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« So the Smartphone 'Bloodbath' Annual Preview for Year 2015 - This is so boring | Main | Some Smartphone Market Updates - Xiaomi, Huawei, Blackberry, Palm, TCL-Alcatel, Lamborghini »

January 05, 2015

Comments

Umpipumpi

Tomi.

It's probable that in 2020 an 2010 iPhone level device will cost $10 but so what? What does that matter?

Using the internet will not be easy with that device. The internet of 2020 will be quite different from what it's today. It can run apps but so what? So can a very cheap phone sold today. You will be able to call and send SMS messages and perhaps use some services no one has yet invented.

Yeah, we do know the 2010 iPhone level devices will be very cheap in 2020 but so what? What does that matter and how will it affect the industry? What's the difference? Apps? Hardly. Something else? What would that be?

charly

An SD card is behind the plastic an 32-bit computer with some memory and raw flash. Obvious it is not an AppleII equivalent because it has much,much more storage space and internal memory and the 32-bit cpu is also a lot faster.(128kB,32bit, vs 64kB,8bit, 1MHz)


There is a very big market for $10 dumb phones in Africa and India. Selling them a working $10 smartphone is really easy as that will be for those people their only choice to get an internet connection, camera, game console, computer or even watch.

If 20% of your users use a iphone equivalent smartphone than as web site operator you will make sure that the website works for those 20%


ps. I'm lying about the watch, they had it with their dumb phone

notzed

What about junk "non-productive" costs like patent licensing?

Winter

@LeeBase
"So...where are all the AppleII equivalent computers being sold today for a nickel?"

A $1 Apple II is not viable because the Apple II was already bad at what it did when it was the only option. Whatever you could do on an Apple II is either worth to pay more for to do it right (e.g., spreadsheets) or can be done on a $1 gadget (e.g., very simple games, calculators).

@LeeBase
"Moore's law doesn't say anything about economic viability. You don't just keep making the same tech, but cheaper. You make more powerful tech. Just like nobody is buying pre-iPhone smartphones. They didn't continue to exist but just sold for $10."

For people who make less than $100 a month, a $10 Smartphone is a very viable offer. When you travel to the developing world, you will see masses of people using very old phones. They would love to get a smartphone for the price they now pay for a second (or sixth) hand dumbphone. Given the way the economies of these countries develop, there is absolutely no reason at all to expect the situation to be different in 2020.

There

"If 20% of your users use a iphone equivalent smartphone than as web site operator you will make sure that the website works for those 20%"

Maybe, if they are your customers. Today most of the people use dumphone equivalent web browsers but lots of the web site operators are not making sure the websites are working with those.

AppleII level computers are barely sold anymore. Show me one with a full keyboard, same level of ram and processing power and a tv connectivity and I'll show you how rare those things are.

However it's very probable that a 2010 iPhone level device will be sold in 2020. This is because iPhone was that good and well balanced. It was actually so good that even Tomi needs to use 2010 iPhone as the reference device. Not N8 even while it was mentioned or not something else. The thing is that iPhone is what people understand best and already did in 2010.

There

"For people who make less than $100 a month, a $10 Smartphone is a very viable offer"

No doubt about that but so what?

What will be different when that happens? Dumphones already can run some kind of apps and access the internet. Today almost 100% of the phones sold have some kind of internet access and even the oldest phones can use internet services with SMS.

Please tell what will change and how will it impact the industry. We know that the devices will get better in the low end but since this has always been the case, it's very hard to understand what will be different since almost everything can already be done even with the cheapest phones.

abdul muis

Guys,

Tomi were HALFWAY right at this moment. The very cheap phone currently available from Nokia and others is WORTH thousands of US$ many years ago. If in 1990 Tomi said that the mobile phone will be sell $10 or $20, many will mock Tomi, like you guys did now.

The smartphone will also become very cheap, the question here is HOW CHEAP and WHEN.

Winter

@There
"Please tell what will change and how will it impact the industry."

If you expect that in 2020, $10 smartphones will be sold that equal the original iPhone in specs, then you can prepare for a world where 80-90% of all humans will have such a device.

If you have no idea what the implications of such a development are, Tomi has some books you can buy.

Winter

"If you expect that in 2020, $10 smartphones will be sold that equal the original iPhone in specs, then you can prepare for a world where 80-90% of all humans will have such a device."

Should be:
... 80-90% of humans will have a device with at least these capabilities.

abdul muis

http://www.phonearena.com/news/Heres-what-49-get-you-in-China-A-4.5-inch-quad-core-phone-that-doesnt-look-half-bad_id64517

"So what does that get you? To start off, we're looking at a 4.5-inch display with a resolution of 480 x 854, good for 218 pixels per inch, which is solid for this class. The device is powered by a quad-core MediaTek MT6582M processor with 1.3GHz cores and a Mali-400 GPU from ARM, along with 512MB of RAM. The rest of the specs include a 5-megapixel rear camera, a 1.3-megapixel selfie snapper, two SIM card slots (3G and 2G), and 4GB of microSD-expandable internal storage. Finally, the Elephone G1 relies on a 1,800 mAh Li-Po battery to keep the lights on and is running on a lightly skinned version of Android 4.4.2 KitKat."

For $49, Higher display (ALMOST RETINA DISPLAY resolution) than the original iPhone, same RAM as iphone, FASTER CPU than iphone.

There

"... 80-90% of humans will have a device with at least these capabilities."

I'm sure 80-90% of humans will have a possibility to have a device like that but I don't think the outcome has been explained in Tomi's books. At least I haven't seen it explained. We already have the internet services covered with the current phones. You can reach everyone with SMS and SMS is not going away by 2020. We already have internet capable phones for almost everyone.

What will change is that the new phones will be more powerful but with the same features. Better but same features. Even the extremely cheap phones already have cameras and they utilize location services with GSM positioning. GPS will be more accurate but that's it.

if you know what will change, could you give us a short explanation?

Gonzo

There will be a 5 dollar smart phone, but maybe there will be another 300 dollar gadget ( with phone) projecting 3D graphics on a wall or holograms on a table top and doing things for you that you don't even know you need.

You are all assuming that there will be nothing else to replace the smart phone and that only low end gadgets will prevail, for that to be the case no new crazy gadgets or unimaginable new products will be invented, time after time we all have been proven wrong and time after time something on one saw coming appears.

Do you remember the cost of an international call years ago? And the Skype came in so the telcos found new life doing something else, and selling albums ? It's a business world. Good bikes cost more nowadays, Cars get more expensive as new features are invented, even the old buddy "TV" the good ones are not cheaper and the ones that get cheaper or unprofitable are replaced with newer ones… with new technology.


Winter

@There
"We already have the internet services covered with the current phones."

Yes, more or less (e.g., Asha like feature phones). But that was not true when the iPhone was introduced. We are now half way of the prediction of Tomi, so we should have a lot of the functionality available.

But there are more services over the internet that are not readily available in feature phones with small screens. The whole point of Tomi's prediction was that by 2020, all these features would be available for $10.

@There
"if you know what will change, could you give us a short explanation?"

I have seen people in the developing world using mobile phones, and most do not have such features available. A drop in price will make them available to everyone. What will happen when another few billion people get full internet connectivity and real personal computing in their pockets. Who knows? The same question was asked when the internet took off in the 1990s. No one could predict the effect, but there was a big effect.

There

@Winter

"The whole point of Tomi's prediction was that by 2020, all these features would be available for $10."

I see. You mean that all these features we used to have in 2010 will be available and some of the features invented after that time? Effectively it would mean that the user base of the current services would become more than twice as big. This would sound more like a growing market than a real change.

Obviously there will be new services that a 2010 iPhone level device can't run and those devices may have a 10-30% market share in 2020. Or have I misunderstood something?

"I have seen people in the developing world using mobile phones, and most do not have such features available."

What features? Baking is available through SMS and most dumphones sold today can run small Java apps. What's the real difference between those small Java apps and those apps utilizing the power of 2010 iPhone class device? Most of the apps made for iPhone in 2010 were already invented in the late 90's and they only became popular with the iPhone. Those apps don't need the processing power of a device like that. What they need is marketing and people wanting to use them.

Banking, news services, dating and entertainment can all be implemented with a Java app. There is actually very little a dumphone capable of running Java apps can't do and 2010 iPhone can do. Augmented reality is not one of those things since 2010 iPhone can't pull it off efficiently enough.

If it's about better and more efficient access to the internet, that's another thing. It's not about bringing new services but making the old ones easier to use. Also it doesn't bring the latest services to the $10 phones sold in 2020.

charly

In the US it is a growing market, in Africa it is a real change.

A 2010 iphone couldn't run youtube* but adding that, 3g
,) is nearly costless outside of licensing costs.

Apps are not what makes 2010 high end devices so useful. It is their browser. Dumbphones have almost by definition not a good browser


*) good resolution over mobile network.

Winter

@There
"Banking, news services, dating and entertainment can all be implemented with a Java app."

I am afraid you have a much to rosy picture of what the masses of low end mobile phones can do that are in use by the poor in the developing world. Java might not be part of it.

There

@Winter

Apps are almost irrelevant anyway. However if something needs to be done there is already a way to do it with Java. We only have one example of how 2010 iPhone class smartphones will change the world compared to the present and that's the browser. The rest we already have with SMS, current phones and with Java apps.

RottenApple

@There:

Your argument seems to be that crappy feature support is good enough for the poor masses.
Well, Tomi's argument is that in 6 years there's no need for these people to bother with this crap because semi-decent smartphones can be had for an affordable price.

And that will happen, along with the crap being flushed out for good.

There

@RottenApple

"Your argument seems to be that crappy feature support is good enough for the poor masses."

No it's not. My point is that the high end 2020 services will require 2020 high end hardware. The 2010 services will become low end services available to the 2010 iPhone class devices and the new services introduced closer to the 2020 will require more capable hardware.

This is the same development we have seen in the last 10 years. My question really is the following. What's different from the last time technology advanced 10 years? Now it looks like that the high end gadgets will be become low end devices and they will be replaced with the new high end devices.

So what's different?

Winter

@There
"My point is that the high end 2020 services will require 2020 high end hardware."

If there are customers, the services will try to accommodate them. There is demand for banking services, so someone will offer it. Even if it has to be done over SMS. But SMS banking is not the be all end all of online banking. There are other services that need a more complex interface.

@There
"What's different from the last time technology advanced 10 years?"

Network effects?

There are service level thresholds for all kind of commerce and social networks. You "can" use MMS on a small screen for eReading. But it will only replace books and magazines when you can display some kind of page size of text and figures. The same for movies. uTube is great, but not on a 1.5" screen. The same for interactive Web browsing. You need some level of user-friendliness before you can use interactive web sites.

And so on, and so on.

Sometimes a small step in UI quality is a large step in user base (eg, HTML/HTTP vs Gopher, for the old hands).

The comments to this entry are closed.

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