My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« It was the Best of Data, it was the Worst of Data - Mobile Marketing use of Big Data: analysis using case study of 2012 Obama-Romney election | Main | Dumbest Move in Smartphone Marketing This Year - Sony Rebrands Xperia Z4 Into Something Less »

May 25, 2015

Comments

Tomi T Ahonen

Piot -

gosh that fake Tomi is tiresome. Don't worry Piot you are fine, no warnings. That was Fake Tomi. Go on, you're doing just fine

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Now to all

(but especially Maggan and Piot)

So, what is wrong with this picture. Apple official numbers from 2013 to 2014. iPhone sales grew from 153.4M to 192.7M units. That is annual growth. That is growth rate of 25.6%. The industry in the same period grew from 990M to 1295M ie 31% so iPhone was growing yes, but growing more slowly than the industry. iPhone was growing, but growing more slowly than the industry. Thus iPhone market share fell from 15.5% to 14.9%. This is the reality of what happened at Apple. This is fair honest analysis of 'reality'.

Now SAME official Apple results, but looking only at one quarter, the just-ended Q4 of 2014, and comparing it to 'the same quarter 12 months ago' ie Q4 of 2013 suggests a growth rate of 46.1% !!!!! Q4 of 2013 iPhones sold 51.0M units and Q4 of 2014 iPhones sold 74.5M units. That is mathematically growth of 46.1%. It is 'true' in a statistical sense that Q4 of 2014 is 46% better than Q4 one year prior. BUT WE KNOW THIS IS NOT WHAT HAPPENED AT APPLE. It did NOT GROW 46%. We just SAW what the real growth was, it was half that, 25.6% !!! but what was the silly press reporting all over the world, Apple is now the biggest smartphone maker and growing at 46% per year WHEN IT CLEARLY WAS NOT.

The quarterly pattern has MASSIVE swings in numbers. Now take Q2 (April-June) quarter, same years. In 2013, in Q3 Apple sold 31.2M iPhones. A year later, same quarter, Q2 of 2014, Apple sold 35.2M iPhones. That is growth rate of ONLY 12.8% - which is HALF of the reality!!!! Do you see now, why I say you cannot ANALYZE the Apple performance if you only look at ONE QUARTER of data. Because Apple has a vastly undulating cycle of huge peaks and massive valleys, the only valid way to ANALYZE iPhone performance is by looking at the last 12 months, for ANY period that is compared to another. And the nice thing is, 12 month moving average can be used to the previous quarter not just 12 months ago. Now lets see how that measure works in these two periods.

First lets take the 'great' quarter. In Q4, last 12 months ending December 2014 Apple sold 192.7M. The previous 12 months (ending December 2013) Apple sold 153.4M iPhones. the growth rate is yes, 25.6% which is exactly correct.

Now lets see the 'horrible' quarter. In Q2 of 2014, the previous 12 months ending June 2014 Apple sold 163.7M iPhones. The PREVIOUS 12 months, ending Q2 ie June of 2013 Apple sold 143.3M iPhones. What is the growth rate? 14.3%. Do you see now, why comparing quarter to quarter gives eitehr ridiculously optimistic or ridiculously pessimistic results?

Now, this blog is not an iPhone blog and this blog is not an Apple blog. They might be expected to do the math every quarter just for Apple, to explain to readers, no Apple did not grow 46% (in a great quarter) or only 12% (in a bad quarter). Because of the unique launch pattern, Apple has to be evaluated on a 12 month moving average basis. So for you two, and because this thread is over 200 messages long so clearly there is plenty of interest, let me do that calculation for you here. Please appreciate it, I am not gonna do this every quarter (it gets done automatically once per year, which should be enough) but this is how it should be done. Last approx two years:

