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May 25, 2015

Comments

Maggan

The same IDC that Tomi use as one pillar when reporting on market share. So are we now distrusting IDC? Then Tomi should exclude them from his analysis.

Or are we to only exclude them if they report positive numbers for Apple? And include them when they report good numbers for Apple competitors?

abdul muis

@Maggan

Good point.

1. Kantar only track URBAN CHINA, not the whole china. Even the link given by egg head say so "Chinese-New-Year-brings-a-new-record-for-iOS-sales-in-urban-China"

2. IDC didn't say what it tracks, Tomi use it's number, but say many times their prediction is off by a lot.

3. Strategic Analytic say Apple is number 2, NOT BARELY NUMBER 1. number 2 IS NOT barely. If apple sold MORE phone than xiaomi, perhaps by 10 or 100. It is called barely. But if it sale less, it's NOT barely!!!

So, MAYBE apple is number 1.... MAYBE!!!


Winter

@Maggan
"The same IDC that Tomi use as one pillar when reporting on market share. "

I do distinguish between IDC hard numbers and IDC predictions. Their predictions in mobile seem to be "unattested" (wishful thinking?).

For the data on China, I think you must look very carefully at the sampling. China is a very big country with unique logistic problems.

Which is not to say that Apple might have a bumper quarter(s) there.

Tomi T Ahonen

To all

About IDC. They're a good solid research house and generally trustworthy on their handset numbers for what is. As to forecasts, nobody is always right, on smartphones IDC has been on the better side than most. I mostly do not discuss forecasts on this blog except for my own, because often a forecast is created to sell a story or report and even the researcher organization is not highly confident in that forecast. So its "anybody's guess". Thats why essentially all numbers I quote from anyone else on this blog are reported current numbers, not forecasts of what might be coming. With that, clearly IDC has been toning down their enthusiasm about Windows smartphones MASSIVELY from what they thought a couple of years ago. 3% I think is a plausible number for 2015 so I wouldn't fault them for that forecast now. Some of their previous forecasts about Windows smartphones were pretty hilariously wild..

(and the fake Tomi is still posting random silliness, just ignore him. But for the next few days/weeks just take anything posted in my name as 'preliminary' and see if it sticks. If its gone in a day, it was the fake..)

(ps if I could be bothered, it could be an intersting case study to see what things are getting under his/her skin, based on what he/she posts in my name haha, except I really can't be bothered to read his comments, I just delete them.)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Catriona

@Tomi, nothing in the WSJ excerpt suggests that RIM's sales started declining from 2008-2010, and a simple graph shows that sales were increasing until 2010. However, that might well explain why Balsillie thought "they'd be fine." In 2008 RIM was riding high, and got some free publicity because it was Obama's phone of choice (and still is, for security reasons). Given how North American-centric RIM's sales were, it's entirely possible that the book gives good insight into the company's downfall. The Storm was indeed a disaster, and it does not surprise me at all that they would have rushed it out the door at Verizon's request. Verizon was one of the early backers of Android, and were taking a throw-it-to-the-wall-and-see-what-sticks approach back then. But Apple's exclusivity with AT&T, along with inertia from the enterprise support kept them growing. By 2011 there were several factors working against RIM. First, Android was credible by then. Second, AT&T's exclusivity ran out and iPhone became available on Verizon (and I believe more of the Canadian carriers, as well). Third, and perhaps most importantly, BYOD policies were becoming more common (and I think if you look back, you'll see that it was the iPhone that started that trend). The only reason lots of people had BlackBerrys is that their employers required them to have them. Once iOS and Android added credible enterprise e-mail support and BYOD became possible, they didn't really stand a chance. Perhaps earlier on they could have partnered with Google or taken consumers more seriously.

Anyway, the excerpt was also "condensed and adapted" from the book, so it's possible an uninformed writer at the WSJ inserted the text about RIM being the largest in the world (it was the largest in the U.S. and obviously Canada at the time).

Maggan

Sigh

baron99

About the fake Tomi poster (I was spoofed too) ....it is what I would expect with microsoft astroturfer dirty tricks, IMHO :-)

Remember: NO ONE WANST WINDOWS ON A PHONE! ...maybe if I say that more it will smoke"em out ....LoL!

coldspring21

So how can apple keep selling iphone 6/6s/7/7s/8/8s which cost $900 or more to average chinese who's income may not break fraction of american average income? Poor chinese may be willing to plop down life savings for one iphone, but keep buying one every year or two? Sounds like a hard sale. Besides big screen in iphone 6/6plus, what new feature will next interation of iphone have to entice not so wealthy people to upgrade?

Spawn

@R
> the near fut
of Tizen:
> http://what.thedailywtf.com/t/enlightened/8795/21

I can confirm that Tizen's native API using EFL is horror to deal with / close to garbage.

