Samsung Gives Away 24 Million Galaxy Customers? To Competitors. Worth 12 Billion dollars in 2015: How will 2015 Market play out the Galaxy design disaster

I wrote last week that the Galaxy redesign will annoy some customers that much that they will churn to rivals. Its fair then to say, so how bad will it be. I am ready to make my 2015 prediction for full year smartphone market and market shares of the major brands. I am of course incorporating all other info we have up to now and this will also be my official forecast for year 2015 (unless something massive happens during the year that might cause a revision).

The quick of it, is that Samsung gifts away 24 million customers to primarily LG and Sony but also Lenovo-Motorola and some other smartphone brands (not Apple, those customers who cry over waterproofing, a replacable battery or microSD slot will not find solace in an iPhone). Apple has seen the rivals essentially surrender in the race for an iPhone killer, the 2015 Mobile World Congress in Barcelona yielded no challenges to the iPhone 6 series, meaning Apple will have a 'relatively easy' year, or at least relatively easy early year. That means that while the industry continues to grow at the bottom end of the price pyramid, and Apple will lose market share again in 2015, that will be very modest. Total iPhone sales will again climb to a new record as will Apple revenues and profits. Chinese domestic brands like Xiaomi will not conquer the world this year as some silly pundits suggest. Their international growth will be just as painful and slow as its been for earlier Chinese brands Huawei, ZTE, Lenovo and TCL-Alcatel. Blackberry will continue to struggle. HTC continues to be only relevant in America. Lumia and Windows Phone continue to remain dead.

THE FORECAST 2015

To remind random visitors and those who rarely read this blog, I have been and continue to be the most accurate forecaster of the mobile industry. I was the first to give a regional split of iPhone sales when it launched in 2007. A forecast that was incredibly accurate. I instantly predicted Nokia's collapse when the Windows strategy was announced in 2011, many said that, but I was the first to say that the winner would be Samsung who would take Nokia's crown (at that time both Blackberry and iPhone sold more smartphones than Samsung). A very bold and useful forecast. When other 'experts' gave forecasts that Windows Phone would hit 15% to 20% and above market share by 2014, I was the most accurate both in short-term and long-term Windows Phone market development. I was the first to say Nokia-Microsoft Lumia smartphone market share would stall at 3% where its been now for the past 9 quarters straight never once breaching 4% level (currenty 2.7% for Q4 of 2014). I do not regularly issue catastrophy alerts for random market leaders of the handset space, but when I last did - Nokia's collapse of 2011 - no other analyst predicted how bad it would be and I also predicted remarkably accurately who would take the most of those spoils. No past performance by a forecaster is never a guarantee that the future will also be good, but I am sure now that Samsung will have a 'mini Elop moment' for the top end of the Galaxy line of its smartphones. There will be a rush to abandon the new 2015 Galaxy S6 and existing Galaxy users will flock to rival brands. I have modelled the full changes that this brings, plus the other inputs such as Apple's 6 Series of phablet-screen smartphone sales, the first full year of Motorola integration at Lenovo, the rise of Xiaomi etc, and I have a forecast for you, my dear readers:

TOMIAHONEN FORECAST 2015 SMARTPHONES (VS 2014)
RANK . BRAND . . . 2015 UNITS . MARKET SHARE 2015 . WAS 2014
1 . . . . Samsung . . . . . . . 325 M . . . . . 21% . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%
2 . . . . Apple . . . . . . . . . . 215 M . . . . . 14% . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
3 . . . . Lenovo-Motorola . 125 M . . . . . . 8% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
4T . . . Huawei . . . . . . . . .  90 M . . . . . . 6% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
4T . . . LG . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 M . . . . . . 6% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
4T . . . Xiaomi . . . . . . . . .  .90 M . . . . . . 6% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
7T . . . ZTE . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 M . . . . . . 5% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
7T . . . TCL-Alcatel-Palm . .70 M . . . . . . 5% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
9T . . . Coolpad . . . . . . . . . 55 M . . . . . . 4% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
9T . . . Sony . . . . . . . . . . .  55 M . . . . . . 4% . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Rest of Brands . . . . . . . . 365 M . . . . . 24%
TOTAL MARKET 2015 . 1,550 M smartphones (growth 19% from 2014)
Source TomiAhonen Consulting March 9, 2015
This table may be freely shared

I am confident within one point of market share for these brands this year. So for example Apple, I see some analysts have expectations of iPhone sales 2015 in the 205 million unit level. I say 215. That is up 11.6% from 2014 when iPhones sold 192.7M units. So obviously Apple will have yet another banner year and will exceed many early expectations. Samsung, even after the Galaxy customer give-away, will still see slight growth in its total sales from 2014 (3.5% growth from 314M). There is no way Apple passes Samsung to become the largest smartphone maker this year but while Apple's market share decline will only be slight, Samsung will see another year of alarming market share fall, this time from 24% to 21%. I expect by the end of the year (maybe even sooner) Samsung top management accept that the Galaxy redesign decisions (to abandon key competitive advantages) was a mistake and they will remedy that for 2016 (possibly even into Christmas sales period of 2015 which might see a surprise early launch of the Galaxy S7)

I am confident Lenovo(Motorola) will finish the year easily in third place. The first real fight is for 4th place, and I expect that to be tight between Huawei, LG and Xiaomi. Huawei has signalled it wants to focus on the top end of the smartphone market (good timing for the Galaxy give-away) but that means that it won't be able to grow as much as the market does, which is at the bottom. LG will have a banner year, Koreans are really competitive and fast movers. So LG will slot rather smoothly into the vacated Galaxy spot and take the lion's share of the abandoned customers partly because LG has a global retail reach. Xiaomi growth is stalling because it is approaching its limits in its home market of China, and growth abraod will be far slower. Their management has issued a target level of 100M smartphone sales but also warned that its an optimistic aggressive target and they might not hit that this year. They won't. But each of these three will finish in the 6% market share range of about 90M smartphones sold, who finishes 4th and who 6th will be the tight race till the end of December.

