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August 15, 2014

Comments

AppleTurfer

@chithanh - I completely agree that Android is a very strong platform. I also agree that there are benefits to the open, chaotic model. HTC can go out of business and "Android" isn't hurt.

There are certainly far more form factors and price points and screen sizes and feature choices for Android than the iPhone. It is Android, not iOS that is taking computing to the world. We could go on all day about the advantages of Android.

However, ALL of the advantages aren't on Android's side. That's why I speak of there being a duopoly...a stable two ecosystem reality that is the new norm.

As for innovation -- having lots of players does NOT guarantee better innovation. After all these years, if "lots of players" equaled "far more innovation" then the iPhone would have been put in the dustbin of history already.

On the other side of chaos is order. Apple controls almost the entire verticle stack allowing innovation not possible to the constellation of players in the Android ecosystem. Apple controls it's chip design, it's os design and much much more. Plus, much of Android innovation are companies trying to differentiate from other Android players such that they are reinventing the same wheel rather than contributing to forward movement of the platform.

Then, even when you get true innovation -- it's not "Android" innovation (if it's not from Google). So if you like the S-Pen, you must go with Samsung. If you write apps that would take advantage of the S-Pen, your market is limited to those Samsung people with that particular model.

Android has advantages. iOS has advantages. Android has weaknesses. iOS has weaknesses. It's a great time to be a fan of technology

abdul muis

@Baron95

"They think that people who buy iPhones and Porsches are fools who overpay when they could be driving a Toyota and using a cheap ZTE phone. They have no concept of what a "retail experience" is or what a "service experience" is or what a "total product experience" is."

LOL. You really 'smart' when creating hype. The problem with this statement were iPhone compares to android device is NOT porsche vs. toyota. It's more like Honda vs. Toyota vs. Nissan, or Mercedes vs. BMW vs. Audi. That's the problem for Apple, because apple were thinking like you that their in the premium segment by themselves, and the rest is rubish. While the truth is their competitor also know how to make device as good as them, and even better than iphone. BTW, I just want to make sure you know that THE HIGH QUALITY screen apple use, is MADE BY SAMSUNG. THE HIGH QUALITY camera apple use, is MADE BY APPLE. Apple is just one of the many company using component made by others!!!

abdul muis

correction... THE HIGH QUALITY camera that apple use, is MADE BY SONY!!!
(sony!!!)

abdul muis

@AndThisWillBeToo

"Do you realize how twisted it makes things?
Do you realize how damaging it is for this forum that comments referring to profits and profitability are deleted?"

"When did Nokia have that kind of money? When did HTC? Yet they BOTH were "bigger than Apple" not so long ago. (And their sales prices could be thrown on top of that group too.) Profits matter."

That's the beauty of android. If Android only depend on HTC (or nokia or any other company). It will go down into dodo land when that company do wrong. Android is great because it have 1000 lives. Whereas apple with big profit/money could be toast like nokia or blackberry when it did one simple mistake.

AppleTurfer

@abdul - you know what else Androids and iPhones have in common? Price. The flagship Android phones cost the same or more than iPhones. Of course, with Android you have the option for cheap, crappy phones too. But if you want one of those top Android phones like a Galaxy Note or Galaxy S....you will spend the same as an iPhone.

You are right that a Galaxy S and an iPhone are like Honda vs Toyota. Very similar. And guess what else...Apple has about a 40% cut of this "Honda" class phone market and is getting a stronger hold, not weaker.

But most Androids being sold are Yugos and Tatas and Samsung makes them too. Apple doesn't

AndThisWillBeToo

@abdul muis
You are now mixing two topics. I wasn't talking about Android and iOS, I was talking about players like Samsung, Apple and HTC. You have a point there; if someone owns 90%+ market share of an OS (like Nokia with Symbian or Nokia with Windows Phone or like Apple with iOS), their fate is depending on the fate of that OS.

But it's not everything. Let's assume tomorrow iOS is seen as "undesirable" or "outdated" and NO ONE WANT AN IOS PHONE (pun intended). It only hurts Apple. Apple would probably have to introduce its own Android phones and tablets.
As AppleTurfer aptly pointed it out, they could go on for 20 _years_ without selling _anything_, thanks to profits they have made. Nokia with Windows Phone ran out of money in two years while selling every single phone they found a buyer for.

abdul muis

@AppleTurfer

You're absolutely right that (some) Android flagship were priced similarly to apple flagship, but you were wrong about Apple getting stronger.

