Some Notes From Smartpnone Wars, incl Samsung, Huawei, Olympus and Kantar latest numbers

A few comments relating to smartphones

 

Blackberry results came out last week. They managed to sell 1.1 million smartphones. Its still going down the Cliff, that is down from 1.6 million three months prior and Blackberry's market share is around 0.3%. And they are still making a loss. As I said the Passport form factor was not the solution.

Kantar has their latest numbers out. First off, Saamsung S6. Kantar told us that in the US market Samsung brand has made strong gains powered by the S6  That is definitely to be expected by any new flagsip by the world's largest phone brand but the alarming part... The older S5 is still outselling the S6 in the US market! That's a big ouch. And the US market is the one where the mistakes in the S6 design (no more microSD slot, no more removable battery and no more waterproofing) will have the least relevance, Samsung's customers in Africa, India, China etc will notice those deficiencies more than those in the USA and this sales pattern is likely worse in other markets. All consistent with the data that S6 is selling less rapidly than S5 or S4. Incidentially Kantar says in US market bestselling smartphone is S5, second bestselling is the iPhone and the S6 is only the third bestselling model...

So Kantar? We know how to read Kantar. You can't take their table comparing the last 3 months to the 3 months a year ago. There is far too much inaccuracy for global numbers using Kantar because they dont' survey much of the planet and even in China they only measure urban ie city markets. The way to read Kantar is as a 'leading indicator' of what this just-ended quarter (April-June) looks like compared to the previous quarter (January-March) for which we of course know the numbers. So by getting the '3 months ended March' data from Kantar's archive, and comparing that 3 month period to the latest data, we get very useful and usually quite reliable measures of what is going on.

By that methodology, and adjusting for population sizes and missing markets we do see rare uniformity in the Kantar numbers that Android is up in all regions vs Q1 and iOS is down in all. (Usually some markets re up, some are down). What does it look like? Looks like iPhone market share will be about 15% in Q2 ie about 50 million units of iPhones. iPhone down 2 points of market share from Q1 and Android up 2 points of market share. Meanwhile Windows Phone ie Lumia? Kantar numbers suggest they are again down and would be consistent with about 8 million total Lumia units in Q2 (although Microsoft might stop reporting Lumia sales after its latest restructuring, and if that happens, the results could be worse).

Then some other tidbits. Remember the funky Sony DSLR style accessory lenses from two years ago? Olympus has now launched a similar series to give you a DSLR style removable camera lens series for your cameraphone. Note these do not snap onto the existing camera of your phone, the Olympus lenses like the Sony lenses have their own camera sensor, and they only use your smartphone display as the viewfinder and as the remote control of the camera lens.

So on the Sony Xperia renaming mess. Can it possibly help the rebranded Xperia Z3+ that OTHER Xperia 4 models are now appearing? In Japan the Z3+ is sold as the Z4 so first off, the Z4 'exists'. Secondly, there is that Verizon Z4V in the US market which obviously now makes a mockery of the Z3+ branding elsewhere. But then the OTHER Xperia Z4 models? There's going to be a Z4 tablet and now the latest model is the Z4 Compact. All of these will ONLY FURTHER DAMAGE the sales of the renamded Z3+. And this happened at THE worst time when Samsung was stumbling. They are idiots at Sony and that marketing 'boss' who renamed the Z4 has to be fired. Sony should rename the remaining Z3+ back to Z4 in whatever markets it hasen't yet been released.

On Tizen. Samsung has passed the 1 million unit sales level with the Z1, its only Tizen smartphone model sold only in two countries, India and Bangladesh, in six months. Strong indication that more Tizen models 'should' be coming but we've heard these rumblings before and I won't believe it until I see it haha. Tizen should be expanding to several big markets next such as Russia, China etc. One million smartphones in six months is a promising start for the new OS but it HAS to be expanded now and fast. One million in six months means globally still only one seventh of one percent. But haha, Blackberry sold globally only 1.1 million smartphones in three months so yeah.. Tizen may be soon claiming its first scalp.

Windows Phone rumors continue that Satya Nadella will shut down the Lumia unit or severely curtail it further. That day is near, so be prepared.

Huawei reports roaring sales wtth 50 million smartphones sold in the first 6 months of 2015, so if Android sales are up and Samsung is stumbling, one of the winners seems to be Huawei. And they also are pushing the limits of phabet size, introducing a 6.8 inch screen to a phablet.

So thats a quick view to recent developments.. More soon.

Comments

[E.Casais]

MobileZone, the big mobile phone retailer in Switzerland, is offering the Samsung Galaxy S6 and S5, but also the S4 and S3!

As for Lumias, it gives only 4 models on offer (930, 830, 630 and the most recent the 640). This is a very restricted subset of the recent Lumia line-up (about a fourth of the models launched since the 930).

The Blackberry choice has been reduced to the Passport and the Classic. MobileZone no longer sells the previous Q* and Z* models.

[abdul muis]

@Tomi

I just wondering on the new rumors of Microsoft want to buy BB. Why??