PERIOD . . . . . . . . . iPhones M . . Market M . . iPhone Mkt Share . . Samsung M . . Samsung Mkt Shr
12 mo ending Dec 2012 . . 135.8M . . . 691.4M . . . 19.6% . . . . . . . . 215.0M . . . 31.1%
12 mo ending Mar 2013 . . 138.1M . . . 757.4M . . . 18.2% . . . . . . . . 239.5M . . . 31.6%
12 mo ending Jun 2013 . . 143.3M . . . 837.1M . . . 17.1% . . . . . . . . 263.3M . . . 31.5%
12 mo ending Sep 2013 . . 150.2M . . . 917.2M . . . 16.4% . . . . . . . . 291.2M . . . 31.7%
12 mo ending Dec 2013 . . 153.4M . . . 990.0M . . . 15.5% . . . . . . . . 311.4M . . . 31.5%
12 mo ending Mar 2014 . . 159.7M . . . 1.06B . . . 15.1% . . . . . . . . 329.2M . . . 31.1%
12 mo ending Jun 2014 . . 163.7M . . . 1.12B . . . 14.6% . . . . . . . . 329.1M . . . 29.4%
12 mo ending Sep 2014 . . 169.2M . . . 1.18B . . . 14.3% . . . . . . . . 323.5M . . . 27.3%
12 mo ending Dec 2014 . . 192.7M . . . 1.29B . . . 14.9% . . . . . . . . 314.2M . . . 24.3%
12 mo ending Mar 2015 . . 210.1M . . . 1.33B . . . 15.8% . . . . . . . . 310.2M . . . 23.3%

There you are. This is manual calculation and manual typing, there might be a random typo, please double-check with Apple numbers and my past blog postings for the numbers. But can you see Maggan and Piot. There was NEVER a 46% surge in iPhone market share. Never. there was never a 12% collapse of iPhone market share. It can be seen, that now the phablet iPhone 6Plus has contributed to - 0.7% gain in market share. Not one point of share. Seven TENTHS of one percent. Less than one percent gain in market share. This is how you analyze Apple. And for comparision Samsung next to it..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

(sorry my battery ran out, had to run to the hotel and plug in recharger..)

so lets look at the numbers. This is the CORRECT way to analyze Apple and only Apple. All other brands CAN be analyzed also quarter vs previous quarter, and quarter vs same quarter 12 months ago. Not Apple. The iPhone MUST be analyzed with 12 month moving average else you get TOTAL NONSENSE as if iPhone is growing 46% when it clearly NEVER was.

So lets dig in. First see the clear, gradual, UNINTERRUPTED decline in iPhone market share. Steady decline from December 2012 to September 2014. From 19.6% to 14.3% market share. This is the value of this method. No bullshit the numbers do not lie. Apple was bleeding market share which is why they had to launch the phablets. We also see IMMEDIATELY and ACCURATELY the effect of the phablets. In Q4 of 2014, with the iPhone 6Plus we get a jump in market share from 14.3% to 14.9%. Nice. And that jumped further to the just-ended Q1 of 2015 when iPhone market share is 15.8% for the last 12 months. But this is still the peak and we will now AUTOMATICALLY get the bad quarters and the decline in share, which leads me to be very confident, this boost was not enough, and iPhone market share full year 2015 will be down from full year 2014.

But you do not believe me. So lets now use this 12 month moving average to the SAME 12 months, prior to the phablets. So the current market share is 15.8% (last 12 months ending March). Now compare one year ago at this time, THOSE 12 months ending March 2014. What is the market share? 15.1%. So the phalets, iPhone 6Plus etc have only helped Apple to a boost so far of 0.7%. Less than one point of market share. That was the boost stage, it has now passed. Now its decline again. That is not good enough to give Apple an annual growth. The only thing that Apple can do, is to have another monster Q4 period in 2015 and the only thing left to do, is now to introduce THREE new phones, including a discount-price iPhone 6C which is rumored to be coming. If they expand their product offering, that might just end the decline temporarily, and iPhone might have a plateau, before the decline in market share again continues. But we won't know, until we see the Autumn iPhone releases - and their prices.

Piot and Maggan. The above table IS REALITY at Apple. Trust me, their management NEVER once thought iPhone was growing 46% per year. They are SMART people they KNOW their FACTORIES only grew 25%, their REVENUES only grew 25% their PROFITS only grew 25%. That 46% bogus story is TO FOOL INVESTORS, it is silly Apple distortion field nonsense that has NO RELATIONSHIP with reality. NONE WHATSOVER. Do the math, the iPhone has NEVER grown 46% in this period. NEVER. But that was very 'favorable' misunderestanding that Apple happily fed to the Wall Street idiots reporting on Apple performance who don't understand the mobile industry.

