Some Notes From Smartpnone Wars, incl Samsung, Huawei, Olympus and Kantar latest numbers

A few comments relating to smartphones

 

Blackberry results came out last week. They managed to sell 1.1 million smartphones. Its still going down the Cliff, that is down from 1.6 million three months prior and Blackberry's market share is around 0.3%. And they are still making a loss. As I said the Passport form factor was not the solution.

Kantar has their latest numbers out. First off, Saamsung S6. Kantar told us that in the US market Samsung brand has made strong gains powered by the S6  That is definitely to be expected by any new flagsip by the world's largest phone brand but the alarming part... The older S5 is still outselling the S6 in the US market! That's a big ouch. And the US market is the one where the mistakes in the S6 design (no more microSD slot, no more removable battery and no more waterproofing) will have the least relevance, Samsung's customers in Africa, India, China etc will notice those deficiencies more than those in the USA and this sales pattern is likely worse in other markets. All consistent with the data that S6 is selling less rapidly than S5 or S4. Incidentially Kantar says in US market bestselling smartphone is S5, second bestselling is the iPhone and the S6 is only the third bestselling model...

So Kantar? We know how to read Kantar. You can't take their table comparing the last 3 months to the 3 months a year ago. There is far too much inaccuracy for global numbers using Kantar because they dont' survey much of the planet and even in China they only measure urban ie city markets. The way to read Kantar is as a 'leading indicator' of what this just-ended quarter (April-June) looks like compared to the previous quarter (January-March) for which we of course know the numbers. So by getting the '3 months ended March' data from Kantar's archive, and comparing that 3 month period to the latest data, we get very useful and usually quite reliable measures of what is going on.

By that methodology, and adjusting for population sizes and missing markets we do see rare uniformity in the Kantar numbers that Android is up in all regions vs Q1 and iOS is down in all. (Usually some markets re up, some are down). What does it look like? Looks like iPhone market share will be about 15% in Q2 ie about 50 million units of iPhones. iPhone down 2 points of market share from Q1 and Android up 2 points of market share. Meanwhile Windows Phone ie Lumia? Kantar numbers suggest they are again down and would be consistent with about 8 million total Lumia units in Q2 (although Microsoft might stop reporting Lumia sales after its latest restructuring, and if that happens, the results could be worse).

Then some other tidbits. Remember the funky Sony DSLR style accessory lenses from two years ago? Olympus has now launched a similar series to give you a DSLR style removable camera lens series for your cameraphone. Note these do not snap onto the existing camera of your phone, the Olympus lenses like the Sony lenses have their own camera sensor, and they only use your smartphone display as the viewfinder and as the remote control of the camera lens.

So on the Sony Xperia renaming mess. Can it possibly help the rebranded Xperia Z3+ that OTHER Xperia 4 models are now appearing? In Japan the Z3+ is sold as the Z4 so first off, the Z4 'exists'. Secondly, there is that Verizon Z4V in the US market which obviously now makes a mockery of the Z3+ branding elsewhere. But then the OTHER Xperia Z4 models? There's going to be a Z4 tablet and now the latest model is the Z4 Compact. All of these will ONLY FURTHER DAMAGE the sales of the renamded Z3+. And this happened at THE worst time when Samsung was stumbling. They are idiots at Sony and that marketing 'boss' who renamed the Z4 has to be fired. Sony should rename the remaining Z3+ back to Z4 in whatever markets it hasen't yet been released.

On Tizen. Samsung has passed the 1 million unit sales level with the Z1, its only Tizen smartphone model sold only in two countries, India and Bangladesh, in six months. Strong indication that more Tizen models 'should' be coming but we've heard these rumblings before and I won't believe it until I see it haha. Tizen should be expanding to several big markets next such as Russia, China etc. One million smartphones in six months is a promising start for the new OS but it HAS to be expanded now and fast. One million in six months means globally still only one seventh of one percent. But haha, Blackberry sold globally only 1.1 million smartphones in three months so yeah.. Tizen may be soon claiming its first scalp.

Windows Phone rumors continue that Satya Nadella will shut down the Lumia unit or severely curtail it further. That day is near, so be prepared.

Huawei reports roaring sales wtth 50 million smartphones sold in the first 6 months of 2015, so if Android sales are up and Samsung is stumbling, one of the winners seems to be Huawei. And they also are pushing the limits of phabet size, introducing a 6.8 inch screen to a phablet.

So thats a quick view to recent developments.. More soon.

Comments

[Lullz]

@Paul

"I would not put Android in the "US West Coast" box. Android is based on Linux which has actually been developed in Europe."

