: "Today the company said it that it had sold more than 13 million new iPhone 6S and 6S Plus models over this past opening weekend (Foursquare called it). This is—you guessed it—a new record all over again, tearing past last fall’s record of more than 10 million."

Reality is, only few are aware of this slight difference. But never mind. Do not dare disturbing the Apple marketing machine.

Meanwhile, are the new iPhones waterproof or not? Maybe not, but another big selling point for Apple, with no risks attached if they fail after being ditched in the water!

Lullz

@abdul muis

It's really strange when someone tells you he just can't wait for some company to wear off. Don't you agree?

That makes me really wonder why that is happening. If not hate I would at least say that is very string dislike. Why would anyone wish for a company to wear off if not that?

What would you say?

Lullz

@Earendil Star

"Reality is, only few are aware of this slight difference. But never mind. Do not dare disturbing the Apple marketing machine."

It looks fairly obvious that almost everyone is already aware of that. Besides, why would the sales of 13 million phones prove anything really? It's nice but come on, we have absolutely no idea about if that was about better supply or the product sold with a better marketing push. All we really know is that the current quarter is probably going to be better than the previous one.

I agree about making it waterproof but not marketing it as one. People will know that feature from the press and no one can say Apple lied about it if something goes wrong. This is something Apple is really doing better than the Android manufacturers.

chithanh

I'd say the mentions/non-mentions of China's importance in the reports about the iPhone's first sales weekend are pretty even.
Still, iSheep say the media is unfair to Apple, while Fandroids complain about the Tame Apple Press.

It's a bit like the perceived political affiliation of the media in the US. Conservatives say the media is too liberal, and liberals say the media is too conservative.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Lullz:

"I suppose you are one of those people who truly hate Apple and apparently people who say something positive about it. At least that I got from your old messages."

So being pessimistic about Apple makes you a hater?

Getting tired to explain to turfers/misguided fanbois such as yourself that your projections and forecasts aren't very probable makes you a hater? No, it's a question of looking forward to your world crumble when Apple does stumble. :)

I hate Apple about as much as Tomi does. The end of the growth is near, and another nail in the coffin will be when Apple reports Q3 2015 numbers, and they are again down from anticipated. I think somewhere around 50M-52M units sold for Q3 is a realistic figure to look at.

Of course the competition can be weaker than normal or Apple could find some magical new untapped source of customers. But, the most likely thing is that Apple will see a slight decline in sales Q4 this year, but a better Q1 2016 (remember Chinese new year and China still being a fresh market).

Catriona

@Earendil Star, just about every financial analyst pointed out that China was included in the launch. That's why they had published expectations of 12-13 million iPhone sales. The pre-order period lasted another week, as well. Some pointed that out, too. For a more apples-to-apples comparison, the 5C/5S launch included China, and was an "S" update like this one. They sold 9 million on launch weekend. However, there were no pre-orders, except for the slower-selling iPhone 5C.

Last year, people were disappointed after launch weekend because Apple sold "only" 10 million iPhones during the launch weekend. That was followed by a quarter that completely blew expectations. This year, a lot of financial analysts were disappointed that Apple sold "only" 13 million iPhones during launch weekend. We'll see what this quarter brings in January. Of course, there will be a little more noise ("Other" will include a new Apple TV and the holiday push for the Apple Watch), but everyone's focus will be on the iPhone.

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