Communities Dominate Brands

Tidbits and Noise from Smartphone Wars

Well the totally dead summer of 2015 in smartphones is past and we are just starting to get a tiny inkling of bits of news, mostly just noise but at least something. So whats going on.

Apple celebrates its 13 million unit sales of iPhones in the first weekend. That sounds like a massive jump of 30% more than last year when they sold 10 million in the first weekend. Until you notice that last year the first weekend didn't include China (the world's largest smartphone market where roughly speaking almost one third of all smartphones are sold). So no China last year, now there was China sales, that accounts for at least 3M of the 13M (probably more) and what do we get out of it? When we consider honest apples-to-apples comparison, at best the first weekend sales are as good as last year, at worst, it is worse than last year (if China was actually more than 3M out of the 13M now). What does this foretell? Very very VERY preliminary sign yes, we may see flat iPhone sales this Christmas quarter compared to last year's Christmas quarter. That... is not exactly how I am seeing most tech and business analysts greet these numbers, but alas, they are blinded by the Apple Distortion Field.

Blackberry hasn't quite yet died. And now they have officially shown the world the new physical QWERTY-slider (narrow format keyboard like Blackberries had always, not wide like Nokia Communicators for example) and its called the Priv. Best of all, it also runs Android! Wanna see the pictures? Slash Gear has the Blackberry pictures. For the record, I think this is a brilliant move and will see Blackberry smartphone unit sales jump once those Priv units are offered widely - and I personally will buy one. How big will the boost be, is anybody's guess because its been so long since we've last seen a proper slider solution to a large touch screen and a physical QWERTY but yeah, I bet it will sell well. Lets see if this can save the company.

Coolpad has launched an entry-level Android basic smartphone in the USA on T-Mobile. Good luck. But clearly Coolpad like most Chinese brands who climb into the Top 10 get very hungry to want to expand internationally.

Talking about international expansion. Xiaomi's first international market was India and they have now celebrated a cumulative 3 million smartphones sold there in more than half a year. Not exactly setting the world on fire outside of China (as I predicted).

Lenovo is doing better, its Motorola brand has sold nearly double since it returned to India, and announced 5.6 milion sold so far. Meanwhile on the parent Lenovo brand, a new phablet. Ho-hum...

Samsung is rumored to be working on a foldable screen smartphone (so you fold it like a book, get twice the screen area. Oh, and Samsung's mobile wallet launching in the USA.

In the minnow category, Russian Yotaphone is expanding to China. India's largest domestic phone maker Micromax is targeting a USA launch for next year. 

I think thats the bullk of relevant news. Microsoft's Lumia continues to be dead, its last new sales market share was down to 2.5% and after the latest cuts, expect that to approach now the 2% level. And alongside Lumia, Windows Phone continues to be dead. The installed base of Windows Phone OS out of all smartphones is at 2% and falling. There is no hope on this platform that all smart developers have already abandoned or are now jumping off the sinking ship. More news as some emerges..

The Trump Debates Round 2: Now the polls are in, who lost, who gained

Ok, we have now had 4 polls reporting after the second Republican debate and we can do some analysis of who won and who lost in the second round (and obviously this is not a tech/mobile blog article, its about US politics)

I took, as I always do, the Real Clear Politics polling average screen shot just before the debate, with the latest four polls reported just before the CNN debate last week, and now we have the first four polls out after the debate. We can do a before-and-after comparison of the candidates. I will also include the change for those who gained or lost more than one point in the polls:

CANDIDATE . . BEFORE DEBATE . . AFTER DEBATE . . . GAIN/LOSS
Trump . . . . . . . 30.5% . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.0% . . . . . . . . . . . - 6.5%
Carson . . . . . .  20.0% . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.3% . . . . . . . . . . . - 3.7%
Bush . . . . . . . . . 7.8% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.8% . . . . . . . . . . . + 2.0%
Cruz . . . . . . . . . 6.8% . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6.5%
Rubio . . . . . . . .  5.3% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3% . . . . . . . . . . . + 4.0%
Huckabee . . . . . 4.5% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5%
Fiorina . . . . . . .  3.3% . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.8% . . . . . . . . . . . + 8.5%
Paul . . . . . . . . .  3.3% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5%
Walker . . . . . . .  3.0% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5% . . . . . . . . . . .  - 2.5%
Kasich . . . . . . .  2.5% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0%
Christie . . . . . .  1.5% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5% . . . . . . . . . . .  + 2.0%
Source: Real Clear Politics polling averages

