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« The Truth Is In The Pocket - Now New Zealand statistic is repeated in USA by Pew | Main | Reviewing My Last 4 Year Forecast Blog (3 Years In) from 2012 »

April 02, 2015

Comments

Tomi T Ahonen

Just one comment..

Spawn - excellent summary of Samsung & Tizen on how it got here and how bad its gotten. I fully agree with that comment and very detailed specific analysis of what are the issues heading forward.

To all others please keep the discussion going. Its turning a bit into a Windows-yes-or-no debate (which is ok, it was part of the prediction) but would of course welcome comments also on all the other parts of the forecast. You guys know my view on the Windows path haha so nothing more here to add to that.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Catriona

@SVE, a large augmented reality device as you suggest fails the fashion test. It makes someone look like a tech nerd, and lots of people, particularly women (who outnumber men, remember) won't wear it. A watch isn't a sure thing, but it is much less obtrusive.

@Baron95 and Leebase, your a probably right overall. I do think that Google wasn't completely off base with thinking that eyeglasses were a logical place to extend technology. After all, most of us need some form of corrective lenses for our eyes. But Google Glass wasn't the right format. If it could somehow be incorporated into the lens itself while remaining transparent it might work. But it would need to be available in lots of different shapes and sizes. Another obstacle is that those in their 20s and 30s, the prime tech audience, also have the most stable eyesight. They can go 10 years or more on the same prescription.

I think Apple Watch and similar Android Wear devices have about 3-4 years of solid growth. After that, anyone who wants an electronic watch will have one, and the market will stabilize by then.

Winter

How about displays that project an image into your eye. Combined with eye tracking, this could even be 3D/holographic.

That would overcome the display limitations of a watch.

abdul muis

According to this survey:
http://www.cnet.com/news/samsung-beats-apple-in-customer-loyalty-microsoft-has-little-says-survey/

Samsung has HIGHER customer loyalty than Apple, Microsoft have the smallest loyalty. (and please baron99, don't re-post the NO ONE xxxxxxxx). So, maybe Tomi were wrong about Galaxy S6 prediction and thinking that is better to get the iphone 6.

baron99

I think a lot of loyalty tracks with price. My opinion but not sure. Apple is high/over priced. Maybe they don't see the apple value after some usage and less expensive alternatives, once tried, are "good enough" to most people who are happy at that price point.

RottenApple

@Catriona:

"I think Apple Watch and similar Android Wear devices have about 3-4 years of solid growth. After that, anyone who wants an electronic watch will have one, and the market will stabilize by then. "

I think the biggest uncertainty with smartwatches is, how often are people willing to replace them.
Especially for the luxury models for several $1000 a two year replacement cycle as is common for smartphones right now is certainly not going to work out, anyone who spends this much money on a gadget would certainly expect it to last longer than that.

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

AndThisWillBeToo

What comes to Samsung's impending Watergate and Bendgate, CNet tested SGS6 Edge for bending. It broke apart at 149 pounds of pressure, whereas the iPhone 6 Plus survived until 179 pounds.

Samsung did not only copy iPhone for SGS6, they did bad job at it.

baron99

More proof that NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE :-)

http://betanews.com/2015/04/06/windows-phone-keeps-on-losing-major-apps/

...and even the very few windows only apps are going to Apple and Android

http://betanews.com/2015/04/02/microsoft-brings-office-lens-to-android-and-iphone-no-longer-windows-phone-exclusive/

Again its clear to see that NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE ... except for astroturfers and those still waiting for Moore's law ...that ridiculous statement is just sooooo funny :-)

Catriona

@abdul muis surveys like that, which are contradicted by actual sales data (which showed that Samsung had a drop in sales last year) are a big part of the reason why I usually take survey results with a grain of salt. Granted, if Samsung's sales pick up again this year, it could indicate that the drop wasn't caused by people switching to other phones, and instead was simply Samsung buyers who deferred purchases to this year since the S6 is a significant improvement. But we won't know that for a few months.

John

I suppose Tomi can have right in his prediction. But I must point out that the Windows Phone have not much to do with the Windows desktop, its not the same OS even if you can think it if you see the Metro interface.
The phone OS are built at ARM architecture not intel as in the desktop, so no virus on the phone side.

But I wonder how it going for Sony? Seems like T-Mobile will stop with them:
"T-Mobile discontinues the Sony Xperia Z3 after less than six months on sale"

So I wonder if they will stop with the phone business? They have not much research in Sweden/Lund anymore, almost everybody there is fired.

