Handset Market and Installed Base in 2014: The Total Handset Picture by Communities Dominate Blog

So its that time. Every year I publish the TomiAhonen Almanac in the Spring and do the big mobile industry statistics blog article. And every two years, in the Autumn, I publish the sister volume, the TomiAhonen Phone Book. That has just been finished, and it always looks at the ending year stats (while the Almanac looks at the starting year) so this is what the world of handsets looks like in 2014. All the stats you ever wanted.. if this blog is not enough for you, then you gotta dig into your wallet for that 9.99 Euros and start paying for more detail haha...

BIG BIG PICTURE

So the world sells 1.95 Billion mobile phone handsets (smartphones and dumbphones combined) this year, again a new record. Nothing else comes even close in consumer electronics or other such industries, not TVs, not computers, not music players not videogaming consoles, not wristwatches, etc. Who are the biggest? For the year, including dumbphones and smartphones the Top 5 brands are:

Top Phone Manufacturers of 2014 in units and market share (and 2013 number)
1 . . Samsung . . . . . . . . 370 million . . . 19% (20%)
2 . . Microsoft-Nokia  . . . 190 million . . . 10% (14%)
3 . . Apple . . . . . . . . . . . 175 million . . . . 9% ( 8%)
4 . . LG . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 million . . . . 8% ( 9%)
5 . . Lenovo-Motorola . . 100 million . . . . 5% ( 4%)
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . .950 million . . . 49%
TOTAL in 2014 . . . . . . 1,950 million 
Source: TomiAhonen Phone Book 2014 (preliminary estimate of full-year sales based on 3 quarters sales data and trends for Q4)
Above data may be freely shared

Total handset sales are up 3% from 2013. Note that the market share stats are of course preliminary for 2014, we will know the exact numbers in about February 2015 but I've used the actual data for the first three quarters of 2014, and with recent trends and Q4 of 2013, have estimated Q4 of 2015. These numbers are very close when we use the rounding-off levels up to nearest 5 million units. But yes, of course this blog will also have the final 2014 full-year stats when they can be calculated in two months from now. But the Phone Book always makes this preliminary projection for the full year numbers based on the first three quarters of info for the year and its always been close to the mark.

Now, if you need more details like regional splits of the handsets more brands than the top 5, market shares in other ways such as by revenues etc, then you have to get the Phone Book 2014. There also is data on the continental split of where phones are sold as well as the 8 regions I use to give more detail on various data poins. But I have a lot more free info to share with you here today. Lets move first to the smartphones. Last year we passed the point when more smartphones are sold than dumbphones. This year two thirds of all phones sold are smartphones. So lets look at that market a bit more in detail. 

SMARTPHONES 2014

Top Smartphone Brands of 2014 in units and market share (and 2013 number)
1 . . Samsung . . . . . . . . 330 million . . . 26% (32%)
2 . . Apple . . . . . . . . . . . 175 million . . . 14% (16%)
5 . . Lenovo-Motorola . . . 95 million . . . . 8% ( 3%)
4 . . Huawei. . . . . . . . . . . 75 million . . . . 6% ( 5%)
5 . . Xiaomi  . . . . . . . . . . 60 million . . . . 5% ( 1%)
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . 525 million . . . 42%
TOTAL in 2014 . . . . . . 1,250 million 
Source: TomiAhonen Phone Book 2014 (preliminary estimate of full-year sales based on 3 quarters sales data and trends for Q4)
Above data may be freely shared

Yes the smartphone market grew by another massive 25% from year 2013, exactly as I promised on this blog and against all those clueless 'experts' who were suggesting a saturation in the smartphone market. Samsung is safely the largest smartphone maker shipping nearly twice as many smartphones as number 2, Apple. Apple's iPhone is also safe in its position nearly twice as big as number 3, which is the new Lenovo after its Motorola unit sales are added into the Lenovo total. The rest of the Top 5 are also Chinese brands, Huawei and Xiaomi.

Again if you want historical diagrams of how the various brands did, if you need to see more than the Top 5, if you want regional market shares across the continents and the regions that I always report the stats on, then you've gotta get the Phone Book 2014. So what about those OS wars?

OPERATING SYSTEMS

Android won this war.