[Lullz]

From this it looks like Apple is going to gain market share in 2015 compared to 2014. Of course this depends on the next iPhone launch. It needs to succeed well.

[RottenApple]

@Baron 95:

"What do those Europeans know that other don't?"

Nothing. Just emptying the bargain bins in the electronics stores, that's the only way how Microsoft was ever able to sell its stuff.

[abdul muis]

@Bolot95

"Boy, those Europeans (remember Tomi tells us that is the most advanced market in the world) sure love those Windows phones.

Windows Phone European-5 Market share goes from 8% to 9.5% in the last 3 months!!! And over 10 percent in France, Italy and UK - three of the top 4 economies in Europe. They must love their Skype or something.

What do those Europeans know that other don't?"

European LOVES NOKIA!!! They don't buy WP, they buy Nokia brand. Without Nokia brand, WP dead. And this is the reason Nokia+Android would be awesome.

[RottenApple]

Let's be clear about one thing.

I have seen lots of Windows Phones on offer in the electronics stores. These are generally €120 or less.
But one thing I have NEVER EVER seen is a Windows Phone with a subsidized contract or one being sold through a carrier.

They may or may not have a boycott in place, but either way, they just cannot control phones that are sold without contract or SIM lock. And that's where WP sells, that's also why this business, despite some percentage is doomed - the customers who buy these phones add little to no value to the ecosystem.

Of the three platforms, WP is by far the one bringing in the least revenue per user when counting my employer's app sales.

[chithanh]

@Baron95, ExNokian
It is correct what RottenApple writes. Lumias are in the bargain bin, and getting impulse buys from consumers who are shopping for feature phones.
For months now, European deals sites have been listing e.g. Lumia 530/532/630 for 60-70 EUR. For comparison, feature phones typically cost 20-40 EUR.

This is also consistent with other observations such as the discrepancy between Lumia shipments and activations, which Tomi reported about. Similar with app and advertising revenues. Many of the Lumias are just used as big-screen feature phones.

[chithanh]

@ExNokian
Incidentally, the Lumia 640 which you found on-contract seems to be the only device outside the bargain bin that still sells.

And for customers looking for feature phones, the Nokia brand is still strong, as is Lumia which is still associated with Nokia.

But as Nokia returns to (presumably Android) smartphones next year, that whole house of cards will come crashing doen.

[Catriona]

@Wayne, that makes a lot more sense. There is no way the Galaxy S5 is outselling the iPhone 6 in the U.S. Sure, the iPhone is now in its lull before the iPhone 6S is released in September, but it should still be outselling an even older Samsung flagship. What is surprising is that the S6 isn't outselling the iPhone right now. However, does that include the S6 Edge? That seems to be getting more attention. It's supply constrained, so perhaps it will sell decently in the long run.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Baron95:

It is relevant to discuss profits to a point. It is completely irrelevant if the profits are small, medium or large however, as long as the company turns a profit.

MS phones division isn't turning a profit, and isn't even close to turning a profit. It is still reporting losses.

Apple is in no danger of losing their huge profit margin - atleast not yet. Focusing on their profits isn't going to help you figure out how the iPhone market share will look like in 5 years time.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi all, a few responses..

E - Thanks for the local market update, very useful.

abdul - Doesn't make ANY sense whatsoever. Could maybe be old story accidentially resurfacing. Microsoft was interested in buying BB before they bought Nokia or around that time back when Ballmer was in charge. Since then makes zero sense unless Microsoft figures out a way to sell its existing Lumia with a profit. As Microsoft said it its SEC filings, it does not expect the Lumia business to become profitable in the near term.

Lullz - Correct reading of the math if these Kantar numbers hold for that level and if the rest of the year holds up well, most of all as you said, depends on Q4 new models. I don't think market share will hold or climb. But the decline in market share may be only modest.

Baron 95 - Don't put words in my mouth. You know PERFECTLY well that I have said consistently for the ten years this blog is up that the most advanced mobile market is Japan. Not Europe.

Rotten - Thanks (your observations of phones on sale)

Chithanh - very likely yes, when 'real' Nokia brand comes back on Android and stores still have some 'Lumia made by Microsoft' then that last house of cards comes falling down.

Wayne - thanks, good points and totally agree yes, good for Apple and very much not good for Samsung.

Ok will post these, more comments coming

(PS and don't even bother to respond to the trolls, I remove their comments, we don't need to entertain them here, just ignore them)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

More replies

Baron 95 - I removed that response too. You KNOW we are perfectly allowed to discuss the prices of smartphones, I do that all the time and we do that in the comments all the time. What is wrong with you?