So that is what the winners and losers look like. In absolute points of percentage of support, Trump lost 6.5 points, Carson lost 3.7 points, Walker lost 2.5 points. The best gains, Fiorina picked up 8.5 points, Rubio 4.0 points and Bush and Christie both added 2.0 points.

If you want to look at gain or loss in support as a ratio, Walker obviously lost nearly all of his support. Trump and Carson both lost about one in five supporters. The winners, Fiorina more than tripled her support. Christie added more than double support. Rubio added nearly double his support and Bush added about one quarter more to his support. Oh, and yes, Trump was past 30% before the debate but now four polls in a row place his support back into the 20s. We have seen 'peak Trump' (at least for now, unless Trump can create another jump with more of his media stunts)

But now lets also think a bit about WHERE the support went. We know there is this rebellion anti-estalishment protest vote. Trump and Carson had gained on it, now they lost support. Did it all go to Fiorina, the third protest outsider candidate? Most of it yes but not all. She got 8.5 points but they lost 10.2 points. So 1.7 points or one in six voters, left the protesting side, and went back to the establishment side, very likely to Rubio who got so much but some also to Bush or Christie. 

And where did Walker's losses go to? They went to Rubio, Bush and Christie. Also note that the undecided number is coming down, from 9.9% to 8.0% so nearly two points of voters had now decided to pick a candidate, and they went to the establishment side, explaining the rest of the gains with Rubio, Bush and Christie.

(as to the 'Kids table' there is no movement there, its all well within the noise of rounding-off-error and within margin of error of the polling)

So its rather clearly the big winner is Fiorina with Rubio second. Bush and Christie also had a good debate improving their standing. Losers were Walker (who is obviously now out), Trump and Carson.

As to the establishment side of the race, there are now two tiers clearly (or three tiers if you want to still remember the kids table). Bush, Rubio and Cruz are in the stong camp. The weak camp is Huckabee, Kasich, Christie and Paul. I do think the eventual nominee comes from the establishment side, not the rebellion side, and as Rubio and Bush have to duke it out in Florida, one of those two won't really be viable past Florida (ie Rubio will be out and Bush continues).

So if you want to consider who is in the real race on the Republican side once the silliness wears out, consider Bush, Cruz, Huckabee, Kasich, Christie and Paul. And Paul will never make it but he will pick up some delegates yes. Christie is a very dark horse but if he has a hot debate moment, he could have a Newt Gingrich-like rise suddenly (I would say he is the only one capable of that). Beyond that, its Bush vs Cruz vs Huckabee vs Kasich. Throw in Fiorina, I think she has the best chances of joining from the rebellion side (Carson will never be the nominee and Trump will wear out before the voting ends, possibly even before the voting starts).

Yes it was a historic field of 17 candidates. We can now take the serious race to be five maybe six candidates if you want to add Chrstie as a dark horse to Bush, Cruz, Huckabee, Kasich and Fiorina. This is now becoming 'manageable' as a race.. even with the clown show that is Donald Trump and Dr Ben 'Muslims cannot be President even though the Constitution expressly says religion cannot be used to exclude anybody' Carson.

Its still very intersting times (oh and Hillary is utterly cruising to a landslide victory, she is still sleepwalking this 'race' but at least we will get the first Democratic party debate next, so maybe she'll bother to wake up at that point).

What Experts Said About Original iPhone - Digg has dug through archives and picked highlights

Some said it will die, other said it will perform miracles. The original iPhone was launched just over 8 years ago. What did the experts back then say about this new Apple device. Remember, it wasn't a smartphone, most people were not surfing the internet on phones, it was Apple's 'Musicphone' as the response to Sony's Walkman phones and the like, as a brother to the iPod music player. What did people write when Apple introduced the iPhone in 2007? Digg has a great overview of the scope of the opinions. And kindly they included my 'Jesusphone' blog, ie the one where I said we will measure mobile phone industry in two times, the time Bi, Before iPhone, and the time Ai After iPhone, similar to how Western calendar is divided in time before and after the birth of Jesus Christ.