OS WAR IS SETTLED

So the OS wars are already settled. Android won. As Apple has 14% for 2015, and if we give 3% to the dead OS walking Windows (Windows 10 will not revive Microsoft in smartphones any more than Windows Phone 8.1 did better than Windows Phone 8 that didn't do any better than Windows Phone 7.5 that didn't do any better than Windows Phone 7 that didn't do better than Windows Phone 6.5 that didn't do better than Windows Mobile that didn't do better than... yeah. Once Microsoft Windows powered 12% of all smartphones sold and 8 out of the Top 10 biggest smartphone makers had at one point been Windows partners. Today only one Top 10 maker remains and their Windows offering is one token device per year anymore). That leaves us with Tizen, Firefox, Blackberry, Sailfish and the others. I'll say 2% for those. So we get this split for 2015:

TOMIAHONEN FORECAST SMARTPHONE OS PLATFORMS (new sales) 2015
Android . . . . 81%
iOS . . . . . . . 14%
Windows . . . . 3% (note platform is dying, app developers and handset manufacturers abandoning it)
Others . . . . . 2% (Tizen, Blackberry, Firefox, Sailfish and others)
Source TomiAhonen Consulting March 9, 2015 
This table may be freely shared 

As a side-note on Windows, Microsoft will end the pointless project of no life in it. The Lumia unit has not generated one quarter of a profit either under Nokia or Microsoft ownership. We learned last year that one third of all Lumia handsets that had shipped had never been activated so even the reported numbers on its relevance were overstating its miniscule share. App developers are now jumping away from the OS as have done most of the major handset brands who once supported Windows - every one of those went to Android. The most devastating case example is Vaio. Vaio is the old Sony PC unit that was sold last year. Vaio was supposed to launch Windows based smartphones. Vaio laptops of course run on Windows. They now face no 'internal' rivals on Android in the terms of Xperia smartphones. If ever there was one company who should find some kind of 'synergy' out of Windows on PC and smartphones, that is Vaio. Vaio recently announced they switched from Windows to Android. Their first smartphones are shipping soon. That is the ultimate proof of Windows being a dead platform.

So how is our deathwatch? I say set your countdown watch on the date Elop is removed from running the Microsoft hardware unit. The unit is a total train-wreck as we saw, in the first 10 months of Microsoft's ownership of the Nokia handset unit, they've already fired 2/3 of all the staff they brought over. So the 7.2 Billion dollar investment that Microsoft made in handsets, has seen two thirds of that already wiped out. Its a total mess. So, Nadella will probably try to give the Lumia unit one more chance, by removing Elop and giving the job to someone more competent. So that is where you set the countdown clock. 24 months from that date is when the Lumia unit is closed. Microsoft will probably keep running its Xbox gaming unit and maybe the Surface tablet but Lumia? Is dead. Windows 10 haha, Lumia is still dead. And later this year when Nokia - the real Nokia - first shows us their new Android smartphones (rumors are expecting the launch product to be named 1100 in honor of the bestelling handset of all time, specs expect a mid-price high-volume device) that will cause a final collapse of what remains of Lumia sales in the last remnants of the once mightly Nokia smartphone empire. But lets return to Samsung..


GALAXY CUSTOMER GIVE-AWAY: 24 MILLION CUSTOMERS

Samsung is headed for its Annus Horribilus and this is totally a self-inflicted wound. Samsung had heard for years that their flagship doesn't look sexy, especially that its materials were cheap. Plastic. So Samsung listened and gave us now a slick sexy Galaxy S6 in glass and metal. But in doing so, their head of design apparently got infected with iEnvy. Rather than give the world what Samsung stood for - leadership in tech - they went the 'full monty' iPhone envy with Galaxy S6, the minimalist route. Samsung bizarrely abandoned several of its competitive advantages which had defended its market share against iFans. The Samsung Galaxy S6 adds some cool tech yes, improved fingerprint scanner, Samsung Pay tech and its internal guts have gotten better too, CPU, memory etc. But what the f*ck? No more waterproof? No more removable battery either? For a global brand that is a leader in that part of the world where electrical supply is not reliable? And no microSD? Where Samsung is also the leading brand in markets where high speed wireless data networks are rare, unreliable and/or expensive. But Galaxy buyers all love the microSD slot that allows then to increase storage as needed - and swap data without expensive wireless data charges (not to mention security factors in many countries where the governments are prone to spying on their citizens...)

These were key differentiating arguments against the iPhone. You do remember, in 2014, Samsung sold 3 smartphones for every 2 iPhones. There is a huge installed base of loyal Samsung customers who love those features, and these features were among the main reasons many customers selected a Galaxy rather than an iPhone. We saw last year for example in the UK survey of smartphone owners by uSwitch about waterproofing, 67% of UK smartphone owners said they'd pick the phone that was waterproof over one that wasn't. This was the second most highly praised feature in that survey (only battery life came ahead). These are not meaningless specs that nobody cares about. For US readers, remember the UK market is more mature and advanced than the US market and has a higher adoption rate of smartphones and a far longer history of consumers using smartphones. So this is a very relevant knowledgable user base in the advanced 'Western' markets.

But now the Galaxy S6 abandons three major features of differentiation while it becomes slimmer and sexier and tries to appeal to those buyers who prefer a hot-looking phone, rather than one with a lot of tech in it. Wait a moment, pinheads at Samsung! Those customers have ALREADY bought an iPhone and they will not abandon their iLove for a pretty Korean phone on Android that does roughly the same thing. If you intend to steal iCustomers, you need to be better than the iPhone. Good luck with that..

The Samsung Galaxy S6 will not be a sales disaster. It will find plenty of good reviews. It suffers most, however, that within the Android family, there are PLENTY of very similar rivals that didn't do that suicidal move of abandoning key competitive advantages. One, there will be some who will now compare the Galaxy S6 and the Galaxy S5, and buy the much-maligned S5 instead. These will be severely discounted and are existing stock, so these will not help boost Samsung shipment numbers or revenues or profits - but they WILL eat out of the projected S6 market expectations at Gangnam,

But far worse are the rivals. If you want a thin, sexy, glass-on-both-sides pocket rectangle on Android, you can buy the Galaxy S6 or in the same store there is a Sony Xperia Z3. The camera is better on the Z3. The screen is larger on the Z3. The Z3 is waterproof and the Z3 has a microSD slot. And against this the S6 offers what? A payment system that isn't used by anyone yet, and an improved fingerprint scanner that nobody uses anyway. I think I'll take the Z3 instead...

Same for HTC, LG, Huawei, Lenovo, Motorola. Almost all Android flagships have microSD slots, most have removable batteries and many are waterproof. And many look better than the old Galaxy S5 and some arguably look better than the new Galaxy S6. Some have better cameras or bigger screens etc..In 2013 Samsung sold 311 million smartphones. Those buyers are very happy with the brand, Samsung has a high loyalty rate (not as high as iPhone obviously) and in some surveys like the latest customer satisfaction survey in the USA, Samsung actually scored a sliver above Apple (partly due to the marketing disaster at Apple of the U2 album fiasco). Those three hundred millions mostly satisfied Samsung customers will walk into a handset store this year wanting to replace their Samsung with a newer smartphone, preferrably a Samsung and as we tend to upgrade our phones when we replace them many of those will want to see the Galaxy flagship (the S6). Its very possible they will greatly like the looks on that new phone. It will not produce new sales for Samsung, these are EXISTING Galaxy owners. But it may convince them to renew their brand purchase.

