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« I Dream the iDream: my iFantasy is yes an iCamera. And isn’t it about time Apple did another iRevolution of a stagnant major global industry like cameras? (updated) | Main | Bloodbath News: LG reports final 2014 number, also outside Top 10 we have Lumia number, and some thoughts about Samsung Q4 (without their number). (Updated) »

January 28, 2015

Comments

falito

388 million smartphones in Q4 2014, according to Apple 19.2% of marketshare an increase of more than 21% from previous quarter for a total of 60 million smartphones, who sold those 30 million of additional smartphones besides Apple???. Well Not Samsung, Xiaomi, LG, Lenovo or Huaweii, then who??'. According to the infamous Nokia/Microsoft, the 10th spot place of bloodbath in the last 3 quarters were Q1 Microsoft with 7.1 M, and Q2 & Q3 for Sony with 8.8 and 9.98 Million respectivily; So now Microsoft have 10.4 million and is irrelevant??? Lets face it Apple marketshare for this quarter its 20.5%.... Sammy didn´t sell 90 million and maybe maybe Microsoft it´s back on the Top 10.

Maggan

Samsung is in no trouble, they have an A+ rated strategy.

/M

Tomi T Ahonen

What is this new parlor game now on the blog about where I did not hit precisely the exact point of a forecast?

Where I got the TREND correct, I got the TIMING correct and I was among the MOST accurate forecasters CONSISTENTLY. And you bitch about me missing ONE PERCENTAGE POINT when I am not an Apple forecasting specialist and most Apple specialists were far more off than I was (again). Hey, guys, this is silly.

I said Apple has to increase its screen sizes (and people on this blog argued that Retina Display etc..). After Apple finally did do the increase from 3.5 to 4 inches, I said that wasn't enough anymore and they had to go bigger (again big protests on this blog). I wrote on this blog a year ago that Screen Size Trumps Everything and again urged Apple to give bigger screens, now we finally have them.

But my 175 million unit forecast for Apple 2014 year performance was not offered late in the Christmas season. That forecast was published first on this blog on July 23, 2014. I said 14% for iPhone for 2014 and 175 million units. This was before Apple had launched TWO larger screens that I had already said would BOOST sales for iPhone. And where did Apple end? At 192.7 million with a market share of 15%. So you are bitching about me being off with 1% market share? Well fuck you all. If you cannot appreciate that I was THAT accurate from JULY to the full year, when Apple's fresh numbers showed 12% market share and FALLING at the time for Q2 April-June quarter, even as Apple had not announced even one, far less two iPhones with larger screens that I had CLEARLY said on this blog for YEARS that if Apple ever did larger screens that would INCREASE their sales, and you can't accept my 14% forecast to be a good indicator, then go fucking fuck yourselves and stop reading this blog.

For the record. My 175 million and 14% market share prediction from July was not altered in public two days before Apple's results to 70 million. I said clearly on this blog in comments on Jan 12, 2015 that based on the fresh Kantar numbers I had upgraded my Q4 Apple forecast to 70 million. AND only 5 of 35 Apple specialist forecasters managed to be more accurate than me. Check out their past records, which of them has EVER been consistently more accurate than me on iPhones forecasts? None. And most of those 35 specialists that Forbes collected into one table, published their iPhone number AFTER my 70 million, and still, with more data available than me, had forecasted a lower number. Only 5 of 35 Apple specialists were closer to the real number than I was. You want to bitch about me not being 100% perfect? Fuck you! Stop reading this blog.

This parlor game is valid if the error is in any way MEANINGFUL. The moment you see me with a forecast that most forecasters got right, and I got wrong, then yes, laugh all you want. But if only 5 of 35 Apple specialist forecasters are better than me, then no, that is not any cause to claim Tomi is wrong. No forecaster is always right. That is not possible. But this parlor game ends here now. If you have a legitimate beef, go ahead. But who said the iPhone 6 will not restore Apple to the heights of its success in past years? I said the iPhone 6 series came too late and this year's Q4 will not be a new sales record by market share - while I ALSO SAID it will be Apple's best quarter ever in total sales, revenues and profits. And I was totally correct. iPhone unit sales were a record, Apple revenues and profits were a new record. And yet the market share did not reach the past heights of Q4 quarterly market share. Apple only achieved 19.2% market share for this past Q4, when in 2011 at this same quarter iPhone had 23.4% market share and in 2012 in this same quarter iPhone had 22.0% market share. WHO ELSE WAS THAT ACCURATE IN SEPTEMBER?