It was one of my most perfect blog postings. Note, I wrote it before the first iPhone unit was sold, before anyone other than Apple people had even touched an iPhone. Absolutely everything in it came true, from the IT industry to the advertising industry; even to such bizarre obscure and mostly ignored points such as, that Nokia N-Series will sell more than iPhone and yet that nobody will care because all will be mesmerized by the shiny new iPhone... Yeah, that was an epic blog I wrote in 2007. Still worth reading today haha. Thanks Digg for including CDB blog on the survey of what people said about the iPhone and while I never used the term 'Jesusphone' in the blog, it was a mistaken reference to my blog that created that term (because I did talk about the Christian calendar BC/AD ie Bi and Ai), so inadvertently, I am the father of the term Jesusphone too :-)

Postscript - how could I be so perfect in that prediction in 2007 before anyone had even played with iPhones? Nobody can be that clever, that intelligent, that smart, that foresightful (on the spot). And neither was I. It does come to Roman philosopher Seneca's famous idiom: Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity. I was incredibly prepared for the Apple phone. So the iPhone came out in June 2007. I was at Nokia HQ back in 2001 (before I left to start my own consultancy in October) when we did our annual internal global strategy review round among the various department bosses at HQ. Me being in charge of Nokia's consulting and the massive global consumer end-user research of mobile phones and mobile services, of course I was involved (being one of the most junior of execs in that process, haha). But yes, back in 2001, six years before Apple launched its first mobile phone, Nokia had in its internal strategy round identified which non-mobile company was the biggest threat to Nokia. Apple. Note that Apple had just released its iPod and there was not even the Motorola-Rokr collaboration project on the horizon at this time. Yet Nokia HQ could see very clearly that Apple would enter the handset industry at some point in the future, and become a bigger threat to Nokia long-term than Motorola or SonyEricsson or Samsung etc. Why was this? Because Apple was the master of the best user experience. And if you can remember back to mobile phones back in 2001, Nokia was THE best, easiest-to-use handset at that time. It was our competitive advantage. Nokia's were the easiest to use. And we knew then, in 2001, that if and when Apple entered the handset market, they would steal this one advantage from Nokia instantly. That of course, an Apple mobile phone would become instantly the best at usability, just like how Macs were easiest-to-use PCs and iPods the best musicplayers.

So, first level of prep. I had been involved in the internal debates at Nokia six years before the iPhone, about what Apple would be in mobile phones. That gives you plenty of time to think and digest.

Second was this blog and the iPod debate. Those who've been here for ten years reading CDB will remember how incredibly heated the arguments became when I (correctly) called the timing of the peak of iPod musicplayer sales one year before that peak came. I was crucified on this blog by the Apple fanatics. Yet years later, we found out not only obviously that my forecast had been 100% correct, but even that Apple itself had monitored the EXACT same trend at EXACTLY the same time and started to develop its 'musicphone' response to the end of iPod dominance of pocketable music players, because the Sony Walkman and other musicphones by phone makers now would outsell stand-alone music players like the iPod. I am a numbers-driven guy as you all know. When I saw the numbers, I reported them. Then came the firestorm. But part of the firestorm was also the repeated arguments from every conveivable side, for and against the iPod. for and against Apple, for and against the Mac, and yes, fore and against an 'iPod phone' ie iPhone. We rehearsed many of the iPhone arguments on this blog in 2006 in almost endless debates. That was very good prep for me, for when the iPhone then came. My views had become crystal clear.