However, MANY who look at the phone will be horrified to find that the S6 has abandoned the removable battery (for many especially heavily travelling users and those living in the Emerging World the removable battery is a show-stopper. They will not even consider the S6 when they find out). Others dont' care at all about removable batteries (especially in the USA). Some will look for the microSD slot - because they have a large library of digital content - on microSD cards !!! (these are often customers who don't own a PC, their smartphone IS their personal computer). Movies, music, pictures, videos etc... What? No microSD slot? Hey, salesguy, where is the microSD slot on this Galaxy S6. Oh, sir, it doesn't have a microSD slot but they do have cloud storage. F*ck that, show me a proper smartphone with a microSD slot. Does this Xperia have one? How is the HTC or the LG...

And the waterproofing. Some who bought their past smartphone that had waterproofing, were attracted to that feature, maybe using their phone in the shower or bath or even by the pool. Shooting occasionally pictures and videos in the water. Others don't care. Some who didn't care, were suddenly reminded of that feature when some water accident occurred and the smartphone survived. Those customers will love the feature and if they had it before on the Galaxy - or had seen it advertised in the months leading up to this new purchase, they wanted it. Those will walk away from the S6.

Against these losses are the wins of customers who don't care about top tech features (a Samsung strong suit) and prefer ultimate looks and a minimalist tech suite. Those are called iCustomers. They have already bought iPhones for iYears and professs iLove regularly at annual iGatherings of new iUnveilings, often standing in line for all iNight. Those customers love the way iPhones and all things i are fully integrated, so the App Store is perfection, the iTunes is the best, and so forth and so forth. They know Apple and they can see a pretender. If putting an Android in two layers of glass was the key to getting Apple's market share - Sony Xperia now should be as big as the iPhone. Duh! What morons are in charge at Samsung?

So, the brand known for best tech suite suddenly abandons all that, but remains on Android, charges astronomical prices and gives us a lame Xperia clone? Well, most tech fans think of Samsung as a 'clone of Sony' and for years Samsung's product portfolio were slightly lesser-build quality copies of Sony products.. Now that holds for the S6. This obviously is not an iPhone. If you want the real thing, instead of buying a Galaxy S6 you buy the Sony Xperia Z3 (or Z4) and you get waterproofing and microSD slots in that as well (plus a better camera and bigger screen). So Samsung looked at the competition, Sony Xperia Z3 - and gave us a bad copy of that.

Customers who own Galaxies who want to replace a flagship or upgrade from mid-range Galaxy, will look at the S6. If they don't care about waterproofing, microSD or removable battery - then they are very inclined to buy the new S6. This will be a subset of current Galaxy owners. Part of those will be disappointed, some so severely, they will not buy the S6 but will buy something else. On Android. Will the S6 win over iPhone users. No. The argument that 'we have the biggest screen' that Samsung said about the Note in the past, or 'waterproof' last year, those are things that win customers. But if a customer is upset over microSD or removable battery or waterproofing, then the iPhone is no solution as it doesn't offer any of those. The disappointed customers won't flock to Apple. But they will pick another Android.

In the Emerging World - where Samsung sells 65% of its smartphones (!!!) the deficiencies will be glaring. In the US market where Samsung sells 15% of its smartphones, these cosmetic changes will be beloved and the relevance of the missing parts will mostly be thought of as trivial. The early tech press reviews will not understand how damaging the effect will be. Again, trust me on this, I study the GLOBAL market and hae been the most accurate forecaster of this industry from the birth of the smartphone (a decade before the iPhone revolutionized it - and I was the most accurate forecaster of how much the iPhone was going to revolutionize this industry - before the first iPhone was even sold back in 2007).

RETURNS NIGHTMARE AND LIKELY WATERGATE

So it only gets worse over time. Many who buy the Galaxy S6 owned a previous flagship Galaxy and didn't notice in the store that the microSD is gone, or the repacable battery is no more, or its no longer waterproof. The microSD issue might not come up for weeks, even months, until suddenly some files need to be swapped or the phone starts to get filled up. And the owner starts to look for the slot where is the hole for the microSD? What, there isn't one? There's gotta be one, it has to be somewhere, Samsung always had this... Or maybe its your kids or wife or friend who notice it, who occasionally borrowed the phone or wanted to move files or whatever. Same with battery. But worst is the waterproofing.

Samsung advetised its Galaxy to be waterproof. We saw those ads. So then one buys the new Galaxy S6 somewhere in the Spring or Summer of 2015, fully confident, of course its waterproof. And then takes it to the bathtub or shower - and disaster. A water related disaster. This is a literal 'watergate'. So consumers return phones to Samsung repair centers - angrily demanding it be fixed under warranty - no warranty protection of course as the phone is not waterproof. They get angry and have a scene at the store who sold the phone and pull out old Samsung ads about waterproofing and some go the extra step fo suing Samsung for false promises. There will be instances, maybe only a few, maybe many, of where dumb ingorant naive customers drop their Galaxy S6 phones into water somewhere and ruin them. And there will be a backlash. Consumer advocates demand that Samsung run advertising to clearly say the Galaxy S6 is NOT waterproof. This is a marketing disaster. Watergate.

Now, some new buyers will notice their fave feature is missing on the first or second day with the new Galaxy S6. And they will rush to return it to the store and make an exchange. They have a very good case because past Samsung tech specs clearly said microSD and removable battery and waterproof. Its a valid argument by the buyer that they expected this and because Samsung no longer has that feature, they want their money back. The store won't want to give the money back - they will then SWAP the Galaxy S6 to an equivalent smartphone - on Android - with those features... and ca-Ching! Sale for Sony. Sale for LG. These returns will almost invariably result in more sales to Sony and LG.

But now the sales reps LEARN. That Samsung Galaxy S6 is a disaster phone that results in astronomical return rates. The reason sales reps hate returns is that they already made one sale for which they earned a commission. Now they have to listen to the customer bitching whats wrong. Then take that opened box back, and make a NEW sales, of a similar-price phone - so no new commission - and then go to the back room and do the return paperwork on the returned Galaxy. So three times the amount of work for no extra money. They hate this. So as soon as the pattern emerges, the sales reps change strategy  They do EXACTLY as they did with early Nokia Lumia sales which had massive returns by unsatisfied customers. They stop selling Galaxy and PUSH customers to rival phones. Oh dear customer, did you know the Galaxy is no longer waterproof. Let me show you this Xperia instead. That way the sales rep gets his satisfied customer and no returns to worry about. The sales reps will make VERY clear to all Galaxy buyers that this is no longer waterproof, it does not have a microSD slot and doesn't have a remvable battery. But if you want a removable battery and microSD instead, let me show you this LG...