I am not a Wall Street analyst (anymore). I am not an Apple expert. I am sure most of those writers are competent analysts of financial performance metrics, and of IT industry performance. But the USA is the laggard in mobile, the Wall Street analysts are CLUELESS about mobile and their writing is moronic. I give the FACTS here on this blog do what you want with it, but obviously I forbid silly discussions about which shares to buy next haha...

Now, Piot and Maggan. Does this explain how and why. Does this show you why 46% is a lie. A blatant, misleading nonsense that serves no value to anyone? And does this help you see how 'big' or not was the 'surge' of the phablets and that its quite possible, that once again, I will turn out the most accurate forecaster in mobile and about iPhones... I am here to help you. I hope the above table now sets this issue to rest. And one more statistical note, if you use 12 month moving average to evaluate one competitor in market share - in that case ALL rivals should be evaluated using THAT method too. I did only Samsung here for you, but now, you cannot use 12 month moving average for one brand and latest quarter for another brand... and again, I won't waste my time doing this - because only Apple 'needs' this, because most of the industry - where the majority of phones are - can be done in the 'normal' way and I am CERTAIN Apple will eventually abandon this bizarre once-per-year launch cycle.

Interested in your commments esp Maggan and Piot

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Maggan

@Tomi

Well, I don't see many credible sources claim that YOY quarter growth is total year growth. When I read it it is usually accompanied by other qualifiers, such as trend lines, a look at neighbouring quarters, and stuff like that. Like Horace Dedieu does it, for example.

Sure, if someone if claiming YOY quarterly growth equals full year over year growth, they are wrong. That is so obvious I didn't think anyone was claiming that yearly quarter comparisons was the same as full year comparisons.

I guess it's the tech press that get you all riled up. I don't count them as credible sources, they've been crying first victory, then doom, then victory, then doom, then victory and so on, for Apple for so long that I've grown tired of them.

Apple for example is very careful to point out that the growth they are touting is YOY quarterly comparisons. If they didn't, then the feds would be on them faster than Tim Cook can say "customer sat".

For me, I think any numbers are valid for understanding the trends. YOY quarters, year to year, quarter to quarter, market share growth, unit growth, app downloads ... everything is of interest as long as it is set in a context.

As an example, I do think it is interesting to see that Apple sold more phones last christmas quarter than the christmas quarter before and the christmas quarter before that and so on, but I must also look at the other quarters surrounding that to chart a growth/shrinking trend line.

And as you know, I'm hanging my hat on the total phones market share. :-)

Maggan

@Tomi

By the way, thank you for taking your time to explain. Much appreciated.

Tomi T Ahonen

Now lets do some more replies..

Lullz - you asked for estimate of current Apple quarter. When you wrote it I had no data to make any prediction but now that we've seen Kantar numbers, I would say 49M is close to the mark for April-June Quarter iPhone sales. That would be about 14% market share.

Winter & Lullz - obviously see above about Apple 12 month moving average numbers and analysis. I think you Winter knew this... And Lullz, yeah always need 12 month for Apple, but you can use ANY period as long as its previous 12 months, so look at the above table, you can compare one quarter to the immediately previous quarter too, as long as both are 12 month moving average measures. So we can see the surge in iPhone 6Plus and the real size of that surge. So just little clarification, I think you may have misunderstood what I wrote before, the 12 month moving average is not limited to 'only comparing to the year before' haha, it can be compared to the quarter before or even the MONTH before if the company releases monthly data like say TCL-Alcatel does for its smartphone sales.

TDC - those who refuse to learn from the past are destined to repeat mistakes of the past...