INSTALLED BASE BY OS

Then what of the installed base? There are some lingering Symbians, some Blackberries and if you look real hard, you'll even find some Lumias on Windows that are in use. Not enough to sustain any real 'ecosystem' beyond the rich users of iOS and the mass of the mobile OS market that runs on Android. Here is the installed base of the smartphone OS platforms at the end of 2014 (ie the only really relevant chart for any developers)

Top Smartphone OS by Installed Base end of 2014 in millions and market share (and year 2013 number)
Android . . . . . . 1,600 million . . . . 75% (64%)
iOS . . . . . . . . . . 395 million . . . . 18% (19%)
Windows . . .  . . . . 46 million . . . . . 2% ( 3%)
Blackberry . . . . . . 45 million . . . . . 2% ( 5%)
Symbian . . . . . . . .25 million . . . . . 1% ( 7%)
Other . . . . . . . . . . 20 million . . . . . 1% ( 2%)
TOTAL . . . . . . 2,200 million 
Source: TomiAhonen Phone Book 2014 (preliminary estimate of full-year sales based on 3 quarters sales data and trends for Q4)
Above data may be freely shared
NOTE: the above chart reflects update bombshell Microsoft news that only 50M Lumia handsets have been activated out of 76M shipped, so Windows Phone market share real installed base had been over-estimated by about 1/3

Yes Android now just keeps padding its lead and as its demolished the other rivals from Windows to Symbian to Blackberry to bada, it now is taking share even from iOS as the Android installed base market share starts to approach its global new sales share. What helps iOS is of course that the iPhones are still so desirable, they have a far longer life in the second hand market (similar to Nokia and its Symbian and totally different from say Windows and Lumia which many people can't wait to get rid of - or to quit using them as phones and only use them for the cameras or media players as stand-alone unconnected units, obviously not at all of use to any developers in the 'ecosystem' haha). While yes, there is data on the regional splits of the various OS platforms, who cares. If you do Android you have most of the market. and in the rich industrialized world, you obviously need to do iOS as well. Nothing else really matters, nothing else is large enough to care.

PRICE PYRAMID 2014

So then lets look at the price pyramid of new phones sold in 2014. This is what that looks like:

Price Pyramid of New Phone Sales 2014
Premium Smartphones costing over 450 US dollars . . . . . . . . . 20%
Mid-price Smartphones costing between 150-449 US dollars . . 12%
Low-cost Smartphones costing between 40-149 US dollars . . . 33%
Ultra-cheap phones costing less than 39% US dollars . . . . . . . 36%
NOTE: these are real prices when handset subsidy is removed
Source: TomiAhonen Phone Book 2014 (preliminary estimate of full-year sales based on 3 quarters sales data and trends for Q4)
Above data may be freely shared

Clearly the growth in the handset market is at the bottom end of the smartphone market but there is also a peculiar pattern, the mid-price segment is now smaller than the premium segment. That is very rare in any competitive industry and it suggests there is room for far more expensive phones to be sold than the current lineups. I think Apple's cautious move up the price points with the iPhone 6 models reflects this truth but there is plenty more room towards the 999 dollar and above price levels for true premium phones with advanced features. Lets see if anyone will explore that type of phones (I am reminded of the Nokia Communciator series which often cost over 1,000 dollars. I wonder if Nokia might return to that segment now on Android next year with a true superphone?)

But yeah. Again given for free, the handset price pyramid globally, again on the CDB blog, where else? The global average price across all phones sold in 2014 is 191 US dollars. For Smartphones its 287 US dollars in 2014 and for dumbphones its 24 US dollars. If you need more info on that dimension, like Average prices by type across the regions or price trends over time, then read the Phone Book 2014.