Catriona

@LeeBase, we may not know since Apple has already said that they won't give sales figures for the Apple Watch in their earnings reports. The reservation system also seems designed to manage in-store sales (though that shouldn't affect pre-orders). 1 million might be optimistic since even the iPhone 6 generated "only" 10 million pre-orders. I'd venture that Apple will just give a generic press release next week and the Monday after the actual launch but not mention sales figures.

baron99

"I must point out that the Windows Phone have not much to do with the Windows desktop, its not the same OS even if you can think it if you see the Metro interface"

Really!!!!! TOTAL Nonsense!!!!!! This is exactly what I mean about uninformed people (or astroturfers) shilling for Microsoft. The fact of the matter is that phones, desktops, set-top boxes and many computing devices all share lots of common code. Software component reuse has been around for decades. For example, do you really think the code bugs in things like USB support in windows code found in the desktop isn’t in your windows phone? ...and don't you think an engineer is going to pick up the code from the desktop OS as the starting point (and many times the ending point) for a windows phone OS effort? Here is a nearly 20 year old microsoft reference from "1996" bragging about reuse!

http://news.cnet.com/MS-readies-software-reuse-tools/2100-1001_3-238791.html

Here is a recent reference to "Maximize code reuse between Windows Phone 8 and Windows 8" at:
https://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/windows/apps/jj681693%28v=vs.105%29.aspx

And some more from Microsoft at....

https://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/bb384835%28v=vs.90%29.aspx

https://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/magazine/cc895632.aspx

...just go to microsoft web sites or research and tools etc. for lots more references.

Software manufacturers embrace reuse on purpose to save money. If you are a software company (assuming you have at least more than one product) then you know that producing good quality software has gotten very expensive and reuse is the holy grail of software development. Reusable software is an industry unto itself. It's what Object Oriented Programming and Java to name a few, is all about too.

Please get educated! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Code_reuse

Too bad we can't see microsoft code (like you can inspect open source). But, chances are all the code defects and design errors that enable virus attacks on the desktop are in the windows phone too ...basically windows is a slow buggy defective platform! To claim their OS bugs are not there in WP is just more PR propaganda! ...and the industry has learned from the desktop that virus and microsoft go hand in hand ...and that is another reason why NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE!

John

They scrap Windows Mobile back in the days and made a total makeower with Windows Phone 7 with a lot of less features than Windows Mobile.
(Windows Mobile hade a much higher marketshare I think around 25 % or so at is peak in some markets)

Windows Phone 7 was based at Windows CE, Windows desktop was based on Windows NT.
It was not until Windows Phone 8 they changed to NT. But it still runs the ARM processor.

I have not say they have some common codes. But dont pretend if all is the same stuff if you not got a clue.

Yes Microsoft got a very low markethare on the phone side now but thats another subject.

RottenApple

@baron99:

Unfortunately your post only proves that you have no idea what you are talking about, all that's obvious is that your anti-Microsoft bias is clouding your judgment.

So a few facts:
- sure there is code reuse from Windows desktop to Windows Phone. Wanna bet that some pieces of code are even shared between Windows and Linux? As long as nobody can decompile all that stuff it can never be conclusively proven.

- you are making Microsoft's code look worse than it is. which is rather typical for haters. You blindly assume that their code is bad by default without having any proof for it. All people like you see is that most malicious attacks are directed against Windows, but that has nothing to do with code stability but mostly with the high market share, familiarity with the code and the resulting experience to test it for vulnerabilities. Had Apple a higher market share they'd be more aggressively targetted as well. And seeing how dismissive Apple is about security issues (because changing that would rupture their self-image of 'security by design'.) I honestly believe they'd be in for a rough ride if that happened. (Do I need to mention 'goto fail;'???)

So and now for the situation Microsoft is in:

Code reuse nonwithstanding, the fact remains that Windows Phone and Desktop are highly incompatible systems and all that blabbering about 'one Windows' will not change one bit about the fact that Windows Phone will never benefit from Desktop's prominence. The entire Metro/App Store thing hasn't caught on for desktop users, and I strongly doubt that any tinkering will change this. Desktop users want to use desktop software mostly, and developers do not have much interest in making touch-centric software for Windows. This brings us to an interesting situation:
Even though Metro in Windows 10 is supposed to have better desktop support, I have my serious doubts that this will tilt the scale in any serious way.
Why?
Well, the app store submission process will be a surefire way to keep many developers away from it!
Let's be serious about Microsoft's goals - they need cross-device software to resolve the app problem for their phones. That means that they'll implement strict guidelines about how their Metro apps need to work.
Most tool developers won't have anything to do with it, the ones to most likely into the program are those who want to make a quick buck out of some shitty app that does a piss-poor job at what it advertises - precisely the kind you get offered as crippled shareware versions that fail to do a proper presentation, so you have to buy sight unseen to check it out, only that then it's too late and they got their money.
In addition Metro's limitations mean that it's very, very hard to port cross-platform tools to it, so these will remain in the desktop realm. I already had some fun with cross platform code that refused to work on WindowsPhone because it used synchronous file I/O which happened to take too long and make the app time out and abort. Now that was real fun to resolve without rewriting anything with Microsoft shitty asynchronous I/O system which would have nuked my code...
So, sorry, those who believe that 'unified Windows app-ecosystem' will help give a boost to Windows phones are in for a rude awakening.