@chithanh

> For Symbian, the way out was going to be Qt apps written in standard C++.

Exactly. Qt 4.6 was shipped on the Symbian N8 and Pureview already. Compiling apps for Symbian and N9 MeeGo was working well. So, Nokia had its #1 mobile-OS (Symbian) to next #1 (MeeGo). Whats about Samsung's #1 (Android) to next #1 (Tizen)? story? Both are incompatible, there is no upgrade-path, there is no plan?

Gonzalo

Gartner reported on Wednesday. Samsung sold 81.1 million smartphones in the quarter, that's 4.4 million LESS than the same period a year ago.

Meanwhile, Apple's iPhone scored 60.2 million sales during the first quarter. During the same period in 2014, Apple sold 43 million iPhone sales. umm that's 17 million MORE


Apple is doomed, next quarter they are dead .... market share is the only metric that matters ... Do you guys remember who said a more or less a year ago that Apple will die in the next 2 quarters ... seriously ... it begins with A -)

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Gonzalo:

You are aware that in the Android ecosystem it doesn't really matter if top Android manufacturer go back, since Android in general is more than one manufacturer yes?

iOS on the other hand only have one manufacturer. The odds are therefore stacked against Apple.

Apple could succeed but at this point it is a fight of Aragorns 10 000 humans vs the 100 000 Orcs of Sauron :-)

Lullz

@Spawn

"Exactly. Qt 4.6 was shipped on the Symbian N8 and Pureview already. Compiling apps for Symbian and N9 MeeGo was working well. So, Nokia had its #1 mobile-OS (Symbian) to next #1 (MeeGo). Whats about Samsung's #1 (Android) to next #1 (Tizen)? story? Both are incompatible, there is no upgrade-path, there is no plan?"

Not that well really. There were too few Qt titles released before Nokia decided to end Symbian and MeeGo. Too few compared to the Android titles. It's also questionable if the Symbian implementation of Qt was fully functioning and bug free. With bugs on the Qt implementation it's considerably harder to release quality titles for both platforms.

Lullz

@PWE

It may be hard for you to understand but today it looks like Apple is gaining market share. That's a very good sign for Apple.

Winter

@Lullz

One swallow does not a summer make

chithanh

@Gonzalo
> Apple is doomed, next quarter they are dead
Strawman argument. Nobody says such a thing. It is only imagination in the puny minds of Apple fanboys.
However, Apple are rapidly approaching Microsoft when it comes to their relevance to the future of mobile computing.

@Lullz
We have direct confirmation from commenters on this blog who work in the industry, that they were developing Qt apps when Elop canned MeeGo. Needless to say, this decision did not go well with their companies.

Lullz

@Winter

"One swallow does not a summer make"

Gaining market share is gaining market share. It's a very good sign no matter what.

Lullz

@chithanh

"We have direct confirmation from commenters on this blog who work in the industry, that they were developing Qt apps when Elop canned MeeGo. Needless to say, this decision did not go well with their companies."

We also know that they were not shipping those apps. It doesn't matter if apps are developed if they are not shipped and phones like N8 didn't have that many Qt apps on the launch. What matters is the number of apps available, not the number of apps possibly developed.

Winter

@Lullz
"Gaining market share is gaining market share. It's a very good sign no matter what."

And a swallow is a swallow, also a good sign.

Still, one swallow does not a summer make and one quarter of increased market share is not a market turnaround.

Lullz

@Winter

"Still, one swallow does not a summer make and one quarter of increased market share is not a market turnaround."

I'm not talking about one quarter. Apple has been gaining market share in the last 12 months compared to the previous 12 months. This is how Apple should be measured. Please forget comparing single quarters.

Apple gaining market share in the last 12 months is definitely a good sign.

RottenApple

@Winter:

"We have direct confirmation from commenters on this blog who work in the industry, that they were developing Qt apps when Elop canned MeeGo. Needless to say, this decision did not go well with their companies."


Precisely that.

@Lullz:

Your argument does not make sense.

What do you think is the average development time for one app? Do you really believe that right after Qt on Nokia became a thing the apps were there in a heartbeat?
Quite the contrary in fact! First there needs to be some decision making whether it's worthwile to support the platform, then decisions need to be made which titles to support, then developer resources need to be assigned and only then actual development can start. My guess is that for most devs this was to the end of 2010.

But the point is - this was a platform with significant market share in key markets so it was impossible to ignore, once it became feasible to develop software for it.

And then, a few months later, when the products were well in development it all got trashed. You can believe me, at my former employer there were some people who would have liked to see Elop's and Ballmer's heads roll. And make no mistake: Those who got burned once by Microsoft were ultra-careful to commit to a platform like Windows Phone which not only had no market share but also a completely alien development environment with no compatibility whatsoever. The Nokia fiasco was a direct contributor to the failure of Windows Phone.


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