Per - good points about exactly that, haha, history. Which is why I often refer to historical viewpoints to try to shed light to this rapidly evolving industry - whenever i find a suitable analogy. As to iPhone and 20% - will never happen. By 2020 all new phones sold will be smartphones, so about 2.2B smartphones sold per year. If Apple manages to sell 220M units it is 10%. There is no way Apple sells 440M iPhones. To get there, they would have to abandon the premium/luxury pricing concepts and go low price mainstream into the dirt and slash their profit margins and suddenly make the iPhone seem pedestrian and not exclusive, all helping crash their appeal. Apple tried this once, in the Mac vs PC wars and that brought Apple to the brink of bankruptcy. What Steve Jobs taught Apple was to never make that mistake again and to always pursue the premium end of the product line. That will never support 20% of global handset sales. Never. Might Apple have 12% or 13%, maybe if they're really lucky. It might as well be 8% by 2020. But 20% never.

Piot - the reality of 10% actual market share globally, when Android will be over 80% and likely over 85% will be a crushing blow to iOS developers many who think that because iPhone has 35% of US market that will soon also be their global share. Some developers live in that fantasy and will crash and burn. Others are slowly discovering the reality that their Android versions far outperform the iOS versions. When the truth comes through that they are not near equals, but iOS is a niche and Android rules, then the ecosystem fantasy will end. That means most apps will not be developed for iOS, only for Android. THAT is why 20% matters. If its 20% iPhone and 70% Android and 10% others, then yes, Apple developers can think iPhone has a chance to do 'an Xbox' some day, and its worth doing it. But if iOS falls to 10% they see its 'another Mac' and most developers will shift to Android-only. Its inevitable math. Why these numbers, because of the HISTORY of the Mac... Apple developers know how useless is a 10% share.

John F - no, you don't have to be objective to contribute to a discussion. In fact good debate comes out of clearly differing positions - where professional argument (most paid pro debaters are trial attorneys) are by rules forced to take opposing sides. Even if a defense lawyer KNOWS his client is guilty, the system requires the attorney to use his/her best skills to try to defend the client..

That being said, its good to see which of our members have a clear stated position. Some make it very clear even in their nicknames haha, and I make my positions about Microsoft very clear haha.

Lullz - on installed base market share for Apple at 20% is a historical anomaly too, it will come down. But for that you have to do long-term handset use cycles. Why is Apple so high, because Symbian and Blackberry disappeared, both which had longer-than-normal use. This is a temporary situation and iOS will eventually come down in installed base to near its long-term sales levels, but a bit above it. So maybe if sales is 10% then installed base settles to about 12% or so. From say 2022. Problem with installed base on very old iPhones still in the market, they tend not to be used as new phones, so they won't get the app downloads and 3G/4G network contracts and data loads. They are more given as toys to kids often without cellular connections etc or to say parents and grandparents who then won't do the 'normal' iPhone use patterns we see from 'normal' new iPhone buyers.

zlutor - good point about Tizen as proxy of what could have been for MeeGo at Nokia. Totally true. We'll see. Note that whatever Samsung does with Tizen now in 2015, out of smartphone market share of 25%, alone as the only brand to launch on Tizen (for now). Nokia would have done better in 2011 with MeeGo when Nokia had 29% market share and MeeGo would have launched into a world without Firefoxes and Sailfishes etc and several other manufacturers had already introduced MeeGo devices in Asia such as Fujitsu etc.

Per - good point about who gains from Samsung stumbles. Right now that is no (longer) Apple it is the other Android guys, Huawei, LG, Lenovo, Xiaomi, HTC etc.

Baron95 - haha tic-toc, tic-toc and Kantar numbers tell the total global decline of Windows Phone OS in all markets this current period vs Q1. That 700K gap to the Top 10, will be BIGGER in Q2 than it was in Q1... sorry, your fave Lumia is not rejoining Top 10 anytime soon. I give bigger chances to Sony even with that Z4 rebranding fiasco going on right now.

Baron95 - hey... for every car maker you list, I can list ten that died. For every computer company I can list 20 that died haha... the point Tester makes is valid standard business theory, a diversified company is more safe than a single-product company. It is not a GUARANTEE that one type survives and the other fails but it means Apple is FAR MORE vulnerable than Samsung. If Apple has a Motorola Razr collapse momment, where suddenly the iPhone is seen as outdated and undesirable - Apple would go the way of the Blackberry. That being said, I think Apple is also the SAFEST company to remain ridiculously profitable because they have worked so hard on being the most desirable, the easist-to-use smartphone with the highest (or occasionally briefly only second highest) loyalty. They are pretty safe ... for now. But vulnerable. For sure. More so than Samsung because Sammy is widely diversified from computer chips to flatscreen TVs.