What Microsoft really needs to do is bury Metro (and maybe make it just an extension to Win32) and offer working touch support to their Win32 desktop API. Unless they do that they'll create one failure after the next. But they can't do that because clueless investors would punish them to extinction if they did some sane business decisions now...

Lullz

My predictions for 2018.

Android 78%, iOS 17%, Tizen less than 1%.

abdul muis

My prediction for 2018
Blackberry less than 0.2%
Windows less than 1%
Tizen less than 2%
Apple around 8%-9%
Android 87%+

baron99

What total GARBAGE from the seriously uninformed or usual astroturfers - you pick? I was part of a study at a large company a few years back and the code among their many products was estimated to be over 80+% the same (I am not going any further to identify the company but it was large). Their goal was even higher reuse and attempt to deal with the accumulation of defects in products. Let's stick with the facts:

Does anyone seriously think they write a new OS task dispatcher, for every product?
Does anyone think they write a new memory management for every product?
Does anyone think they write new hardware drivers, for every product?
Does anyone think ...fill in your favorite part of the OS?

The astroturfers would like us to believe everything is "shinny new" and defect free from microsoft. Totally laughable!

Talk to any software engineer and see where their starting point is for any coding project? ....yup, look at the existing code base and see what they can "borrow" But lots of time they don't really know how the code works only that a few quick mods get it to work for what they want (the project has a deadline you know and they are encouraged to reuse).

So, they not only copy over the old defects sitting in the code (unexposed for years) and waiting for a new environment to reveal themselves, also in this mod process they often create new defects too. ...and testing is far from perfect and only confirms the presence of a defect. The customers and virus generation industry usually find many that were missed. Why do you think windows is such an easy target. Years of accumulated mods issues and hidden defects.

And don't believe that BS about Linux that was posted! You don't believe me?, then look at the OS image size for Linux, pick one like Ubuntu. I looked a year or two back and my Ubuntu image was 700MB and I looked at windows 7 at the time and the image was nearly 10 GB... AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE LARGER! Let's ignore the massive windows development complexity issues related to its size and the size make it a resource hog and slow because the size says paths lengths are longer ...A LOT LONGER!. Did you know they measure "defects per number of lines of code". Just look at the size difference. You guessed it years of accumulated defects. Windows isn't an OS any more, its a house of cards collection of defects!

I got to love these astroturfers, all they can say is "hater" when confronted with reality. Their typical weak response to the truth! Its classic astroturfer name calling to try to stop accurate critique and knowledgeable people calling out PR propaganda.

Again, this is why: NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE!

baron99

Often on this blog is see a remark similar to: "the main reason windows has so many viruses is that it is so popular" or "that has nothing to do with code stability but mostly with the high market share", go UNchallanged! For the analytical please consider the size of the code involved in windows and compare to a linux version or other code bases (astroturfers can leave now, this is logic, I doubt you will be able to follow).

"Defects per line of code" is a software performance measure. In fact more code EQUALS more defects. You don't have to believe me please check and you'll find lots of support for this concept - except among astroturfers - consider the following reference if you like, for the uninformed this is a great read to get informed. It will give you some insight when you think about why windows is so bad (and it supports my previous post about reuse issues).

http://www.mayerdan.com/ruby/2012/11/11/bugs-per-line-of-code-ratio/

Ok, we know people complain about Windows being complex, a resource hog, being slow etc. and these symptoms are all in a big way tied to size. Size matters!

As a device manufacture, you can look at comparing OS's to their size. As an example, I'll refer back to my previous post. I had Ubuntu code in my machine that was 700MB and I looked at windows 7 at the time and the code for windows in another machine was nearly 10 GB... AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE LARGER! That means windows has much longer path lengths and an order of magnitude more bugs (that's 10x for the astroturfers still around). As a device manufacturer do I want to get in bed with that!

The conclusion is rather simple:

Windows gets viruses NOT because it is popular but because it is a decades long accumulation of CRAP!

Did you astroturfers get that!

Note to the analytical: Popularity and supposed susceptibility to viruses is just a microsoft talking point. ...more of the same BS PR.

Of course no manufacturer wants to put this complex, resource hog, slow buggy crap in their phone so the obvious conclusion also supported over and over again by Tomi's stats is that:

NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE! TA! DA! :-)

AndThisWillBeToo

@baron99
And how, pray tell, did MSFT manage to fit that 10GB Windows into my phone that has 8GB memory chip (5GB was free when I started using it)?
Or do we have to agree that while Windows Phone shares kernel with desktop (yes, MSFT has been very open on using same kernel in both), the OS is _not_ the same for all parts and drivers?

baron99

I didn't say anything about what fits where! I basically said that windows is a decades long accumulation of bugs? That's another reason why NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE!

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