Some Notes From Smartpnone Wars, incl Samsung, Huawei, Olympus and Kantar latest numbers

A few comments relating to smartphones

 

Blackberry results came out last week. They managed to sell 1.1 million smartphones. Its still going down the Cliff, that is down from 1.6 million three months prior and Blackberry's market share is around 0.3%. And they are still making a loss. As I said the Passport form factor was not the solution.

Kantar has their latest numbers out. First off, Saamsung S6. Kantar told us that in the US market Samsung brand has made strong gains powered by the S6  That is definitely to be expected by any new flagsip by the world's largest phone brand but the alarming part... The older S5 is still outselling the S6 in the US market! That's a big ouch. And the US market is the one where the mistakes in the S6 design (no more microSD slot, no more removable battery and no more waterproofing) will have the least relevance, Samsung's customers in Africa, India, China etc will notice those deficiencies more than those in the USA and this sales pattern is likely worse in other markets. All consistent with the data that S6 is selling less rapidly than S5 or S4. Incidentially Kantar says in US market bestselling smartphone is S5, second bestselling is the iPhone and the S6 is only the third bestselling model...

So Kantar? We know how to read Kantar. You can't take their table comparing the last 3 months to the 3 months a year ago. There is far too much inaccuracy for global numbers using Kantar because they dont' survey much of the planet and even in China they only measure urban ie city markets. The way to read Kantar is as a 'leading indicator' of what this just-ended quarter (April-June) looks like compared to the previous quarter (January-March) for which we of course know the numbers. So by getting the '3 months ended March' data from Kantar's archive, and comparing that 3 month period to the latest data, we get very useful and usually quite reliable measures of what is going on.

By that methodology, and adjusting for population sizes and missing markets we do see rare uniformity in the Kantar numbers that Android is up in all regions vs Q1 and iOS is down in all. (Usually some markets re up, some are down). What does it look like? Looks like iPhone market share will be about 15% in Q2 ie about 50 million units of iPhones. iPhone down 2 points of market share from Q1 and Android up 2 points of market share. Meanwhile Windows Phone ie Lumia? Kantar numbers suggest they are again down and would be consistent with about 8 million total Lumia units in Q2 (although Microsoft might stop reporting Lumia sales after its latest restructuring, and if that happens, the results could be worse).

Then some other tidbits. Remember the funky Sony DSLR style accessory lenses from two years ago? Olympus has now launched a similar series to give you a DSLR style removable camera lens series for your cameraphone. Note these do not snap onto the existing camera of your phone, the Olympus lenses like the Sony lenses have their own camera sensor, and they only use your smartphone display as the viewfinder and as the remote control of the camera lens.

So on the Sony Xperia renaming mess. Can it possibly help the rebranded Xperia Z3+ that OTHER Xperia 4 models are now appearing? In Japan the Z3+ is sold as the Z4 so first off, the Z4 'exists'. Secondly, there is that Verizon Z4V in the US market which obviously now makes a mockery of the Z3+ branding elsewhere. But then the OTHER Xperia Z4 models? There's going to be a Z4 tablet and now the latest model is the Z4 Compact. All of these will ONLY FURTHER DAMAGE the sales of the renamded Z3+. And this happened at THE worst time when Samsung was stumbling. They are idiots at Sony and that marketing 'boss' who renamed the Z4 has to be fired. Sony should rename the remaining Z3+ back to Z4 in whatever markets it hasen't yet been released.

On Tizen. Samsung has passed the 1 million unit sales level with the Z1, its only Tizen smartphone model sold only in two countries, India and Bangladesh, in six months. Strong indication that more Tizen models 'should' be coming but we've heard these rumblings before and I won't believe it until I see it haha. Tizen should be expanding to several big markets next such as Russia, China etc. One million smartphones in six months is a promising start for the new OS but it HAS to be expanded now and fast. One million in six months means globally still only one seventh of one percent. But haha, Blackberry sold globally only 1.1 million smartphones in three months so yeah.. Tizen may be soon claiming its first scalp.