HANDSET FEATURES

This is the more fun part now. How many phones have a touch screen or a good quality camera or how many are phablets etc. The features part is fun info in the Phone Book and I always share some of the findings in this review. Lets look at what kind of phones are in use globally:

Features In Use Globally On All Handsets (Dumbphones and Smartphones)
SMS support . . . . . . . . . . 100%
WAP or HTML browser . . . 97%
Color screen . . . . . . . . . . . 97%
MMS support  . . . . . . . . . . 87%
Camera. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85%
Bluetooth . . . . . . . . . . . . . .83%
Memory card slot . . . . . . . .80%
HTML browser  . . . . . . . . . 79%
Java/Brew support  . . . . . . 69%
Touch screen . . . . . . . . . . 40%
Smartphone . . . . . . . . . . . 37%
Source: TomiAhonen Phone Book 2014
Above data may be freely shared

Yes its an astonishing place and so many smartphone app developers are stunned to discover that Java actually reaches 3.9 Billion mobile phones worldwide - twice the number of all Android and all iPhone smartphones in use, combined. MMS now reaches 4.9 Billion pockets so if you are a brand or advertiser or media company that uses SMS, why not include color pictures, videos, links, QR codes, sounds into your messaging and reach 87% of all phones in use on the planet and almost 100% of the phones in use in the Industrialzed World. The consumer thinks its an SMS so they don't need to be taught to do anything, they know how to open an MMS and they know instinctively how to respond - because its the same way as an SMS. In fact most consumers don't know the difference so if you send them a branded MMS message like an airline ticket for example, the consumer just looks at it in amazement and thinks, I didn't know you could put color pictures into SMS text messages... Perfect evolution to your SMS strategy. And I need not remind readers that SMS is the most used data application on the planet with 4 times more active users than Facebook for example on mobile phones.

So thats the summary of the major features from the Phone Book 2014. If you need less used features like GPS or QWERTY keyboard or WiFi or dual SIM etc, that all is also in the Phone Book 2014. There also is a plethora of details about 3G and network standards and cameras and screen sizes etc. Also the Phone Book 2014 has info on regional migration from dumbphones to smartphones as well as the penetration rate of smartphones per active subscriptions in the region. Now lets move onto perhaps the most popular aspect of the volume, the Digital Divide.

DIGITAL DIVIDE

I am studying the differences in the mobile industry how the Emerging World has its differences and similarities to the Industrialized World when it comes to mobile phones and the mobile industry. For example this year 2014 among my several international conference speakerships in the USA, Europe and Asia, I also spoke at various mobile industy conferences in the different regions of the Emerging World, in Latin America in Ecuador, in Asia in Nepal, and six times in three different countries in Africa: Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa. More than half of my consulting work is now in the Emergiing World countries. And I try to share lessons I learn and obserations I get to make with that exposure that obviously differs often greatly from what I know and have seen in countries I have lived in like Finland, USA, UK and Hong Kong. So in the Phone Book 2014 (just like in the Almanac 2014) there is always a whole chapter dedicated to that analysis. A chapter that looks at how the market is in the Emerging World, for which we rarely get solid data. Here is a snippet of the market info about the installed base of handsets in the Emerging World from that chapter:

Comparison of Handset Market Industrialized World vs Emerging World in 2014
ITEM . . . . . . . . . . . . INDUSTRIALIZED WORLD . . . . EMERGING WORLD
Population  . . . . . . . . 1.2 Billion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.9 Billion
Mobile Subscriptions . 2.1 Billion (175%) . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 Billion ( 88%)
Unique Subscribers . . 1.1 Billion ( 92%)  . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 Billion ( 63%)
Handsets in use . . . . 1.7 Billion (142%) . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 Billion ( 67%)
Cameraphones . . . . . 1.7 Billion (142%)  . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 Billion ( 49%)
Smartphones . . . . . . 1.0 Billion ( 83%) . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 Billion ( 19%)
Source: TomiAhonen Phone Book 2014
Above data may be freely shared

So there you have it, the only free source online that gives you this kind of breakdown so you can understand how different the Emering World markets are from the more familiar 'Western' Industrialized World markets when it comes to the handsets and the overall mobile industry. Again far more data in the chapter on Digital Divide such as handset features, market data like average revenues, comparative data to other technolgoies etc all split into the two regions across the Digital Divide.

MUCH MORE DATA 

There is very much more in the Phone Book 2014 such as employee/business phoens vs consumer phones, data cards/dongles, a whole new chapter now on tablets which includes phablet data, and of course the chapter on the app store economy etc. There are tables summarizing the 60 major handset market countries worldwide including the national handset market sizes and their market value plus the locally leading handset brands both by dumbphones and by smartphone for each of the 60 countries. There is also a discussion of the three strongest handset companies (Samsung, Apple and Lenovo) including their global revenue splits across the eight regions that I use to report all regional data.

