Early view to Q2 smartphone market share numbers as we get data in - CORRECTED: Nokia (Microsoft) falls out of Top 10

We do have some clear clarity on the Top 10 smartphones that we can do pretty good preview of what it looks like.

 

UPDATE and Correction !!! - Thank you for comment by HonestAccounting. Motorola has surprised us with a stellar Q2 and shipped 8.6M smartphones. As Nokia was on the bubble at 10th before this, and now Motorola jumps back into the Top 10, that pushes Nokia out. You heard it here first Nokia/Microsoft falls out of the Top 10 first time in its history, the inventor of smartphones doesn't fit into 10 largest smartphone makers.

 

 

We have rare Samsung definite (and almsot precise) numbers. nice. Two of the four analyst houses already gave their numbers and a couple of Chinese makers have given H1 numbers (six months) which allows us to do a good guesstimate of their Q2 numbers. So this is the rough ranking and market share of the Top 10:

 

Samsung definitely number 1, at 74.1M units market share about 25%

 

Apple definitely number 2, at 35.2M units market share about 11%

 

Battle for third place is between Lenovo (we don't know yet and Huwaei)

 

Next is then Huawei at 3 or 4, with 15.6M units and about 5%

 

Then fourth or fifth depending on Lenovo is LG with 14.5M units and 5% market share

 

That is the top 5, Lenovo is almost definitely in the Top 5. Note, after the Motorola acquisition is completed, Lenovo leaps easily to number 3

 

Sixth place we have a fight between three Chinese brands: Xiaomi, ZTE and Coolpad. Any one could be sixth, seventh or eighth.

 

Xiaomi we know is 11.7M units and about 4% market share

 

Ninth is Sony at 8.8M units and about 3% market share

 

 

Tenth is Motorola (Google) at 8.6 M units and about 3% market share. Note Moto is in the process of being acquired by Lenovo

 

 

 

Tenth we know is Microsoft-Nokia at 7.7M units and under 3% market share

 

(HTC did not return back into the Top 10, they are under this number, and the other up-and-comings from China and India are not yet big enough to challenge for a Top 10 slot. Blackberry is nowhere even in the Top 12, they may fall out of Top 20 haha)

 

Total market roughly 295M units smartphones in Q2 up about 2% from Q1

 

In the OS wars its 85% Android, 11% iPhone and who cares about the last 4% haha...

 

Thats for you at this stage, I will give full Q2 results when the remaining data is available or can be estimated...

Comments

[abdul muis]

@Tomi

This is interesting. According to the source on the web, Microsoft only allowed to use Nokia brand until next year, and Nokia already recruiting android expert to build mobile phone.

http://www.phonearena.com/news/Nokia-might-jump-back-in-the-phone-business-with-Android-vengeance-job-postings-suggest_id58863

When Microsoft purchased Nokia, it actually got its Devices&Services division, which hosts the Windows Phone Lumia brand, but also the Asha and other low-cost solutions in Nokia's Mobile Phones section. It also acquired the right to use Nokia's brand, and licensed its mobile-related patents for 10 years, with an option for perpetuity extension, also making itself a preferred licensee of the HERE maps suite for a period of four years.

Nokia, however, retained the right to use its name on future products, the HERE maps suite ownership, and its strong patent portfolio. This seems to be enough for the Finns to try and resurrect their former glory, and, if a smorgasbord of new job postings at LinkedIn is any indication, Nokia intends to do just that. The company is looking to hire engineers, designers and camera specialists with a certain experience, for new devices that are coming down the pipeline.

A few of the listings have already been closed, which might mean that Nokia got their guys, but one in particular piqued our interest - a mobile photography engineer with experience writing camera drivers for Android. Thus, extrapolating from the fact that the hiring spree is done by the same team that issued the Nokia Z launcher in the Play Store, we might very well be looking at an Android-powered future for the Nokia that were. What do you think, do the Finns have a chance to stand on their own in the overcrowded land of the little green robot, considering that Nokia's best mobile technologies, like the PureView camera brand, and the ClearBlack display filter, are now exclusive to Microsoft?

[Yuri]

Do Nokia's numbers include Nokia X?

[abdul muis]

Tomi,

IDC put Huawei 2Q2014 @ 20.3 million phone. 4.7 million more phone than your number. How can the different is so massive.
http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS25015114

[Tomi T Ahonen]

abdul and Yuri

abdul first comment - very intereting, thanks! We have to monitor that, but yeah... sounds intriguing. Also squares with some rumors and gossip I've been picking up..