VALUE IS 12 BILLION DOLLARS

So I estimate the damage to Galaxy sales is 24 million customers abandoned and gifted almost all to other Android rivals (a slight bit goes to the iPhone). Note these are the most expensive Galaxy customers, the premium flagship buyers. The value of this loss is over 12 Billion dollars out of Samsung annual sales. And a huge cut out of profits (what little of those remain). The damage is so bad, its conceivable the handset unit plunges temporarily into loss-making for one or two quarters this year.

But Samsung CEO, ahoy! You are looking at a loss of 3% of market share. You are going to lose 24 million customers forever, going to ANDROID rivals, not the iPhone. This Galaxy S6 will not win you customers who are iPhone users. But you will see an erosion of 12 BILLION DOLLARS of revenues. That is 13 TRILLION Korean Won !!! That is now destroyed by this moronic move by whoever was the clown who designed the S6 and decided to abandon waterproofing, removable battery and microSD slot. That 'executive' should be fired. Get a proper designer who understands differentiation. Your first question to the new hire is does that person adore the iPhone. Did you see what the last person inflected with iEnvy did to a global smartphone powerhouse just four years ago? Stephen Elop at Nokia tried to turn Nokia with 30% market share into an iPhone with the Lumia series. They now have 3% and have not made one quarter of a profit. Is that what you want for Samsung?

If the glass-sandwitch iPhone clone was the way to beat Apple, Sony's Xperia would now outsell the iPhone. How is that working for them? 3% market share and making a loss. Is that what you want for Samsung?

Fire the moron who made that decision! That is treason. He abandoned competitive advantages that Samsung had built for years. YEARS. Wasted and now GIFTED to the rivals! Fire him! Any smart executive at Samsung would have created their iPhone clone as an INFERIOR brand, like the A series. A minimalist Galaxy, the A6, with looks, specs, prices similar to the iPhone. But then do the Galaxy S6, the Samsung corporate global flagship, what the whole company is identified with - not only in great materials - BUT WITH SUPERIOR TECH. Do what Apple cannot do. Show the word there is a reason they are buying Samsung, it gives you the best. That is what the S6 needed. To release the Galaxy S6 without waterproofing, microSD and removable battery in 2015, is like Mercedes releasing its 2015 S Class without airbags, anti-lock brakes and traction control (aka ESP) !!! These are features S Class owners EXPECT and only a madman at Mercedes would strip those from the Sonderklasse.

12 Billion dollars. 13 Trillion won is wiped out this year. From the most profitable end of Galaxy. And the sales and marketing of the whole Galaxy series now faces new headwinds and sees erosion to Sony, LG, Huawei, ZTE, Motorola-Lenovo, Xiaomi and others.So the marketing costs at Samsung will skyrocket. The whole company is headed for an Annus Horribilus

Now, Samsung are VERY competitive and smart people. I do believe they will monitor this model, have their internal panic when the numbers tank, and they will RUSH a Galaxy S7 to the market fast, that will re-introduce waterproofing, microSD slot and removable battery. They are that good, Samsung might be able to get that S7 into the stores by Christmas. But its too late then, their market share will fall to 21% for the full year 2015.

WHO GAINS

So who wins? LG is the fastest and biggest global brand to react and pounce. They had the fortune of not annoucing their flagship at the Mobile World Congress last week in Barcelona. If they are smart - and I think they are - they will ensure their 2015 update to their flagship, expected to be called the G4, will offer at least part of the things Samsung now abandoned. So keeping the removable battery and microSD slot. And if LG are smart and fast - Koreans, they are fast - they could create a waterproof version of the G4 - or it might already have been in the design already (the current G3 is not waterproof but has removable battery and microSD slot for 128GB memory cards).

The current LG G3 is a weakling in the races especially with a puny camera at 13mp (Galaxy S6 has 16mp as did the S5 already last year). The rumors expect this camera to be upgraded at least to 16mp and possibly to 20mp. The Xperia Z3 has a 20mp camera. Rumors suggest the G4 will be done in metal t look more sexy (good thing, as long as they don't do the same mistake as Samsung did by cutting features at the same time). And the G4 may have a fingerprint scanner. If LG give us the G4 with upgraded camera, fingerprint scanner, metal body, but keeping the removable battery and microSD slot, we have one of the winners already. And if the G4 doesn't do waterproofing (it might) then I really do expect LG to notice this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to have their 'Razr Moment' and they rush a new phone, perhaps as a variation of the G4 or maybe as something totally differently-branded, like say LG Legacy, which is a proper new superphone-flagship. Like how Audi exploded to the luxury sedan/limousine market with the S8 including Audi's Quattro drive tech, and suddenly Audi was a legitimate contender vs Mercedes S Classe and BMW's 7 Series and Jaguar and others.

So LG I know you're listening. Do it! Give us the 'Legacy' with a massive screen something around 6 inches (bigger than iPhone 6 Plus), a top-tier 20mp main camera, an 'amazing' selfie cam like 8mp wide-angle with LED flash, plus of course removable battery, microSD, waterproofing - in a pretty metal case (not glass back for fingerprints). And the fingerprint scanner and wireless charging yeah. And yes, brand it something different from G4. Something 'superior'. This is your Razr Moment. Samsung is giving away 24 million Galaxy S class customers, who all paid about 600 dollars for their smartphones last time. Charge them 700 dollars for the Legacy but give them the best tech that is out there. Make this LG's banner year. Rush this phone out fast, announce it in the summer and make this the must-have Android phone of the Autumn of 2015 and watch your profits soar. But this 'LG Legacy' concept has to be CLEARLY a step up from the G3 and G4. Like how a BMW 7 series is CLEARLY a more expensive car than the 5 Series. And price it so too, charge them 700 dollars for it. Trust me on this, if you offer the disappointed Samsung owners an Android Korean smartphone that looks good, has top specs, matches the Galaxy on most aspects but includes now in 2015 the removable battery, the microSD slot and waterproofing - if you put those three things into your next true flagship (and better camera and bigger screen than Galaxy S6) you will have a winner and you'll take up to half of the 24 million customers that Samsung is giving away this year. Only you LG are fast enough to execute this strategy now this year. Because you are Korean. Balli-balli!

