Smartphone Wars: Apple, LG results for Q1 plus Samsung and industry

Again just quick notes as I'm heavily traveling but some are waiting for this info

Apple results out obviously. iPhone sales down 11% from Q4 to 61.1M and prelim market share is down to 17% from 20% last quarter. The large screen bump to the iPhone is now subsiding clearly. And obviously the silly stories of iPhone being bigger than Samsung are now well past us. Apple is still making by far biggest profits - we won't dwell on that on this blog, we acknowledge it, Apple has by far best loyalty also. 

LG reported a far better performance in Q1 vs Q4 with essentially flat sales in a period when the market is down. LG total smartphone sales were 15.4 million, down 1% from 15.5 million in Q4. The market share for LG is up from 4.1% to prelim 4.3%.

Then two of the big 3 analyst houses have given their counts of the total global smartphone market for Q1 of 2015, Strategy Analytics counted 345 million, and IDC counted 336.5 million. These numbers seem too small to me and may be later revised upwards, but we'll have to go with what they say for now. I was expecting this period to be significantly bigger sales, powered by China sales for their New Year gift-giving. But yeah, lets see if we get a Canalys number at a higher level perhaps to bring the average up somewhat, but yeah. Suprrisingly weak Q1 compared to recent history how the market had performed.

Samsung gave their Q1 numbers but as normal, didn't give their smartphone unit count. However the two analyst houses did give their counts of Samsung and that average of those two is at 82.8 million so its pretty safe to say that Sammy contiunes being the world's largest smartphone maker with a healthy gap to Apple at number 2, and note, Samsung sales are up 11% this quarter where most of the quarter didn't have the new Galaxy S6 and Edge models even for sale. (Again I think the total count of the market by IDC and Strategy Analytics this quarter was too conservative...)

Ok thats the quick update. I'll collect the rest of the smartphone maker data as they come out and do the Q1 total market data as soon as enough info is available. 

Comments

[Lullz]

I'm confused. Why are you comparing iPhone sales quarter on quarter when you have said that the correct way to do that would be comparing 12 months to 12 months?

[cornelius]

I think the decline quarter on quarter is only due to seasonality and not to the large screen wave fading. IMHO the large screen wave will fade around September. The large screen wave should sail at least a complete year. I expect Apple's Christmas quarter this year to be flat compared to last year's Christmas quarter. I think the large screen was the last trick Apple could pull to increase sales. It will be all downhill starting this fall, but not sooner.

[Huber]

@John F:

It is obvious that Apple lost market share From 2012 to 2014.

Only with the release of the iPhone 6/6+ this trend was reversed dramatically - at least for the last 2 consecutive quarters.

The discussion is now about how long this will last, if these quarters are outliners or if we see a new trend etc.

But your statement is retarded, sorry.

[Catriona]

iPhone sales are always cyclical. It's hard to say that iPhone 6/6Plus sales have "subsided" since they were dramatically better than most estimates, which pegged sales around 56 million. As Huber points out, the proper comparison for Apple is year on year, and they hit it out of the park, up from about 15% last year to 17% this year. iPhone 6 clearly had a positive impact on Apple's market share. iPhone sales will likely be around 45 million in the current quarter, which Tomi will probably claim means that the iPhone has "peaked," but which would again be a significant bump from the 37 million they sold in the comparable quarter in 2014.

[Catriona]

Supposedly Samsung dropped to 4th in China. It will be interesting to see if the Galaxy S6/S6 Edge reverses that.

@Cornelius, Apple adopting the large screen was the last OBVIOUS move to increase market share (apart from dropping the price, which I don't see Apple doing anytime soon), though if Samsung's S6 Edge proves to be an enduring hit and not just a one-time bump, we may see Apple do something similar in the future. Phones have mostly matured now, so there is nothing obvious that anyone can do right now to grow market share except go further downmarket, which it seems even Samsung does not want to do anymore.

The current rumors are for an improved camera (possibly with dual lenses), Force Touch, and under-the-hood improvements such as RAM. The 5S improvements looked minor on paper, but Apple did enjoy a sales increase, even after factoring in the effects of new carriers. I think we'll see relatively flat sales of the iPhone 6S, but from a much bigger base. By this fall, we'll also see whether the Apple Watch can make a meaningful contribution to Apple. They'll have the production issues sorted out by then, and there will be a big holiday push.

[abdul muis]

@Catriona

YoY is to see that iphone 6/6+ reverse the market erosion trend.

QoQ is to see how far/long the iphone 6/6+ rule. If the peak of iphone 6 is high and long, that's mean Apple is doing their strategy perfectly. If the peak of iphone 6 is high&short then fall hard. That's mean iSheep hurrying to upgrade, after that regular iphone owner that no hurry to upgrade.