You need to know that in order for apple to getting more sell is by EXPANDING THEIR ??COVERAGE?? (I don't know the exact term). Year after year, apple get more country/carrier. Therefore, they got more customer based. In term of density/percentage, apple is getting WEAKER, not stronger. So, it's a two sided metric depending on where you look. And not all iphone is premium. iphone 4/4s/5 is 1 or 2 or 3 generation back premium device. It's like 2011 Toyota Camry (iphone 5) vs. 2014 Honda Civic (android mid/high-range), or 2008 Toyota Camry (iphone 4s) vs. 2014 Honda Jazz (mid-range).

Furthermore, Apple not only expanding horizontally, but also vertically. What the media doesn't really cover is, apple STILL SELLING THE IPHONE 3G, 3GS IN india, indonesia, vietnam, philipine, thailand VERY CHEAPLY!!! This is like selling 4-5 generation back (16-20 years old model) toyota to fight against brand new Hyundai/Kia (mid-ranges).

So, reading this product 'curve', I believe apple is in big trouble. Sonner or latter apple has to introduce more than 1 device per year, and discontinuing product after 1 or 2 years. otherwise, apple will be blackberry or nokia.

abdul muis

@AndThisWillBeToo

"But it's not everything. Let's assume tomorrow iOS is seen as "undesirable" or "outdated" and NO ONE WANT AN IOS PHONE (pun intended). It only hurts Apple. Apple would probably have to introduce its own Android phones and tablets.
As AppleTurfer aptly pointed it out, they could go on for 20 _years_ without selling _anything_, thanks to profits they have made. Nokia with Windows Phone ran out of money in two years while selling every single phone they found a buyer for."

I agree that the problem is only the iOS and not Apple!!! But I disagree with what AppleTurfer said. IT'S NOT THAT SIMPLE!!!!! You don't know how the market works. First, if apple got red, the stock went down, after several down in price, and the company value reduced, the stock holder will get angry. Even though apple still hoarding that BILLIONS OF DOLLAR, if apple doesn't have anything new, and the company value already down a lot, APPLE WILL BE FORCED TO RELEASE THE MONEY BACK TO INVESTOR. I believe there is a law about this, but i'm not sure if it's applicable to U.S. company. and the management team will be replaced (remember OPK, Balmer, Basile/Lazardis).

abdul muis

correction...
I agree that the problem is only the iOS and not Apple!!!... IF apple dare to use android if their iOS got busted... BUT I don't think it wont happened.... Apple will prefer die rather than using android...

RottenApple

@AndThisWillBeToo:

"As AppleTurfer aptly pointed it out, they could go on for 20 _years_ without selling _anything_, thanks to profits they have made. Nokia with Windows Phone ran out of money in two years while selling every single phone they found a buyer for."

Expanding on abdul muis's response:

"if apple doesn't have anything new, and the company value already down a lot, APPLE WILL BE FORCED TO RELEASE THE MONEY BACK TO INVESTOR. I believe there is a law about this, but i'm not sure if it's applicable to U.S. company. and the management team will be replaced (remember OPK, Balmer, Basile/Lazardis)."

Indeed. Don't ever think that Apple's cash reserve would protect them from an imploding market.
There's already some sharks out there just waiting for Apple to show some attackable weakness to get to that money. Should the stock price plunge due to some iOS-related problem they will have to use every penny of that money just for the fight to keep alive. We are not talking about investors here that are interested in the well-being of the company but those who are in for the quick buck. And Apple, with its huge cash reserve will be a prime target for those. And the inflated expectations Apple is burdened with wouldn't even require a total implosion of their mobile business, no, since the market basically expects Apple to overperform, just some inevitable dip in sales may suffice to launch an attack.


Huber

@AndThisWillBeToo/ Apple Turfer:

Do not underestimate the power of hedge fonds:

In 1992 George Soros kicked the UK out of the European currency system, even though the UK tried to defend itself.

Yes, George Soros was more powerful than the bank of England!

In 1997 (IIRC), Thailand and Russia were attacked, they couldn't defend themselfes, too.

Such an attack could take place e.g. in this form:

- Apple performs below expectation

- Stock markets overreact, this means Apple's shares are falling more than justified by their profit numbers

- This is the time investors are starting to buy Apple stock. The goal is to force the management to give the cash reserves to the shareholders

==> Now Apple has to react. The usual way is to use the cash reserves to buy back stock, so that stock prices raise.

If Apple is successful, they still have investors who only care about the cash they want to have. This means that each time Apple shows some weakness, they will attack to enhance their stock, thereby enhancing their influence.