Per - good summary (as usual), thanks

Wayne - no problem with that analysis although you know I have forecasted the iPhone market share to be somewhat lower than that, and base it on the decades-long history of the Mac vs Windows PCs. Even so, yes, I have also admitted the iOS ecosystem is large enough to be sustainable indefinitely, EXACTLY like the Mac. And then it means most major apps will be done on the big platform (Windows vs Mac or Android vs iOS) and iPhone users will bitch and cry about why their apps always come late (exactly like with the Mac) or their version are not as good. I have never said the iOS ecosystem will die. I have always said it will have a healthy 10% slice of the total market. But thats a niche. A big profitable niche but only a niche. Almost all US based smartphone app developers, however, are in a dream-land imagining iOS to be half of the world, or at least a third of the world. For THEM it will be a rude awakening that the big market was after all Android and iOS will be the niche only. I have warned about this since 2008 but most still don't get it. I think increasingly most who read this blog get it now - now - and if we bicker about is it 15% or 12% or 10% or 8% who cares, its the niche, where clearly Android won this war. And Windows will never be a factor.

Ok that brings me current in this thread today... keep up the discussions..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Wayne:

"There are as many iOS developers as Android developers...."

And so it was 1988, when the Macintosh stood head and shoulders above everyone else.

"as many (perhaps still more) iOS apps as Android apps."

See 1988.

"Within a few months of release, 75% of the iPhone market will be running the latest and greatest iOS version. There are only 3 screen sizes to handle."

And those 3 screen sizes are not handled uniformly like it is on Android (though as a developer I must say, Ubuntu is onto something with it's grid-based layouts: http://design.canonical.com/2015/06/the-grid-system-in-detail/).

iOS development is not *that* much easier than Android development. Also, the fact that iOS is so locked down there are several gateway hoops one must jump through, hindering development, especially for larger teams.

[RottenApple]

It seems the Apple astroturfers are on it again, distorting reality to promote their favorite fruit.

And behold this gem:

"Within a few months of release, 75% of the iPhone market will be running the latest and greatest iOS version. There are only 3 screen sizes to handle."

Wrong! Utterly wrong.
Currently you need to support 4 screen sizes for phones (iPhone 4 and up) and two screen sizes for tablets. Only the iPhone 3 (320x480) is old enough to be irrelevant.
But - and it's a bit 'but' - the way Apple handles this is extremely clumsy. There is no way to retroactively upgrade an old app to support a new emerging screen size. The app has to be reprogrammed to do that. In addition each time a new screen size comes up, another huge launch image needs to be added, I have seen apps where the multitude of necessary launch images constitutes more than 50% of the app's entire size!

I'd also say that anyone trying to code an app for explicit support of certain screen sizes is on the losing road already. The keyword is screen size independence. Android developers know how to do this, but every time I see code made by Apple 'experts' it's groan inducing with an unbelievably shortsighted attitude towards display handling.
Only recently _I had to finalize a game which was coded for 960x640. End of story. No chance to fix the code it was completely hardlocked to this aspect ratio, the only chance I had was to scale the output to the larger 16:9 screens that are current these days. And that was par for course for Apple developers, not the exception.

[Lullz]

@PWE

"And so it was 1988, when the Macintosh stood head and shoulders above everyone else."

You are probably relatively young if you think it was like that. Or maybe you just don't know. In 1988 PC was already getting superior software support and there is no question why that happened. MS-DOS was launched years before Mac and it had much longer time to gain software support.

"iOS development is not *that* much easier than Android development. Also, the fact that iOS is so locked down there are several gateway hoops one must jump through, hindering development, especially for larger teams."

If you had developed Android apps for global use you would know how painful it can be to test Android apps. There are tons of devices and you never can be really sure you well your app will work on them. The problem is with testing. Neither iOS or Android are hard to develop for. That's not the issue. The actual problem comes with testing the apps.

[Lullz]

@RottenApple

"I'd also say that anyone trying to code an app for explicit support of certain screen sizes is on the losing road already. The keyword is screen size independence."

We could argue endlessly about this but in the end of the day both platform have lots of small issues. For example Android developers are not always deploying Dalvik code and if a new incompatible CPU comes into play, that might be a serious issue. Google is promoting Java but some developers are not using it. This is why ART can't fix as many things as some were hoping it would. Small issues.

[adi purbakala]

@lulz

Developer made android app can do all in java/dalvik. Reason they not doing it because they want the code to be use in apple/microsoft/symbian/palm/etc.

Developer made iphone app must do it for each screen size iphone and ipad. No other way.

You could argue forever. But why being foolish.

[abdul muis]

https://twitter.com/xiaomi/status/616414920855257089/photo/1
We sold 34.7 million smartphones in 1H 2015 alone, a 33% year-on-year increase! Big thanks to Mi fans. RT the news!

Xiaomi manage to sell 34.7 million smartphone in 1H of 2015. The news come from Xiaomi official twitter page.

[Lullz]

@adi purbakala

"Developer made android app can do all in java/dalvik. Reason they not doing it because they want the code to be use in apple/microsoft/symbian/palm/etc."

As I said, every platform has some issues and this is one Android has. It's something the developers choose to do and it will potentially make some of the Android apps incompatible with the future processors.

[Winter]

@Wayne
"Adding 2 billion of the word's next poorest customers to the Android ecosystem is not going to change the app ecosystem, the ad ecosystem, the digital content ecosystem all that much."

Famous failed predictions, like the one from Ken Olsen.
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Incorrect_predictions#Computers

I read predictions like that about mobile phones.