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June 04, 2014

Comments

baron99

"WP growing some" is a perfect example of what I said in my previous post. Is this the best the astroturfers can do? This is just too easy to identify the delusional "microsoft will succeed eventually" perspective we have been hearing for years and years and years .... too too funny! ...and we all know we can "BELIEVE" everything else the astroturfer says ...just hilarious

RottenApple

@Leebase:

"Msft's ecosystem is one that exists because Msft has the money to prop it up. Nokia did not have the money."


Here's where you draw the wrong conclusion.

Microsoft has to 'prop it up' because WP doesn't sell. That wouldn't have been the case for Nokia with MeeGo. Had they just converted half of their market share (and they would have) they'd be at 15% with which they couldn't be overlooked.

WP, on the other hand is crawling along with 2% and worse, they only manage to sell stuff because it's cheap, meaning that they don't reach the customer base an app developer needs.

As a matter of fact, developing apps that are supposed to make profit for WP is a complete waste of time. The company I work for has done one conversion for WinStore and WinPhone with Microsoft doing all the advertisement for the product. And half a year after release we still haven't gotten back half of our development costs from the meager sales. Ergo: It was the last product we ported to WP.


I don't understand why you are continuously regurgitate your nonsensical argument. All the other OSs that are limping along today entered the market when there was no more void to fill. Of course they didn't have a chance! But in 2010 and 2011 Nokia with Symbian still held one third of the market that had to be migrated to 'real' smartphones. These would have been Nokia's customers by default.

But now Symbian is gone, Blackberry is almost gone so who's to convert? What's left are disgruntled WP users, making up at most 2% of the entire market. You'd need a killer product to succeed in such an environment. But nobody's got one.


baron99

Some very insightful analysis (It is a great read and explains A LOT!!!! IMHO):

http://semiaccurate.com/2014/05/15/microsoft-now-irrelevant-computing-want-know/

winter

@Leebase
"Unless you are super excited to have a Tizen toaster, refrigerator, bluray player and watch -- you KNOW that Tizen on mobile phones is not the long promised "Meego"."

Make a guess how many things-with-network will be sold in the next two decades?

Every car, truck, or scooter, ship, container, and every home will have at least one. Every coin operated machine will have one too. Remember the original coffee maker cam? It will have its own internet access, just as the washer and drier.

As was mentioned above, Samsung makes all of these products. Having their own OS will be a matter of life or death.

You might not think this is interesting, but it is expected to be another T$ market.

AMRooke

I am interested to see the Q2 results for WP, as I would assume that most people held back from purchasing, waiting on the April release of WP8.1, which has been well received. I noticed several extremely negative posts about WP in this comments section, to which I ask have y'all ever tried it? I am far from being a fan of Microsoft as a corporation, but I am very pleased with the capabilities, security (much more secure than Android) and speed of my Nokia Lumia 920. Each OS upgrade has brought improvements, and WP8.1 included many features that Android and iOS users had complained were lacking from WP. After seeing how well my phone has compared with their current devices & OSs, many of my friends, family and employees have now switched over to WP.

Abdul Muis

@baron99

Thanks for the semiaccurate link (http://semiaccurate.com/2014/05/15/microsoft-now-irrelevant-computing-want-know/)

This is basically the reason why some of us (me) won't touch any of microsoft product at all, and I'm proudly say that I'm microsoft free since 2001.

Abdul Muis

It seems microsoft has changed strategy with Tomi's blog. Instead of sending balmer like ego maniac (baron95), they starting to change into Satya Nadela like personality (AMRooke), trying to persuade by "have you try it" line.

Well, AMRooke, I have try it when Nokia, my favourite phone company, introduce the lumia 800. I went to the nokia store. But I don't like it because it's a downgrade from my Nokia E7/N8 (I use 2-3 phone at any given time). It can't bluetooth, must buy the ring tone from microsoft even though I own the mp3, etc. Yes, with EACH upgrade bring new improvement, but in android, with EACH upgrade bring more improvement. FURTHERMORE, I want google ecosystem. I want Google Maps, Google Youtube, Google+, Google Drive and Google search engine. I use Google drive a lot with my co-worker and family, and I believe Google Drive is THE BEST collaborating suite for office work.

