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February 06, 2015

Comments

Wayne Borean


That's some imaginative stuff.

Wayne

AndThisWillBeToo

Did I just count 8 apps and 6 non-apps?
What do you predict the spread to be in few years now that "peak app" has been passed?

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Wayne, AndThis and LeeBase

About apps vs services. A smartphone app allows using far richer abilities of the mobile phone than a service built on SMS or HTML or voice etc. But smartphone apps reach a TINY slice of the mass market compared to services. Android which now has over 1 Billion users only reaches 1/3 the reach of HTML and 1/4 the reach of MMS and 1/6 the reach of SMS. iOS is one third the size of Android and no other smartphone apps are even worth developing mass market apps for (business apps yes, for Blackberry in some markets).

We are far past peak Apps as most existing apps are now zombies and their update and development has ended and their developers have moved onto more lucrative parts of the tech space.

That being said, if you want to WIN an award for innovation, it is difficult to do that with SMS that has existed commercially for 22 years or HTML that has been on mobile phones for 16 years or MMS thats been around for 14 years. These are very basic platforms that work broadly but are limited in what they can do in terms of radical innovations. You want to do say Augmented Reality or the clever logic of the user interface 'corrections' for the handicapped etc that needs a smartphone and thus many innovations will continue to be done on apps.

Incidentially, as smartphones pass 50% penetration rates in ever more countries and Android has run away with all markets except the USA and Japan, it is perfectly valid to also do apps - on Android - today, in those markets where smartphones exceed 50% of total handset population - all of Western Europe, North America, Advanced Asia, Oceania, and the rich Gulf states of the Middle East. Nothing wrong with doing apps where they are a mass market platform. Only the app developers should be aware that its still a lottery in terms of who makes money, except in gaming where odds are 'hits business' type.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

AndThisWillBeToo

I thought Leebase was going to be banned for life if he mentions apps outside the app metrics blog post or smth?

Lullz

@LeeBase

Most people seem to have difficulties comparing apps to other industries. With books 1 out of 10 succeeds but that's books that get published. If we include self published books or those that are written and never really printed, we get a very different idea of how things are done with the books industry. Maybe one book out of 1 000 - 10 000 brings the author enough money to so that the writer can live on that. Then again those published books are usually profitable only to the publisher and not to the author. One book out of 10 may be profitable to the publisher but it doesn't mean the author would be able to get a living. Far from it.

This is relevant to this post because to understand apps we must be able to compare them to other industries. To compare apps to other industries we need to have a basic understanding about the other industries.

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