All data and tables in this blog may be freely shared and used in any context. I appreciate it if you do use any data in an online article that you include a link to this blog. In print, please indicate that the source is the TomiAhonen Phone Book 2014 from which all data in this article were excerpted.

For those who want the brand new pdf ebook TomiAhonen Phone Book 2014 which only costs 9.99 Euros, please follow this link (and don't worry as it currently still discusses the previous 2012 edition, I will of course ship you the 2014 edition not the old one. The price is the same and this new edition actually is slightly longer with a bit more charts and tablets than the 2012 edition)

Comments

[Tester]

@John F:

Yeah, sure. Samsung certainly has done some serious missteps in the past year, and they also got burned by the Chinese offensive. They still made good profit this year. They will certainly analyze what went wrong and work on it.

If there's something Samsung is not, it's being short of money. Most importantly, Samsung is creating lots of different products, they can afford some section to underperform for a year or two.

If this came from Apple, things would indeed be different, because iOS is Apple's major source of revenue and profit. If that tanked, Apple would be in serious trouble because they are far, far less diverse than a huge conglomerate like Samsung which can cross-finance their divisions if some run into temporary trouble.

In that regard, Apple is a lot closer to Nokia, with a very narrow spectrum of products to offer, and far, far more sensitive to problems with these products.

[RottenApple]

It says a lot that the ones who claim that Samsung is in trouble are all staunch supporters of Apple and its insane profit machine...

Let's be clear: A company is in trouble when it makes losses over multiple quarters.
Samsung just had a decline of profits. That decline was inevitable, considering that the entire smartphone market will have to adjust to lower prices. Samsung had to be the first 'victim' of this development by default, because they offer devices in all segments of the market.

I just wonder what will happen with Apple, once the rest of the market firmly establishes itself in the sub $250 segment, even for phones that are currently considered 'premium'. If we have a look at the PC market, yes, Macs cost more than Windows PCs - but not THAT much more. For a good model you pay maybe $200 more.

If we translate that pricing to mobile it's quite clear that Apple's current pricing of $100-$150 about the Android premium segment is just in the same range. But I have my serious doubts that they can afford for this to grow larger. Buying a $700 phone that's on the same level as a competing $250 phone is hardly a compelling offer as the price difference easily overshadows the migration costs.

So what should we conclude from this:

Apple cannot afford that the premium Android segment dries out. If it does, the price difference just becomes too steep that it may sway those customers who are not too thoroughly locked into their 'ecosystem' (or, as I prefer to say: 'poison pond'! :D )

I think that this is something that gets grossly overlooked by many iFans. Apple's products still need a baseline to compete against - if their prices have no bearing compared to the rest of the market, the product will be of less interest to some of their current customers.

I think premium phones only sell so well because many users haven't realized yet how good lower mid-range phones have become by now. Two years ago this was a night-and-day difference in performance and I think we can safely assume that this same assumption is still being made. But as it stands, many of these phones my company has bought over the last year for application testing are really getting close to more expensive models. So this has to initiate a downward spiral in pricing rather sooner than later, but if that happens, Apple's phones will suddenly be twice as expensive as all the competition - and that's just not going to work out unless these costs are hidden in convoluted contracts with subsidies - which we all know are a dying business model in most parts of the world.

[Gonzo]

@John F.

You are comparing apples to oranges, but there is some truth in your comparison.

Like Microsoft, Apple is an ecosystem approaching a billion devices ( Microsoft build the empire with around 1.3 billion ), from computers to services, hardware and software, payment systems and interlocked devices and even now apparel and fashion ( Tag Heur calls the iWatch a Tsunami, the people who KNOWS calls it a Tsunami ).
It took 30 years for Microsoft to shake a bit and now they are re inventing themselves, Apple is not going away anytime soon but it is very little understood as a company because people compares them to Samsung ( of all companies !)

This is a pro android and pro samsung/android blog, you have never seen and will never see any incendiary statement or headline about Samsung/android, even when things get red hot.