Then was the 3G Mobile Forum in Tokyo. In late 2006 the biggest telecoms event of Japan which had me often speaking, invited me again to present at their next event held in late January 2007, but the organizers asked me to take on a topic for which they could not find a speaker. They wanted me to speak on handset user interface design. How often do you see me talking of handset UI here on this blog haha, it is CLEARLY not my core competence, but if that was what they needed, I said I know some good people who can help me and I'll do the best I can. It was on day 3 of a 3 day conference, I was expecting a modest turnout on a boring topic. And I had prepared a good presentation with the help of my friends at Fjord for example. And then, two weeks before I was set to speak, Steve Jobs has his iPhone moment on stage 'one more thing' and suddenly the iPhone - and user experience - is the hottest thing in mobile. And at Japan's biggest telecoms event, multiple-bestselling mobile author Tomi Ahonen will talk about the brand new iPhone!!!

My topic was handset UI design, not the iPhone. But of course everybody knew I had to talk about the just-announced iPhone (without anyone having yet seen it more than the pictures and Steve Jobs's promo presentation). So now, taking all the history of 6 years of thinking about Apple and mobile, and adding what Jobs showed about the iPhone, I had to add about 5 minutes of iPhone 'insights' to my Tokyo presentation. And of course I seeked the guidance of all my most trusted friends, to make sure I was not going to make a fool or myself on stage in Tokyo.

But that was JANUARY of 2007. I gave a presentation of what the iPhone will be and how it will change (or not) the world. That was still five months before my famous Jesusphone blog. So then I had more months to think and digest and debate and plot and prepare. So when it was time to write that blog, very likely, apart from people inside Apple, I was probably the most deeply knowledgable expert about the iPhone. Like Seneca said, Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity. That blog had been six years in the making, with two very significant refinements along the way, with this blog and my readers here playing a significant part in helping me refine my message. That is how you become lucky. You need to be prepared. As Finnish boyscouts say: Ole valmis: Aina valmiina! (Be prepared, always prepared). And if you want to marvel at how perfectly one blog can predict eight years of the future of the most volatile industry in human history, re-read my iPhone blog of May 2007.

Trump Debates part 2: Now we know 2 of the 4 finalists in 2016 election (spoiler: both are women)

So the CNN Republican debate is now done. First off, pretty good job by CNN to construct a format that had more 'clash' between the candidates rather than the reciting of stump speeches and press conference talking points. But we have now found the second of four finalists on the two tickets for 2016. Hillary Clinton has not yet selected her Vice President, so we know one name from the Democratic side. And almost certainly we now know one of the two names of the Republican side. We don't know if she'll be the nominee for VP or President, but Carly Fiorina has now illustrated she will be picked as the VP by anyone else on the platform. So the question for her is, can she actually take the Republican nomination itself.

CARLY WINS AGAIN

So yeah. I think Carly Fiorina knocked it out of the park in the debate. She came very prepared and focused and energized (compare to Rand Paul or Scott Walker or John Kasich). She was very strong on the details, citing statistics, giving very solid details about her positions, but also was able to give great emotionally-connecting stories. Several times she gave a surprising - but refreshing - counterintuitive response - like on Putin not that she'd talk to him, no she would stop talking and simply act tough. Or on the which woman on the 10 dollar bill, she said no woman, its just a gesture... She attacked Trump well but also took the clever (no doubt well planned) route on the 'ugly face' issue referring to women knowing well what Trump meant. And her closing while clearly a canned speech, was very strong.

I am sure Carly will see her polling jump more after this debate. She was already in third place in one of the state polls, I think she can now rise to the top tier in the national polls too. And she is 'crossing over' where she not only appeals to those Republican voters who want an outsider to clean up Washington DC, but also made a very strong pitch to the foreign policy 'leg' of base Republican support and also to the life/religious voters. So Fiorina is likely going to steal votes both from the outsiders (Trump/Carson) and from the establishment side.

I think we've seen enough of Fiorina that she is REALLY well prepared and she communicates REALLY well. She handles the debate format REALLY well. And for Republican voters, seeing Hillary on the other side taking female votes, Fiorina obviously adds the 'cancelling effect' about women so she has that 'electability' issue on her side too. So I am ready to call it that Fiorina will now ascend to the top tier 'permanently' (only a scandal or health issue could derail that) and regardless of how many delegates she ends up getting, she'll be on the ticket either as President or Vice President with the only caveat, that if the primary process will not find a winner on the Republican side (ie a 'brokered convention' situation) in that case it could be any pairing of front-runners and that is the only way that Fiorina might not be on the ticket.

