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January 29, 2015

Comments

John F.

@Tomi

This might interest you, sorry to post it here .

The iCamera possibility fades ..... smart phones cameras are way too good already even for filmmakers

Sundance Premieres Sophisticated ‘Tangerine,’ Shot on iPhone 5s

One of the big surprises of day two at the Sundance Film Festival was Sean Baker’s “Tangerine.” The “Starlet” director stunned a packed crowd at the premiere on Friday night when he revealed that he shot his low-budget movie entirely on the iPhone 5s.

IT was filmed entirely using three iPhone 5s phones and the $8 app FiLMiC Pro .....

Tomi T Ahonen

KPOM

No. You don't get to play that game. You know perfectly well that the EXACT issue is already discussed in the APPLE posting comments. Go there if you still dare to try that as your 'response' but beware if you WILL need to ADDRESS my response on that point. Don't pull this shit of repeating the silliness again here in another blog.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

John F

First, if you did want to debate the Apple performance please bring that discussion to the Apple thread

Secondly, I really don't understand what you meant by the first part of your complaint. What do you want me to do now? Didn't I do the best that is possible with the little data that we have?

Third on IDC. I thought you've been here for years, maybe I am confusing you with another John. But where SHOULD we get the industry total number? I have used consistently the 4 big analyst houses who all reported (most quarters) the total number, up until Gartner suddenly stopped giving out that number so now its 3: IDC, Strategy Analytics and Canalys. Do you know of any other source that is better than these who give a report on the total smartphone quarterly sales figure and has a good track record for solid numbers and math? I don't. We've held this same standard here for years, I only take the total number from the analyst houses - as the average of what they report - and then try my best to source all individual brands as close to the brand owner as possible, their quarterly results if they offer that detail of course is the best possible source. Samsung rarely commit to a public number so for Sammy we do have to take the next best thing which is the average of these 3 (formerly 4) houses on what they report. Where else would I get that Samsung number? I can apply some degree of logic and sanity checks but now that everybody is on Android that is becoming pretty useless (previously we could separate those who were on Symbian from those who were on Windows from those who were on Android and thus have some sanity checks from that side. Now about the only big thing I can do is look at the performance in the large markets especially China to seek some other sources if the manufacturer themselves doesn't release a number.

So you don't like IDC. We need an industry total. Where do you suggest John I go find one every quarter that is also in the public domain?

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean


Baron95 and Tomi,

I think you are both misunderstanding Apple's moves to a certain extent. There are things that Apple has not publicly said about their plans, that their numbers indicate they are doing.

Explaining it would be too difficult in a comment. I'll post the evaluation on my blog complete with links to sources (and a lot of them will be to Tomi's numbers).

Wayne

Gonzo

Tomi, you said;

So I can't analyze Samsung numbers yet because Sammy didn't give their number for Q4 or for the full year 2014. We did hear, however, that their unit sales were DOWN in the Christmas period. That is VERY bad news.

I know, I know… and I won't talk numbers but this is where financial information helps. As mentioned several times since the news went out end of last year, Samsung did say that the S5 was 40% bellow expectations and Xiaomi and Lenovo are eating the bottom of the cake, so I think the squeeze is in both ends. The bad news is not just that, as a hardware maker, in the coming quarters they will have to sacrifice more and more profit for market share, and that leads... you know where.

Like Compaq, IBM PC, Vaio … they had their boogie man … Android is one of samsung biggest problems. They do not own their destiny, they just own one of the many phones that can get there.

John Alatalo

I have seen some number that the Microsoft/Lumia line sell increase some. So I dont think it are so to speak "dead" yet. I suppose we must wait some months more to see the sale of the new (without the Nokia name) Microsoft Lumia 432, 532 and 535.
Yeah maybe not a lot of profit with them but I guess the goal is to increase the marketshare.
And as far I have understand most of the old Lumia devices will be updated to Winodws 10, so it will not be the Windows Phone 7 and Phone 8 issue this time.

So I guess Satya Nadella will give them atlest 2 year more. If it fails maybe they go Android, some similar stuff like the Nokia X line.

baron99

Windows phone is done. Stick a fork in that crappy turkey! From the recent press it is obvious NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE! :-) ..or should we wait and wait and wait and wait and wait ....and wait ("atleast 2 year more") to see if microsoft is "all in" LoL

DEVELOPERS THINK ITS DEAD!
http://www.forbes.com/sites/davealtavilla/2015/01/30/chase-and-bank-of-america-showing-little-foresight-pull-support-for-windows-phone-apps/

USERS THINK ITS DEAD!
http://venturebeat.com/2015/01/07/is-microsofts-windows-phone-at-long-last-dead/

Microsoft THINKS ITS DEAD TOO! LoL ....witness more desperation by microsoft:
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/01/29/microsoft-to-invest-in-rogue-android-startup-cyanogen/

Only pathetic astroturfers see life in the WP corpse!

AndThisWillBeToo

I see the trolls got back from vacation. Pity, there was nice conversation going on.

Tomi T Ahonen

Gonzo

Hey, seriously, if you can somehow decypher Samsung smartphone or handset business performance from the financials and any other detail honestly, feel free. I won't delete the analysis even if it discusses the profits if you explain what smartphone unit/market share data we can draw out of it, including product portfolio mix. Even just major bold trends, that is also fine. We ARE trying to understand what is going on, from a handsets, smartphones, units, model types, price points, and yes market share point of view.