The Linux core is just a part of the Android OS. Also, Linux is based on some earlier work not really developed in Europe. Code was not really borrowed but ideas were. Now where does that put Linux in relation to some earlier operating systems?

You can think it this way. MeeGo and Android are both based on Linux but they are not the same operating system. This is not really relevant to the discussion about market shares and unit sales, but the past is past and what matters now is where the operating systems are developed today.

[chithanh]

The Linux kernel was Linus Torvald's original work when it was first published. It is not based on anything else. Of course it adhered to existing conventions and standards.

Some entities, notably SCO, have tried to challenge this idea in the past. Andrew S. Tanenbaum who wrote MINIX (Linus Torvald's computer ran MINIX when he wrote Linux) had this to say:

http://www.cs.vu.nl/~ast/brown/
http://www.cs.vu.nl/~ast/brown/followup/
http://www.cs.vu.nl/~ast/brown/rebuttal/

Linux often uses the FSF's GNU as userland, but not all distributions do and especially Android does not.

[Lullz]

@chithanh

Just as I said, Linux is at least partially based on some earlier work someone did in the past. I didn't claim it was based on Minix since this is obviously not true. It's almost impossible to find any new inventions that are not based on something else. Even the ARM based processors are based on some earlier ideas while thy do not share designs with those.

We can probably agree that Linux borrowed lots of ideas from the Unix world. Nothing wrong with that. We can probably also agree that Android and MeeGo are not the same OS even while based on Linux.

This is really not relevant to the discussion about unit sales and market shares, or is it?

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Lullz:

Your notion that noone can develop a decent OS except the people in Silicon Valley is both laughable and on par with the notion that Africans are so underdeveloped because they are dumber than white people. You're truly living in a fantasy bubble if you believe that.

Just because the computer revolution started in the US doesn't mean it will stay there, and China is more and more taking the lead and will surpass the US in a decade or so.

You had a lucky guess but your basic premise was wrong. The iPhone 6 isn't selling strong because Apple is a magical company producing unicorn-powered devices out it's ass - it's strong because three key factors happened to coincide in just the right moment: The big screen, the China launch and the Samsung stumble.

They won't have that this year, so therefore their sales will naturally be weaker this year. It's simple market mechanics in place.

[Lullz]

@PWE

"Your notion that noone can develop a decent OS except the people in Silicon Valley is both laughable"

You are putting words in my mouth. I have never said anything like that and of course operating systems can be developed anywhere. What I did say was that Android is currently developed outside Europe. If this is too much for you, I don't really know what to say.

"You had a lucky guess but your basic premise was wrong."

Nice. Before that you were saying how future will prove me wrong and when it actually prove me right you are calling it luck. How about admitting the facts. What I predicted happened and what you said was likely to happen did not happen. It's as simple as that.

"The iPhone 6 isn't selling strong because Apple is a magical company producing unicorn-powered devices out it's ass"

Of course not. That's something you made up. What I said in January was that Apple will see enough demand for reaching those goals. You said that there will most likely be not enough demand. You are the one making wishes and failing on predictions.

Let's not forget that.

"They won't have that this year, so therefore their sales will naturally be weaker this year. It's simple market mechanics in place."

Apparently you are still thinking that Apple will most likely lose market share 2015 compared to 2014? Is that right? I think Apple will gain market share this year. We can easily compare our guesses in early 2016 to see who was right and who was wrong.

Maybe you have a problem with that?

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Lullz:

Like I said before, it all depends on how good the iPhone is on curing cancer (substitute curing cancer for your own must-have feature that would make you buy an iPhone no matter what). :)

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

Correction: It all depends on how good the *next* iPhone is on curing cancer.

And yes, even IF Apple grows their market share this year, they have almost no hope of growing it next year. None.

[Winter]

@Lullz
"Even the ARM based processors are based on some earlier ideas while thy do not share designs with those."

ARM was based on a Britisch early PC, the Acorn. You find this in the name "Acorn Risc Machine". RISC machines were based on earlier theoretical work.

Linus programmed Linux according to the official, open, Posix standard for Unix like OS'. The same Posix Windows NT used to conform to (in theory).

[Winter]

@Lullz
"Also, Linux is based on some earlier work not really developed in Europe."

Unix was invented at Bell Labs, on the east coast of the US.
Last time I checked, Tanenbaum works in Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

If you want go back more, Alan Turing was Britisch, Von Neuman Hungarian, but he worked in the US, and Goedel was Czech.