I don't want BING
I don't want Hotmail/live/outlook
I don't want MS Office

There is nothing microsoft can offer me or my group of friend/family or persuade me to leverage their OS. We don't want to support microsoft because we want to support innovation.

RottenApple

@baron99:

Interesting article, highly exaggerated, of course but there's certainly a grain of truth hidden beneath. And I think most of the problems and failures laid out there can be directly tied to the leadership of Steve Ballmer. We'll see how MSFT will develop without him. Their best days are over, though, that's for sure.

@Leebase:

That stuff may be uninteresting for you, but who cares about you? Certainly not Samsung. For them a viable strategy to pull these things off is essential.

@AMRooke:

I already got WP 8.1 on my work phone. It's the same old turd, it just stinks a tiny bit less as before but since Microsoft refuses to address the fundamental problems it all won't help. Remember? WP7.5 was supposed to cure all of WP 7.0's problems. Of course it didn't. Then, WP 8.0 was supposed to cure all of WP 7.x's problems. Guess what: It didn't! Now we go through the third iteration. Rinse and repeat.
And before I forget: The sales pattern in the WP world clearly indicate that the informed customer does not buy a Windows Phone. They buy either iOS or Android, based on personal preferences.

WonTheLottery

@Leebase
"Today's smartphone is an app ecosystem device."
There's no doubt a sizable percentage of 'smartphones' are simply used as kiddy consoles. As many of the games are created in SDKs like Marmalade, Unity, Cocos, GameMaker Studio, Havok, OpenFL, etc... they will be ported to Tizen with little effort. Do a search for the name of any one of those SDKs + Tizen and you'll see the groundwork is already done. I'm sure there will be quite some ongoing focus on making Tizen relevant to the kiddy console market because that also makes sense for IVIs and Smart TVs.


"There is already next to no money to be made via web apps..."
Your field of vision is so narrow! Business transacted on the web absolutely dwarfs tiddly, tiny app stores and the most common way of accessing the web is now mobile devices. How have you valued the business transacted through web apps?


"Mobile web "apps" aren't competitive even now with great premium smartphones with powerful browsers."
Even within your beloved app store there's a huge number of apps that are in reality a website embedded in a runtime. You believe they're native apps and hence imagine they perform better than a website in a browser would - it's the placebo effect.


"putting junk web phones in the hands of the poorest people is not going to create some viable market that developers are going to rush to fill."
The developers will be the user's peers. They may be poor compared to you but so is most of the world. The app store curator, annual developer's fee, etc... would suffocate the creativity of these people in a way the web wont.


baron99

I see more WP astroturfing statements. We are now back to the old WP "WAIT FOR" line of delusion. You know, "wait for Q2 results" or "wait for 8.1" and followed by some humorous sales statements about how "pleased" you will be with security and speed if you are a sucker enough to "try" a WP (I suspect we have a microsoft salesman posting). What a total joke from the microsoft astroturfers. Someone said it accurately: WP is a "turd". Amen to that! It has been clear for years and years and years that: NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE! LoL!

baron99

@RottenApple I don't think the article is "highly exaggerated" ...just the opposite. IMHO it is quite factual (maybe with an in your face presentation) but factual non the less. Microsoft is a company known for having trouble with ethical boundaries. They have been a "bad apple for years and years" Consider an old but classic example from their home town newspaper:

http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=20010823&slug=microlob23

winter

@baron99
"@RottenApple I don't think the article is "highly exaggerated" ...just the opposite. IMHO it is quite factual (maybe with an in your face presentation) but factual non the less."

I agree. The article is completely right. I have been at an international meeting two years before the collapse of the dot.com bubble. Innovation was seen as impossible due to the exact tactics described in the article.

And now, no one cares anymore what MS is doing. After Mozilla and Google broke the IE monopoly, things innovation on the internet became possible again. After the smartphone revolution, hardware innovation became possible again.

Think about the progress in software and hardware between 1995 and 2005 versus 2006 and 2014. JAVA, Javascript, and ARM did all exist in the 1990s.

baron99

@winter ...I totally agree! Statements of denial are coming from the astroturfers or a few that are simply living in naivety and won't believe that microsoft would target blogs etc. (either directly or indirectly through surrogates - http://techrights.org/wiki/index.php/Microsoft_PR_Agencies). Here is some recent documentation for those who chose to ignore reality:

http://techrights.org/2014/05/31/manufacturing-alt-reality/

Also, there is a long history of microsoft astroturfing behavior documented here:

http://techrights.org/wiki/index.php/AstroTurfing

IMHO, microsoft started to become "irrelevant" after losing Munich in 2003.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/industries/technology/2003-07-13-microsoft-linux-munich_x.htm

Unfortunately for the astroturfers, it has become SO PAINFULLY OBVIOUS today (Tomi's statistics are one example) that only the most delusional (or well paid) astroturfer would attempt argue otherwise :-)

RottenApple

@baron99 & Winter:

The article may describe Microsoft's tactics correctly, but it loses a lot of credibility by painting Microsoft's products as much worse as they actually are.

Windows isn't THAT bad...

@baron99:

Regarding credibility, your obsession with astroturfing isn't really helping you get your point across either. I don't actually think there's genuine regular astroturfers here - at least LeeBase and Baron 95, despite their misguided corporatist view of things, certainly are not, there's just nothing to be gained - but I know from professional experience that there's people out there in the computing business who actually still believe that Microsoft is the company to look out for and get defensive when this point of view gets challenged.

I'm quite certain that occasionally one will pop up (behold AMRooke...), but just fail to make an impression, because the audience is too smart.

AndThisWillBeToo

Once again I think people here are not reading Tomi's blog. What's the complain about Tizen and apps? Tomi has himself told us Tizen builds on the hugely admired and beloved MeeGo OS by Nokia and Intel, having evolved further, combining Samsung's bada competence and knowhow into the MeeGo project, with Intel's Moblin background.
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2013/02/lg-buys-palm-firefox-spreads-tizen-phones-in-july-and-other-observations-in-smartphone-bloodbath-yea.html

And being a descendant of MeeGo, Tizen is a cousin of Android, many Android apps can run natively on Tizen.
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2013/08/q2-smartphone-stats-this-blog-work-in-progress-full-numbers-shortly.html

So please drop the complaint about apps. MeeGo could run Android apps natively, so can Tizen. Right?

baron99

@RottenApple ...I respectfully disagree. Microsoft products ARE THAT BAD! ... even worse than being portrayed (Did you read: http://semiaccurate.com/2014/05/15/microsoft-now-irrelevant-computing-want-know/ - which makes a great case grounded in reality). I suspect that most who have been tortured by crappy Windows products for a few decades would agree.

You mention "there's just nothing to be gained" ..then my question is why the continuous delusional statements, which I won't fully repeat, but revolve around themes or TALKING POINTS, if you like, such as: "Wait till the next.... , Try it you will like it... , ...they will win in the end, they are gaining market share, ...my family just switched to WP, so did my neighbors and my dog and cat too :-) ...all proven false over the MULTIPLE YEARS this blog has been operating. They are TOTALLY LAUGHABLE in the current reality painted by Tomi's recent statistics and many others.

Why all the ridiculous statements? They waste our time. Are they there to serve the purpose of being laughed at? BTW, You named LeeBase and Baron 95 ...I guess you noticed something too. As you suggest AMRooke was just laughable non-sense (maybe Microsoft recently cut their astroturfing budget and they are not getting the subtlety they need). Do you seriously think people just come to Tomi's blog on their own time and inclination to say the same tired nonsense over and over, year in and year out about the obviously crappy microsoft products. I hope these people are at least being paid for being laughed at or they are a lot dumber than I thought.

Sihtoo

@AndThisWillBeToo

"And being a descendant of MeeGo, Tizen is a cousin of Android, many Android apps can run natively on Tizen."

How would that be possible? Tizen is missing the Dalvik VM and it's also missing the APIs Android NDK apps need in order to run.

"MeeGo could run Android apps natively, so can Tizen. Right?"