Maggan - on Tizen (I feel I wrote this already, but a few of my comments were interrupted when attempting to post at the airport and didn't post). Yeah, me too. I love competition and 3 viable ecosystems would be FAR better than two. If Tizen gets to 10% share, other manufacturers will join. Tizen could get to 20% 25% type of size in say mid 2020s decade but Android is likely to always be biggest. The good thing is that Tizen has a bunch of equipment makers at least technically alligned to it vs Apple who won't licence iOS and now that Blackberry is essentially dead, nobody anymore cares to bother to launch on BB OS. But 4 viable ecosystems would be even better for the industry. Me, personally, most of all I would love to see Tizen because so many 'small guys' put their latest best efforts into it, including Intel who got burned so many times in the past trying to get into mobile. And if NTT DoCoMo could be convinced to shift to Tizen once again (as was the original plan) then Tizen could be also a platform for 'magical' tech. But Samsung burned those bridges rather badly with the first iteration of Tizen. Still, this would be my fave scenario. Then over time, put South Korean giant Samsung resources - and South Korean competitiveness, and 'fast following' principles vs Android 'smartest brains on the planet' driving Android on hyperspeed of OS updates, and toss in iOS with 'best user experience' but minimalist late-follower philosophy, and we could theoretically have a perfect competition triangle. Price leader (Tizen) vs Innovation leader (Android) vs customer satisfaction leader (iOS)... would love to see that.

(ok more comments coming)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

More comments

Catriona - on Blackberry your later comment.. fine this is closer to how I see it too. Those are valid points you raise and we both agree the tablet was a fiasco and I take it you agree, resources poured into developing the tablet and marketing it, and then attempting to push it to the market where its distribution is totally different from handsets, all took precious resources away from Blackberry smartphones which saw then delays and lack of marketing support exactly when Android was exploding. But yeah, roughly we agree, maybe with emphasis slightly in different areas.

Blackberry also said very openly they had no clue why they were the bestselling smartphone in markets such as Venezuela, Nigeria and Philippines - as a consumer smartphone - and that Blackberry had no global strategy to capitalize on that weird sporadic success. That SHOULD have been the most important project for RIM in 2010. Figure out why and how to replicate that in Brazil, India, Thailand etc. If Blackberry had managed to replicate the HUGE loyalty and customer satisfaction in those markets - well before people asked for phablet screens - Blackberry would have ridden the Emerging-world market boom and be a Top 3 smartphone maker today, even if all of the USA had totally cratered haha. But they instead got iEnvy and put all their management eggs into the tablet. I was in Nigeria just last autumn and the Blackberry loyalty is still remarkably strong... coulda shoulda woulda..

Its easy to see in hindsight - but I WAS on this blog saying the tablet was stupid idea and Blackberry had surprising success in sporadic Emerging World markets in some even outselling Nokia in smartphones (like Venezuela) and that this was a huge key to RIM management, they should now exploit whatever that magic was, and replicate it. And obviously even as RIM was a loyal long-term client of mine - a public reference client - and I know they read my blog very thoroughly at Waterloo - no, they didn't follow my advice haha. And here we are today.

Rotten - very valid worry about Tizen and Samsung's ability to build on the software side. Against my best hopes (above comment) there is the reality side of me which says Tizen is doomed haha... We will see rather quickly as Tizen's time will run out in a few years. They have to make hay now, while there still is a dumbphone population to convert to smartphones.

Rotten on the WP generates 1/20 revenues vs 1/10 market share. Very good point and this will also be VERY true of Tizen at least in the early going. Bangladesh best-selling smartphone? That is not your hot market for paid apps or even for an advertising market haha. Samsung Z1 and Z3 are clearly aiming for lower end phones with modest specs, so these will not be highly spending smartphone owners.

