Early view to Q2 smartphone market share numbers as we get data in - CORRECTED: Nokia (Microsoft) falls out of Top 10

We do have some clear clarity on the Top 10 smartphones that we can do pretty good preview of what it looks like.

 

UPDATE and Correction !!! - Thank you for comment by HonestAccounting. Motorola has surprised us with a stellar Q2 and shipped 8.6M smartphones. As Nokia was on the bubble at 10th before this, and now Motorola jumps back into the Top 10, that pushes Nokia out. You heard it here first Nokia/Microsoft falls out of the Top 10 first time in its history, the inventor of smartphones doesn't fit into 10 largest smartphone makers.

 

 

We have rare Samsung definite (and almsot precise) numbers. nice. Two of the four analyst houses already gave their numbers and a couple of Chinese makers have given H1 numbers (six months) which allows us to do a good guesstimate of their Q2 numbers. So this is the rough ranking and market share of the Top 10:

 

Samsung definitely number 1, at 74.1M units market share about 25%

 

Apple definitely number 2, at 35.2M units market share about 11%

 

Battle for third place is between Lenovo (we don't know yet and Huwaei)

 

Next is then Huawei at 3 or 4, with 15.6M units and about 5%

 

Then fourth or fifth depending on Lenovo is LG with 14.5M units and 5% market share

 

That is the top 5, Lenovo is almost definitely in the Top 5. Note, after the Motorola acquisition is completed, Lenovo leaps easily to number 3

 

Sixth place we have a fight between three Chinese brands: Xiaomi, ZTE and Coolpad. Any one could be sixth, seventh or eighth.

 

Xiaomi we know is 11.7M units and about 4% market share

 

Ninth is Sony at 8.8M units and about 3% market share

 

 

Tenth is Motorola (Google) at 8.6 M units and about 3% market share. Note Moto is in the process of being acquired by Lenovo

 

 

 

Tenth we know is Microsoft-Nokia at 7.7M units and under 3% market share

 

(HTC did not return back into the Top 10, they are under this number, and the other up-and-comings from China and India are not yet big enough to challenge for a Top 10 slot. Blackberry is nowhere even in the Top 12, they may fall out of Top 20 haha)

 

Total market roughly 295M units smartphones in Q2 up about 2% from Q1

 

In the OS wars its 85% Android, 11% iPhone and who cares about the last 4% haha...

 

Thats for you at this stage, I will give full Q2 results when the remaining data is available or can be estimated...

Comments

[RottenApple]

Microsoft sure knows how to generate satisfied customers...

Of course I can understand why they may stop development - the platform is basically dead - but why they decided to entirely kill it - I don't get. Or is WP7 so grossly insufficient that they need to throw the kill switch because otherwise it'd block development for the other, far more important platforms?

[RottenApple]

@ExNokian:

It's a proven fact that any crap can find supporters, so it's hardly a surprise that some people actually like WP.
It's also a fact that WP got most of its sales in the low price segment and everybody knows that many customers of this segment look for price first, quality second. There's also very little customer retention here, those people buy whatever they may get cheap next time. They also may use their phones for far longer than those 'magic' 18 months.

The main problem of the platform still stands: It's not commercially viable. As a software developer I got first hand experience of that myself:

- it causes far more work than Android and iOS combined (thanks to not supporting OpenGL and a few other design decisions that make it necessary to use system specific code instead of platform independent code that works fine on both iOS and Android - even when using some middleware!)
- app sales are sub par. My employer sells some casual games based on a popular local gaming brand, which make good business on both Android and iOS, and even on Mac - but all the Windows versions - phones and WinRT - that's the ones most time was invested in, still haven't made back half of their cost after being on the market for 9 months now - the other platforms did so after 2!

So guess what: For our upcoming project, WP has become ultra-low priority - I got precisely one week allocated to port the iOS/Android code to it - and should I find out that it's not possible - scrap it.

So there's some truth behind 'no one wants a Windows Phone!' - of course a better catchphrase would be 'no one NEEDS a Windows Phone' ;)

[Spawn]

@ExNokian

> 9-12% market share.
> For a year now.

No, its below 3% and falling. Game over.

http://bgr.com/2014/07/01/windows-phone-market-share-3/

> Nielsen

Please give your source. My assumption is you are referring to a years-old report about WP7, correct?

> Windows Phone market share in France actually GREW ... YoY

Yeah, the french guy who bought one device last year bought two this year. Thats YoY GROW by 100%!!!!

p.s. give your source.

> WP apps and their low payoff I have to agree. The advertisement system in WP

Its more that there are to less customers (market share) who buy to less apps (most WP devices sold are low end) what gives to less payoff for investment what results in decreased investment what results in lesser customers what ...

[chithanh]

Spawn:
It is actually true that in some countries, the Windows Phone marketshare reached double digits and sometimes even outsold the iPhone. You can check the Kantar website for data.

However, the 3% global marketshare means that for every country where WP has 10% share, there must be three more equally sized countries with less than 1% share.

10%+ share for one country is often cited by WP proponents to support their arguments. It is not really relevant outside their small bubble.

[AndThisWillBeToo]

@duke
Your caps-filled comment doesn't seem to really relate to any of the previous comments. I count it as trolling more than any of the other comments here.
(my 2 cents)

[AndThisWillBeToo]

@duke
You _completely_ missed my point. Let me rephrase it:
Of all previous comments, none seems to be promoting Windows Phone. At best people are telling that some market has xx% which doesn't mean anything in global perspective.
I checked.
But you do have three comments where you are "annoying the trolls" by repeating the same sentence.

Only troll-like comments here seems to be from you, no?

[RottenApple]

Well, sorry, Duke.

I may agree with your signature phrase but that still doesn't change the fact that you act like a troll who isn't interested in the discussion at all.

[John Phamlore]

Nokia should buy back what seems to have originated from its celluar baseband business from Broadcom.

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2014/02/28/broadcoms-basebands-lenovos-phones-nvidias-tegra-tablet-at-mobile-world/

"... company’s [Broadcom's] baseband processor operations, which it acquired from Japanese firm Renesas Electronics in October. Remember that this operation used to be the internal baseband business of Nokia (NOK), which at one time, as Rango points out, powered half the phones in the world, at Nokia’s peak."

Broadcom might be willing to sell it very cheap since they are exiting the celluar baseband business:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/02/us-broadcom-divestiture-idUSKBN0ED11720140602

"Chipmaker Broadcom Corp said it was looking to exit its cellular baseband business, and forecast current-quarter margins to beat or be at the high end of its estimate.
...
Broadcom on Monday said it would sell or wind down the business as soon as it could, saving some $700 million annually."

Nokia needs this IP because its competitor Ericsson has it.

[AndThisWillBeToo]

@John Phamlore
"Nokia needs this IP because its competitor Ericsson has it."

I fail to see your point. Nokia sold that business to Renesas in summer 2009. How come this has not been a problem during last 5 years?