What I will not have on the blog is a daily debate about what do we think about the sudden 2% spike in Apple's stock price and then who was right predicting that last week and should I buy Google now or sell Microsoft. That is forbidden. That may be valuable, that may find fans, that may even provide insights but for our readers that is mostly noise that clutters the issues about the market, the ecosystems, the reach of the platforms and the brands.

So yes, consider yourself blessed to freely do analysis of Samsung's financials, any details you can extract from that, which could give us insights into the handset/smartphone business. Just keep it to the handset side of Samsung and obviously steer away from wall street evaluation tools etc haha. I am very curious to see what you can dig up.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Baron95

Haha yeah, the Apple discussion is now split between here and there. Let me take that point to the Apple thread, ok?

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Stormy

Hi Tomi,

Long time reader, first time commenter.

I take it you are already aware of Microsoft rumoured to be buying into Cyanogen?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-DGB-40241

How much do you reckon it is a sign they're abandoning ship and actively looking to get out of and replace Windows phone? Considering they own a lot of the Android patents, it makes a lot of sense to get behind this.

Also, do you think there is a chance Nokia might get behind Cyanogen? With or without Microsoft?

Keep up the good work.

AndThisWillBeToo

@stormy
It's not as much news as you would think if you had followed changes under Nadella's rule.

http://news.softpedia.com/news/When-Microsoft-Says-It-Loves-Linux-Does-Linux-Has-to-Say-It-Back-462830.shtml

Tomi T Ahonen

Stormy and AndThis

Yeah I noticed but I felt it was still 'noise' level minor investment by Microsoft, not really worth me bothering to post about that as a story in itself. But it may signal something.

I don't think we can count out of Cyanogen (only partial investment in it and I think it was that MS was only joining in a group of investors) any direct signal that MS is preparing to abandon Windows Phone. I think it is a 'safe bet' type of investment where Microsoft can bet into a technology which is the future (Android, not Cyanogen, obviously).

But that point by AndThis was very good and something I had forgotten that yes, there is an interest in the Microsoft CEO towards Linux which seems far more genuine than that in the past say under Ballmer.

Nokia haha? Who knows. I think the tablet on Android was a strong signal Nokia wants to return as a phone maker. If they do their phones in the future as a premium slice of Android flagships manufactured by Foxconn or someone like that, then its just a play on the brands's power. If they use that idling phone factory they still own in India for example to manufacture 'real' Nokias, then it would be a huge signal they want to fight in the big contest. They have tons of intellectual property and customer insights etc but not the headcount to design and market a broad line of smartphones in all markets. I am very sure - say 80%-90% confident that Nokia will launch a smartphone the moment their exclusion period is done (I think that was January 2016) and then it will be interesting to see what their real intentions are. Remember also that Nokia loves the tech comeback story (turning around Siemens Networking and Motorola networking businesses that Nokia bought when they were unprofitable)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

PS Stormy,

You're not Stormy are you (from way back way way WAY back?)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Stormy

Hi Tomi,

I don't think so - I've run my mouth on plenty of fora but its my first appearance here and I believe my first time interacting with you :D

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Stormy

Yeah, you'd have known what I meant. For one season as a university student in the USA, while serving on the debate team, my partner was named Stormy. That was probably before you were born haha.. But as its quite a rare name, and you said 'long time reader' - I did have to ask haha.

Cheers, looking forward to hearing more comments and questions from you in the future

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Catriona

@Stormy, that's a very interesting post. Now that a touch-optimized version of Office has launched for Android (and STILL hasn't launched for Windows), perhaps we will see Microsoft explore other options. I know they still want to play up the idea that we'll be using converged devices running Windows 10, but with Windows Phone getting no traction, they need to do something. Microsoft isn't the type of company to give up on something before spending a lot of money trying to get it right.

Catriona

@Gonzo, are you a financial analyst? If so, I'd be interested in your best guess about Samsung's handset mix last quarter, too. Hopefully between all of Tomi's data and that of other analysts like Ben Bajarin we can figure out what's going on there and what that means for Android. If they are on a trajectory to being just another Android OEM then I think Google's efforts to reassert control over Android will work and we may even see a closed-source mobile OS from them in the future. Bajarin has a tweet that the next version of TouchWiz has scaled back the bloatware to "near Nexus levels." They need to support things like S-Pen on the Note, and of course the curved second screen on the rumored Galaxy S6 Edge, but it only makes sense to keep doing that if those models sell well. Otherwise, why not just do what Motorola did and essentially install stock Android?

AndThisWillBeToo

You can now lose your worries. Samsung has turned the tide! In January there were 5 different galaxies on top 10 most sold phones list in Finland which clearly shows the Apple calendar Q4 2014 was an anomaly and does not last.

http://www.puhelinvertailu.com/uutiset/2015/02/02/myydyimmat-alyuhelimet-suomessa-tammikuu-2015

Oh and /s.

deadonthefloor

@adi purbakala

Skype, Exchange->PBX integration, locking down the OS. These are the reasons Windows phone is failing.
You must remember that most telcos were at one time large mainframe shops who scoffed at MS success up until their products and services started to cannibalize telco revenues.

Then with the fallout between IBM (OS/2) and MS (Windows) most begrudgingly adopted Windows based solutions for the enterprise.

It's this legacy of burning telco over and over that have MS in the tough spot behind Google (+OEM stable) and Apple.

The lack of customization is what keeps OEMs from licensing, while Telco feel no obligation to help it succeed due in no small part to MS in direct competition in various platforms and services.

While this may not be entirely related to Tomi's analysis of the data, I believe there is some merit in this rant.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

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