Some Notes From Smartpnone Wars, incl Samsung, Huawei, Olympus and Kantar latest numbers

A few comments relating to smartphones

 

Blackberry results came out last week. They managed to sell 1.1 million smartphones. Its still going down the Cliff, that is down from 1.6 million three months prior and Blackberry's market share is around 0.3%. And they are still making a loss. As I said the Passport form factor was not the solution.

Kantar has their latest numbers out. First off, Saamsung S6. Kantar told us that in the US market Samsung brand has made strong gains powered by the S6  That is definitely to be expected by any new flagsip by the world's largest phone brand but the alarming part... The older S5 is still outselling the S6 in the US market! That's a big ouch. And the US market is the one where the mistakes in the S6 design (no more microSD slot, no more removable battery and no more waterproofing) will have the least relevance, Samsung's customers in Africa, India, China etc will notice those deficiencies more than those in the USA and this sales pattern is likely worse in other markets. All consistent with the data that S6 is selling less rapidly than S5 or S4. Incidentially Kantar says in US market bestselling smartphone is S5, second bestselling is the iPhone and the S6 is only the third bestselling model...

So Kantar? We know how to read Kantar. You can't take their table comparing the last 3 months to the 3 months a year ago. There is far too much inaccuracy for global numbers using Kantar because they dont' survey much of the planet and even in China they only measure urban ie city markets. The way to read Kantar is as a 'leading indicator' of what this just-ended quarter (April-June) looks like compared to the previous quarter (January-March) for which we of course know the numbers. So by getting the '3 months ended March' data from Kantar's archive, and comparing that 3 month period to the latest data, we get very useful and usually quite reliable measures of what is going on.

By that methodology, and adjusting for population sizes and missing markets we do see rare uniformity in the Kantar numbers that Android is up in all regions vs Q1 and iOS is down in all. (Usually some markets re up, some are down). What does it look like? Looks like iPhone market share will be about 15% in Q2 ie about 50 million units of iPhones. iPhone down 2 points of market share from Q1 and Android up 2 points of market share. Meanwhile Windows Phone ie Lumia? Kantar numbers suggest they are again down and would be consistent with about 8 million total Lumia units in Q2 (although Microsoft might stop reporting Lumia sales after its latest restructuring, and if that happens, the results could be worse).

Then some other tidbits. Remember the funky Sony DSLR style accessory lenses from two years ago? Olympus has now launched a similar series to give you a DSLR style removable camera lens series for your cameraphone. Note these do not snap onto the existing camera of your phone, the Olympus lenses like the Sony lenses have their own camera sensor, and they only use your smartphone display as the viewfinder and as the remote control of the camera lens.

So on the Sony Xperia renaming mess. Can it possibly help the rebranded Xperia Z3+ that OTHER Xperia 4 models are now appearing? In Japan the Z3+ is sold as the Z4 so first off, the Z4 'exists'. Secondly, there is that Verizon Z4V in the US market which obviously now makes a mockery of the Z3+ branding elsewhere. But then the OTHER Xperia Z4 models? There's going to be a Z4 tablet and now the latest model is the Z4 Compact. All of these will ONLY FURTHER DAMAGE the sales of the renamded Z3+. And this happened at THE worst time when Samsung was stumbling. They are idiots at Sony and that marketing 'boss' who renamed the Z4 has to be fired. Sony should rename the remaining Z3+ back to Z4 in whatever markets it hasen't yet been released.

On Tizen. Samsung has passed the 1 million unit sales level with the Z1, its only Tizen smartphone model sold only in two countries, India and Bangladesh, in six months. Strong indication that more Tizen models 'should' be coming but we've heard these rumblings before and I won't believe it until I see it haha. Tizen should be expanding to several big markets next such as Russia, China etc. One million smartphones in six months is a promising start for the new OS but it HAS to be expanded now and fast. One million in six months means globally still only one seventh of one percent. But haha, Blackberry sold globally only 1.1 million smartphones in three months so yeah.. Tizen may be soon claiming its first scalp.

Windows Phone rumors continue that Satya Nadella will shut down the Lumia unit or severely curtail it further. That day is near, so be prepared.

Huawei reports roaring sales wtth 50 million smartphones sold in the first 6 months of 2015, so if Android sales are up and Samsung is stumbling, one of the winners seems to be Huawei. And they also are pushing the limits of phabet size, introducing a 6.8 inch screen to a phablet.