So yes. You want me to say 'mea culpa' that in JULY I predicted 14% for Apple 2014 market share when the reality was 15%. That in forecasting is considered excellence. That is not failure. And far more importantly, I correctly forecasted the direction, the market share is down. Please show me which forecaster from July or before was closer to the real number than I was with 175 million forecasted in July. Don't play this game further on this comment series unless you can supply to me someone who was more accurate than that.

With that preamble, I will respond to some who posted comments.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

KPOM

On 5C/5S yes, I said before the split in the product line, that Apple had to split its product line and offer a cheaper model to attract first-time buyers and cater to emerging world markets. I said this should still be a premium smartphone. When Apple finally did change from one new iPhone model to two, with the iPhone 5C and 5S, then they kept only a slight price differential between those two models. I argued this will not help them regain market share, as it did not. So they did fulfill the strategy change (from one to two models, with price difference) but executed that poorly, so they ended up not picking up market share that I had suggested this strategy would yield. But note the 6 series. It is learning from the price differential mistake. There is far more difference in the prices of iPhone 6 and 6 Plus. This is the right WAY to execute that product line management, now they will do that in 2015 for the update for the 5C and 5S models into the 6 generation. They are slowly proceeding to exactly what I suggested they should do. With hesitant half-steps, but EXACTLY what I suggested they had to do. And because they delay so much, they are abandoning vast swaths of customers that were out there for the taking. So its again money left on the table (for a company that just set the world record for biggest profits in a quarter, so I am bitching about silly cherries on top of their magnificent cake).

Incidentially, if iPhone 6S or 6C will cost 700 dollars, then there has been no evolution of the pricing strategy 'closer to my original Nano product concept'. But if the new 6S or 6C cost 600 dollars or less for 6C then yes, they have executed the nano pricing idea but by going ABOVE the prices to establish a price differential rather than below. Same end result except more profits and less market share. More short term gains, less long term success. Ie typical American management 'short-termism' that Wall Street is regularly blamed for.

Then on Samsung. Come on KPOM, I have been quite critical here that Samsung is not executing well (recently). But this is a cut-throat industry where MOST major rivals regularly report LOSSES. Apple is a niche player like Blackberry and Lamborghini etc. They only have to satisfy their niche. Samsung is the biggest of the mass market players. Samsung is the ONLY mass market rival who has not reported a loss in their smartphone unit this decade. When you remove Apple from consideration, Samsung is CLEARLY the best of the rest in terms of running its handset business. Therein lies the dilemma, Samsung is suffering - exactly like Nokia was under OPK - from unflattering comparisons to Apple the niche phone maker. Its like comparing Toyota cars to Porsche. Come on, thats not who they are. So KPOM, will you accept that no other handset maker has in the years 2010-2014 performed as consistently well as Samsung? Big profits every single quarter. Their 'problems' are now an alarming decline in both profits and unit sales, and that happens in all competitive industries from Boeing vs Airbus to Coca Cola vs Pepsi to the car industry, TV industry, PC industry etc. That is normal. But don't you agree, that Samsung is the best of the rest, if you ignore Apple.

Then back to my thesis, Samsung's number 1 competitor is not Apple, it is Lenovo. With the other Chinese in tow from Huawei to Xiaomi to Oppo. Apple's top competitor however IS Samsung and its Galaxy line. And Apple is winning that war easily right now and if they execute it well, they can hold their position as easily as Mercedes Benz holds its profitable position above Lexus unit at Toyota. Yet Lexus (generally) boosts Toyota profits to exceptional degree haha...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Lullz

@Tomi

"But my 175 million unit forecast for Apple 2014 year performance was not offered late in the Christmas season. That forecast was published first on this blog on July 23, 2014. I said 14% for iPhone for 2014 and 175 million units."