Windows Phone rumors continue that Satya Nadella will shut down the Lumia unit or severely curtail it further. That day is near, so be prepared.

Huawei reports roaring sales wtth 50 million smartphones sold in the first 6 months of 2015, so if Android sales are up and Samsung is stumbling, one of the winners seems to be Huawei. And they also are pushing the limits of phabet size, introducing a 6.8 inch screen to a phablet.

So thats a quick view to recent developments.. More soon.

Comments

[RottenApple]

I see the Reality Disortion Field that envelops Apple is about to reach a new peak... :D
This is so utterly delusional that I see no point to comment any further.

[chithanh]

@Wayne Brady
If you think long-term and your goal is getting your phone platform into everybody's pocket, then 2 billion poor customers are of course something you want.

Even if they contribute only little to your profit today, they surely help you shape the world's mobile future. Plus, not all of them will remain poor.

Regarding your remarks about Android retreating from high end in the last year and half, I see no evidence of that. IDC tracks smartphone sales by price tier, and doesn't agree with you.
Only VERY recently, Chinese white-box phones which give you high-end specs at <$200 price have started impacting sales of expensive phones in some markets. But that's just customers opting for one Android device over another, not something Google needs to be concerned about.

[abdul muis]

talking about microsoft

I think microsoft/nadela should make a Android marketplace competitor for android. and PORT the directX to that Windows Store (for Android). So, microsoft can benefit (gain money) from people buying the directX (windows game) compatible apps on android.

[abdul muis]

@RottenApple

"I see the Reality Disortion Field that envelops Apple is about to reach a new peak... :D
This is so utterly delusional that I see no point to comment any further."

I already gave up commenting on this blog too.

[winter]

@Boron95
"Meanwhile all the other (non US-West Coast) platforms have either died or have less than 0.3% market share."

All mobile appliances are now fully produced in East-Asia. Also, the biggest and most advanced markets are there. The mobile industry is now truely an East Asian industry.

[abdul muis]

@chithanh

"Regarding your remarks about Android retreating from high end in the last year and half, I see no evidence of that. IDC tracks smartphone sales by price tier, and doesn't agree with you."

Only the iSheep want to believe Apple is 50% and more in premium
http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/article/11250/beating-rivals-samsung-smartphones-most-popular-us-southeast-asia

quote from above link
1. Samsung snatched the top position from Apple in the U.S. handset market during the period of March and May for the first time in a year or so.
2. The Korean tech giant was unseated by Apple in April of this year to become the second-largest smartphone vendor in the U.S., but the new Galaxy S6, which was released in late April, helped Samsung reclaim the top spot in May.
3. Nevertheless, an increase in smartphone sales in May following the launch of the Galaxy S6 in late April helped Samsung oust Apple to become the number one smartphone manufacturer in the U.S.

[winter]

@abdul muis
"I think microsoft/nadela should make a Android marketplace competitor for android. and PORT the directX to that Windows Store (for Android)."

DirectX on a linux kernel? That would be "odd".

[abdul muis]

@winter

why not?
it's the only way that the 'old' windows game can be easily ported. and microsot could gain money (30%) from that.

or microsoft could let steam do it for them (porting the directX) for android and let steam got the income... after all, steam already have already done it for linux.

[Lullz]

@RottenApple

This is not the first time when you end the discussion like that when you figured out how wrong you were.

Definitely not unusual for fanboys like you.

[RottenApple]

@Lullz:

It's you who is the fanboy - the one who unquestionably believes in magic.
But what's here to discuss? I do not believe in magic while all the Apple supporters appear to do so.

[Lullz]

@Baron95

"1 - Apple will be the only premium differentiated mobile phone in the market. They will capitalize on music, watch, fitness, content, premium buying and support experience. Apple is the phone for the top 20% of income earners in the world."