After Apple introduce the next iphone, we will interested in YoY again. If the next iPhone could sell on the same level of iPhone 6, that's also means Apple still doing great. If the next iphone, the market sales keep eroding, that's mean Apple need to think something else.

[Catriona]

@abdul, but Apple's revenue exceeded both its own guidance and just about every analyst's, driven by iPhone sales since iPad "missed" by quite a bit, and Mac was slightly lower than expectations. That means that iPhone sold better than just about everyone expected, including Apple. Tim Cook also specifically said that the rate of "switchers" has never been higher. And China actually did pass up the U.S. in the quarter just ended. Maybe it's just seasonality (Chinese New Year), but maybe it's just the increased availability of the iPhone 6/6 Plus in China. Either way, it's significant.

After years of saying that YoY comparisons are the only ones relevant to Apple, it seems that Tomi and others are moving the goal posts. Apple had a spectacular quarter and is predicting another good quarter, albeit with much lower QoQ sales, typical of their normal cycle. They have sold nearly 136 million iPhones in the past 2 quarters. Even with "only" 40-45 million the next two quarters that would be a significant increase for FY 2015, and at a higher ASP than FY 2014. So to increase unit sales AND ASP is quite an accomplishment.

[John A]

About the smartphone war in general. Microsoft just step up the game in this. I know their marketshare is low.
But they announced some very interesting stuff at Microsoft Build 2015.

1. They made a serious program to porting apps with minor code changes from iOS and Android to Windows: ”Project Astoria” and ”Project Islandwood”
Its already one app in the Windows Phone Store they have ported from iOS (as a first test so to speak): Candy Chrush Saga. I guess some Windows fans/purist may not like it.
But they targeting a lot of more developers than only Windows developers that can add their stuff on Windows 10, and its not like sideloading Android apps like in BlackBerry for example.
It will definitly bring more apps to the Windows platform if the process are easy and good.

2. The retail experience if you buy a Windows Phone or tablet are not good.The sales staff in a mobile shops etc..often recommend iPhone or some Samsung device if you alreday not decided yourself in advance what to buy..
They launced a big program for it to. "Microsoft Priority Reseller Store" First one has already open in New Dehli India.
(similar to the independed Apple stores you may have seen, looks like the official Apples stores but run by partners)
Its a global program that will include some old Nokia stores that will be renovated/rebranded in total about 15.000 units around the world the coming months.
A very big push from only have Microsoft stores in USA and Canada.

I guess that tells me they will not pulling out from the smartphone market after all, if it be any changes in marketshare the coming months/year who knows?
It will be interesting to see the outcome in all this.

[Catriona]

@John A, simply porting iOS and Android apps isn't enough, though. iOS and Android have different UI design, both from each other, and from Windows. Sure, they are both flat and somewhat similar, but it will be clear what is a native Windows app vs. what is just a simple port. The ported apps may be clunky. Mac users have dealt with that issue for quite some time.

[Spawn]

@baronN99

> [Apple's] rise to #1 in China

http://www.computerworld.com/article/2884877/xiaomi-leads-chinas-smartphone-market-despite-apples-iphone-6.html

For the Canalys numbers, its not the first time they make them up.
"The Canalys Are Deliberately Misleading and Utterly Untrustworthy Edition (PS: Not first time for Canalys)"
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2014/02/paging-mythbusters-again-did-microsofts-windows-phone-really-grow-more-in-2012-than-android-or-ios-h.html

[Spawn]

For QoQ comparision 4/14 with 1/15; Not forget that China was THE driving force for Apple and we just had Chinese new year in Q1. Sure is it relevant to compare how new year holiday gift-giving season may influence the numbers. Its kind of disappointing that this had such low effects. A confirmation that the initial raise after first time lage screen iphones isn't keeping the numbers up permanenly. We for sure will see more when coparing YoY en of this year but we are no there yet.

[Phil W]

@ John F

YoY comparisons can only be usefully done after the next two quarters ie the 6/6+ has been available for 4 quarters. The first two quarters have provided Apple with a big boost, that is undeniable, but we need to wait for the next two quarters to see if this is a year long improvement or just a front loaded year.

I'm not making any prediction either way here, I'm just saying it is too early to be calculating YoY market share gains.

[John F.]

@Huber |

The discussion is now about how long this will last, if these quarters are outliners or if we see a new trend etc.
But your statement is retarded, sorry.

Ummm let me think, Ah yes... You apparently can't even read let alone understand.

Go back and try to read it again, your "how long it will last" is lasting since a long time, that's why the numbers, and for a long time your retarded comments about the imminent end of apple good performance go back a long time, again and again you predict all kinds of wrong things and not only they never happened, what happens is exactly the opposite ... apple keeps growing and growing in units number but you can't even put 2 and 2 together, so sorry for you ... Specifically I mentioned the market share issue and that's exactly what you come up with .. reading is a skill learned before primary school.