Sony! Rumor is that the Xperia Z4 will abandon the microSD slot? Don't do it! DELAY the launch and reinsert the microSD slot. This is not the year to abandon microSD slot. Because the Xperia Z series is already waterproof, you are in the driver's seat to steal disappointed Galaxy customers right now. Don't make the same mistake they are making in Gangnam. If you really want to leave out the microSD slot, do that next year. Not now. The waterproofing of Xperia Z4 will help you win a 'windfall' of unexpected high-paying premium customers already from Galaxy. Don't abandon your competitive advantage NOW. Rather delay and redesign that item back into the Z4. Don't make this mistake. But in any case Sony will steal customers from Galaxy partly because the Galaxy S6 is obviously a clone not of the iPhone but of the Xperia Z3. Both are double-glass sandwitches (a design Apple left behind after the iPhone 5) and as Sony sells in most countries, the typical store will have both to offer side-by-side. The existing Galaxy owner will note the larger screen and better camera on the Xperia. But the existing Galaxy owner will very often be swayed by the waterproofing and microSD slot (but lament that the battery is not replacable on the Xperia). You go do that test side-by-side in the store, I betcha you will pick the Xperia. Sony will pick up a windfall of new high-price premium customers this year from Samsung. How many, depends on two things - good availablility of Xperia Z4 handsets in the stores worldwide - and whether they kept the microSD slot. But Sony should have a banner year back at Xperia now. Ramp up the production!

Lenovo-Motorola has already targeted China return for Motorola brand to be their big move this year. They have their first Moto brand smartphones being heavily marketed and this is all good. They should be dong well in any case. The Lenovo flagship Vibe Z2 Pro is already a pure iPhon-a-clone and won't be able to steal Samsung customers disappointed in the specs of the Galaxy S6. The Vibe Z2 Pro doesn't do microSD or removable battery or waterproofing. The Motorola flagship, the 2014 edition of the Moto X is similarly not offering anything to disappointed Galaxy owners, it doesn't do microSD waterproofing or removable battery. Now Lenovo! You want to become the biggest smartphone maker one day? Now is your chance to steal some of the most valuable customers on the planet. Rush out one flagship-class model for later this year, brand it on Motorola, call it something Moto-ish like Moto Rebl or something, and put in those three features Samsung just abandoned. Give it otherwise top specs at least 16mp camera at least 5.6 inch screen and prices it around 500-600 dollars and watch you Motorola unit rush into profits by the end of the year when the Rebl gets press that Motorola has finally found back its mojo powered by Lenovo. Lenovo you are big enough to do this, you are late into the game because your current flagships on both brands are already without those three features but you can do that and it will sell you millions and bring in some precious Samsung Galaxy premium customers. Put this as your top priority now, for late 2015 launch. And run a sister model on the Lenovo brand.

The HTC M9 was just announced. Its not waterproof but does have a microSD slot. No removable battery. Camera 20mp but screen is smallish for current flagships. As HTC is only relevant in America and the US market is the one where Samsung will bleed the least in terms of customers wanting or caring about the three features, and the most attractive - waterproofing - is not in the HTC M9, there is no big boost to HTC. It won't return to the Top 10 in this year of the big Galaxy Giveaway.

Huawei has its flagship as the Ascend P8 which has been announced. It doesn't do waterproofing nor have a removable battery. It does have a microSD slot. In specs its not the top of the rivals so I think its gains from Samsung will be modest. The other brands are so small or regional they won't matter. In case of Blackberry or Microsoft(Nokia) Lumia, it would also mean changing from Android to a dying OS platform, so these two brands won't benefit from Samsung's stumble.

With some regional brands, the Solos and Xolos, the Karbonns and Micromaxes, the MiPhones and MyPhones, there will be some opportunistic 'Galaxy killers' that will happen to have those three specs or two of the three, and will capitalize on domestic sales and cause Samsung to see alarming falls in some random national markets and very likely India the worst, because so many local smartphone brands are competing there heavily, adding also India-specific needs like Dual SIM etc.. Hey Micromax, Karbonn and Spice - you tend to design your flagship around the iPhone. One of you, look at the Galaxy S5. Add those missing features now and launch your superphone. Add waterproofing, microSD slot and removable battery (and dual SIM etc). Put a 20mp shooter to the front and 8mp selfiecam and price it at 59,900 Indian Rupee yes more than the Galaxy S5 or S6 (950 US dollars). And watch how tech-gadget-mad India premium customers will jump away from Samsung to you. Then offer a few lesser-spec devices that alos have those three core features, but downgrade the cameras and screen size for the normal price 40,000 INR and 30,000 INR premium smartphones for your market. This is the year to do it when Samsung fell. Don't leave these customers to go to rivals.

Thats how I see it and what the major brands should do. Samsung gives away 24 million of its best premium customers in 2015, on a totally self-induced error, a self-inflicted wound, of tech change that was both unnecessary and backwards. 311 million existing Loyal Samsung customers already on Android who like their removable batteries, microSD slots and waterproofing, will come to handset stores this year expecting to buy another Samsung. Of those who consider the flagship price models, they will see the Galaxy S6 and be stunned to find some of their fave tech is now missing. But in the same store there will be rival Android flagships of also familiar brands and now Sony and LG will pick up a lot of sales. Also some other brands will pick up pieces. And if Lenovo-Motorola moves fast, they can just about get in on this action before Samsung recovers from its mistake. They are too smart and numbers-oriented at Gangnam to let this fester for two or three years like it did at Nokia, so by 2016 this mistake will be corrected by Samsung Galaxy. That is after 24 million customers were lost and 12 Billion dollars of highly profitable premium smartphone business was gifted to the competors.

Well, at least this year will mean that there are more profitable smartphone makers than just Apple and Samsung haha. And Apple can laugh all the away to the bank. If iPhone salls 215 million units powered by the iPhone 6 class higher prices and profit margins, gosh this is gonna be a banner year at Cupertino, PS Apple, if you really want to screw Samsung for their eternal battles with you, why not do the waterproofing on the iPhone 6S new flagship of this year September launch? That would really piss of the Koreans haha..

Comments

[Pekka]

I agree with you that Samsung will lose market share. But in my case they will lose more than your prediction.
The point though it is from low end of the market, not high end. The galaxy s6 will be a great succes.

Than I had to laugh at your comment about Sonys camera. Every review I seen of the xperia z line rank the camera as garbage.

http://www.gsmarena.com/camera_shootout-review-1104p8.php

Z2 tested against several others phone. Dead last in ranking.

http://www.phonearena.com/news/Samsung-Galaxy-Note-4-wins-our-blind-camera-comparison-iPhone-6-is-distant-second_id61676

Z3 tested in blind camera test, ranked dead last again.

http://www.theverge.com/2014/10/3/6887063/sony-xperia-z3-and-z3-compact-review

The verge review the z3 phone and said the camera was garbage.
"Maybe I’m just particularly sloppy when taking photos with my phone, but I find myself having to capture multiple shots with the Xperia phones to make sure that one of them will be good. It’s typically an autofocus issue, particularly when shooting close to the subject, or motion blur induced by the movement of my hands."