People are probably confused because that was not your only forecast for iPhone sales and you also made several others during 2014. Some here, some on twitter and some here on the comments. It's really hard to understand what's the official forecast and what's not. Personally I would count every forecast as official since I have no way of knowing what was something else.

It's not even about changing the forecasts but understanding what's the valid one. If I forecast today that product A has a market share of 20% this year and then make another forecast in May that it will be 15% and then switch back to 20% in August, what did I actually forecast? I would say that the forecast was about 20% but it wasn't made in January but in August because I had another forecast made in May, invalidating the previous one.

Pekka

Tomi!
Why you say in comment about if apple make bigger screen, they will have record profit, record revenue, record sales. Than make a blog post on the 23 december that apple will ONLY ship 57 million Iphones in 4th quarter?
You are completely contradicting yourself :)

Lullz

@Tomi

"Same end result except more profits and less market share. More short term gains, less long term success. Ie typical American management 'short-termism' that Wall Street is regularly blamed for."

The market share and future profitability. This is an interesting one.

What would happen if Apple would just decide to go with almost zero margins and start pumping out massive amount of iOS devices on all price categories? They could easily resume production of iPhone 4S class devices and sell those for $100 without doing losses. They could even redesign iPhone 3GS with slightly improved iOS 6 and start selling it for $50 without losing money.

If we just think that Apple would want to gain as much market share as possible, how much would they be able to gain?

If Apple would remove the limits from App Store and allow all kinds of apps, adding memory cards and similar cheap features that would not really add the cost of the devices, how much market share Apple would be able to get?

Assuming that they would be able to get the production capacity.

Maybe the cheapest price segment would be out of the reach but with a $50 iPhone Apple would be able to reach really low segments.

Tomi T Ahonen

Baron95

Ok good points. Most of all, yes the key issue is that Samsung's lead over Apple was 2 to 1 in 2013, its now only 3 to 2 now. Apple has pulled closer. Yes, that is the key lesson in the market share wars and the Koreans are certainly totally aware of it and their plans not just for Galaxy but also their new Alpha metal-body series are no doubt planned to address that fact. As I've written several times now, Samsung marketing is not achieving what they should expect. They throw tons at the process and have very little to show. As Android is the run-away bestselling OS, and Samsung has the broadest range of prodcuts in the Android world, they should rather easily keep as top dog. But like we know the last Galaxy flagship did not fulfill its promises. Hey, all companies see that. Mercedes gave us the A-series once haha, a car so dangerous you could not drive it in any corners... Nokia did the N97. So yeah, give Samsung a bit of slack. If the next Galaxy is hot once again, they are fine. BUT if Samsung can't fix Galaxy problems, THEN we may see a 'cliff' phenomenon haha, they might fall as fast as Motorola did if they are not careful. Be the next Palm haha.

Baron but 'momentum is on Apple's side' no. You mistake unit growth with market share loss. A rising tide lifts all boats, even those that leak. Apple is NOT growing even as fast as the industry. That is not momentum. Xiaomi has momentum. Huawei has momentum. Lenovo (through buying Motorola) has momentum. Apple is losing share, not growing as fast as the industry. This is the same phenomenon we saw with... NOKIA in 2009-2010 period. You are now mesmerized by the wrong metric. Apple does not have momentum, it is not keeping up with this break-neck speed industry. The market share is down again for the full year 2014. No Baron, this is not winning, this is slightly losing the war (while enjoying a ridiculous party along the way with temporary world-record profits)

Now on 'Nokia is safe' yes, that is what I wrote. That was TRUE until Elop destroyed it. Nokia set the WORLD RECORD profit for any mass market handset maker in its handset unit in any quarter, the last quarter before the Elop Effect. Only a pure smartphone maker, Apple with its niche market had ever reported a bigger profit than Nokia Q4 of 2010. Not just a Nokia record, a phone industry record. And Elop destroyed that with his mad strategy. So you can't use Nokia as a valid case when its lunatic CEO went on a self-destruction rampage that many call the worst CEO of all time. Incidentially NOBODY called the Nokia saga anywhere NEAR as accurately as I did from every mistake done by Elop.