[Lullz]

@PWE

"Like I said before, it all depends on how good the iPhone is on curing cancer"

Meaning that you say iPhone will probably lose market share this year. Yes or no?

"And yes, even IF Apple grows their market share this year, they have almost no hope of growing it next year. None."

Your opinion has been noted. I will give my take on iPhone market share in early 2016. However. Apple can gain market share next year.

[Lullz]

@Winter

You are posting details about something I said about ARM? Why?

""Also, Linux is based on some earlier work not really developed in Europe.""

Some earlier work not really developed in Europe. Some earlier work not really developed in US. Get the point?

[chithanh]

@Baron95
Linus himself does almost no Linux development any more, he mostly decides what goes into the kernel and what not.

Actual nationality of kernel contributors is often hidden behind company names, but a large part of development now happens in India and China.

If you look at Linux distributions and not just the kernel, typically there are more European developers than from all other regions combined:

http://www.perrier.eu.org/weblog/2013/07/27#devel-countries-201307

A similar pattern can be observed in almost all open source communities.

[Lullz]

@chithanh

"Linus himself does almost no Linux development any more, he mostly decides what goes into the kernel and what not."

Coding and decision making are two different matters. In the big picture decision making is much more important once the project has matured and gained momentum. Just check what happened with mobile phones. In the early days there used to be some hero coders but once time passed by there were less and less of those and most of the good calls and horrible mistakes were made in the management level.

What it comes to the operating systems, the decisions made regarding the Linux kernel matter but what matters most are the actual distributions.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Lullz:

I have given you my estimate. You can extrapolate from that to find out what Apple market share will be in Q4 2015, but no, I won't do your math for you.

[Lullz]

@PWE

"I have given you my estimate. You can extrapolate from that to find out what Apple market share will be in Q4 2015, but no, I won't do your math for you."

I don't know your estimate on the total smartphones sold. My estimate from January 2015 was 1500 Million. If you have the same estimate I have, you have apparently changed your mind about Apple losing market share in 2015.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Lullz: Apple can grow market share temporarily - but as the next year will show, it is only temporary.

And yes, they might actually grow their GMS this year, but it's not a sustainable growth, and Apple will have a really shitty next year. :)

It all depends on the unit numbers reported by Apple this quarter and stuff like that, but given previous results, expect around 55M this and next quarter, so 61 + 55 + 55 + 70 gives 241M units.

I think the hangover will come particularly hard this year for Apple however...

[Lullz]

@PWE

"And yes, they might actually grow their GMS this year, but it's not a sustainable growth, and Apple will have a really shitty next year."

Nice to hear that. You have changed your mind about 2015. What it comes to 2016, we will see about that at a later time. However it's a bold statement to say that Apple will lose market share next year. Almost as bold as you saying how they will most likely lose market share this year.

The future will tell who is right about this. We know how that turned out last time.

"It all depends on the unit numbers reported by Apple this quarter and stuff like that, but given previous results, expect around 55M this and next quarter, so 61 + 55 + 55 + 70 gives 241M units."

Interesting. You have changed your mind about Q4 and you are now predicting 70M instead of 77.5M.

Your estimates for Q2, Q3 and Q4 would give about 16% market share with 1500M smartphones sold in 2015. Nice to see how you were able change your mind in the early H2.

"I think the hangover will come particularly hard this year for Apple however..."

Why would 16% market share be hard for Apple?

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

As I explained earlier, it will be excruciatingly hard for Apple to grow their unit numbers for the next iteration of the iPhone, while it will sell very well it won't sell as well as the iPhone 6 did.

The reasons? Apple releasing the big screen while Samsung was stumbling *and* at the time they were enterinhig Chinese market created a perfect storm, making many potential customers "buy in" early. Thus many people whom normally *would* have waited for the iPhone 6 to become cheaper, bought it this time around.

This combined with a "weak" or "evolutionary" upgrade, will make many people skip iPhone 6S and instead buy the iPhone 7 when it's out. Oh don't get me wrong, plenty of people will buy the 6S. Just not enough to beat the 6 in market share. :)

Unless, of course, iPhone 6S cures cancer.

[Lullz]

@PWE

In short you had to change your mind about 2015. This happened after arguing with me for almost 6 months. There is no shame in that. As Tomi says, no one can be right all the time.

Let's see about 2016 in early 2016. It's bold to make forecasts this early but since the next iPhone has not yet been announced, I'm not going to make that kind of predictions.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

I'm not entirerly convinced yet about 2015 market share, but yes it is plausible for growth at this point. However I think the