Samsung Shock Number is Official from Investor Relations

We have rare almost-precise smartphone quarterly data from the market leader today.

Samsung just had its investor relations head, Robert Yi give handset numbers for Q2. He said total handset sales were 95 million, and 'smartphone sales were close to 80% of those' as reported by Chron. If we say 'close to' is 78% then Samsung's smartphone sales in Q2 were 74.1 million units. That is down dramatically from Q1 when they sold 89.4 million smartphones. So the decline is 17% in one quarter - a massive fall. Now, yes, iPhone unit sales were down even more than that, down 22% in one quarter but the difference is, that Apple only release new smartphones once per year so they have that 'see-saw' sales pattern. Samsung release new phone models like all other major handset throughout the year, for example the Galaxy K Zoom just came out in Q2, so this fall is more 'relevant' than Apple who has a peculiar annual sales cycle. This is very alarming news from Samsung (obviously also profits down). Samsung's market share is about 24% for Q2 in my preliminary calculation down from 31% in Q1.

Meanwhile the market is increasing. We have already heard from two of the four big analyst houses of handset industry, IDC and Strategy Analytics, who both find growth from their Q1 published numbers - IDC is 5% above and SA is 4% above their numbers they reported 3 months ago. So the market is growing very nicely but Samsung is seeing unit sales falling dangerously fast. Meanwhile there are competitors reporting nice growth such as LG.

This is most definitely time to get very alarmed about Samsung. Lets wait for one more quarter but if you want to panic, you may want to go read this: The Cliff Theory of how handset makers die (they die very suddenly without warning).

Comments

[Tochi Nwa]

This goes to show that market share is a very effective means of ascertaining the health of a mobile company - moreso than ephemral profits.

A fall of 17% is precipitious in this game, it should send alarm bells ringing at Samsung. Any real smartphone fan will not be shocked at this as Samsung has continued to release device after device with less than premium feel made worse by gimmicks and awfully bloated software. They should follow Motorola's lead: cut out the bloat and gimmicks, improve design and play to strength.

Simplify or be doomed.

[E.Casais]

Possible reasons?

1) Samsung focused on the top-tier, which is crowded with competing manufacturers trying to sell highly priced devices.

2) Advanced smartphone markets are saturated and many undergoing a drawn out recession. Thus, I seem to remember that the Spanish mobile phone market had been contracting in absolute terms, i.e. negative growth.

3) Growth for smartphones comes from Third-World countries.

4) From (2) and (3), this means that the segment of low to mid-range devices is more dynamic.

5) Unfortunately, the offering of Samsung in the low to mid-range is not compelling, whereas Chinese manufacturers are offering good devices ranging low to high-mid range at attractive prices.

Otherwise, the trouble with Samsung does not seem to originate from a technical viewpoint: its devices are advanced, feature-rich, have the best cameras after Nokia/Microsoft, follow the Android evolution closely, and are not troubled by quality show-stoppers.

[Gonzo]

Finally Tomi, Congratulations.

As I have been preaching all the time, The race to the bottom is in full throttle and Samsung is going to win, while new comers and come back kids
are going to eat Samsung's breakfast, Lunch and Dinner, and we all know that Apple will eat the dessert Alone.

As mentioned in another post, this was so very obvious, like with compaq and any other market share strategy, eventually if you don't make money you fail.

Clever IBM, Sony etc.. that sold the PC division and even more clever from IBM, to hook up with Apple, you might not agree, but it will pay off big time, this has been
in the works and planning for some time.

Samsung glory days are almost over, hey can Kiss China good bye, a huge loss for them, Apple will only sell there to the 10% with $$ regardless of market share
mumbo jumbo, clearly paying off

Predictions for rest of the decade failing a few days after predicted.

Write it down, end of the decade Samsung might still lead BUT not even close to your predictions

[Tochi Nwa]

The knives are out for Tomi. Blunt knives :o)

[RottenApple]

Hardly surprising.