[Catriona]

@Spawn and @PhilW, Chinese New Year was also in play in 2014, as the 5S was released on China Mobile in Q1-14. What is happening is that the 6 and 6 Plus led to increased sales above both Apple's guidance and analyst expectations. Apple's guidance for the current quarter suggests iPhone sales of around 45 million, compared to 37 million in the same quarter last year. Tim Cook also said they were getting a higher percentage of "switchers" than ever. So this appears to be more than just pulling sales forward, but a sustained increase in sales. Lots of people still have the 5S and 5C, and so this fall should also see a healthy upgrade cycle.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

It's interesting that Apple actually does manage to lift their market share a bit. If that is the case, kudos to them. As I stated before, they still have a long long way to go until they are back to 20%, or even better.

Apples problem is that their iPhone 7 need to be an even greater smash hit than the iPhone 6, and the iPhone 8 even greater than that. After that Apple can rest a bit easier at maybe 20% market share.

It's very unlikely, but yes, it could happen and yes, if any company can do it it's Apple. Chances of that happening though? Under 5% chance.

[Phil W]

@ Catriona

Not disputing any of what you say, I just saw a number of posts that seemed to be getting ahead of themselves trying to mix apples and pears, as it were, to claim a yearly market share. we will see if what you are guessing at holds true in two quarters time.

[abdul muis]

and now someone clone my name!!!!
Please be polite, if you want to clone me use a slightly different variation of the name!!

[abdul muis]

@John F.

Because the apple growth is just one time growth. It's NOT forever growth.

@PWE

I think it's not hard for Apple to do that. They're handset is several generation behind the android in term of spec. They could put 2 GB or 3GB or 4GB of RAM and the phone will become snappier than ever. They could put another 2 cores and make it quad core. They could use 14nM FinFET tech. They could make the multitasking even better because of the more RAM. They could use a better camera. And they could put BIGGER battery.

[John A]

@Catriona

I understand that can be a problem to porting Android/iOS apps to Windows. But they seem to have a advanced tool:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cXgTicA8W4

To make sure it works. I see the problem more in the legal department so to speak.
In some cases maybe the Google maps inside a app will be removed and replaced with Bing/HERE maps etc..
Google/Android are in court in the EU at this moment for their monopoly actions and so on.

But I am not sure they will Microsoft get away with this without any respons.
Im no expert in this field but will be interesting to see the outcome.

[Huber]

@John F: "Ummm let me think, Ah yes... You apparently can't even read let alone understand."

Are you really _that_ dense? I quote the relevant Android & iOS numbers directly from this page here:

2011 FULL YEAR OPERATING SYSTEM MARKET SHARES
Rank . . OS . . . . . . . . 2011 units . market share . 2010 units . market share
1 (2) . . Android . . . . 208 M . . . . 43% . . . . . . . . . 54 M . . . . 18%
2 (4) . . iOS . . . . . . . . . . 93 M . . . . 19% . . . . . . . . . 48 M . . . . 16%

2012 FULL YEAR OPERATING SYSTEM MARKET SHARES
Rank . . OS . . . . . . . . 2012 units . . share . . 2011 units . . share . . 2010 units . . share
1 (1) . . Android . . . . . 452 M . . . . . 65% . . . 208 M . . . . . 43% . . . 54 M . . . . . . 18%
2 (2) . . iOS . . . . . . . . 136 M . . . . . 20% . . . . 93 M . . . . . 19% . . . 48 M . . . . . . 16%

2013 FULL YEAR OPERATING SYSTEM MARKET SHARES
Rank . . OS . . . . . . . . . 2013 units . . share . . .2012 units . . share . . 2011 units . . share
1 (1) . . Android . . . . . . 767.3 M . . . 78% . . . 452 M . . . . . 65% . . . 208 M . . . . . 43%
2 (2) . . iOS . . . . . . . . . 153.4 M . . . . 16% . . . 136 M . . . . . 20% . . . . 93 M . . . . . 19%

_T H I S _ is what I am refering to - Android grew from 2011 to 2013 from 208 Millions/year sold to 767.3 Millions/year, while Apple grew from 93 Millions/year to 153.4 Millions/year.

Only in Q3 2014 the trend was reversed - at least for Q4 2014 and Q1 2015.

And yes, I expected this trend to continue after the iPhone 6 release - I expected a bump in sales for Q4 2014, but nothing of this magnitude. And I surely did not expect that Q1 2015 would look so well for Apple.

So yes, I was wrong. So what? At least I admit when being wrong, unlike some other posters here (who change subjects etc.).

As a sidenote, probably I was wrong because of this: http://xkcd.com/1497/ :-)

Now the big question is: Is this a long-term reversal of the 2011-2013 trend or not?

But for some people this seems to be hard to understand, for whatever reason.