Now, in mobil, Samsung became just a commodity trader, their phones are already just that, a commodity and loosing that huge % in China just shows that the aspirational company the hoped to build is just not going to happen. Keep in mind that China is the largest market for everything, you might be number "last" in Portugal and Senegal, who cares, but China is critical, so the "some truth" in your statement is that Samsung, like Acer are just raiders of the android wave, who in reality rules and dictates and controls the ecosystem, like Microsoft did.

What people struggles to understand is that a billion user ecosystem is self sustainable and that the loyalty and aspirational branding of apple like that of Porsche ( even Tomi acknowledges that) is unique and has been around for over 30 years and counting BUT they are in their re inventing mode just for a few years.

Don't waste your time discussing that over here, it's like telling a BB user like me that the keyboard is outdated, hahaha !

[RottenApple]

@Gonzo:

"Don't waste your time discussing that over here, it's like telling a BB user like me that the keyboard is outdated, hahaha !"

For me that sentence translates to 'I am right and you are wrong, now shut up!

What you Apple fans fail to understand that Apple is in absolutely no position that can compare with Microsoft. Microsoft owned the PC desktop market - there just was no way to get around them.
That's not how mobile is. The only metric in which Apple is the undisputed leader is profits. Not market share, not app deployment and in most countries not even app revenue anymore.

All it needs to bring this down is for someone else to bring the next iPhone-like disruption.
That's entirely different from Microsoft. Even the mobile disruption did little to endanger their core business, all the problems they have come from getting sidetracked by some investors' wet dreams of infinite mobile riches.

Re. China:

Yes, it's the biggest market, but it's also the one where you are completely at the mercy of the government's whim. If they want you out they fix the game to get you out. End of story. I wouldn't draw any conclusions for the rest of the world from what happens in China. The Chinese upstarts will have enough problems to sell their product elsewhere. Their reputation is not really the greatest in countries where people have sufficient access to free information.

[John F.]

@Rottenapple

You mention

not app deployment ( 1 )

and in most countries not even app revenue anymore. ( 2 )

Apple is the ONLY company that reports numbers in such exact and detail way

( 1 ) December 10/2014 - The companies, Apple and IBM plan to introduce the first products of the partnership on Wednesday, an initial 10 apps of a portfolio that may eventually include 100 or more. The apps, delivered as a cloud service, are focused on specific tasks in a handful of industries, including airlines, banking, retail and telecommunications.

( 2 ) App Store Downloads Top 85 Billion, Revenue Up 36 Percent Year-Over-Year. Apple CEO Tim Cook announced today during the company’s FY Q4 2014 earnings call that Apple’s cumulative App Store downloads have now topped 85 billion up from 60 billion around a year ago. The number was announced alongside news of Apple’s massive quarter, and its record-breaking sales of the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus devices.

Wow, that took me 2 minutes, the information is just there, it seems to me that there is a bit of bad blood towards apple in your statement, can u please document your claims with solid data.

Regarding China, you are right regarding the government but how do you explain Apple selling 20 million plus Iphone 6/6plus ? That one is a apologetic explanation showing again bad blood towards apple, you could have said that Apple appeal in China is on the raise and the Chinese went nuts for it while Samsung's fortunes were hurt by Xiaomi but choosing to blame the government of China for Samsung's fall is not correct.

Don't take me wrong, I am not defending Apple or Xiaomi, just want facts backed up by data, Asymco and Tomi are doing it but your comments suggest that you just need to contradict even what is factual, just look at the data regarding the apps ... App Store Downloads Top 85 Billion, Revenue Up 36 Percent Year-Over-Year.

Tomi mentioned a pyramid, in Apple's ONE and ONLY segment they have over 45% market share, another fact that you just dismiss with a "no market share"

A bit confusing they way you handle a discussion, as some facts are in this blog.

[RottenApple]

@John F:

"Tomi mentioned a pyramid, in Apple's ONE and ONLY segment they have over 45% market share, another fact that you just dismiss with a "no market share"

Yes, the pyramid is distorted. Yes, Apple is one of the reasons for it.

However:
Such a distribution is not normal. In any healthy market the premium segment features less strongly.
So my simple hypothesis is that this will correct itself over time here, too. Which would not be good news to Apple.

Apple is no magic entity that can endlessly defy all business logic, which you people blindly take for granted.