The Galaxy S5 was a major disappointment.
I even found the iPhone 5S mostly underwhelming but the SGS5 was even worse compared to its predecessor. Not even remotely worth an upgrade, and even coming from the SGS3 it'd make more sense to choose another option.

As for Samsung's low end offerings, sorry, I'd pass.

Just yesterday I saw an ad in a local newspaper offering a nice lower midrange Huawei phone for approx 65€. Samsung's offerings at the same price point are bottom of the barrel by comparison.

So: If you want to rule the high end, show that you mean business. Samsung failed to do so this year.
If you want to have good business at the low end, at least produce the same quality as your competitors. Samsung consistently fails to do so and cannot even remotely compete with the Chinese.

Add to that their bloated Android modifications and yes, this spells trouble.

It's too early to doom them, of course. Unlike with Nokia, I'm confident that their management is analyzing the situation thorougly and developing countermeasures.

[RottenApple]

@Tochi Nwa:

"The knives are out for Tomi. Blunt knives :o) "

No surprise there. Apple fanbois love to gloat when someone misanalyzes their competitors.
Apple should still be alarmed, though. In a market where the average high end phone costs €300 (and we'll get there), Apple won't be able to take double of that for a comparable offering. Only the hardest of the hard fanboys would pay that.

[Huber]

@Gonzo:

Don't count on Apple being invincible - falling prices also mean troubles for them.

I know that some people on this board think that Apple operates in a totally different market, but IMO this is wishful thinking only.

But we will see - soon!

[TDC123]

Well maybe they should do a Windows Phone :D

[youAPPi]

As a one quarter difference, "alarming" is putting that nicely. Batten down the hatches, Samsung. The smartphone marketshare battle is about to get nasty.

[Wayne Borean]

Am half asleep, will do a write up tomorrow. I think that a significant part of the problem is economic (which ties into the fast turnover).

Wayne

[zlutor]

What will come when all other but Chinese vendors died? Will they be still dirt cheap?

They have to spend (significantly more) money on innovation then that they can save today with 'getting inspiration from other vendors' nowadays...

[abdul muis]

@Tomi

Sorry to hijack this thread

http://www.phonearena.com/news/Nokia-might-jump-back-in-the-phone-business-with-Android-vengeance-job-postings-suggest_id58863

When Microsoft purchased Nokia, it actually got its Devices&Services division, which hosts the Windows Phone Lumia brand, but also the Asha and other low-cost solutions in Nokia's Mobile Phones section. It also acquired the right to use Nokia's brand, and licensed its mobile-related patents for 10 years, with an option for perpetuity extension, also making itself a preferred licensee of the HERE maps suite for a period of four years.

Nokia, however, retained the right to use its name on future products, the HERE maps suite ownership, and its strong patent portfolio. This seems to be enough for the Finns to try and resurrect their former glory, and, if a smorgasbord of new job postings at LinkedIn is any indication, Nokia intends to do just that. The company is looking to hire engineers, designers and camera specialists with a certain experience, for new devices that are coming down the pipeline.

A few of the listings have already been closed, which might mean that Nokia got their guys, but one in particular piqued our interest - a mobile photography engineer with experience writing camera drivers for Android. Thus, extrapolating from the fact that the hiring spree is done by the same team that issued the Nokia Z launcher in the Play Store, we might very well be looking at an Android-powered future for the Nokia that were. What do you think, do the Finns have a chance to stand on their own in the overcrowded land of the little green robot, considering that Nokia's best mobile technologies, like the PureView camera brand, and the ClearBlack display filter, are now exclusive to Microsoft?