Rotten - good analysis of Windows Phone 10 vs iOs and vs Android. I agree also with you that the primary beneficiary of whatever remains of the little Windows Phone market share. That mostly will not go to iPhones - except in the USA where some will. But thats a tiny slice of Windows Phone global shipments.

Catriona & Winter - re Bangladesh, Emerging World, USA. Samsung is in the business to sell handsets. You Catriona will buy one or two handsets. Lets say an iPhone for 600 dollars. If Samsung sells 10 Tizen phones at 100 dollars, that is 1,000 dollars in revenues (and yes, much less profit per phone). The high end phone market is saturated and Samsung plays there with the Galaxy. But the bottom of the pyramid is still open - and its VALUE is roughly the same as the top, but far more widely spread. And the SMART play is to sell into both - but without ruining your brand.

Why is Apple NOT offering a discount iOS brand? Why not? Why not allow Foxconn to sell a low-cost basic 3.5 inch touch screen 2mp camera iOS device. Pay a licence for iOS to Apple - the device would never be confused as an iPhone but those users would join the iOS ecosystem. This would be smart strategy for the ECOSYSTEM. A long-term strategy because the iPhone itself - and Apple brand - cannot be brought to the low end. But there is a HUGE market that WILL buy smartphones and would be useful additions to iOS reach. Stupid again, short-termism by Apple. Leaving money on the table. When Apple will finally offer lower-cost iPhones all the analysts will say 'of course' but who was first arguing that Apple HAS to pursue this opportunity? Yeah. And to do it so smartly it won't hurt the flagship iPhone sales? Maybe the iPhone 6C will be another tiny step in the right direction.

Why does GM offer the same care dressed up as a Cadillac for premium price and Chevrolet for low cost. Why does Volkswagen offer the same car dressed up as an Audi for premium and Skoda for low cost. Why does Toyota sell the same car as Lexus for premium and Toyota for low cost. This is STANDARD marketing. This is what Samsung does with Galaxy and Tizen. Why did Porsche introduce the Boxter as a cheap Porsche... Design it not to compete with your flagship (ie Porsche 911) and sell more... Well, who cares what Tomi thinks..

Winter - correct on the iPhone being the response to musicphones but the sequence was not what you said. The iPhone came first before the iPod Touch.

Huber - good point about Apple beancounters vs Steve Jobs. I think the Apple Watch is perfect evidence of trying to do something Jobs would approve and failing miserably at it. There is no mass market compelling reason yet to get an Apple Watch other than 'its pretty' and all evidence of smart watches say one third of buyers will tire of them within six months. The Apple Watch could have revolutionized the watch or smartwatch market but it didn't. There is nothing here that rivals don't already do - vs what the Mac was or the iPod was or the iPhone etc - something that was magical and nobody else could do. The Apple Watch will be seen as the first proof that Tim Cook is not as good as Steve Jobs (greatest business manager of all time, hardly a fair comparison) and he will take a lot of flack for the Apple Watch eventually failing the market.

Huber - excellent comment on consumer market share (and Android and iOS)

NO ONE - about rising price. The ASP of smartphones has been coming down but as smartphones took over as majority of all phones sold, the ASP of all phones suddenly grew a bit. The weird thing with top end phones is that there has been a somewhat artificial ceiling of about 600 dollars (unsubsidised price) for top premium phones for the past 5 years. It was the previous Nokia superphones that were priced near or even above 1,000 dollars. Now as I've been yelling that this is silly, we've finally seen last year a bump up of some flagships into the 700 and 800 dollar range but still well below 1,000. I think there is plenty of room for higher-priced top phones. IF several flagships go to higher prices, we could also see the ASP for smartphones rise briefly before it again returns to reducing prices globally.

Lullz - you asked for example of using 12 month moving average. As you can see here above, I did the numbers for the last 2 years and 6 months..

(more comments coming)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Lullz

@Tomi

"Lullz - you asked for example of using 12 month moving average. As you can see here above, I did the numbers for the last 2 years and 6 months.."

Thanks. This was actually what I had in mind when I tried to say that Apple was gaining market share. Of course not something like 46% because that would be comparing quarter to quarter. I was thinking about Apple having more market share than 14.8% they had in 2014. The growth may not be that big but it's better than decline.