TRUMP SLUMPS

So Trump? He came in overconfident and ill-prepared. He was attacked by half of the field (and the undercard kids' table debaters too) and Trump came across timid at times, childish at times, and had very little of the appeal he had the first time. I think this is partly the problem of Trump wanting it now seriously and committing to the race - so he got himself professional support such as debate coaches - and he's been told he has to tone it down. When he is toned down, he's just a 'low energy Chris Christie'. Look at Christie. He outshone Donald Trump in the debate now. 

Part of the fireworks was Fiorina now in this debate (she was attacking Trump from the kids' table last time) and with Jeb Bush taking the gloves off and willing to attack Trump. Rand Paul was again eager to attack Trump and Scott Walker now also joined in the attacks. And Paul's opening attack that Trump is sophomoric set the stage that part of Trump's attacks did seem flat and childish. 

Now, what happens? I think we've seen peak Trump support. Some who have joined the Trump bandwagon will stay with him and probably he has a base of support somewhere in the 20% range in the shorther run, and nearer maybe 15% in the longer run. I think we'll see a decline after the debate (mostly going to Fiorina) but there are also big ad blitzes now coming against Trump from independent political action groups and a 24 million dollar ad campaign by Jeb Bush. These will gradually erode Trump's support more. And the 'inevitability' and 'invincibility' image will end and some of Trump's support will go with that. 

It then becomes a fascinating storyline, of will Trump quit. Will he quit before Iowa, if his polling shows he won't win that vote anymore. If he's also no longer number 1 in New Hamspshire, then he really could suddenly announce the bombshell news that he quits suddenly. But equally, Trump is now so much committed and his political advisors say its an up-and-down world in politics, and Trump is still solid gold for TV interviews ie free publicity, he could and probably will remain in the early race. Then it depends on how the actual votes come in. He doesn't want to be known as a loser so if he loses badly, he will feel the urge to quit. And remember, with ten or even a dozen candidates at the first primaries, Trump won't need 50% to win a state, he could win Iowa with 20% or even less as long as no rival solidifies the support as a clear front-runner. I think (and this is a very difficult season to guess well) that Trump has now seen his peak in support and his support will fall gradually to nearer 20% in the near term (till next debate) and probably will go down further to below 20% by the time first primaries start in 2016.

BUSH IS REAL

So then Jeb. He came in prepared and 'energized'. He had a good debate, not great. He handled plenty of attacks well and threw a bunch of punches especially at Trump. He also used humor several times well. This is a top tier long term viable candidate who is ready for 2016. Considering the enormous war-chest he has in his campaign funding, we have now seen 'the real Jeb' and its sure he'll be a top tier candidate in the early races. If Jeb can keep this level of performance in the upcoming campaign, he'll do just fine in the early races (not winning those states but collecting delegates) and the big crushing victories will start on Super Tuesday and beyond, when the states are 'winner take all' and when money matters the most.

Bush has fallen badly from his early front-runner positions but I think he can now gradually start to claw back some support and get into double-digits again. Bush is in a marathon where none of the early going is good for him but he also knows - and his supporters know - he doesn't need to win those to remain viable. But that sleepy 'low energy' Jeb we saw early, is now evolving - a good example of how the US process will refine candidates and make them better. Trump has made Jeb a stronger candidate.

GRAHAM LOST IN FIORINA SHADOW

So Lindsay Graham had the great debate in the junior table. Before the main debate started, I was thinking Graham has done so well, he'll move into the Top 10. He was clearly far more prepared and energized and funny and connected with the audience, than Santorum, Pataki or Jindal. But Graham's whole pitch is foreign policy. And then we heard Fiorina in the main debate, constantly pushing the military angle. If you wanted a strong military leader, Carly just stole Lindsay's candy. I do think Graham will see an uptick in his (non-existent) support but he won't crack the Top 10 because Fiorina took that same tactic and she did it even better, and has far more to offer than just lets make the military stronger.