[bruno1024]

That second picture pretty much sums up why Nokia collapsed. That level of connectivity today is still missing from all smartphones. Nokia N8, E7 and few more could be connected to tv out of the box without much hassle with dlna or other semi-standard technologies that aren't available on most tv sets. So, why is second picture important? Because nobody knew about it. Nokia had device that could easily be laptop-like gadget, but they forgot to tell people.
How can you sell something if you don't tell people what are your devices capable of? Just imagine if apple had device with such connectivity? Steve Jobs would glorify that device like nothing before. And Nokia? No marketing whatsoever. Nothing. Zero. For a phone like that? Phone that could stream 720p videos via hdmi cable, that had options to connect mouse and keyboard. Nokia didn't make no marketing effort to tell people for it. That's sad...

[bruno1024]

o sh**! my comment is related to this article http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2014/07/if-microsoft-could-just-do-one-thing-right-with-lumianokiawindows-on-smartphones/comments/page/1/#comments (July 31, 2014
If Microsoft Could Just Do ONE Thing Right with Lumia/Nokia/Windows on Smartphones)

my bad...

[n9]

Commoditization is what we are seeing in the smartphone area, some brands will retain a bit of value but overall margins will substantially drop.
Se the case of the OnePlus 1 smart phone that as unbeatable hardware for only 300€. and we will see more and more devices like this.

[Gonzo]

@ Hubert;

Never considered apple invincible, they are just not racing to the bottom. In fact this Q should be bad, only people living in caves don't know the iphone 6 will be out soon. And hey ! Apple will have bad and good quarters but focusing on it's loyal crowd of the 8-10% … it 600 million users. Amazon - 300 million credit cards, Apple has 600 million… imagine the possibilities and with IBM driving it into the enterprise… just a 3% growth in the segment is huge.

Remember … Imac without floppy, ipod too expensive, ipad is a big ipod, telephone without keyboard … blablabla apple is dead?

@ Tomi

Here are the latest news: but we knew that ! Samsung LOST 8% to Xiaomi in China, if it would have been apple the it would read " armageddon apple is dead, bloodbath no more as apple has no more blood to bleed", it seems that samy sam sam is loosing BIG in one of it's largest potential markets to …. PRICE WAR market share strategy !

Xiaomi, the Chinese smartphone maker with the diminutive name, became the leading smartphone vendor in China in the second quarter, with its shipments exceeding Samsung for the first time
Xiaomi led China’s second-quarter smartphone shipment rankings with 14% market share, following by Samsung, Lenovo and Yulong each with 12%. It’s quite a jump from the first quarter, when Xiaomi’s 10.7% market share trailed Samsung’s 18.3% and Lenovo’s 11%. And an even bigger leap from a year ago, when Xiaomi only held 5%.

[RottenApple]

@Gonzo:

What makes you think that Apple may sustain its high pricing once the market settles for $400 or less for a high end device? You have to face the fact that of those 600 million users there may be 10% who are devout supporters of Apple no matter what. The rest buys iPhones because it's economical to do so, e.g. the pricing in the US clearly favors expensive devices. But that only works because other high end phones cost just as much.

So once the race to the bottom starts, Apple will be caught up in it in one way or another because the one thing they cannot afford is to be priced out of the competition.

[AndThisWillBeToo]

@RottenApple
You must be first in this forum to say that it is economical to buy iPhone. U.S. market as an exception doesn't justify such a thought as majority of iPhones are sold outside U.S. (said by Apple CEO).

[RottenApple]

So? Where's the contradiction there? Right now Apple's price matches the competition's price for high end.
What I said will become relevant if the competition's high end prices start to fall - and that they will.

It also doesn't mean much that Apple sells more outside the US than in the US. The rest of the world is what? 20x more people, 30x more people? So even with a tiny percentage they'd sell more outside. But it remains a fact that their best markets are those where no real competition on hardware prices takes place.

[RottenApple]

@Baron95:

You are forgetting one thing that will eventually harm Samsung and that was already mentioned several times here:

Although they are market leader, they are not the most liked manufacturer. And I have the feeling that the attitude toward bloatware infestation on mobile and ill-advised custom UIs is turning around - and here Samsung consistently gets the worst ratings and so far they seem incapable of realizing this.

They lead the market because they rule the shelves in the electronics stores.