So thats a quick view to recent developments.. More soon.

Comments

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

*I think the growth will be slower than usual in the following quarters.

Time will tell. :)

[Maggan]

Time IS telling.

[Winter]

Yotaphone says bye-bye to Android
https://www.yahoo.com/tech/s/yotaphone-says-bye-bye-android-161653714.html

[Maggan]

Or are they ... ?

http://pocketnow.com/2015/07/03/yotaphone-drops-android

http://www.androidcentral.com/yota-announces-switch-away-android-jollas-sailfish-os

/M

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

The Sailfish-story seems more like Russia not trusting US-manufactured OSes - and with NSA basicly pleading guilty about installing backdoors in every US-based OS, why should they think differently? It's common sense.

But yeah, this will at a first stage only apply to government organizations, not general public.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

Some more context:

"I think we're going to have to take the denial with a grain of salt. A reader that there's context to the story which is being missed because it's not being widely reported outside of Russia.

For one thing, the Russian govt wants to start using a mobile OS which is not controlled by an American company (for security reasons, obviously). They've chosen Sailfish, there's even a report that a Russian Minister held a Yotaphone running Sailfish. What's more, a Yota Devices rep has confirmed on a Russian forum that the firmware exists. They also said that it's not nearly ready to be shipped. (All this background suddenly explains why two different Russian news sites reported this story last week.)

In short, yes, there is a Sailfish firmware and it might one day be released for use by the Russian govt. But it almost certainly will not supplant Android on the consumer models. So the story going around is still 95% wrong."

http://the-digital-reader.com/2015/07/04/no-the-yotaphone-isnt-switching-from-android-to-jolla/

So, a grain of truth to it but unfortunately not what it looked like.

[charly]

But any app for the Russian market will be written for Android that is compatible with Sailfish. Which is also good news for Blackberry and Tizen (& IOS if it ever gets a Android emulator on Jailbroken devices)

[NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS]

Hi Tomi,

I am impressed you are always ahead of the curve.

http://www.baselinemag.com/news/slideshows/why-texting-is-becoming-a-key-business-tool.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BL_NL_BB_20150706_STR1L1&dni=258945583&rni=23383474

For the astroturfers remember: NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE

[abdul muis]

@Tomi

You're the man!!! You really predict removing the removable battery & SD-card will be a catastrophic for samsung.

Galaxy S5 beat S6 because of non-removable battery & no SD-card
http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/news/2015/05/samsung-galaxy-s6-ranks-lower-than-galaxy-s-5/index.htm

[NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS]

Hi again Tomi, As usual AGAIN (no surprise) you are ahead of the news.

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/209341-the-eternal-rumor-will-microsoft-dump-windows-mobile-and-go-for-android

For the astroturfers stop thinking "Tick-Toc" and start thinking "flush" but you'll probably need a plunger too for WP :-) ...more of the latest windows phone news can be found at:

http://news.softpedia.com/news/windows-phone-drops-to-2-29-percent-global-market-share-stats-show-486105.shtml

http://www.ubergizmo.com/2015/06/windows-phone-market-share-in-the-u-s-drops-significantly/

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/lumia-535-fails-boost-windows-phone-users-us-android-tops-smartphone-platform-usage-1509356

Ok astroturfers: say it with me, loudly ..NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE!

[Crun Kykd]

Further support for the idea Microsoft will shut down Lumia - it's pulling out of mapping. Any serious phone company tries to bolster its mapping, not reduce it. That's because mapping is considered a key phone feature, much like GPS or cameras. http://recode.net/2015/06/29/microsoft-to-stop-collecting-own-map-data-sells-part-of-business-to-uber/

[NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS]

Microsoft has much bigger fish to fry than than its (P)OS WP....

http://www.extremetech.com/computing/193469-windows-10-is-great-but-it-wont-stop-the-pc-from-dying-and-taking-microsoft-with-it

Now all the astroturfers stand, sway and repeat after me ...NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE! ....LoL

[SE-dude]

If nokia wants to be succesful with the Android system they better not use that M$ Crap of piece shitty SE bing, Instead they should probably use either Google or duckduckgo

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Wayne:

"So....what will adding the next 2 billion even poorer, vastly poorer people going to do to change the economic equation? Not a thing. Not a thing in the markets where Apple has it's base. Not in the US, Urban China, Japan, Euro5."

Ah, but here you are missing two things.

First, people that are poor may not remain poor. See, for example, people studying to become doctors and lawyers, after their 10 years of education you think they'll earn around 10k a year? Neither do I. Same thing with countries - African countries aren't poor because the population is dirt poor, they are poor because of armed conflicts, corruption and vast misuse of their natural resources.

Of course, what do you think these once-poor people will buy once they've used Android for a while? My bet is, they will stick with Android. :)

Second, you're missing the math here. 500M units out of 2000M is one fourth of the market. 500M out of 4000M is one eight. A developer looking at maximum market penetration for his App, will look at these numbers and say "Apple is 12.5% of the market. Do I have enough userbase to justify an Apple app, or do I give them a HTML5 App only?"

As for only focusing on "rich" countries, like I said; once the poor countries manages to stabilize and build an economy (5,10,20 years from now) they will stick with what they know, be that iPhone or Android.

So yes, Apple is currently busy at work killing off it's wool-producing sheeps since mutton fetches a really good price right now. Why that is a bad idea is an exercise best left to the reader. :D

[Egghead]

The poor, when they gain economic power, don't continue to eat ramen noodles and drive tuk tuk's. When they get money they buy things that people with money buy. That's why Apple is indeed doing well in the BRIC economies. The people in those economies with money buy Apple products. It's not like China is a mirror of the U.S. Or Japan. There are far more poor people, really poor...but those who do have money are a great market for Apple products.

Not everyone who has money, of course. It's not like every American buys an iPhone or a Mac. But enough that Apple does quite well even without selling the most units.

And not only are you imagining a world where the poor overcome war, lack,of education, poor resource management, corruption and everything else holding these people back....such that they become wealthy and continue to stick with the brands the identify with when they were in poverty. You must also project that the U.S., Japan, Urban China and the Euro5 trade places with the worlds poor nations. Losing all their own economic power such that Apple loses its existing customer base and FINALLY... there is no economy reason to support the Apple iOS platform.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Egghead:

Android phones are only slightly worse than iOS phones. It is a BMW to the Porsche, that is, close enough to actually compete, but not quite there. Only, Android is ALSO a Toyota (relatively inexpensive and gets you places but may lack things like AC), and platforms need market share to survive. :)

Also, third world countries doesn't have to kick richer countries to the curb in order to increase their standards of living. If you believe that you are quite delusional.

[chithanh]

@Wayne Brady
If you want to make apps in order to sell them, iOS is still the platform to go because the most affluent customers are there.
But we have all witnessed on this blog that this is not a sustainable business model. Even diehard Apple apologist John Gruber now thinks so.

http://daringfireball.net/linked/2015/06/30/the-love-era

But if you want to reach your customers with your app, then going Android first with its vastly bigger user base is a no-brainer. And yes, even poor users count here, despite your first-world centric comment trying to downplay them.

Your view can be forgiven however, seeing that big corporations like Microsoft think the same. After abandoning "first and best on Windows", they are now going iOS first. Which is understandable if you look at their home market, but of course that is going to hurt them globally.

Samsung tried to imitate Apple with the Galaxy S6 which further accelerated their downfall. Sales have been well below expectations. But the customers are going to other Android manufacturers, so all is well for Android.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/samsung-sees-seventh-straight-profit-decline-1436227146

And Samsung just keeps on digging further, after telling users that Galaxy S3 would get an update to Android 5, suddenly they don't feel bound by this statement any more and say that Android 4.4 will be the last version.

@Per "wertigon" Ekström
I think since Android 4.0 all major show-stoppers have been fixed and it was close enough to iOS for most users. Android 4.4 is already significantly ahead in many areas, and with 5.1 it is not even close any more.

[Catriona]

If we look into Samsung's situation further, we see that the main reason the S6 isn't selling as well as they hoped is not that they removed the SD card or waterproofing, but instead that they didn't make enough of the Edge variant, which is actually more expensive. They expected 1/3 of sales to be the Edge, and demand is closer to 1/2.

[Lullz]

@PWE

"As for only focusing on "rich" countries, like I said; once the poor countries manages to stabilize and build an economy (5,10,20 years from now) they will stick with what they know, be that iPhone or Android."

It was never proved they would stick with that. In the past people have been busy changing the OS and phone manufacturer.

[chithanh]

@Catriona
Whatever shortage there is of the S6 Edge (and I don't see any, it is readily available here) does not make up for the overproduction of the S6.