[John Alatalo]

I suppose you can say Android have "won the war" so to speak. And IOS are in the high end with their devices.
But I think its to early to say that Microsoft is out of the game.
Especially in markets like India, there are around 4 Indian manufactors who make Windows Phone 8.1 smartphones now.
(check them out in Flipkart site)
And Nokia/Microsoft will lower the prices to with a new Lumia 435.

Windows 10 will be the same OS in tablets and smartphones to.
So it be interesting how it goes.

[John F.]

@Rottenapple

Hoping not to sound to pedantic you seem to believe that investing 500 dollars in a pocket computer that practically runs your life is a life changing moment. For around 10 % of the population is just as expensive as a pair of good shoes with the main difference being you keep it in your pocket and not to protect you from doggy poop and it last for a couple of years or more at least.

For a larger part of the population having that branded phone is an status symbol, and saving 500 dollars is not difficult, the secretaries in our company spend twice that per quarter on new fashionable stuff

Just look a the huge amount of branded whatever and the prices, so 500 dollars is really peanuts for status branding.

Still not clear about your sources as to Apple and the statements of " not app deployment, and in most countries not even app revenue anymore"

@exnokian

It seems to me that Tomi has some good information in this blog but you seem to be able to prove him wrong. What is a bit odd to me is his inability to give bad news about samsung and his meteoric speed to give it about Apple, Nokia or Microsoft.

[RottenApple]

@John F.:

What you don't seem to realize is that at the moment the entire decision making gets distorted by subsidies that make expensive phones look cheaper than they really are.

Another matter is that people are not used to $200 phones being capable of most of what the more expensive ones can do. That was vastly different even two years ago when a $200 phone was a low end piece of junk.

So:
- remove the price fixing by subsidies - some of Apple's current customers will shop cheaper.
- let reality sink in that for most people - even most among Apple's current users - the $200 phone will work perfectly for their needs - they will shop cheaper.

This has always happened in all business segments once the novelty wore off and mainstream product's prices sank. Yes, the premium niche remained - but it remained as a niche. If Apple keeps prices high they will lose market share.

I don't believe in fairy tale magic that tells me that Apple is the sole company in the entire world that's immune to the natural flow of things.

[John F.]

@rottrnapple

where there is an opportunity to make money there is a business model that benefits.

This is what Verizon CFO had to say some months ago:

Speaking at a Deutsche Bank-sponsored conference on Media, Internet & Telecom, Conference, Verizon CFO Fran “Don’t Call Me ShamWow” Shammo explained that “We believe that the subsidy model is an extremely good one… It’s done wonders for us in this industry. I think that to abandon it is a mistake.”

If they walk out of what some call subsidies and others credit then that subsidie/credit will migrate from the telco to banks willing to make a few points or a fee. There is some good many to be made financing it, it's bilious in sales a year, some % to the financier is always welcome

Just go to any shop selling TVs, computers etc, check the plans.... 24 months etc. That's how people buy stuff. I bought my new computer and my new TV with a small down payment and a monthly payment

Again, you seem to believe that subsidies are the reason, they are just the facilitator, kill it and someone else will take it's place , we live in a credit world. If I have to pay the telco or my bank for a 500 dollar credit for a new pocket pc I can care less, just make financing available et voila, there goes the shopper. So very simple.

It would not be surprising that some financial institutions are like vultures, waiting to take over or to factor the telco bills .. ah the capitalist world.

Louis Vuitton, Lacoste, Versace, Gucci, Rolex, Cuban Cigars, Champagne, Lexus, Mont Blanc, Armani, Dolce & Cabbana, club fees, Green fees ... all seem to contradict you.

Apple is not inmune because they simply do not participate in the samsung business model, they just target 10% of the market that mostly is not concerned with peanuts and the aspirational users will get their credit from the telco (subsidies ) or a financial institution ( credit )

[AndThisWillBeToo]

@ExNokian
You forgot my favorite: when Tomi wrote his The Comprehensive App Economics Blog 2014 post he DID provide sources and he got this comment:
"I wrote the VisionMobile report used extensively here. Please don't butcher our numbers."
(followed by list of misinterpretations in Tomi's numbers). It's still there:
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2014/08/the-comprehensive-app-economics-blog-2014-yes-peak-app-is-apt-name-sheer-disaster-industry-with-only.html?cid=6a00e0097e337c883301a73e0a8974970d#comment-6a00e0097e337c883301a73e0a8974970d

[Gonzo]

@John F.