CARSON I STILL DON'T UNDERSTAND

Dr Ben Carson is still the total mystery to me. I think he was sleepwalking through the debate and had weak answers and is utterly out of his depth. Obviously he's in second place in the polls getting about 20% so one in five Republican voters seem to prefer him (why why why, I can't see it). But if you want an outsider and don' t trust Trump, maybe part of Carson's appeal is in that constituency. Fiorina now will appeal to those. Religious conservativess? Ok, he can hold onto those but Fiorina made a good push for that too. And I think Huckabee has made a strong play for that, kind of his 'home field' support. I would expect Carson support to decline but remember, I thought so last time and was wrong. He is just something I totally don't get.

KASICH IS THE DARK HORSE

Ohio Governor John Kasich was trying to play the 'only adult in the room' card - and did it pretty well. He also has a REALLY strong track record for the traditional Republican 'moderate' voter race. He played a shrewd tactic for the debate, constantly pivoting back to his own record and still teaching the voters about his background rather than engage in the personal attack fireworks. He is a 'technocrat' and he comes across as boring, so he is unlikely to jump to the top of the polls, but I am confident this second solid (but not stellar) performance will appeal to many moderate supporters and especially donors. I think the 'moderate' wing of the Republican voters will now find a two-way race between Bush and Kasich.

THE REST OF MAIN DEBATE

So the others. I don't see anyone really failing (Carson to me was worst). Rand Paul was again unfocused and had moments but was not consistent. Ted Cruz believes passionately in himself but I don't see him reaching new supporters. Scott Walker did have a better debate now than last time but still nothing to write home about. Marco Rubio did have a solid debate but not even as remarkable as the first debate so he won't be gaining from this, especially again, that Fiorina stole the foreign policy thunder. Mike Huckabee seems a shadow of what he was eight years ago. And Chris Christie clearly enjoys the debate format but I don't see him scoring in any meaningful way.

THE LOSER TABLE

And apart from Graham, the other three on the loser table are probably now starting to plan how to end their run. Texas Governor Rick Perry aka Governor Oops has already quit. Jim Gilmour support was so low he wasn't even invited to the kids' table and he may have quit already. But Bobby Jindal, George Pataki and Rick Santorum, At least one possibly all three will quit before the year has ended. They won't climb in the polls. Lindsay Graham has some chance of surviving.

THE BIG WINNER

The big winner was Hillary Clinton. The smart play by Republican candidates to use the biggest ever Fox audience last time and now the biggest-ever CNN TV audience this time, would have been to hammer at all the faults of Hillary Clinton and the Democratic position. They were barely mentioned in the whole 3 hour debate marathon (5 hours if we add the junior debate). Obama, who won't be on the ballot anymore in 2016, was probably more mentioned than Hillary. Chris Christie did try to get the debate focus shifted but to no avail. The next debate will be the first Democratic debate also on CNN, next month. That debate I am certain, will focus on all the outrageous positions that this Republican field has been saying.

So now how will this play out in the next months. I think Trump polling support should now start to recede, but probably not collapse. Because of the big advertising attacks on him and as more rivals are willing to attack Trump directly, his support should continue to erode. How the master of TV attention reacts to that development remains to be seen. He is likely to try ever more outrageous things to say to get back the attention and spotlight. But with the 'ugly face' episode now past the second stage with Fiorina the clear winner, we may also have found that Trump can be beaten and in the future some attacks like Trump on McCain or Megan Kelly will not be so clearly 'won' by Trump anymore (and in the future, any such attacks will also bring back Fiorina's debate response to 'ugly face' thus Fiorina will always get extra bonus mentions when Trump picks fights).

The Republican establishment can't wait for Trump to be gone. I doubt he will be out before December and he may well stay in it through the early primaries into say February or early March (would be disasterous for the party). But if he has now peaked and starts to see gradual but unstoppable erosion of his polling support falling to second, third, fourth.. that would grate on Trump's nerves and he'd hate to have that thrown into his face every day, how are the latest polls... I think he has a thin skin and can't take the repeated questions about the declining stature, and Trump's instinctive response is always ugly, so we'd probably see ever more the ugly side of Trump, a fine carnival act to entertain us, but not someone who can be elected President.