Then you blame me for being wrong? WRONG? On Samsung? As I wrote and you quoted me Samsung would be "safely in the lead - unassailable" in 2014. DUH? We have not heard Samsung's final Q4 numbers. But even if Samsung sold NOTHING in those 3 months Samsung ends 2014 larger than Apple and safely the largest smartphone maker of 2014. WHERE WAS I WRONG? They WERE safely in the lead and they still ARE safely in the lead. Samsung WON the year 2014, exactly as I predicted. You are confusing Wall Street hysteria, where some investors are upset that their gamble isn't working out as far as they had fantasized, with the market reality that Samsung sold over 310 million smartphones in 2014 and did that profitably. I was totally one hundred percent right. Nobody caught Samsung and nobody is even close to catching Samsung. Apple has its once-per-year leap in its sales then thats that. The next scheduled Apple leap is in September 2015. Apple ain't catching Samsung this year 2015 either. Samsung's lead is safely unassailable. BUT they should not see it erode as much as it did in 2014. Samsung is not growing anywhere near the speed of the industry, so they DO have to do something. Just like Nokia in 2009 and 2010, they are not EXECUTING well. In the long run this could kill them. Not in 2014 or 2015 though.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Pekka

No. That Lumia shipment projection for Q4 is HALF PERIOD. go read the blog. I said I projected till mid-November to sell 6 million Lumia so full Quarter, October to December is TWICE that, ie 12 million. Microsoft Lumia disappointed me severely in that period not doing typical Nokia Christmas bump sales and only did 10.5 million. I was off. Not 6 million to 10.5 million. I was off 12 million to 10.5 million. Go read the blog again. I say VERY CLEARLY that EXACTLY matching the Microsoft 50 million activation number, I had taken HALF of the Christmas quarter number, that I had projected based on past Nokia Q3 to Q4 performance history. So I was not off by 4.5 million and nearly half. I was off by 1.5 million ie my error was 12.5%. On the small scale of those players outside the Top 10, that is considered very accurate forecasting.

My Apple 175 million / 14% market share forecast is not made on December 23. That forecast is published on this blog on July 23, 2014. Go find me any other forecasters who made a more accurate full-year iPhone forecast than mine, published during the month of July or before it.

My change to the 70 million Q4 number was not made as you claimed 10 hours before Apple's results haha. What is your obssession. You are sounding like one fanatical Tomi-hater who once trolled this blog. I said clearly ON THIS BLOG in the comments on January 12, 2015, that BASED on FACTS, I had altered my forecast, as any good forecaster does. But most will not draw attention to the fact they changed their forecast, I do. And I gave the reasoning what promted me to change my number so my readers can consider that point too. In this case it was that Kantar market share data from a couple of countries that signalled a stronger Apple quarter than previously expected (by ANYONE, not just me).

So Pekka, please, go check that info, and please come back and acknowledge that your accusations were baseless. I trust your comments were in good faith, but now when you see that was the case, i also expect you to be the gentleman to acknowledge, your accusations did not have merit.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Lullz

@Tomi

You say

"Baron but 'momentum is on Apple's side' no. You mistake unit growth with market share loss. A rising tide lifts all boats, even those that leak. Apple is NOT growing even as fast as the industry. That is not momentum. "

And

"Now on 'Nokia is safe' yes, that is what I wrote."

Are you saying that Apple is safe or what does that mean? Nokia was also losing market share in 2010 and the decline started way before the end of 2010. You could argue that the full year market share was not really that low but is was less than Nokia's share of all phones. Another way to look at that were the forecasts for 2011 and at the time not even you were forecasting Nokia to gain market share in 2011 compared to the market share they had in late 2010.