See, what I told you, you prove rottenapple totally and absolutely wrong when you pointed out that Apple reports their numbers and that app deployment with IBM and the HUGE growth in apps were by all standards breathtaking considering that Samsung closed their service already and what he has to say ? And did he come back to you with facts as you did to him?

He is a Troll, will you engage in a discussion with someone who openly hates blackberry and his nick is deathtoblackberry?

Also, as pointed out, Tomi is a hit and miss when it comes to predictions, in the political arena … well, let's not get there, in a market he doesn't know anything about he dares to predict a flop when Tag Heur and Swatch are already getting ready for a tsunami, it can flop, but base on what or what data he used to predict? where are his statistics? what strategy he suggests to success as the one from Apple is dead on arrival according to him? or is it just hate for everything apple? Not even a doubt based on ipod, ipad and iphone ? that they took off a couple of years after introduction? Like Ballmer laughing about the iphone ? that was an embarrassing flop.

By all standards loosing a Market like China, over 4 quarters of profit declines, 40% unsold inventories ( that they acknowledge !), absolutely and totally dependant on google, no plan B if sales collapse ( well, plan B is sell more refrigerators and cut on mobile spending), closing stores, closing mobile services, loosing market share ( THE thing that matters here) ….. no echo system to develop, just plastic handsets … nothing else … just that and what do you hear Jonh F ? That apple will collapse soon, one crazy Abdula predicted 2Q for Apple to be gone … he also said that he would feel embarrassed if his child took a liking for Apple … extremism.

But what you do not read is … oops … it seems that Samsung strategy is backfiring and that it looks similar to … "choose name "

Go and check the headlines … Apple, Nokia, Microsoft bloodbath and death … but Sami goes to Disneyland

[AndThisWillBeToo]

And back to the "ecosystems" part of news: GMail is blocked through all protocols in China. AOSP will remain king in there.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/29/us-google-china-idUSKBN0K70BD20141229

[RottenApple]

@John F.

Re.
Speaking at a Deutsche Bank-sponsored conference on Media, Internet & Telecom, Conference, Verizon CFO Fran “Don’t Call Me ShamWow” Shammo explained that “We believe that the subsidy model is an extremely good one… It’s done wonders for us in this industry. I think that to abandon it is a mistake.”

I'm really not surprised. Of course the subsidy model is great if you want to rip off your customers. Seems to be par for course in the US to treat customers as shit, in order to 'maximize shareholder value'. The problem is: This only works as long as the entire market plays along. If some competitor starts to disrupt it, people will quickly learn that they get ripped off and look for alternatives. Guess why in Europe with its strong competition among carriers this isn't nearly as widespread as in the US. Here you can buy transparent contracts at nearly all price points without being tied to a phone. Sure, you can buy a phone with a contract on a financing plan but these are normally so outrageously expensive per month that you need someone who completely fails at math (or suffers from a dire lack of money) to fall for them.

"Apple is not inmune because they simply do not participate in the samsung business model, they just target 10% of the market that mostly is not concerned with peanuts and the aspirational users will get their credit from the telco (subsidies ) or a financial institution ( credit )"

And you again are completely ignoring the fact that in heavily subsidized markets, Apple's current penetration far exceeds the customer group you cite. Yes, the 10% true luxury buyers won't care but what about all the average Joes that buy a subsidized iPhone in the US which under more levelheaded conditions would be more price conscious and shop cheaper? THESE are the people I predict may defect Apple. But if these mass market customers go away so would a significant portion of Apple's current appeal. Remember: Apple's market share in the US is closer to 40 than to 10% - way, way above 'luxury niche' and therefore incorporating lots and lots of customers that have to be considered 'normal' people to be judged by 'normal' business rules.
I can tell you with certainty that the stuff my employer sells in Europe makes 55% of its revenue on Android, 40% on iOS and the rest spread out across the smaller platforms. So sure, the iOS users tend to buy more individually but these days Android has become our first platform to target. Two years ago this clearly was iOS. And THIS is where things will head long term. You cannot afford to put priority on a platform only being used by a minority in your target markets. You have to prioritize the platform that generates more traffic.
If US companies don't learn that and continue to project the warped realities of the US market onto the rest of the world they WILL ultimately lose out to those who accept these realities and act accordingly.

