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January 06, 2015


Magnus Jørgensen

Interesting that Huawei's sales numbers last year, is actually matching Microsofts total platform sales all years combined, since the introduction of the platform.

That says something about how weak MS market share is.

Even though MS could more or less pocket $1bn in Android license royalties from Samsung last year, and remember that that income doesn't rely on any future services that needs to be delivered, total profits . Despite of that, with their enormous marketing campaign, they still haven't gained any market share.

This must really hurt on MS. Meanwhile apple and Google are delivering OS'es for cars and tv's now.

The MS monopoly on operating system finally looks like it is vaning.


This conclusion has been obvious for years now, except for the astroturfers, NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE

Wayne Borean


I wouldn't say no one wants a Windows phone. Microsoft employees who want to show the firm how loyal they are probably want one.

But beyond them, no, not a lot of people are interested.

The fun part is Palm, being resurrected once more. Assuming they can build a Palm phone that has the right set of features/looks to make it popular, we could see Palm become a success. Might. Personally I don't see that happening, the competition level is so high at present that designing a hot phone is getting pretty tough.



Maybe some microsoft employees will buy a WP but clearly the Chinese don't want it! I doubt even the astroturfers want to buy one. LoL! NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE.


Actually, there were rumors earlier in 2014 that Sony was going to pick up Windows Phone but this was canned because they probably realized that WP was not going to be profitable. Now a Sony WP device would have fitted their Vaio line as Vaio runs Windows and a Vaio phone would run Windows Phone as a complement. That would have complemented the Vaio product portfolio.

With Vaio in a separate company they have reached the same conclusion that a Vaio WP phone wouldn't sell so they place their cards on Android which is safer. WP isn't going anywhere and now when Microsoft is supposed to do their own hardware, nobody wants to deal with them at all. Otherwise, I would have seen that WP would have been the natural OS for the Vaio line if Microsoft hadn't destroyed their own business that much.


Now back to the real topics: Samsung just threw in a profit warning: their Q4 result will be 37% down YoY. Numbers from IDC & al. will be an interesting read.

eduardo m

Ben Thompson on Xiaomi


@Tomi: here there is some data from Kantar for 2014:

Any idea what OS can be in 'Other' category in Japan that comes up? Grey import of Sailfish? :D


That's DoCoMo OEM's Symbian. The one that was not compatible with Series 60. Practically all "dumbphones" in Japan run it.


@AndThisWillBeToo: might be but its market share is increasing! Quite interesting...


It could be due to aging population of Japan and the fact you cannot really make non-touch keypad phone running iOS, Android or WP.
Tomi probably knows more.

Angkasa Pura

There is a good article at seeking alpha about BB.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Zlutor

Thanks for the Kantar numbers via MyNokiaBlog. It gives two interesting findings. Windows Phone. World's largest smartphone market is China still growing faster than the industry. Kantar counts Windows Phone lost 3/5 of its market share there. Even if China grew by 40% in the past 12 months in absolute number terms Lumia sales would be down to half they were in the world's largest smartphone market just a year ago. Europe is the second largest region. Windows Phone down 1/5. Then third largest is North America where Windows Phone down about 1/3. These three markets account for about 85% of the world's smartphone sales. Windows Phone aka now Lumia smartphone sales market share would be down on market-sized adjustments from those Kantar numbers, when calculated globally, to somewhere in 2% to 2.5% range for Q4 of 2014. At the top end, it could mean Microsoft reports about flat Lumia sales (market share significantly down) or worst case both Lumia absolute unit sales down and market share down for Christmas Quarter compared to their 'record' quarter of Q3 of 2014.

Thats the really bad news for the handset that nobody wanted even when it carried the Nokia brand and was sold at a loss and one in three supposedly sold was never even activated. How much worse is it when the brand is Microsoft haha.. This is the beginning of the end. Lumia unit will be sold or shut down in maybe 2 years, max 3. But before Nadella shuts it down he will remove Elop and give some other Microbrain a chance to try to revive the unit.

Ok if thats astonishing news, try iOS. Wow. China sales is up 'only' about 1% from Q4 of 2013 according to Kantar. But US is up 4% and Europe up 6%. Even if we allow for that alarming 15% drop in Japan (wot?) then yes, when adjusted for market sizes, the Kantar numbers suggest about a 1.7% gain in market share Q4 of 2014 vs same period a year earlier. And then... what would 19.5% mean for iPhone sales in Q4 of 2014? Wow. Are you sitting down? If those Kantar numbers accurately foretell the Christmas sales for the iPhone, a 19.5% market share in Q4 would mean about ... 76 Million units sold !!! And if Apple does that in Q4 their iPhone 6 models would have saved them from a decline in market share and the full year sales would hit 194 million iPhones and their market share would be flat from 2013. (For the record, I am currently modelling a strong growth quarter for Apple at 70 million iPhones in the Christmas Quarter not 76M haha).

Thanks Zlutor. Interesting reading as Kantar always is, but remember that one quarter when we relied on Kantar numbers and they steered us rather badly astray. Its just one data point, lets see how the Quarter pans out. But Kantar signals more misery for Microsoft and iMagical iChristmas for iApple.

Tomi Ahonen :-)



The iPhone 6 'saved' Apple because it finally brought Apple users the one thing they had been sorely missing out: large screens! It was inevitable that this would generate a sales spike twice as strong as normal.

And regarding Japan: Wasn't Q4/2013 when they got their phones on DoCoMo?
So the iPhone 6 release couldn't even come close to matching THAT spike last year.

Tomi T Ahonen


I was talking annual market share decline, not the quarterly cycle that always has a Christmas-bump. The annual cycle is down about 1 percent now per year but if Apple sells what was it, 76M then their Q4 sales are so big, that the annual number is flat. so i was talking of the annual market share not the normal highly volatile Apple market share ups and downs every year. I keep reminding readers (not regular folks like you, but the occasional visitor) that they should never confuse Apple's Quarter-on-Quarter market share movements with real performance because that is only their release cycle. The only relevant measure for Apple is the annual share. all else is noise, from one Quarter to the next. Noise. Annual is the only way to measure Apple. The other brands can be measured quarterly.

Tomi Ahonen :-)



Have you ever considered how many potential customers Apple may have LOST playing such antics?
I actually know a few who simply had enough of Apple playing games with their money. They are now all happy Android users.



You can wait to add features if you don't have competitors that sell almost the same thing. Apple is in that situation, Samsung isn't


My honest wish is that I will never again have to argue about whether or not Sony is making excellent business with its smartphone offering.
Also bad news for Tomi's forecast that by Q1-Q2 2015 XPeria sales will boost as Apple customers rush to buy a better phone.

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