Tomi T Ahonen

Gonzo

Wow thanks! Great numbers and yeah, that helps put the Apple Watch into perspective. So the luxury watch segment, Rolexes and Tag Heuers and Patek Philippes in gold and platinum they won't see much erosion but some who have SEVERAL luxury watches and use iPhones may get an Apple Watch out of that tiny slice.

The premium watch segment is where Apple Watch needs to find its market. You had it at 70 million units. If Apple was able to take 10% of that, it would mean only 7 million per year. In its first year the iPhone sold 10 million units. The iPod did a far better first year (I forget what their final number was). The Apple Watch is limited to start with, that it is not designed to work alone, without an iPhone. So we are looking only at a 'slice of a slice'. iPhones have about 15% of the smartphone market - if we use that as an analogy of the premium watch market (probably have strong overlap, most who can afford a premium watch will also already own a smartphone but not the other way around obviously) then that 70 million addressable market is down to 15% ie 10 million (premium watch buyers who also own an iPhone today). Now it becomes a very tall order to think Apple could steal say half of that market (5 million) in its first year. A couple of million, sure Apple superfans, iSheep will stand in line overnight for any iToy. But will they like it, will they continue to wear it, and at this price, is sustained sales beyond the first weeks going to last. I don't think so, And the second version, will disappoint as many who bought Apple Watch 1.0 will not return to buy 2.0. I am confident Apple Watch will die after version 2.0. And I said that before, and will say again, on this blog, and you can come back in 2017 to see if I was correct haha and we can talk about it then...

Seriously, thanks for the numbers I really apprecaite it. I am not an expert at all in the modern watch industry or its metrics

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Gonzo

(Sorry, was too fast) Yeah the other part, iCamera. Thanks for the comments. Yes, I agree with you that carrying a second device will not give the scale needed. That is exactly why stand-alone camera biz is in decay while cameraphone sales are soaring (cameraphones outsell stand-alone cameras by about 15 to 1 currently). It is exactly that point you make, we don't want to carry more gadgets in our pockets, so the optional gadgets get left at home. Then when the big picture opportunity arises, we grab for the smartphone and use what was the only camera available at the time.

This is a phenomenon familiar to the handset industry that I have chronicled in my books for more than a decade now haha..

But that is EXACTLY why the iCamera is a break with tradition. By being a full iPhone, the iCamera will be sold by carriers/operators in handset stores, vast scale advantage over camera and electronics stores (who will ALSO sell the iCamera of course). And being a full iPhone - it becomes the DEFAULT phone we carry. Everywhere anywhere. Replacing the Galaxy or Lumia or iPhone we currently have in our pocket. For Apple existing loyal customers its their next iPhone upgrade model - vastly bumping up the price they are willing to pay. And even more importantly for Apple, this is now a way to expand iPhone ownership to new buyers who don't have iPhones yet. RICH ONES. Not the race to the bottom of the price pyramid.

So yeah, I agree with you but the strategy I outlined would expressly address that issue. It would be the primary smarphone for the iCamera buyer not the second device to carry around. Does that change the way you see it now?

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

GUYS GUYS

LeeBase, KPOM..

just stepping in. Come on guys. Apple did NOT grow 46% iPhone sales 2013 to 2014 (that WOULD be good). This is QUARTERLY performance fluctiation. Apple grew 25.6% from 2013 to 2014. Now, both of you are regulars here. Don't fall for this quarterly blip. We've seen this same movie now six years. Are either of you SERIOUSLY suggesting - and willing to put you name here on a comment - that Apple is gonna grow 46% from 2014 to 2015? So iPhone sells 280 million units give or take a couple of million? SERIOUSLY is that what you are thinking. Or is this normal Apple noise in its yearly sales and Apple will grow only about 25% and sell 240 million iPhones this year? (that is about what I think).

