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May 25, 2015

Comments

Tomi T Ahonen

The Fake Tomi was here again.. I removed that comment which sounded like me but was not me.

Tomi T Ahonen :-)

Tester

@R:

I read that, too. Very interesting. If that article can be trusted, the Tizen API is close to garbage. Which would be par for course for Samsung. The biggest problem with Bada was also some extremely poor programming interface that made simple tasks excessively complicated and error-prone.

It should also serve as a clear indicator that close relationship of operating system has absolutely NO BEARING WHATSOEVER on development and user friendliness, making Tomi's assumptions about Tizen profiting from MeeGo quite dubious.

My take on the matter is that if Samsung wants to self-destruct their best option would be to release a premium device running on Tizen.

chithanh

The EFL provide the native Tizen API, however HTML5 is the preferred way to write Tizen apps. So it is not all bad.

It should be noted that besides Bada, Symbian also used poor interfaces (that horrible Symbian C++ dialect, anyone?). For Symbian, the way out was going to be Qt apps written in standard C++.

Tester

@chithanh:

" HTML5 is the preferred way to write Tizen apps. So it is not all bad."

I'd say it's even worse. Yet another language to develop apps with? Instant fail!
Remember: Tizen is an upstart, and if it makes it needlessly work intensive to port apps, it will end the same as Windows Phone 7, i.e. kill all chances for success before even launching.

Mike

Tomi- I have absolutely nothing to do with the industry (other than being a former Nokia phone consumer). But I love this blog and come back to it regularly. You actually make stats interesting, and your translation of what these stats mean is fascinating.

Winter

@Tomi
This is the very first time since you started to publish smartphone sales, i.e., since 1Q2010, that Android sales decline from one quarter to the next.

You write you think that the market did not contract that badly:
"Let me protest profusely here, I think it isn't 'that bad' and we may well get to see these numbers slightly revised upwards in coming quarters or the overall year final counts by these two houses, but what can I do?"

If the total number is up by ~40M (12% and it is all Android), we would see a "normal" growth for 4Q-1Q. But that seems to be an awful lot of missed sales.

If this decline is real, then this might indicate a serious break point in the market.

zlutor

@Tomi: Huawei & Lenovo produces any Tizen devices?

Winter

@Tomi
Maybe you can block posts containing?
"Tomi T Ahonen :-)"

Might help.

Winter

Maybe you can block posts containing? "Tomi T Ahonen :-)"

By others, of course (just to dispel any confusion).

E.Casais

@Winter

"If this decline is real, then this might indicate a serious break point in the market."

We actually need the figures on the total mobile market -- not just what are considered "smartphones" -- to assess the situation, keeping in mind the following issues:

a) The long-lasting economic hardship is probably starting to have a widespread impact. This was already the case in specific markets. In Spain, for instance, sales of mobile phones were decreasing a few years ago. One may also assume that people are shifting expenses from costly high-end models to more affordable mid-range devices.

b) There is a general trend towards pre-paid and pay-as-you-go schemes. Correspondingly, this puts the brake on fast device upgrades linked to periodic contract renewals.

c) There has been a continued migration from traditional mobile phones to touchscreen "smartphone" devices. It is possible that the migration has slowed down, as it increasingly concerns people for whom a smartphone is either too expensive to buy and operate, or does not fulfil practical requirements (here is the currently hot mobile phone in Africa: https://medium.com/product-notes/the-mystery-of-the-power-bank-phone-taking-over-accra-344adbb56919; definitely not a smartphone). But to ascertain whether migration is decelerating, one needs the full statistics on the mobile phone market.

d) This has been observed in some advanced markets (e.g. Germany): the number of mobile subscriptions has been decreasing for several years already. Once again, without full statistics we cannot know whether this is due to a decreasing usage of mobile phones, or rather of mobile datacards and other USB connectivity sticks.

The conclusion: stop thinking only in terms of iPhone vs Android -- there are other factors that can explain large market movements.

DarwinPhish

Tomi:

I am not sure how you can look at Apple's numbers and not see there is a very good chance they will increase market share this year. iPhone sales up up 40% YoY and last quarter they were up 46% YoY. These numbers are double the growth rate for the industry. If I recall, this time last year you had the iPhone's market share at 15% and now is almost 18%. That is almost 20% growth in market share.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi all

Good discussions, keep them going. Just a quick note, am sure many are interested. Samsung Z1 ie their only Tizen phone so far, released only in 2 countries so far, India and Bangladesh - is now the bestselling smartphone of Bangladesh. Yep. Don't count out Tizen quite yet. One country is not enough but this IS a start. A STRONG start. Now Sammy needs Tizen spread broadly and more handsets into the lineup. Firefox is dying before our eyes, Blackberry and Windows were already dead (on mobile) but Tizen. It has a chance. This is not proof it will succeed but a darn good sign. Story here

http://tech.thaivisa.com/tizen-z1-most-popular-phone-bangladesh/11142/

Tomi Ahonen :-)

abdul muis

Tomi,

Dont you think that the only reason people in bangladesh is because of samsung brand and lack of information? Would other more connected/informed market like USA/Europe/Japan/Korea/etc would react the same about Tizen?

abdul muis

tomi,

i try to post a link from micro$oft blog about their 'success' in blackmailing android mannufacture to preinstall skype and microsoft office.

but somehow i can't post it.

adi purbakala

Why many here post apple beat xiaomi in china again again. Is it same people posting?

The news is not right. It some wrong analyst say. Please dont post fake again again.

chithanh

IDC made another forecast.

http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS25641615

They say that Windows Phone market share for the whole year 2015 will be 3.2% which seems kind of high.
In the first quarter it was around 2.5% and there are no signs that it changed for the better in this quarter. Quite the opposite actually, with Digitimes reporting reduced part orders from Microsoft.

If we assume that sales only pick up on the launch of Windows 10 Mobile, to reach 3.2% Microsoft would need a whopping 5%+ market share in Q4.

Winter

@chithanh
"They say that Windows Phone market share for the whole year 2015 will be 3.2% which seems kind of high."

You mean this IDC?

Why IDC Predicts Windows Phone Will Surpass iOS by 2016
http://www.wired.com/2012/06/why-idc-predicts-windows-phone-will-surpass-ios-by-2016/

Tester

LOL.

So IDC still believes in Windows magic. Strongest growth by percentage each year? 5% market share in 2019? Utterly ridiculous.

Crun Kykd

I know the numbers are tiny, but all things start out small. SVVR2015 panel predictions for sales of VR headsets at end-of-year are 3.5M units. This is a new market for manufacturers of smartphone screens/cpu/graphics/battery sets that form the foundation of VR headsets.

abdul muis

@EggHead

First,
If you go to your kantar World link. It TRACKS URBAN CHINA. NOT ALL china!!!
So, saying Apple beat xiaomi in china is misleading
It should be said Apple beat xiaomi in URBAN china.

Second.....
"Also IDC, though I couldn't find direct IDC link http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/05/12/idc-reports-apple-inc-is-no-1-in-china.aspx"

Is this the same IDC that @Winter said above?
"Why IDC Predicts Windows Phone Will Surpass iOS by 2016
http://www.wired.com/2012/06/why-idc-predicts-windows-phone-will-surpass-ios-by-2016/"

http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prSG25614115

IDC hates google, I can't believe IDC data.

So, Maybe Apple ALMOST number 1, but it's STILL NOT number one. And saying it's number one IS WRONG!!

The comments to this entry are closed.

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