Now Apple is in a polluted environment: They have to defend agains the other smartphone vendors, but at the same time fight some of their own stock holders.

These stock holders OTOH now try to actively weaken Apple's business to get the cash.

This is not a situation Apple likes to be in.

BB Insider

@AndThisWillBeToo/ Apple Turfer:

What @Huber said is true. Getting attack inside and outside will drain the energy of the company.

abdul muis

"==> Now Apple has to react. The usual way is to use the cash reserves to buy back stock, so that stock prices raise.

If Apple is successful, they still have investors who only care about the cash they want to have. This means that each time Apple shows some weakness, they will attack to enhance their stock, thereby enhancing their influence."

Stock price raise, the greedy investor got the money from selling the stock, cash reserves depleted. When the stock price down a bit again, the greedy investor can buy again the apple share, and the cycle continue......

Huber

@abdul muis: I would really not underestimate the hedge fonds. Some of them can spend billions of $ in a single investment.

If some of them work together against Apple, they are a force to be reckoned with.

Even if Apple can fight off the first attack and the investors are forced to sell their shares, they still made money and hence become even stronger.

Apple OTOH spent parts of its cash in buying back stock, so they got weaker (if they sell the shares again, prices will drop, so they can be probably attacked again).

So even in this case Apple has to worry about a second attack, so still they would be fighting on two fronts, while the hedge fonds simply wait for another opportunity to attack a second time (as long as Apple still has enough cash at hand to make it worth a try).

Such a situation is difficult to handle for any corporation, and Apple is no exception. Also, once they get ripped off by such investors, Apple's aura of invincibility is gone, even if they survive.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Wow, over 100 comments and lively and pretty calm discussion.. you guys are good!

I'm on vacation so only occasionally online. i have read all the comments and will try to find time for some comments soon. Let me just comment on the 'we are not allowed to discuss profits' angle

Someone in the thread explained it pretty well but let me re-iterate. It is a valid concern for readers of this blog, to consider the health of a given player - to the degree that platform may become jeopardized. At that level I do occasionally comment on given smartphone maker or OS maker profitability (usually if they become unprofitable). But as long as the company itself is healthy, the DEGREE of profits is of no interest to developers of apps or services in mobile. Lets develop apps to the guy who makes biggest profits. No. They want to know installed base. Android has 1.3 Billion devices in the wild. Windows Phone has 50 million. This is the relevant point, not which parent, Google or Microsoft has larger profits.

If I allow profit debates here (ie is Apple earning too much profit, will its profits go up or down, what about Google or Microsoft or Sony etc) then we go into that toilet where for every 'buy' stock market speculator there is a 'sell' speculator and we get into utterly trivial discussion here impacted by issues of no relevance to the developers. Which company has more charismatic CEO or a good strategy for the digital TV industry or whatever. That is why I do forbid it. You are advised not to continue those discussions in this thread either. I will see if some of the comments already posted need to be deleted but as I've been on vacation, I will be more tolerant of you kids taking advantage of when the teacher stepped out of the room haha,..

(BTW I just posted a blog about apps economy with the most thorough analysis of all the app store economics stats)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Daniel Ahmad

Tomi, are you going to fix Xiaomi's numbers to 15 million?

AndThisWillBeToo

Can you imagine? In August when new iPhone announcement is around the corner we still have iPhone5S (the too expensive phone) as top selling phone in Finland:
http://www.puhelinvertailu.com/uutiset/2014/09/01/apple_paihitti_samsung_galaxy_s5_n_operaattoreiden_myyntilistoilla
Only phones selling more are cheap phones (where Apple does not compete) with one exception of corporate sector (Lumia 925 as Nokia is still popular in business).

Apple HAS TO introduce cheaper iPhone. They MUST!!!!
LOL.

RottenApple

Finland is just one small country - and it's far from representative for other markets.

Eugene  Lopez

I’ve seen a new crowdfunding campaign that might be interesting.

Bleep – smart charging cable that backs up your data while charging.

http://igg.me/at/bleep

AndThisWillBeToo

@RottenApple
I disagree here. IMHO Finland is in no way some kind of special market where people would overrate iPhone regardless of its high price. Quite contrary, most of the handsets sold in Finland (even from carrier stores) are sold for full price, unlocked (i.e. price is not hidden to monthly fee of subscription) and even if there is a discount in case you also take 2-year contract, it is around 10% of the price of the device, not 80%.

If Apple is losing sales to equally good but cheaper Androids, why is iPhone the most sold handset in a country like Finland?

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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