MeeGo most certainly was not able to run Android apps natively. If that was the case there wouldn't have been a need for a product like Alien Dalvik making it possible to run Android apps on MeeGo.

@RottenApple

"That wouldn't have been the case for Nokia with MeeGo. Had they just converted half of their market share (and they would have) they'd be at 15% with which they couldn't be overlooked."

How was Nokia supposed to convert half of the market share they had to MeeGo? I'm not saying it wouldn't have been possible. What I'm asking is how much time it would have taken to do that? Also, are you talking about market share as unit sales or market share as the share of the market? Usually making the customers to choose another product over the old one takes year and it's not done overnight. Not even with a migration path. Just look how long it took for PS2 to match PS1 in unit sales or how long it took for XBox 360 to beat the original XBox. Another example is iPhone replacing iPod. Once again it took years for iPhone to beat iPod even while iPhone was a superior device. There is also an example from Nokia. When S60 was launched it didn't replace the old phones overnight when it was launched in 2002. No, it actually took years and years and still it really wasn't there. There really was a migration path to S60 since it was also Java ME compatible and Nokia Suite supported moving the data.

WP was most certainly a failure, but what's unclear to me is how quickly MeeGo could have replaced Symbian. The examples I just gave suggest that it would have taken years. Are there any examples suggesting it would have happened faster than in 3-5 years? The S60 example is not supporting an overnight switch. Comparing switches to a newer Symbian versions wouldn't work since that's basically upgrading and not switching.

"But in 2010 and 2011 Nokia with Symbian still held one third of the market that had to be migrated to 'real' smartphones. These would have been Nokia's customers by default."

No company can say that the old customers belong to them by default. At least not overnight. Do you have examples of a company making a switch from the old product to the completely new product while maintaining the customers by default?

AndThisWillBeToo

@baron99
Let's put it this way: In March 2010 Tomi wrote about iPad:
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2010/03/so-what-to-expect-of-the-apple-ipad-a-fish-or-a-bird.html
Who is commenting there? Well it's our own Leebase, who tells that iPad is awesome and will outsell Tomi's forecasts. If you stick with him being Microsoft astroturfer, he was planted here 6 months before Elop started as a CEO and over a year before Tomi turned from Nokia fan to "fire the Nokia CEO" poster.

Planting an astroturfer here over a year in advance? With all due respect, Microsoft is not that smart. ;)

baron99

I agree that "microsoft is not that smart" ...that is easy to figure out, just look at their crappy products.

BTW, LeeBase was pointed out by Rotten Apple (not my call) ..or are you saying he is one of the dumb ones?

RottenApple

@baron99:

".I respectfully disagree. Microsoft products ARE THAT BAD! ... even worse than being portrayed (Did you read: http://semiaccurate.com/2014/05/15/microsoft-now-irrelevant-computing-want-know/ - which makes a great case grounded in reality). I suspect that most who have been tortured by crappy Windows products for a few decades would agree."


Being biased goes both ways. You clearly show a borderline irrational anti-Microsoft bias and I find that nothing better than blind followership.

You are accusing Microsoft of infesting the internet with their (bad) FUD but at the same time seem to believe that your own FUD is actually good. Actually, it's not. Concerning the links: They share the same language so I file them in the same category: Microsoft haters with an axe to grind. To be taken with a grain of salt.

@Sihtoo:

"WP was most certainly a failure, but what's unclear to me is how quickly MeeGo could have replaced Symbian. The examples I just gave suggest that it would have taken years. Are there any examples suggesting it would have happened faster than in 3-5 years? The S60 example is not supporting an overnight switch. Comparing switches to a newer Symbian versions wouldn't work since that's basically upgrading and not switching."

Doesn't really matter. Nokia had almost everything in place to make the transition over a more or less extended period of time. Of course it wouldn't have been instantaneous. But the important thing is: This was what Nokia's customers were waiting for! They were waiting for Symbian's successor, that'd continue Nokia's history - or at least Android. But Windows Phone was clearly not the right product.
The big problem with the transition to WP was that they completely lost trust of their supporters from one moment to another. The instant damage was so profound that nothing could repair it again.

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