@Gonzo:

I choose to ignore your bullshit post.

@AndThisWillBeToo:

And the point being? With such antics the Chinese will ultimately only harm themselves. There's nothing to gloat about. This can hit anyone who gets the Chinese government's ire. Sadly, for some people only money counts so that corrupt regime can do as it wants because in order to get the money those people happily cave in... Pathetic.

[AndThisWillBeToo]

Here's just for the records: Some analyst with a name (unsurprisingly not Tomi) calling that Apple will be largest smartphone vendor on one quarter in 2015 as Samsung tanks and Apple does not.
http://t.co/2YGED6eoO6

[KPOM]

@RottenApple, John Legere at T-Mobile posted a blog entry with some interesting statistics:

http://newsroom.t-mobile.com/issues-insights-blog/2015-predictions.htm

Apparently 41% of new phone purchases in the US in 2014 were unsubsidized, and that number is expected to rise to 2/3 by 2016. If you are correct, we should expect to see a fall in iPhone sales in the US over the next 2 years. Granted, the iPhone 6 did spur the "mother of all upgrades" (to use Tim Cook's words), so it likely led to a spike that won't easily be repeated next year or the year after that. But all else equal it will be interesting to compare sales data to see how well iPhone demand holds up.

[John F.]

@Rottenapple

You agree with me by disagreeing, interesting. the subsidies OR credit is a great model, maybe you never visited the USA or Japan, please understand that 500$ is peanuts today, that almost anyone has access to credit cards and therefore small credit, that any financial institution will immediately do factoring for those bills. Remove subsidies ENTER credits. Think, how many cars, motorcycles, holiday trips etc are sold yearly? and you made it even more clear that in the USA 40% of users are willing to go brand and aspirational. The estimated people with disposable income has been put around 800 million people, expensive brands have been around for a long time, cheap handbags, shirts, watches, cars, etc didn't kill Armani, Hermes, BMW and Rolex, all the opposite, the more expensive they get the more desirable they are.

Last, Samsung, Sony, HTC, Moto etc will do all possible efforts to keep the subsidies/credit model growing, do you think they are stupid and wish to sell cheap phones ? They really need it. It is in their strategy to copy and succeed doing what apple is doing, they even open shops to sell directly to users with credit cards....

@Gonzo

You point out the apple watch, interesting that the T-Mobile CEO defines it as the "I believe that the Apple Watch will mark the tipping point when wearables go from niche to mainstream" why would Tomi call it a flop?
Your comment hit a nerve, as the apple apps have really outperform and all data proves success.

@KPON

if " Apparently 41% of new phone purchases in the US in 2014 were unsubsidized" then it proves that 500$ is an acceptable price for a small luxury, because in the USA is sells a lot, in fact an iPhone is the cheapest aspirational article in the world, thinking about it now help me explain apple success, go for a Rolex or BMW ? a Louis Vuitton handbag? Armani Suit? There is no aspirational brand that delivers so much for so little money, food for thought.

[Gonzo]

@John F.

This is the comment of the year in this blog, it really says a lot and it is probably the best explanation for the Apple phenomenon, it says it all and by the way Rottenapple did not respond your question regarding apps and apps store… he won't, he can't contradict those facts you stated.

" an iPhone is the cheapest aspirational article in the world - There is no aspirational brand that delivers so much for so little money, food for thought."

Again, you are wasting time with the credit or subsidies thing, people here only understand that people in Burkina Faso or Somalia can not buy an iPhone because it's too expensive for them, that credit thing and financial institutions replacing the credit given by telcos is too far out for people here to comprehend.

@AndThisWillBeToo

Great article from techpinions, beware ! A nuts case here called those guys amateurs of all people….. facts that contradict reality are not welcome here, specially if Samsung is on the loosing end.

[abdul muis]

Samsung beat apple in customer satisfaction. It seems the 'magic', premiumness, only-apple-can-do-it starting to wear off...
http://www.theacsi.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=147&catid=&Itemid=212&i=Cellular+Telephones

[sneha]

Pixel 2 XL vs iPhone X