Hey, seriously, both of you and anyone else sipping Apple cool-aid. iPHONE DID NOT GROW 46% from 2013 to 2014. Their growth rate fluctuates WILDLY from one quarter to the next. Apple grew 25% from 2013 to 2014. Don't be fooled by this nonsense even if some idiots on Wall Street blogs are now forgetting their math.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

RottenApple

Haha, good comments and interesting point. Now Apple has kind of fixed its last glaring omission at the top end. Yeah, where can they go from here? Next iPhones are updates to these model ranges, the obvious gaps are (mostly) filled. I am having a hard time imagining any other than iCamera (or QWERTY) version that could give a big new bump to iPhone in 2015 for Christmas. Yes, obviously we'll get new models but the hunger is mostly haha, fulfilled. It will be interesting to see how that peak is next Q4 and the numbers we'll look at this time one year from now.... good point I hadn't thought of that. Maybe my iCamera has even more merit than I thought haha...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Lulz

Haha thanks for reminding us about that old blog I wrote back in 2011 'Nanothoughts for an iPhone 5 world'. You are hung up on a few details. That was a thought exercise and I gave more specifics of how a split in iPhone models could (and should) happen. First, at the time Apple only released one new model per year. Obviously my suggestion that Apple should split its product launches to 2 models per year did happen and now is the rule. You'll see there was plenty of resistance in the comments at the time to this, what now after the fact seems 'obvious' strategy move.

But consider the concept that I outlined. Forget the exact PRICE points I used. I said the OPTIMAL strategy (in 2011) was not just 2 models but splitting the model range to 3. One roughly updating the current iPhone model. One cheaper simpler model - with smaller screen. And one superpremium iPhone with best camera, and largest screen ever. We now (late 2014) have THAT exactly situation. You go to the store, there is the new mainstream iPhone 6. There is a cheaper 5 model from last year - with its smaller screen. And there is the new superduper expensive phablet screen supercamera iPhone 6 Plus with its radical new top price. Assuming that Apple does update the 5 line this year to 6 status (NFC etc) while keeping its price below the 'base' iPhone 6 model - if that happens, the main points of my strategy have all been fulfilled by Apple but 3 years later than when it was obvious for Apple to pursue. The only quarrel is with my price points. That is the trade-off that I've also explained to great length here already that if Apple keeps the prices of its cheapest models very high, they don't gain the market share they could. That is their choice, and they clearly choose to limit the potential scope of iOS ecosystem for the short-term gains of temporary hyperprofits. So be it. I prefer the larger ecosystem and bringing great technology to the world's total population not only the rich....

But if you re-read that blog and skip the price levels. Everything else did happen already. AND what is Apple doing - slowly - with its pricing strategy. It is SLOWLY moving in the direction I outlined. SLOWLY. And I can appreciate that. They don't want to make the mistake of dropping prices too fast or raising too far, for fear of a pricing change that is then permanently fixed in the minds of consumers. Thats ok. The direction of Apple IS in the direction as I outlined in that blog, but in the exact price levels, its not there (yet). It is however moving into the direction. The price differential of the 6 Plus vs 6 is now bigger than it was between 5S and 5C.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

AndThisWillBeToo

@Tomi
I'll call your bluff:
"Nokia set the WORLD RECORD profit for any mass market handset maker in its handset unit in any quarter, the last quarter before the Elop Effect."

Nokia Q4 2010 handsets profit: 1,018M EUR
Nokia Q4 2010 handsets profit (non-IFRS): 961M EUR
vs.
Nokia Q4 2009 handsets profit: 1,219M EUR
Nokia Q4 2009 handsets profit (non-IFRS): 1,257M EUR

http://company.nokia.com/sites/default/files/download/investors/request-nokia-results2010q4e-pdf.pdf

In comparison we can mention Q4 2007, which was 2,594/2,541M EUR respectively. Handsets unit only.

http://company.nokia.com/sites/default/files/download/investors/q4-2008-earnings-release-pdf.pdf