My January guess for iPhone sales in calendar Q2 was 50 Million. For calendar Q3 I predicted 56-60 Million. This is getting interesting. Now I haven't calculated what the market share would be with 49 Million or 50 Million phones. That can be done when the real numbers are out.

Catriona

@Tomi, there are WAY too many car analogies made when analyzing the mobile market, but to use your Chevy/Cadillac example, do some research on the Cadillac Cimarron in the 1980s and the Catera in the 1990s. Apple is very protective of their brand, and allowing Foxconn to market a "cheap" iPhone under a different brand would just dilute their brand and drag it down. The price differential for cars is only about 10-15% between the base and luxury models built on the same platform. That's $60-90 in mobile, which isn't that much considering that they already do that by selling the old models. The type of device you seem to describe would be like putting out an iPhone with 2010 specs. It would be seen as junk and there is no way that Apple would be able to dissociate itself from it, no matter what it was branded.

I think you are still suffering the symptoms of the Steve Jobs reality distortion field. There was nothing that the original iPod "did" that competing music players didn't. It simply looked good and was easy to use. Heck, for a little while, iPod didn't support Windows at all, and for the first year that it did, it used a 3rd party software solution. And iTunes is one of the worst, most bloated, and difficult pieces of software Apple has ever written. The Watch will do fine, and will likely get the wearable category noticed. There's not much wrong with the functionality of "smart watches" other than they are slow and the early versions paid no attention at all to aesthetics. The technology will improve rapidly enough, and there's not much that will be done on a small screen, anyway. Fitness, notifications, payments, and telling time are the basic functions in addition to looking good. It is a supplemental revenue stream.

NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS

@Tomi, Thanks for the reply. But I have a lot of difficulty seeing the value of an $800+ (US dollar) smartphone with a two year life expectancy ...this 2 year time frame seems to be what the industry is pushing in general. Compare that to a PC at $800+ which can easily last 10 years (or more). That has to impact the high end market, not necessarily because a potential buyer can't afford it but may now feel they are wasting their money. My 2 cents.

Everyone ... NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE!

NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS

Ooops .. that end comment should read (...forec of habit):

NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE!

...sorry for any confusion to the astroturfers ... :-)

Winter

@Boron
"There has never ever in the history of business a company with US$750,000,000,000 market cap and US$200,000,000,000 in cash that has failed."

... and had two founders both called Steve that build computers ....

Because, you know, there has never been a company with that market cap and that cash reserve (that was founded by two Steves and sold computers), so you can never be wrong.

You make it this specific because there have been collapses that were just as dramatic when you take into account the relative sizes of the companies as part of the national (global) economy.

For those who can handle exchange rates and PPP, here is an entertaining list:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_corporate_collapses_and_scandals

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-greatest-economic-collapses-in-world-history-2012-7?op=1&IR=T

abdul muis

@Tomi

"Blackberry also said very openly they had no clue why they were the bestselling smartphone in markets such as Venezuela, Nigeria and Philippines - as a consumer smartphone - and that Blackberry had no global strategy to capitalize on that weird sporadic success. That SHOULD have been the most important project for RIM in 2010. Figure out why and how to replicate that in Brazil, India, Thailand etc. If Blackberry had managed to replicate the HUGE loyalty and customer satisfaction in those markets - well before people asked for phablet screens - Blackberry would have ridden the Emerging-world market boom and be a Top 3 smartphone maker today, even if all of the USA had totally cratered haha. But they instead got iEnvy and put all their management eggs into the tablet. I was in Nigeria just last autumn and the Blackberry loyalty is still remarkably strong... coulda shoulda woulda.."

Blackberry success in that market because:
1. the carrier infrastructure can't handle the high speed data, so the Android/iOS experience is not that great
2. the SMS price in that market is too high, and those user use BB just to use BBM. and now all is gone to android/whatsapp or android/bbm
3. BB sell lots of BB7 device very CHEAP. When BB not selling the BB7 again, this market collapse!!