Unlikely in the next few years. Samsung will most likely have models considered premium. It doesn't matter if all the phones made by Samsung are not premium. On the other hand it's probable that Apple will soon start gaining market share in a slightly lower price point when 5S will be the cheapest model and iPhone 6 will be sold for less than it's sold today.

It's actually unusual to see the last year's iPhone holding up this well against the flagships from other manufacturers. This implies that iPhone 6 will be doing very well once the price comes down. Better than 5S has been doing since iPhone 6 was launched.

[winter]

@abdul muis
"after all, steam already have already done it for linux."

I looked away and moore's law hit again.

[Lullz]

@RottenApple

"It's you who is the fanboy - the one who unquestionably believes in magic."

It's you who ended using logic and resorted on calling other people names. That obviously makes you someone who is not interested about discussion but only about making something looking bad. Usually very characteristic for someone who is driven by emotion and possibly anger against some product.

[abdul muis]

@winter

why not?
think tablet....
think 3-5 years old game (not really CPU/GPU demanding)
think current game but simplified in CPU/GPU usage

with DirectX for android, the Windows game developer can port their game as easy as ABC (LOL, I mean easier)

[RottenApple]

What Direct3d?
9, 10 or 11?

All 3 are mutually incompatible.
All 3 are also kind a bit of bloatware. There's a reason why most phones only have OpenGL ES and not full OpenGL.

[chithanh]

In the Netherlands, the courts decided that the currently practised carrier subsidy model is illegal and must be subject to the same rules as bank loans (ie. transparency, check of income and prior debts).

http://www.osnews.com/comments/28668

Of course, the mobile industry is up in arms against this, because this means they can no longer hide the true price of high-end phones in opaque contracts, or sell them to people who will have difficulties paying the monthly rates.

I hope that other countries will follow suit.

@Lullz
No, RottenApple was not attacking you, he was just attacking your arguments. In contrast, you are attacking him personally.

[Lullz]

@chithanh

"No, RottenApple was not attacking you, he was just attacking your arguments. In contrast, you are attacking him personally."

Of course he is making personal attacks. Here is an example of what he has said if you forgot about that. It's really sad to see people switching from arguments to talking about rd fields and magic. There was really no need to do that. If he had valid points, he could have continued on making those or simply commented how we have different views and ended the discussion there. No need to do that with calling people iSomething.

In a way he is acting like he would certainly hold the key to the absolute truth and become hurt when someone else disagrees.

The example follows.

I see the Reality Disortion Field that envelops Apple is about to reach a new peak... :D
This is so utterly delusional that I see no point to comment any further.

Posted by: RottenApple | July 02, 2015 at 06:10 PM

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Lullz:

Telling you that your arguments are so utterly delusional that there is no point arguing further, is simply stating a fact. It's not name calling - it's pointing out that so far you've been ignoring every warning sign shown, waving it away as "Not going to happen to my darling company Apple!"

So... Yeah. You are living in the pipe dream, and reality will show how wrong you are. :)

[Lullz]

@PWE

Let's pick an example. In January I was saying how it looked like Apple is going to gain market share (12 months vs. 12 months) once we have the numbers for Q1 or Q2 2015. The Android fanboys almost crucified me for saying that. I was called iSomething and iWhatever for making observations about that.

Today it looks like Apple is gaining market share 12vs12 and those people keep blaming be for unrealistic expectations.

"So... Yeah. You are living in the pipe dream, and reality will show how wrong you are. :)"

Obviously it wasn't me who was living in a dream.

[Paul]

@Tomi

It looks like your prediction about iWatch will become sooner than later true, according to Forbes: Apple Watch Sales Aren't Looking So Hot http://www.forbes.com/sites/aarontilley/2015/07/01/apple-watch-sales-arent-looking-so-hot/

@Boron95

You wrote "Meanwhile all the other (non US-West Coast) platforms have either died or have less than 0.3% market share". I would not put Android in the "US West Coast" box. Android is based on Linux which has actually been developed in Europe.