Second point, every review I seen of xperia z line says the screen is garbage. So sony make garbage screen, garbage camera and Tomi says they are good :)

[zlutor]

@Tomi: "Apple has seen the rivals essentially surrender in the race for an iPhone killer" - nononono! Dont' forget the coming new Lumia flagship - featuring killer OS WP10 - killing the iPhone finally. :D :D :D :D :D

Yet an other messiah device coming with yet another messiah version of WP healing all maladies currently they have...
We can hear those promises since WP7.0... :(

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Pekka

ok, this is not a TEST of those features. I am talking about normal customers in the store. They take the Xperia Z3 and compare it to the Galaxy S6 - and the screen is NOTICABLY bigger. Side-by-side. And as both have extremely many pixels (past retina display) they will both seem extremely sharp. Not enough to pick one over the other, whatever a test may tell us. Same for camera. The random customer in the store will not shoot pictures on both phones and compare. They will look at the specs, see the Galaxy S6 has a 16mp camera and the Xperia a 20mp camera and will know, the 20mp has more magapixels. More is better seems like logical choice FOR THE CONSUMER in the store. This is before we take the RETURNS by disappointed Galaxy S6 buyers who notice only AT HOME that the new Galaxy no longer has a microSD slot or is no longer waterproof or no longer has a removable battery. As those customers start to RETURN phones, now the sales rep learns his lesson. Don't let them buy Galaxies.

Then the sales rep will start to HIGHLIGHT these differences ALWAYS if the customer wants a Galaxy S6. But did you know that the Galaxy is no longer waterproof and they no longer have the microSD slot. Oh, can I show you this Sony Xperia which is waterproof and has the microSD slot - but also has a bigger screen and better camera, and no, it doesn't cost more...

So yeah, I don't doubt that you find camera reviews who don't rank the Xperia 20mp Sony camera with autofocus etc the best in the market. It is by far not the worst - it was only worst of those few flagships compared and there are PLENTY of far lesser flagship cameras out there that don't even get into tests. Screen? When I had my Xperia Z1, at that time it seemed like an awesome bright and sharp screen but I have not done any tests of it and don't know how well the later models have performed. But in terms of the only thing the consumer notices in the store, when the two phones are side-by-side - is the SIZE. Sony wins.

Now Pekka, do you agree that if a customer is upset at Samsung for abandoning waterproof/microSD and in that condition, is shown a Sony Xperia Z3 (or Z4 presumably even better) - that customer who really liked either waterproof or microSD or both - will find the Xperia compelling and is very easily persuaded that the camera is better too - because megapixels - and the screen is 'better' being bigger. And these are not rubbish tech that fails when you take it home (in the style of HTC often disappointing after the fact) Sony build quality is excellent etc. So the random consumer non-techie customer who actually wanted waterproof and/or microSD and is disappointed that the S6 doesn't have those - will find the Xperia Z3/Z4 the most obvious alternate - and many perhaps most - will not buy a Galaxy S6 if that Sony Xperia Z3/Z4 is shown to them side-by-side (some will however then go see other options and may buy an LG or some other phone, perhaps even make that long-considered jump to try the iPhone)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Gonzo]

I am holding on any predictions, in the past Samsung successfully cloned the iPhone and they did fantastically well, as time passed they added a few features to really be different. It didn't work and they lost the market segment that maters, the message was clear, the phone felt short of sales estimates by 40% ( if this is what samsung reported…. expect more)

So back to square 1 - If it works for Apple if might well work for us too!, and they might be right again following a copycat strategy, the reason is the buyer, those who spend sweet $$$ on a phone are picky and demanding, I have the impression that this phone can do better than the previous one or at last resist the downfall better as people clearly disliked the S5.

Remember when apple eliminated the ….. long list and everyone said that … long list ? Well sales kept rising in unit terms

If you can't beat them… join them. Welcome back Samsung to Apple strategy.

[Pekka]

Tomi
I agree if the customers are disappointed that the galaxy s6 lacked any of those features, they might return the phone and trade it for an LG or Sony phone. Though I say they are very few folks no matter what your opinion polls say. Apple already showed this.

Second about people walking into a store and buying a phone. I'm not a master on this but logical thing says people will always go with design first before specs. Also they probably gotten advice by someone which phone to look at.

[Tester]

If there should be one rule in business it has to be:

Don't let Americans make product decisions for the rest of the world. They will always fail to do it right.

The Samsung Galaxy S6 is a prime example of this error in thinking, and so far all opinions here trying to defend this mess also seem to be deadlocked in the American mindset that has been influenced by too many Apples.

Yes, the S6 will definitely find some new customers, but no matter how hard you American ignorants try to deny it, there will be many, many customers for which the change is a killer-criteria. People who won't buy a phone without replaceble battery or people who don't want to endlessly copy data around, or just people whose phone occasionally does get wet.

Long term these people are far more loyal customers than fans of shiny cases. The latter will abandon you as soon as your product doesn't suit their tastes anymore, they can be very fickle - disregarding the fact that most own an iPhone anyway.

But the customers which value actually useful features will return year after year, if your product continues to give them what they want. Now that the product doesn't give them what they want - they leave. I can't say much about Tomi's 24 million but it looks like a good enough number as any. These customers are GONE(!!!), they won't bring Samsung any more money, and no retarded defending of feature removal by some clueless people from the other side of the Atlantic is going to change any of this.

[AndThisWillBeToo]

Sony just announced layoffs in Sweden (read: Ericsson handsets remainings). I doubt they'll grow market share.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Catriona

You're still new here. Go re-read the post (completely) you'll see immediately why I deleted your commment.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

zlutor - haha good one

Gonzo - i hear you but Apple is NOT the leader. Samsung smartphone sales are 50% BIGGER than total iPhone. So Samsung would abandon those customers who appreciate what Samsung offers - and only pursue those that are attracted to Apple? That is madness. Its like if in PCs HP abandoned the enteprise PC market and went for the consumer and marketing-oriented/advertising oriented Mac market haha.. FAR smaller, thats lunacy. If Apple was bigger, that would make sense but Samsung is FAR bigger than Apple in smartphones. So this is a 'strategy' that is a guaranteed collapse of sales, don't you agree? But lastly - these are not 'mutually exclusive' issues. Sony has shown you can easily do a premium smartphone flagship that is both waterproof and has microSD slot - while being slim and sexy, with dual glass and metal design. THAT is what Samsung should have done. Add the design sexiness WITHOUT abandoning its EXISTING loyal customers.