Yuri - we don't have X numbers, Microsoft afraid to give them. I will try to do some estimate when we get all data points in.

abdul second comment - haha, I have no idea what revolutionary mathematics IDC has been using but Huawei said their H1 sales were 34.3M so IDC number is way way off. I have no idea why. Not the first time a major analyst house gets a major public number totally wrong haha...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[HonestAccounting]

Motorola shipped 8.6M Q2;
http://motorola-blog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/some-changes-in-our-leadership.html

[falito]

IN Q1 2014 NOKIA sold 7.1 million with a mix of 79% lumias - 21% nokia x, so the total smartphones for Q2 2014 for NOKIA-MICROSOFT will be 9.75 million. And if you consider this full quarter of Nokia X not partial like Q1, can be bigger. and those 9.75 million smartphones put MICROSOFT in 8th place..

[falito]

abdul, just to notice your comment, this are the reports from IDC= 20.3 Million. CANALYS=20.4 Million. STRATEGY ANALYTICS= 20.3 Million; the mistake of Q1 by this blog was that Huawei sold 18.2 Million when the 3 sources reported an average of 13.46 million of smartphones in Q1 2014. :(

[Paul Ionescu]

Samsung slips and Xiaomi takes China's mobe sales crown

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/08/05/screw_you_samsung_xiaomi_steals_superior_sales_crown_in_china/

[AndThisWillBeToo]

@Tomi
I thought Motorola was supposed to be counted into Lenovo as they bought it from Google?

[zlutor]

@Tomi: something is not OK:

"
Ninth is Motorola at 8.6 M units and about 3% market share
Tenth is Sony at 8.8M units and 3% market share
"

It should be vice-versa then, shouldn't be?

[bubble shooter]

thanks a lot for this tipp (y)

[juegos de caballos]

nbice article , love it, thanks

[falito]

I´m from méxico and only have 3 comments on this blog, that I really liked; and I really appreciate Mr. Ahonen effort. please don´t take me for ExNokian...eeeeeeeeeeehhhhh puuuutttttooooooo

[Stormwatch]

>the inventor of smartphones

That would be IBM, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Simon

[AndThisWillBeToo]

@Tomi
How many of those 7.7 million units shipped by Microsoft are Nokia X? 30%?

[symbolset]

Where is Lenovo getting their money?

They were breaking even (barely) on PCs, bought IBM's client PC biz and lost money on that. Then they bought Google's Moto and IBMs server biz. Where is the money coming from?

[falito]

thiswwillbetoo----those are only LUMIA PHONES,.... NOT "NOKIA X"----THIS is what counterpoint estimates: "Microsoft Mobile shipped roughly under 10 million smartphones in Q2 2014 with almost 8 million Lumias and 2 million AOSP based Nokia X smartphones" ..... u can check onit here-- http://www.counterpointresearch.com/marketmonitor2q14

[Spawn]

@symbolset

Lenovo makes profits, good profits and its raising fast.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/05/22/business/smartphone-sales-help-lift-lenovos-annual-profit-almost-30.html?_r=0

[John Phamlore]

Well that's one way to try and analyze the smartphone market.

Here's another way that I think will lead to more enlightenment: Try viewing the market as more the upcoming struggle between Qualcomm and MediaTek.

Qualcomm has officially won in the United States and will corner that market maybe forever. Broadcom, who actually defeated Qualcomm in patent litigation in 2008, has thrown in the towel on baseband chipsets and is exiting the business:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/02/us-broadcom-divestiture-idUSKBN0ED11720140602

One must congratulate Qualcomm's leadership for successfully using China's desire to have their own version of 4G succeed on China Mobile to broker Qualcomm's full inclusion into the Chinese market. Then again China may be wishing to renegotiate some aspects of their deal:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/24/us-qualcomm-china-idUSKBN0FT0AU20140724

It's MediaTek that is causing future projections of smartphones equivalent to today's that are so cheap they could almost be thrown in as an afterthought for buying other items. Qualcomm probably won't go down that low in price but they are also launching chipsets to enable cheaper smartphones.

The smartphone market is suspiciously starting to resemble the history of the PC market, with differences. Just how many smartphone manufacturers should exist all packaging Qualcomm ARM SoCs, LTE baseband chipsets, and Adreno graphics?

One key difference is Qualcomm's CDMA patent wall that will keep the United States market to itself with guaranteed profits. But don't take my word for it, as Reuters says:

"While most of Qualcomm's revenue comes from selling chips that enable phones to communicate with carrier networks, most of its profit comes from licensing patents for its widespread CDMA cellphone technology."

[Paul Ionescu]

It looks like Skype for Windows Phone 7 will be killed.
http://www.cnet.com/news/microsoft-to-kill-skype-for-windows-phone-7/

Will Microsoft kill Skype for all mobile phones (i.e. Android, Windows Phone, etc.) just to please the network operators (which hate Skype)?