Once Trump is past, we can start the real process of weeding out the actual candidates. Take Trump out (and lets say Carson is also only a bizarre joke by the election gods) then it does become... Bush, Rubio, Fiorina, Kasich, Walker, Huckabee, Cruz, Paul; with perhaps Christie also hanging in the mix. But consider the 'anti-establishment' vote. It could very well coalesce around Fiorina and give her something near 40% support especially if Trump quits (and after Carson is also petered out). Now take the remaining 60% and split it with Bush, Kasich, Cruz, Paul, Walker, Huckster etc... its rather easy to see scenarios where Fiorina wins several of the early primaries simply if she can pick up much of Trump's anti-establishment supporters and take some from Carson. At this point she can't be thought of as the front-runner and I don't think the next polls will give it to her either, but its two perfect debate performances in a row. Imagine one more of these and Fiorina might be the front runner by late November.. If so, not bad timing for voting that starts in the new year.

So, unless the Republican race goes into a 'brokered convention' or at least cannot find a clear winner by the end of the primary season - and I'd love to see that simply as a political junkie even as it would devastate the Republican chances - excepting for that scenario, and of course with the usual caveats of scandals or health issues, we now know two of the four names of 2016. There will be two women on the two tickets, one on either side. Hillary will head the Democratic ticket, and Fiorina will be either VP or Presidential candidate on the Republican ticket against her. Judging by how strong Carly was in these debates, Hillary will hope someone emerges to beat Fiorina to the top of the ticket; she does not want to debate Fiorina one-on-one three times in 2016 on prime time TV.

iPhone S Models blah-blah-blah, 12mp is truly lame at this time blah-blah-blah, annual market share will be down vs 2014

So the new iPhone S models are out. Am so underwhelmed with 12mp camera as the big tech upgrade. The old joke still holds, to see what will be in next iPhone, look at a 5 year old Nokia flagship (yes the Nokia N8 had 12mp back in 2010). And rose gold color? Ooh, color me unimpressed. The time when colors were big news in mobile phones was about 15 years ago - incidentially also a Nokia invention. But yeah. So faster guts, big whoopte do. 

There was no dual SIM or waterproofing or anything radical that could help now. There was no update to the 'nano' model ie the entry-level model iPhone 5C. And these two 6S and 6S Plus iPhones will of course be appealing to Apple users who have been begging for more colors and better cameras but for the rest of us, no, this is not going to help reverse Apple's diminishing annual market share trend. But that gap in price/performance grows ever larger with each iPhone model and soon many consumers will simply arrive to the conclusion that the emperor doesn't have clothes (or the few it has, are way too expensive compared to rivals). iPhone market share will continue down. The iPhone owners (aka iSheep as I mockingly often call them and that is a crass oversimplification many do actually love Apple products for being the best gadgets in any category for usability and that is a virtue of course. Others love iToys for their bling factor, nothing wrong with that either if you go by style over substance). 

When most tech companies from cars to computers to phones release their latest flagship product, they have the common sense to at least achieve rough parity with the competition. Like the Plus model finally last year brought Phablets of roughly similar size. But come on, 12mp in 2015? At least back in the day when Apple went to the 8mp camera, that was still almost what rivals had. Today rivals go to 20mp and far above (41mp on Microsoft aka ex-Nokia). So Apple just nudged itself to be a bit less outdated... am so underwhelmed by this. 16mp or 20mp would have been ok. 12mp is already outdated now to all but the depraved iSheep who struggled with 8mp before. And don't write! take sensor size or lens optical construction etc - iPhones ALWAYS lag the leaders on all major camera tech issues. And then overcompensate with fancy software to try to patch up for the weaknesses. i am not saying megapixels only count but if you want glass optics or sensor size or true physical shutter or Xenon flash etc.. iPhones STILL lose big-time to the leaders. Pretty but overpriced phones.

So yeah, predictable Tomi blog on the new iPhones. Am disappointed. And mark my words, annual iPhone market share will be down again this year (calendar year 2015) vs 2014. Ok, I will now return to my holiday trip and my readers and various Apple fanatics, feel free to bicker in the comments haha, I will come back later to weed out the obvious trolls.