Pekka - fair point. I may well be off on my estimate and the damage be smaller. However I stand by my predictions and this is very carefully calculated number, so don't be shocked when in February 2016 we count Samsung sales and find it at 21% market share.... But while we discuss this, consider this. You wrote 'Apple already showed this' that there isn't that big a market who care about those things. Well? Samsung outsells iPhone smartphones by 3 to 2. The market who thinks 'the Samsung way' is 50% BIGGER than those who like the minimalist Apple way of doing things. Isn't that true by the numbers of just these two brands compared (actually far larger difference when we factor all phones, as Apple only has 15% market share in 2014). So 'most' smartphone buyers do not select the minimalist sexiest slimmest smartphone of least features.

Tester - perfect point! Totally agree. This is an American viewpoint that ignores customer needs of the rest of the world where 87% of all smartphones are sold (will be nearly 90% this year 2015).

AndThis - that has NOTHING to do with MARKET success in 2015. That is management reacting to LAST YEAR's sales. Now, it may impact sales yes, but consider that in most stores where Galaxy S6 is sold, a Sony Xperia Z4 will be also sold. And existing loyal customers will notice - or be told - that the S6 no longer is waterproof and doesn't have microSD. And design-wise its double-glass-sandwitch design. Isn't the OBVIOUS first comparison then - for those customers who are disappointed, whether that is 24 million or 2 million or 100 million Samsung users - the first choice in that store - to compare - will be the Xperia. As the Xperia Z4 also has a bigger screen and better camera (in terms of megapixels) this will result in more Sony sales - than what Sony had EXPECTED this year, based on their current market evaluation - before they saw the Galaxy S6. If Sony was expecting to sell 45M or 50M Xperia smartphones in 2015 - this year WILL be better. By how much depends partly on the specs and price of Z4 and partly on how well they can keep those in the stores worldwide (Sony doesn't sell in all markets anymore). I do expect LG to take the lion's share of the Galaxy customer give-away but Sony to be second best in that bonanza. Do you see AndThis that the layoffs now announced has nothing to do with customers making in-store comparisons from April when the S6 hits the stores?

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Huber]

@Pekka:

"Though I say they are very few folks no matter what your opinion polls say. Apple already showed this."

The problem is that the "look how shiny my phone is" style-over-substance customers prefer the iPhone anyways. There is not necessarily a place for a second big player in this niche.

"Second about people walking into a store and buying a phone. I'm not a master on this but logical thing says people will always go with design first before specs."

It depends - if I want a waterproof phone, I won't buy a non-waterproof one because it's shiny.

Or if I have an SD card with 128GB of music I want to reuse, I won't buy a phone without this feature, no matter how shiny it is.

Or if I own an SGS4 with a bigger third-party battery, I won't buy the SGS6 with its tiny non-replacable battery.

I think it is wrong to think all customer's could be swayed by Apple-like features - I am a customer who doesn't buy Apple products because of their restrictions, _NOT_ because of their price. I mostly buy more than average expensive devices, but I expect lots of features in return.

"Second point, every review I seen of xperia z line says the screen is garbage."

I own an Xperia Z2 tablet, it's a very well-made device. The camera _IS_ garbage, but this is unimportant on a tablet. The screen is absolutely gorgeous, it has a good build quality and very good battery runtime.

Regarding Sony's phones, they don't have bad displays or bad cameras. The Z2 and Z3 fared well in serious tests. The verge, phone arena and gsmarena are not exactly sites I would base a buying decision on.

[abdul muis]

@Tomi

"Lenovo-Motorola...........
Give it otherwise top specs at least 16mp camera at least 5.6 inch screen and prices it around 500-600 dollars and watch you Motorola unit"

5.6" screen doesn't compete with Galaxy S6. 5.6" compete with SAMSUNG TOP OF THE LINE 5.7" GALAXY NOTE!!!
In case you didn't know Galaxy Note 4. It's a 5.7" phone with removeable battery & SD Card slot
And wait... There's also Samsung Galaxy A7 & E7 with 5.5" screen. So samsung has 3 phone around 5.5", with 3 price point.

About HTC M9. You propose to other brand to have bigger screen... "at least 5.6". HTC M9 has smaller screen than Galaxy S6, and smaller resolution. And from many review about HTC vs. samsung such as HTC M7 vs. Galaxy SIII, HTC M8 vs. Galaxy S4, HTC battery life is NOT really good.

As for Huawei, their problem is updating the OS to the latest version. They very slow at this.

BTW.
article:
http://www.sammobile.com/2015/03/09/removing-the-galaxy-s6s-battery-takes-more-effort-than-youll-be-willing-to-put-in/
the document of S6:
http://downloadcenter.samsung.com/content/UM/201503/20150303094626458/SM-G920F_UM_EU_Lollipop_Eng_Rev.1.0_150302.pdf

Tomi,
Perhaps it would be more useful to know if people were moving away from removable replacement battery to Power Bank. Because power bank can charge any phone. so if you have i.e Nokia E7, Xperia Z1 & Samsung Galaxy Note. You can have 1 power bank to charge 3 phone, or you need 3 battery for 3 phone.

and for those who don't mind thick phone, and want more battery life can use this kind:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2poKI8vufZo

Thanks Tomi.

[AndThisWillBeToo]

@Tomi
I know you say Samsung decreases market share from 24% to 21% but I fail to see how that 21% is "down". In Q4 2014 Samsung had 20.1% market share according to your numbers. So aren't you expecting Samsung to grow market share this year with their new inferior Galaxy S? You have in the past said that we can evaluate Samsung QoQ as they do not have the iPhone seasonality so I assume it is fair to compare Q4 to full year too.

What comes to Sony, please allow a bit profitability discussion, I will not use profits as a comparison metric. Sony already said they want to sell their unprofitable smartphone unit. Then they lay off people from handsets. As that is a sign of company in trouble (Sony turned profit only one quarter last year), I assume they still have trouble running their business profitably.
That much for profitability. For all that we know about Sony's smartphone offering, they couldn't shine with it last year and this year the competition is tougher. All the rumors about Z4 indicate modest improvement (including a thinner phone, i.e. worse battery life and most likely no MicroSD card). Hence I say Sony will not grow market share in 2015.

[Gonzo]

@Tomi
Gonzo - i hear you but Apple is NOT the leader. Samsung smartphone sales are 50% BIGGER than total iPhone.