"Why is Apple NOT offering a discount iOS brand? Why not? Why not allow Foxconn to sell a low-cost basic 3.5 inch touch screen 2mp camera iOS device. Pay a licence for iOS to Apple - the device would never be confused as an iPhone but those users would join the iOS ecosystem. This would be smart strategy for the ECOSYSTEM. A long-term strategy because the iPhone itself - and Apple brand - cannot be brought to the low end. But there is a HUGE market that WILL buy smartphones and would be useful additions to iOS reach. Stupid again, short-termism by Apple. Leaving money on the table. When Apple will finally offer lower-cost iPhones all the analysts will say 'of course' but who was first arguing that Apple HAS to pursue this opportunity? Yeah. And to do it so smartly it won't hurt the flagship iPhone sales? Maybe the iPhone 6C will be another tiny step in the right direction."

http://appledailyreport.com/foxconn-to-sell-refurbished-iphones-starting-at-us80/
http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20150414000042&cid=1102
http://www.engadget.com/2015/03/25/foxconn-iphone-trade-in-china/

"the reality of 10% actual market share globally, when Android will be over 80% and likely over 85% will be a crushing blow to iOS developers many who think that because iPhone has 35% of US market that will soon also be their global share. Some developers live in that fantasy and will crash and burn. Others are slowly discovering the reality that their Android versions far outperform the iOS versions. When the truth comes through that they are not near equals, but iOS is a niche and Android rules, then the ecosystem fantasy will end. That means most apps will not be developed for iOS, only for Android. THAT is why 20% matters. If its 20% iPhone and 70% Android and 10% others, then yes, Apple developers can think iPhone has a chance to do 'an Xbox' some day, and its worth doing it. But if iOS falls to 10% they see its 'another Mac' and most developers will shift to Android-only. Its inevitable math. Why these numbers, because of the HISTORY of the Mac... Apple developers know how useless is a 10% share."

I agree with what you said, but wondering why would you think BB be a niche market with less than 1% market share? Shouldn't blackberry be death with less than 1% market share?

NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS

"I think at this point in time it should be quite obvious who is posting this shit." ....yes, microsoft astroturfers!!!!

This is not me pretending posting as a fake Tomi! ....but it sure looks like the microosft astroturfers are trying to blame me because they are getting frustrated at me challangeing and calling out their nonsense BS propoganda.

Remember astroturfers! ,,,say it with me...

NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE!

NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS

Even the windows sites are realizing the bad news ....more reading for the astroturfers:

http://wmpoweruser.com/gartner-windows-phone-held-2-5-market-share-in-q1-2015/

All you astroturfers now ....hop on one foot and say it with me

...... NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE! ....LoL!

Catriona

@Winter, the company would need to be completely mismanaged for years to collapse. It's not like Motorola whose strategy of "more RAZRs" collapsed when it couldn't easily convert RAZR customers to Droids. Tomi likes to point to Samsung since they make refrigerators, weapons, and chips, but the reality is that they are just as vulnerable, if not more so, than Apple. The chaebol are going to fall under increasingly intense political and social pressure as the 3rd generation of the controlling families takes over. They don't have the same political and social cover the first two generations had, and will be under pressure to "prove" their worth. From a governance standpoint, they should probably break up.

Winter

@Catronia
"@Winter, the company would need to be completely mismanaged for years to collapse."

It almost happened in the 1990s. The large cash reserves can be captured by investors when they sense an end to profitability. Instead of a collapse, the mobile branch could be split off to save the money. The mobile phone part could then be sacrificed.

Winter

@Boron95
'Both Linus and the Nokia board knew that only the US West Coast can do Western consumer ecosystems"

So the plce is magical. Not the (US) Americans who live there as 30% of the people living in Startup land are foreign born and educated. From this we European should learn we only need to open our borders to foreigners to succeed.

I am not even sarcastic here, the best soccer team is the one with the most foreigners.

Catriona

@Baron95, to be fair, since T-Mobile USA got rid of 2 year contracts (and AT&T is slowly following suit), all phones there are advertised as "$0 down." That said, they are offering 128GB models for the price of 64GB models, which is rare for a model that came out 2 months ago.

Catriona

@Winter, in the 1990s Apple didn't start from an investment portfolio of $200 billion. Apple is basically an investment company that also makes phones and computers.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati