Smartphone Year 2014 Final Stats: Brand Top 10, OS Top 4, Installed Base, Regional Split; and Bloodbath Q4 Results (Updated)

Its time to do the biggest collection of end of year smartphone stats here on the CDB blog. The year ended with 1.3 Billion smartphones sold, up 31% from year 2013. Samsung is clear gorilla of the smartphone brands with 24%, and Android has won the OS wars with 82%. China is already 2.5x as large as Western Europe as a smartphone market, over 3 times bigger than North America. As this was the fifth and 'final' year of the Bloodbath, I will do some reflection to brands of the past. Also for the propeller-heads who may be playing along at home, I have decided to stop waiting for Canalys final 2014 and Q4 numbers. Our Q4 and full year 2014 number is the average now of only 2 big analyst houses (IDC and Strategy Analytics).


UPDATED 19 Feb 2014 - Note I have now a short update to the Regional Split analysis based on fresh IDC data, see below



But lets dig into the numbers, thats what you're here for. Big table first:

2014 FULL YEAR SMARTPHONE SALES STATISTICS

Rank . Brand . . . . 2014 units . . Share . . 2013 units . . Share . . 2012 units . . Share

1 (1)  . Samsung  . 314.2 M . . . .24.2% . . 311.4 M . . . 31.5% . . .215.0 M . . . 30.8% 
2 (2)  . Apple  . . . . 192.7 M . . . .14.8% . . 153.4 M . . . 15.5% . . 135.8 M . . . 19.5%
3 (5) . Lenovo *. . . . 95.0 M . . . . 7.3% . . 46.2 M . . . . 4.7% . . . 24.9 M . . . . 3.6%
4 (3)  . Huawei  . . . . 75.0 M . . . . 5.8% . . 52.0 M . . . . 5.3% . . . 32.0 M . . . . 4.6%
5 (-)  . Xiaomi . . . . .  61.1 M . . . . 4.7%. . - - - - . . . . . . - - . . . . - - - - . . .  . . . - - 
6 (4)  . LG  . . . . . . . 59.1 M . . . . .4.5% . . 47.6 M . . . . 4.8% . . . 26.5 M . . . . 3.8%
7 (8) . . Coolpad . . . 50.4 M . . . . 3.9% . . 35.3 M. . . . . 3.6% . . . - - - - . . .  . . . - - 
8 (6) . . ZTE . . . . . .  46.1 M . . . . 3.5% . . 40.0 M . . . . 4.0%  . . 30.0 M . . . . 4.3%
9 (-) . . TCL-Alcatel . 41.4 M . . . . 3.2%. . - - - - . . . . . . - - . . . . - - - - . . .  . . . - - 
10 (7) . Sony . . . . . . 40.2 M . . . . 3.1% . . 38.4 M . . . . 3.9% . . . 31.9 M . . .   4.6%
Other . . . . . . . . . . 325.4 M . . . 25.0%
TOTAL . . . . . . . .1,300.6 M . . . . . . . . . . 990.0 M . . . . . . . . . . 697.7 M
 * Note: Lenovo includes Motorola annual sales from year 2014
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2015
This data may be freely used and repeated

So another year, more classic smartphone brands kicked out of the Top 10 (Nokia and HTC) replaced by more Chinese maufacturers (Xiaomi and TCL-Alcatel). With Finland and Taiwan out of the table, we have only 3 countries left that are not China: 2 providers from South Korea, one from the USA and one from Japan. And Sony is trying to sell its smartphone business...

So Samsung was essentially flat in sales, its market share fell dramatically from 32% to 24%. Apple was able to grow unit sales but see its market share fall again, from 15.5% to 14.8%. Lenovo leapfrogged to 3rd ranking with the Motorola purchase but fell a bit short of selling triple digits of smartphones per year (they will easily achieve that in 2015). Huawei continues its steady progress using organic growth and focusing a lot on Emerging World opportunities. Xiaomi exploded onto the charts powered by almost exclusively Chinese domestic sales and benefitting from China being by far the world's largest smartphone market. It is now trying to expand abroad, starting with India. LG and ZTE showing steady performance in the mid-field, with newer rivals Coolpad and TCL-Alcatel. Sony is stumbling. Below the Top 10 the next rivals from China are Oppo and Vivo, the largest challenger rising from India is Micromax. One of these three may enter the big chart for this year. On the migration level, exactly two thirds of all new phones sold now are smartphones (67%). For those who want to see the table from a year ago, here is the previous year's blog. Then lets look at the OS war.


2014 FULL YEAR OPERATING SYSTEM MARKET SHARES

Rank . . OS . . . . . . . . .  2014 units . . share . . .2013 units . . share . . 2012 units . . share
1 (1) . .  Android  . . . . 1,061.6 M . . . . 81.6% . . . 767 M . . . . . 78% . . . 425 M . . . . . 65%
2 (2) . .  iOS . . . . . . . . . 192.7 M . . . . 14.8% . . . 153 M . . . . . 16% . . . 136 M . . . . . 20%
3 (6) . .  Windows Phone . 35.1 M . . . . 2.7% . . . .33 M . . . . . . 3% . . . .  16 M  . . . . . . 3%
4 (3) . .  Blackberry . . . . . . 9.0 M . . . .  0.7% . . . 23 M  . . . . . .2% . . . . 33 M . . . . . . 5%
Others  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 M . . . .  0.2%
TOTAL  . . . . . . . . . . . 1,300.6 M . . . . . . . . . . . 695 M  . . . . . . .. . . .  486 M
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2015
This data may be freely used and repeated

Blackberry is now only a very small niche enterprise platform (Samsung trying to buy the Blackberry handset business). Windows Phone is dead too, its market share is still falling from the peak Windows smarphones had once of 12% and even year 2014 saw a further erosion as Microsoft bought Nokia's collapsed handset business. The Lumia unit has never been able to generate a profit and the transition to a 'unified' Windows 10 OS platform gives Microsoft a face-saving way to abandon its loss-making smartphone business while holding onto its Surface tablet alongside its highly lucrative Windows desktop business. Apple's iOS is headed to that 'similar to Macintosh' market share as I predicted right from the start of the iPhone and Apple again lost almost a point of market share in 2014 from 2013. By around year 2020 we can expect iPhone to hold roughly 10% market share of smartphones and likely stabilize at that level. Android has eaten up all the major rivals and now towers over the industry with almost 82% of all smartphones sold powered by Android. 2014 was a big milestone year when more than 1 billion Android devices were sold in a single year (and remember, we can add Android tablet sales to the above totals to have Android's total reach). For contrast it takes Microsoft nearly four years to ship a Billion Windows licences across all its platforms. As I wrote, Google and Android have won the tech war of the century. And that brings us of course to the favorite chart nobody else shows, the most relevant chart for developers: the installed base. Actual smartphones in use right now, not what was sold in the past year:

INSTALLED BASE OF SMARTPHONES BY OPERATING SYSTEM AS OF 31 DECEMBER 2014

Rank . OS Platform . . . . Units . . . Market share  Was 2013  . Main Manufacturers of current base
1 . . . . Android . . . . . . . 1,596 M . . . 76 % . . . . . . ( 66 %) . . . . . . Samsung, Huawei, Sony, ZTE, LG, Lenovo/Motorola, Xiaomi, Coolpad, TCL-Alcatel 
2 . . . . iOS  . . . . . . . . . . . 410 M . . . 19 % . . . . . . ( 21 %) . . . . . . Apple
5 . . . . Windows Phone . . 45 M . . . . 2 % . . . . . . (   3 %) . . . . . . Microsoft(Nokia), Samsung, HTC
4 . . . . Blackberry . . . . . .  33 M . . . . 2 % . . . . . . (   4 %) . . . . . . Blackberry
3 . . . . Symbian . . . . . . .  15 M . . . . 1 % . . . . . . (   5 %) . . . . . . Nokia
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  11 M . . . . 2 %
TOTAL Installed Base . 2,110 M smartphones in use at end of Q4, 2014
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2015
This data may be freely used and repeated

The above table reflects of course the bombshell info we had last year from Microsoft that one third of all Lumia smartphones had never even been activated. As Lumia accounts for far in excess of 90% of all Windows Phone OS smartphones sold, that is devastating for the suffering OS platform in terms of reach and developer interest. As we've seen, major brands like Bank of America and Chase have unpublished their Windows Phone apps and are joining the chorus of app developers abandoning this sinking (arguably sunken) ship following Opera Mini, TeamViewer etc. The only platforms currently viable are Android and iOS. In some specialized enterprise areas like banking, government yes Blackberry has a niche audience and in parts of Africa, India you can still find a Symbian audience but Windows is dead on smartphones.

NATIONAL AND REGIONAL MARKETS

Then lets do a regional split. This is very approximate but the biggest national markets in smartphones are:

LARGEST NATIONAL SMARTPHONE MARKETS (Approximate) 2014:
1 . . China . . . . . . 415 M . . 32%
2 . . USA . . . . . . . 120 M . . . 9%
3 . . India . . . . . . . . 80 M . . . 6%
4 . . Brazil . . . . . . . 45 M . . . 3%
5 . . Germany . . . . 35 M . . . 3%
6T . Russia . . . . . . 30 M . . . 2%
6T . UK . . . . . . . . . 30 M . . . 2%
6T . Japan . . . . . .  30 M . . . 2%
9T . France . . . . . . 25 M . . . 2%
9T . Indonesia . . . . 25 M . . . 2%
Source TomiAhonen Almanac 2015
This data may be freely used and repeated

So do we want REGIONAL market shares? I betcha you do! Well, the data is getting very difficult to parse together as we get so little reliable regular data, but I have divided the world into four parts, China, Western Europe, North America, and 'Rest of World'. And I am reasonably comfortable that using various sources of sporadic market share data on individual countries we can do that split. I can report the top 5 handset brands in these 4 regions.

TOP 5 CHINA SMARTPHONES 2014
1 . . . Xiaomi . . . . . . approx 59 M . . . . . 14% market share
2 . . . Samsung . . . . approx 54 M . . . . . 13% market share
3T . . Huawei . . . . .  approx 50 M . . . . . 12% market share
3T . . Coolpad . . . . . approx 50 M . . . . . 12% market share
5 . . . Lenovo . . . . . . approx 46 M . . . . . 11% market share
Total market 415 M smartphones 2014 (32% of global market)
Source TomiAhonen Almanac 2015
This data may be freely used and repeated

TOP 5 WESTERN EUROPE SMARTPHONES 2014
1 . . . Samsung . . . . . . approx 47 M . . . . . . 30% market share
2 . . . Apple . . . . . . . . . approx 44 M . . . . . . 28% market share
3 . . . Sony . . . . . . . .. . approx 17 M . . . . . . 11% market share
4 . . . Microsoft/Nokia . approx 12 M . . . . . . . 8% market share
5 . . . LG . . . . . . . . . . . approx   7 M . . . . . . . 5% market share
Total Market 155 M smartphones 2014 (12% of global market)
Source TomiAhonen Almanac 2015
This data may be freely used and repeated

TOP 5 NORTH AMERICAN SMARTPHONES 2014
1 . . . Apple . . . . . . . . . . approx 67 M . . . . . 49% market share
2 . . . Samsung . . . . . . . approx 31 M . . . . . 23% market share
3 . . . LG . . . . . . . . . . . .  approx 11 M . . . . . . 8% market share
4T . . HTC . . . . . . . . . . . .approx   7 M . . . . . . 5% market share
4T . . Lenovo/Motorola . . approx   7 M . . . . . . 5% market share
Total Market 135 M smartphones 2014 (10% of global market)
Source TomiAhonen Almanac 2015
This data may be freely used and repeated

TOP 5 REST OF WORLD SMARTPHONES 2014
1 . . . Samsung . . . . . . . .approx 183 M . . . . . 31% market share
2 . . . Lenovo/Motorola . . approx   43 M . . . . . . 7% market share
3 . . . LG . . . . . . . . . . . . . approx   41 M . . . . . . 7% market share
4 . . . Apple . . . . . . . . . . . approx   38 M . . . . . . 6% market share
5 . . . Huawei . . . . . . . . .  approx   25 M . . . . . . 4% market share
Total market 595 M smartphones 2014 (46% of global market)
Source TomiAhonen Almanac 2015
This data may be freely used and repeated

So that is my best guess by using 'best fit' analysis from very sporadic regional and national market share numbers and occasional news tidbits like say that Motorola celebrated selling 3 million smartphones in India. And then plugging as much of those items into a big messy spreadsheet and then aggregating the data. I think the above is fairly consistent (within about 5%) of most published numbers except some wild outliers we've had like the much criticized Canalys India numbers that just came out. Also remember, some data is not annual sales data (ComScore publishes installed base market shares) and some data have differing methodologies for different regions, like Kantar China numbers are for the 'urban' areas only in large cities, not all of China. But yes, I am confident those numbers are close to reality about as good as we can do and obviously nobody else publishes this kind of data for free, haha. If you want more detail you have to buy the TomiAhonen Phone Book 2014 (only costs 9.99 Euros) or the upcoming TomiAhonen Almanac 2015.

Meanwhile lets dig a bit into those numbers. The world is quite fragmented still in the young smartphone market. Samsung is the only brand in the Top 5 in each of the 4 regions, and ranked number 1 or 2 in each of them. Apple, Lenovo and LG are the only other brands to score in the Top 5 in three of the four regions. Both fail to crack the Top 5 in China. Lenovo/Motorola doesn't hit the Top 5 in Europe. A bunch of familiar brands are now purely regional - HTC only sells significant share in North America, Sony and Nokia-Microsoft-Lumia in Europe. Huawei is the only other Chinese brand (after Lenovo bought Motorola) to score outside of China, and with its powerful presence in Africa, Huawei appears in Top 5 of Rest of World. ZTE is the biggest smartphone maker to fail to hit the Top 5 in any of the four regions.


UPDATE 19 February - Note, IDC happened to release annual Top 5 ranking data on two of the above 4 regions just days after I published this blog. I have compared the data in 'duelling statistics' haha. We are very very close in agreement about the market sizes AND the Top 5 brands in both regions.

TOTAL HANDSET MARKET INCLUDING DUMBPHONES

Then lets look at how the total handset market sits now, when dumbphones and smartphones are included 

2014 FULL YEAR TOTAL HANDSET SALES STATISTICS

Rank . Brand . . . .  . . . .2014 units . . Share . . Migration Rate . . 2013 units . . Share 

1 (1)  . Samsung . . . . .  . 395 M . . . . 20.3% . . . . 75% . . . . . . . . . 440 M . . . 23.5%  
2 (2)  . Microsoft(Nokia) . 252 M . . . . 12.9% . . . . 15% . . . . . . . . . 263 M . . . 14.0% 
3 (3)  . Apple  . . . . . . . .  193 M . . . . .  9.9% . ..  100% . . . . . . . . . 153 M . . . . 8.2% 
4 (4)  . Huawei  . . . . . . . 138 M . . . . . . 7.1% . . . . 55% . . . . . . . . .  77 M . . . . 4.1% 
5 (8) .  Lenovo *. . .. . .  . . 95 M . . . . . . 4.9% . . . 100% . . . . . . . . .  46 M . . . . 2.5%  
6 (5)  . LG  . . . . . . . . . . .. 78 M . . . . . ..4.0% . . . . 80% . . . . . . . . . . 72 M . . . . 3.8% 
7 (7)  . TCL-Alcatel . . . . . 64 M . . . . . . 3.3% . . . . 67% . . . . . . . . . . 49 M . . . . 2.6% 
8 (-) . . Xiaomi  . . . . . . . . 61 M . . . . . . 3.1% . . . .100% . . . . . . . .. - - - - . . . . . . - - .  
9 (6) . . ZTE . . . . . . . . . .  56 M . . . . . . 2.9% . . . . 65% . . . . . . . . . . 58 M . . . . 3.1% 
10 (-) . Coolpad . . . . . . .  50 M . . . . . . 2.6% . . . .100% . . . . . . . . . - - - - . . . . . . - - . 
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568 M . . . . . 29.1%
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . 1,950 M . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,875 M
 * Note: Lenovo includes Motorola annual sales from year 2014
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2015
This data may be freely used and repeated

Samsung total shipments in handsets are down from 2014 but they still sell a million phones every day. Microsoft ie Nokia continues in second place (but Apple is currently overhauling them. 80% of Microsoft phones sold are dumbphones and Microsoft is winding down that business.). Lenovo, Xiaomi and Coolpad are the other pure smartphone makers in addition to Apple in the global handset Top 10.

MIGRATION RATE

So how is that migration rate? I think you can see now why I am so convinced year 2019 is the last year we will see dumbphones sold. Look at this migration rate as a graphic that I showed at the World Summit Awards just last week:



Image by TomiAhonen Consulting January 2015
Picture may be freely shared

So yes, the migration rate of the handset market, in new phones sold hit 67% for the year 2014. We are now seeing the last years that dumbphones are still sold. I project year 2019 is the last year when any meaningful numbers of dumbphones are sold (more than 1%) and year 2020 is the first year when all phones sold are smartphones.

QUARTERLY FINAL DATA Q4

So then for those who are interested in the 'horserace' aspect on a quarterly basis, lets do final Q4 numbers. The table is:

BIGGEST SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS BY UNIT SALES IN Q4 2014

Rank . . . Manufacturer . Units . . . Market Share . Was Q2 2014 . . OS systems supported (coming)
1 (1) . . . Samsung . . . .  74.8 M . . 20.1% . . . . . . . ( 24.5% ) . . . . . . Android, Tizen, Windows
2 (2) . . . Apple  . . . . . . . 74.5 M . . 20.1% . . . . . . . ( 12.3% ) . . . . . . iOS
3T (4) . . Lenovo * . . . . . 24.4 M . . . 6.6% . . . . . . . (   5.3% ) . . . . . . Android (Tizen)
3T (5T) . Huawei  . . . . . 24.4 M . . . 6.6% . . . . . . . (   5.2% ) . . . . . . Android (Tizen)
5 (3) . . . Xiaomi . . . . . . .17.0 M . . . 4.6% . . . . . . .  (   5.6% ) . . . . . . Android
6 (7) . . . TCL/Alcatel . . . 16.8 M . . . 4.5% . . . . . . . (  4.0% ) . . . . . . . Android
7 (5T) . . LG  . . . . . . . .  . 15.5 M . . . 4.2% . . . . . . . (   5.2% ) . . . . . . Android
8 (8) . . . Coolpad/Yulong  14.9 M . . . 4.0% . . . . . . . (   3.9% ) . . . . . . Android
9 (9) . . . ZTE  . . . . . . . . . 13.2 M . . . 3.6% . . . . . . . (   3.4% ) . . . . . . Android, Firefox
10 (10) . Sony . . . . . . . . . 11.4 M . . . 3.1% . . . . . . . (   3.1% ) . . . . . . Android
Others . . . . . . . . . . . .. .   90.8 M
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . ..   377.7 M
 * Lenovo includes Motorola
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis 13 February 2015, based on manufacturer and industry data
This table may be freely shared

First, on Sammy. I have taken the average of the Samsung number by our analyst houses which just edges it to Samsung over Apple. Its not my call haha, don't blame me. So yeah, Xiaomi had its brief moment as 3rd largest but has fallen now back into the pack. Lenovo jumped to a tied third place with the Motorola purchase but the real solid growth is at Huawei, steady on organic growth. So lets do the Android chart...

BIGGEST SMARTPHONE OPERATING SYSTEMS BY UNIT SALES IN Q4 OF 2014

Rank . OS Platform . . . . Units . . . . Market share . Was Q3 2014 . . Manufacturers in Top 10
1 (1) . . Android . . . . . . . 288.4 M . .  76.5 % . . . . . ( 83.6 %) . . . . . Samsung, Huawei, Lenovo, LG, ZTE, TCL/Alcatel, Sony, Yulong/Coolpad, Xiaomi
2 (2) . . iOS  . . . . . . . . . . . 74.5 M . .  19.8 % . . . . . ( 12.3 %)  . . . . . Apple
3 (3) . . Windows Phone . 11.2 M . . .  3.0 % . . . . . (  3.2 %) . . . . . . Samsung
4 (4) . . Blackberry . . . . . . . 2.1 M . . .  0.7 % . . . . . (  0.7 %) . . . . . . (None)
others . . . . . . .. .  . . . . . . . . . 1.0 M . . .  0.3 % . . . . . 
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  377.4 M
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis 13 February 2015, based on manufacturer and industry data
This table may be freely shared

Yeah Android won blah-blah-blah, Windows Phone is dead blah-blah-blah, iOS is nice luxury/premium niche, blah-blah-blah, Blackberry who cares, blah-blah-blah.

FIVE YEARS IN THE BLOODBATH

Want some context? So how was the Bloodbath? We've followed ever exciting toss and turn in this, the most intense global market share war there ever was, in any industry cars, banks, airlines, personal computers, cola wars, you name it. The past 5 years have been carnage as never witnessed in any global industry ever in such a short period of time. This is what the smartphone market looked like in 2010 full year with now brief commentary on what happened to them:

SMARTPHONE TOP 10 GIANTS OF 2010 AND WHAT HAPPENED TO THEM
1  Nokia . . . . . . 100.3M . . . 34% - died. Sold to Microsoft. Currently has 2% market share
2  RIM . . . . . . . . 48.0M . . . 16% - on life support. Samsung trying to buy. Currently has 1% market share
3  Apple . . . . . . .47.5M . . . 16% - grew with the industry mildly losing market share. Currently 15%
4  HTC . . . . . . .  25.0M . . . . 8% - vanished. Some say there are HTC models sold in the US market
5  Samsung . . . .24.0M . . . . 8% - exploded, grew 13x bigger and has 24% market share today
6  Motorola . . . . 13.7M . . . . 5% - died. Sold to Google. Then sold onto Lenovo. Brand has 2% share
7  SonyEricsson . 9.5M . . . . 3% - on life support, Sony management trying to sell the division
8  LG . . . . . . . . . 7.0M . . . . 2% - grew strongly to 5% market share today
9  Fujitsu . . . . . .  6.2M . . . . 2% - vanished to the Japanese domestic market
10 Sharp . . . . . . . 5.2M . . . . 2% - vanished to the Japanese domestic market
Others . . . . . . . . 11.6M - spawned a Chinese revolution: Huawei, Lenovo, Xiaomi, ZTE, Coolpad, TCL
Total . . . . . . . . .297.9M - grew more than 4-fold in the past 5 years, fastest growing giant global industry

Yeah, thats amazing looking at that list. But haha, Palm had already died by 2010, was sold to HP who then sold the Palm brand onto TCL. Only 3 and a half of the 10 brands in the above list survived to be competitive in the Top 10 through the tumultuous Bloodbath years. Why 3.5 not 4? Because SonyEricsson was the phone brand back in 2010 and Ericsson pulled out of that mess so only Sony is left now and even that has been a struggle for the electronics giant.

Ok I will post this version now and then re-read it all, correct some formating and the inevitable math error and consider if there is anything else worth saying or doing with this data. As always, feel free to share all this data with anyone, the biggest source of free stats about the smartphone and mobile industry is the CDB blog.

If you want to see the previous Quarter, here is that data for Q3. If you need more info, get the TomiAhonen Phone Book 2014 and if you buy the TomiAhonen Almanac now, I will send you both the current ie 2014 edition and the new 2015 edition when that is published. Don't worry about the website showing older editions I just have't bothered to update those pages.

Comments

[Wayne Borean]

Got a question re the Regional Stats. Is Western Europe the European Union? If not, what countries is it?

I know it doesn't make a difference numbers wise, but I'm curious as to how countries like Poland, the Baltic States, Hungary, Bulgaria, etc. Show up.

And then there's dear little Switzerland...

Wayne

[Wayne Borean]

Heh. Just went to tweet this, noticed the title came out as:

Smarphone Year 2014 Final Stats

My spellchecker didn't like Smarphone 😄

Wayne

[Tomi T Ahonen]

haha thanks. I had to re-read that several times to see the T in SmarTphone was missing... ok its fixed.

Western Europe as opposed to Eastern Europe is EU more-or-less plus the few renegade West European countries not in EU like Norway, Switzerland.

Tomi :-)

[Ibu Kita Kartini]

@Tomi

Regarding South Africa (SA) & BB. I was wondering if you know the Black/Grey market of phone (and also iPhone).

TBH, I don't know the exact market in SA. But in Indonesia, according to this article:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/lack-of-global-knowledge-has-cost-blackberry-indonesia/article21432165/ (see the chart)....
BB has sold around 8.3 million bb since 2008. Assuming all the phone still in use that's translate into 8.3 million user.

But according to Indonesia carrier.
Telkomsel alone has 10.4 million BB user http://www.tempo.co/read/news/2014/06/06/072583095/Pelanggan-Telkomsel-Android-Lampaui-Blackberry (in Indonesian)

If we count all other Indonesian carrier using their published number from several publication, the BB smartphone might be around 15 million in mid-end of 2014.

Now back to South Africa....
I read from several publication that popular BB phone in SA were the old BB types. Perhaps it was second hand BB imported from other country.

[AndThisWillBeToo]

Wow. "Others" (Firefox, Sailfish, DoCoMo Symbian (apparently some left according to Kantar) - all of them sold total of 2.2M (0.2%) through the whole YEAR.
Who in their straight face still insists that one of these can grow up to contest Android or iOS? Anyone?

Remember that from what we have heard from this blog the Windows Phone is rejected by carriers and hated by users so much they tell everyone not to buy one...
...and all these contenders could not get carrier support enough to sell more than 1/16th of the WP sales.

Carriers were supposed to embrace third ecosystem to decrease their dependency on Google and barter better deals with Apple. Even Tomi has said that (at the same time mentioning carriers do NOT want it to be WP). Where is that third ecosystem? Why none of those grows even neck-to-neck with the hated WP?

[Mikhail]

Could you post a link to the ComScore installed base data?

[AndThisWillBeToo]

Okay, game over for Samsung. The carriers will slaughter them as Galaxy S6 will have Skype pre-installed.

"What’s interesting is that Samsung has apparently pre-installed quite a few Microsoft apps, possibly as a result of the deal the two companies made recently in relation to the patent royalty case they were embroiled in. The Galaxy S6 will come with apps like Microsoft OneNote, OneDrive, Office Mobile (with a free Office 365 subscription), and Skype."

http://www.sammobile.com/2015/02/12/exclusive-galaxy-s6-software-will-bring-some-amazing-changes/

[Tester]

Are you still picking on that?

I think the more interesting conclusion here is that by having their software on the top Android phone, Microsoft pretty much admits defeat regarding Windows Phone.

Let's see how long they need to shut it down...

[Catriona]

@Tester, they did as much when they launched Word, Excel, and PowerPoint for iOS las March. Even today Word is the top grossing productivity app on iOS and Excel is 4th. PowerPoint is 31st, though it is 9th in terms of downloads. I haven't looked at the Google Play charts but wouldn't be surprised to see a similar situation there.

[Tony]

Shouldn't total market share for Android be split between Google implementations and AOSP implementations? IF it was how would Apple, Google Android, and AOSP android place?

[cornelius]

@Tony How does one estimate the number of AOSP?

@AndThisWillBeToo TouchWiz + Microsoft apps = utter failure
Unless this phone will feature something else that is amazing, i predict poor sales for S6

[Tony]

@cornelius: I have no idea but I think it is important. There are two ways to make money on smartphones; from the actual sale of the phone and then the phone's ecosystem (app store, media (streaming and downloads), search, ecetera). Apple controls the phone ecosystem for each apple phone sold. Google doesn't control the AOSP ecosystem.

[bolot95]

Hi Brother Baron95,

Perhaps you have a reading skill problem, so I will help you. Tomi says that at number 11 & 12 were from China. So, your bf company (microsoft) is still far away from success & won't be the one that kick sony.

Samsung is in a better condition than microsoft. Samsung has a device using an OS that everyone likes. If it doesn't sell well, they just need to tweak it. and they did. The new E & A series now using a metal frame, and it's getting a good review. Compared to microsoft that using an OS that everyone hates, no matter what microsoft did, it won't be better.... I have a question for you brother baron95, why would you think microsoft will gain market share?

Apple 20% tablet market is on fire, like elop fire. In the past apple don't have phablet, so for those who want more screen estate, they have to buy the tablet, but now, it's going down. the 20% market share you wrote here is already on a slide even BEFORE the iphablet come out. So, why would you lie, and try to make apple looks better, are you insecure?

I love the words 'maybe' in 2.5%. Are you a psychic?

[Catriona]

@Baron95, speaking rationally, and not to trolls, the iPad did see a sales decline, but it isn't as if Samsung or any other high-end player took up the slack.The entire market took a dive except for the cheap garbage at the low end. My guess is that tablets ramped up so quickly that they hit a wall, but will find a steady replacement business going forward.

[bolot95]

@Catriona.

Only iPad decline. Others (android, windows) did not decline. Perhaps because android already has phablet since before, so the tablet didn't got a hit from the phablet. Whereas iPad took a hit from the iPhablet.

http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=pressreleaseviewer&a0=5640&src=rss

[Nirmala]

@bolot

Drunk analyst (opa baron95 style).
https://www.abiresearch.com/press/4q-2014-smartphone-os-results-android-smartphone-s

[Tester]

@Nirmala:

That 'analysis' is completely useless (drunk analyst indeed!) Everybody knows that quartely fluctuations are no trend.

@Baron95:

No, Microsoft won't stand a chance, even with Windows 10. In the past they primarily sold cheap low end devices at no profit and there's nothing that's going to change anything about it.
Nobody who wants to get more out of their phone would ever think of buying a Lumia, the app offerings are just too bad for that.
And that's not going to change. Even games which are moderately profitable on both Android and iOS are economically unfeasible on WP. Nobody's buying so nobody's developing anymore.
The last one I worked on completely tanked, it didn't even manage to earn its developing costs over the last 15 months, so for the next one which was due christmas the publisher decided not to bother with a WP submission.
The platform is dead. Period.

On tablets, Windows still got a chance, but not on smartphones. And even if they manage to re-enter the top 10, that's meaningless if the business doesn't manage to generate any profit and any user retention whatsoever.

[Wayne Borean]

Microsoft's apps are at the top of the paid Productivity list for Apple? Yeah, right.

@Tomi

Really Norway and Switzerland don't count. The population of both countries is tiny. The newer EU members do have a fair bit of population when added up, like Poland where large families were the norm until 25-30 years ago.

@Everyone Else

Microsoft's apps are free. And yes, I checked the list just to make sure.

As to predictions, I'm going to predict that Microsoft continues trying to sell phones for 2015. I'm not sure about 2016, I'd say chances are 50/50. I can point you at Microsoft documents on how important mobile is, and even with losses I can't see them giving up yet.

But a lower cost Windows Phone would make sense, as well as a push to sell unlocked phones through other routes, such as Walmart and/or Target. If Microsoft could produce a sub $200 phone (no contract), good for the AT&T GSM network, they might have a chance, by selling to customers who haven't heard of them yet 😄

Wayne

[Tester]

@Wayne Borean:

"As to predictions, I'm going to predict that Microsoft continues trying to sell phones for 2015. I'm not sure about 2016, I'd say chances are 50/50. I can point you at Microsoft documents on how important mobile is, and even with losses I can't see them giving up yet."

My guess is that they need to find a way to wind down that unit without making the stock market panic. No sane CEO can afford to keep such a loss making unit forever.
So before giving up officially they first need to find some other kind of foothold in the mobile market and that's my guess about having their stuff preinstalled on Samsung phones.
It will ultimately make an exit from the mobile hardware business easier if they have some installed software base to show in place.

"But a lower cost Windows Phone would make sense, as well as a push to sell unlocked phones through other routes, such as Walmart and/or Target. If Microsoft could produce a sub $200 phone (no contract), good for the AT&T GSM network, they might have a chance, by selling to customers who haven't heard of them yet 😄"

Sub $200 with no contract? You consider that cheap? The only segment where Microsoft has been able to sell is the sub $150 segment,
But I agree with the last part: Their only chance is to sell to people who don't know shit about smartphones. The problem just is, you can't sell more than one phone to those...

[Lullz]

When was the peak smartphones for Nokia?

Today we can see lots of similarities with Apple and Nokia in 2010. Both growing unit sales but losing market share. Apple made record unit sales in 2014 but the company was said to peaked long before that. How is that for Nokia? If we use pure market share for evaluating Nokia's peak on smartphones, it happened before 2010 but when exactly? If there is some other way to see about this then what would that be? I'm asking this because understanding Nokia's peak would help understanding Apple and perhaps even Samsung.

Clearly it can't be about just one quarter even while one quarter can or can not start a trend.