Totally agree Tomi, I once asked you to try finding solid data to compare oranges to oranges, to what we compare the iphone 5S, 6 and 6plus ? The problem Samsung is trying to address is how to compete head to head to those 3 iphones, same price, same or similar specs, same packaging and shinny

The money is right there not selling more phones, Samsung now understands that keeping market share just to be the biggest ( remember Compaq?) does not always pays off. They need profits ASAP, they need premium phones people "love" and value for things irrelevant to many here, no one needs a 50 megapixel camera, people are happy, very happy with a camera that does a great job, that's it and if they get what they need and works well out of the box …. even better.

And having a vertical strategy seems to work better, 98% of people can care less about "open" … if 50% of mobile users are women, how many have you seen discussing here or even thinking about android openness so they can re program the phone? Yes I know, some one here will let us know that know ONE girl like that… people who happily pay ice$$$ want something that never ever makes them even consider reading a manual or doing much work handling the phone, it all works smoothly … that is the user experience, unbeatable ( for now proven) hard to replicate ( totally proven) …. yes I know, they are lazy … so are those that drive a cart while playing golf … but they too pay the green fee.

[Tester]

@AndThisWillBeToo:

" All the rumors about Z4 indicate modest improvement (including a thinner phone, i.e. worse battery life and most likely no MicroSD card). Hence I say Sony will not grow market share in 2015."

Pathetic. Samsung tries to go Apple, Sony, too, why do these idiots piss all over their (formerly) loyal customers? What is it that makes American-influenced style over substance trump any common sense?

The only winner here can be Apple. It seems that Android is slowly but steadily abandoning all its strengths it has over Apple and becoming just as restrictive and annoying as iOS already is, and if it finally catches up, nobody with money will buy it anymore. What are these fools smoking...?

[Spawn]

@Gonzo

> The problem Samsung is trying to address is how to compete head to head to those 3 iphones

You are correct in they try to do so. That *IS* the problem. Apple is *NOT* Samsungs main competitor. And it will not be Apple taking all the lost customers from Samsung EXCEPT all the other competition fails as hard.

Fun-fact; Apple is experimenting with water-proof and just pushed for some related patents. It may well happen that end of this year we see a water-proof iPhone. If that happens I will lol out hard a full day. What I am waiting for is Apple adding sdcard's on top whats the moment I start to consider iPhone's a real option. I know I am not alone with that. If Apple continues the path they are on they can win lots of additional customers.

On my book that means things still can shift around. A bloadbath-aftermatch :-)

[John]

Sony will not see benefits from Samsung´s fiasco (if it is). Like you I really like the Z series but Sony is not a contender. What you are not saying (may be is yours Sonyfan insider) is that after announcing the Z4 it will take 6 months to Sony to deliver it to the retail, why? Because of the horrible timing and distribution modus operandi from Sony. Z3...no way, I´m not going to buy a Z3 knowing there is a Z4 unless is heavily discounted, and may be being heavily discounted I won´t buy it anyway, Sony OS upgrade record is atrocious.

LG, yes, I think that they have a very good opportunity, I agree with you that if they are smart enough they could have their razor moment.

What I´m seeing is that premium android OEMs are moving to the iPhone route; no removable batteries, no sd cards, [no waterproofing, more later]. One, the other or all missing:

Motorola, CHECK, CHECK CHECK.
Sony, CHECK,
Samsung CHECK CHECK CHECK.
HTC CHECK CHECK

LG is surviving, but I think that they will follow Samsung´s path, it´s called planned obsolescence and is very important on the high end products.

Problem is that with all android OEMs going that route the clear winner is Apple. Apple will never allow removable batteries and sd cards, but they are filling a very interesting waterproofing technique, we know is coming.

What we are witnessing is a clear path/fashion or put the name you want, High End Android´s will be as sealed as the iPhone, removable batteries and sd cards will be left only for low end. It´s clear that this is happening.

May be Microsoft´s best shot is to provide their phones with the features that major Android OEMs are ready to throw...sounds like a joke, but who knows.

[RottenApple]

@John:

"What we are witnessing is a clear path/fashion or put the name you want, High End Android´s will be as sealed as the iPhone, removable batteries and sd cards will be left only for low end. It´s clear that this is happening. "

It's a contradiction in terms somehow: High end phones deliberatly being worse than low end phones.

The question is: why? If they continue on this route they are going to lose customers to Apple left and right - and if some smart Chinese manufacturer times it right it might compete all the current bigshots out of business. Planned obsolescence is a strategy that will ultimately alienate all serious customers, only leaving the geeks behind which upgrade every year - especially at a time like now where replacement cycles are starting to expand this makes no sense.

There seems to be a clear sign from the industry, consifering high end buyers idiots that can be milked.

And if Microsoft wants to profit from it they first need to throw their tile interface overboard. As long as they do not fix that design catastrophe they won't stand any chance whatsoever.

[John]

@RottenApple:

"It's a contradiction in terms somehow: High end phones deliberately being worse than low end phones."

Yes, it´s clear a contradiction, but the trend is set (IMO). Why...I really don´t know, may be planned obsolescence, may be because the android OEMs are the biggest iSheeps or I don't know.

Agree with you, on this way they are really going to loose to Apple.

I´m an iSheep, well, may be not, at this time I think that the iPhone + iOS ecosystem is the best choice for me, however I remember my beloved Nokia E71, it was a clear proof than you can build a metal phone with great quality, removable battery and SD Card support. The E71 comment is about the fact that is completely possible to build that device but clearly manufactures don´t want to do that.

[Henrik N]

Maybe we see a Microsoft Lumia 940 (Windows Phone 10) in autumn with a removable battery, micro sd card slot, waterproof, 24 MP pixel camera, etc..
I suppose it could attract some customers?

Atelast they dont try to be a iPhone. But I am also realistic and know they have a very low marketshare.

So I guess Samsungs step to remove a lot of features leave room for LG, and maybe Sony. Would be interesting to see how the Chinese brands go forward.
Maybe som Indian brands to like Micromax, Xolo etc..
Anyway it be a interesting 2015.

[tm]

@Tomi:
"Well? Samsung outsells iPhone smartphones by 3 to 2. The market who thinks 'the Samsung way' is 50% BIGGER than those who like the minimalist Apple way of doing things. Isn't that true by the numbers of just these two brands compared (actually far larger difference when we factor all phones, as Apple only has 15% market share in 2014)."

If Samsung sold only 1-2 models and both in the high end, then the above might work. But the market who thinks 'the Samsung way' is mostly mid to low end phones. It's very different story in the high end market that S6 is targeted for.