Tomi T Ahonen

enyi

Good points but you are mistaking Samsung smartphone sales to be all Galaxy class premium smartphones. Most of Sammy smartphone sales are well below Apple's price levels. So if you were correct that Samsung now lost the top end, they still did sell 310M+ smartphones in 2014, 50% more than Apple and obviously mostly at the lower price points. And Samsung did this with the best profits this side of Apple itself. Nobody else has any chance of selling profitably mass market smartphones at such scales, Lenovo, the next biggest smartphone maker behind Apple has said it will take them 2 years to turn their Motorola loss-making unit into profits. Apple doesn't sell cheap smartphones. Microsoft's Nokia unit is still unprofitable. Nobody is even on the horizon to threaten Samsung's bread-and-butter mainstream smartphone business, even if they lost ALL of the top end to Apple. It does hurt, gosh it hurts, if Apple steals all that juicy profit of the flagship races, but Samsung isn't about to implode. Apple is not even threatening their main phone business, only the top of Galaxy class.

Now, South Koreans are nothing if not competitive. I do expect Sammy to come back roaring this year with a fabulous top flagship or two to take it back at Apple and suddenly everybody will be crying how Apple could be so left behind. That is normal in competition. Samsung is HEALTHY. Its handset business is profitable. The investors are crying when they noticed they invested in a fantasy that Samsung was the next Apple (Which it is not). Samsung is the next Nokia and they should be happy. It will be a regular reliable profitable market leader for years to come, in the style of say Hewlett Packard was in PC market forever. So if you were right, thats not the end of Samsung smartphones, it would only hit them at the top. What is the secretary in Kuala Lumpur going to buy? A cheap Samsung smartphone, they can't afford the iPhone. And Samsung's massive sales and marketing organization churns that product out reliably with good competitive specs that the rivals can't keep up. Nokia continued to make profits on its basic phone business almost through the whole Elop mess. So even if what you say is totally true - and I don't think its that bad - even then Samsung the phone maker/smartphone maker is not about to do a Motorola or Palm collapse for us haha.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

AndThis

Hey, that is again a low blow. You know perfectly well year 2011 is the anomaly when NOBODY, not even the Nokia Board who hired him, could imagine their new CEO would go on the rampage to destroy Nokia's handset business.

Wanna go see my forecasts for 2010 or 2012 or 2013 or 2014 and find how 'wrong' I was? Or why not reference the ADJUSTED forecast I made AFTER we learned that Nokia's CEO decided to burn some platforms?

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

LeeBase

So you quote me and thats the best you can do? "the iPhone market share for Christmas 2014 and Spring 2015 will be worst its been in years"

We don't have Q1 numbers but we do have Q4 numbers, the iPhone market share is worse than 2012 and 2011. It was not worse than 2013 by market share. I'll take that as pretty good forecasting. Others were publishing big press releases that they counted iPhone now in China is selling more than in the USA haha. So badly off, that Apple had to ADDRESS that issue and say its not true. Yeah. So I missed one of the past 3 years, you really want to draw attention to this as Tomi being so unqualified and bad at this forecasting racket?

And you quote more from me "Yes the iPhone will set a new sales record of course for Christmas but its market share will be the worst the iPhone has seen for many years and the total annual market share for 2014 will be somewhere down near 14%."

What are you, my publicist? THAT IS NEARLY PERFECT. New sales record. Check. Market share down. Check. Annual market share 'somewhere down' check. Near 14% - was 15%. Check. So you bitch about this as being wrong, LeeBase? What is your problem now, seriously? LeeBase, come on. I was off by one percentage point. ONE PERCENT. You are not man enough to come here and say, Tomi that was once AGAIN a good call on Apple. No, you quote me and claim I was massively off?

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

AndThis

I am not deleting LeeBase's comments. I once did when he was deliberately abusive to me, I warned that if he continues, I would delete all his PAST comments, to which LeeBase then came in to challenge me on that, and I did.

LeeBase you may jump in at any time to admit you deliberately were being annoying to me that day and that you dared me to delete your comments.

I have not deleted any of his comments since, AFAIK, unless he slipped into profit discussions recently haha. So AndThis, don't make accusations about me that are not true. You know I will not tolerate that. You may freely disagree with me, you may not state lies about me on my blog. Thats a fast way to get yourself booted from here, forever.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati