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« One More Time - Lets do Nokia Q1 Smartphone Results, what can we estimate of the actual numbers from the deliberate fuzzy math | Main | Lets Do 2014 Numbers for the Mobile Industry: Now we are at 100% Mobile Subscription Penetration Rate Per Capita Globally »

April 30, 2014



"@WonTheLottery - I call BS on your "Google Play's revenue share of the freemium apps market went from 89% to 98%".

There is no way that Google ever made 89% of the freemium app revenue. Maybe 89% of GOOGLE'S app store came from freemium and now it's 98%..."

Yes, sorry about that, I misread it - in Apple's App Store freemium apps went from 72% of the market to 92%, in Google's Play Store they went from 89% to 98%, the two were actually stated separately. Personally I don't much care about Samsung vs Apple or Android vs iOS though, my real point was this model also works for web apps. The more capable and performant HTML5 becomes the less relevant OS and 'ecosystem' becomes.

"Look at what happened in Japan - iPhone now owns the market. Higher share than even in the US."

Japan is a bit of a special case though because most Japanese will not buy anything South Korean so Apple's main competitors in Japan will not be Samsung.


As our own Baron95 has been saying, it seems everybody plays this game dirty:

Abdul Muis


The money that microsoft owned is NOT NUMBERLESS. The share owner of microsoft could scream "ENOGH" at microsoft and say microsoft should just be a software company in the era of smartphone and don't waste their money. The money that would be better to be paid as dividend instead of going to bottomless pit.


"Which by default leaves a disproportionately large chunk of revenue in the hands of a tiny, tiny slice of customers."

This is something I already pointed out earlier. Quote:

Namely: from the few statistical data about smartphone usage I have come across, there is no such thing as an "average iPhone customer". Rather, it seems that there is a minority of very heavy users constituting the majority of outlays in the ecosystem (apps, content, bandwidth, etc), and a much larger proportion with fairly limited investment in the ecosystem.

The latter category spending is therefore not so much on apps, digital content or cloud services, but in the operator subscription package (bandwidth, SMS, etc) and the device as such. They do use apps, but these are standard ones (Facebook and co), or the few specific ones they have installed.

End Quote

Which unavoidably leads to the conclusion that an analysis based on differentiating between "smartphone", "feature phones" and other "superphones" is meaningless, as these terms are not defined unambiguously and what counts are such elements as price and effective usage.

Abdul Muis


Quote "I really don't know many people who actually play games on their phones. There's two reasons for that. Most people are not interested in games and even many gamers find playing games on smartphones a sub-par experience, mostly due to the limited means of control. Which by default leaves a disproportionately large chunk of revenue in the hands of a tiny, tiny slice of customers."

Maybe you don't know people who had kid in their teenage/early-twenty age. Smartphone give MIXED (not sub-par) experience. There were games that benefit being on a touch screen with soft-control, and vice verse. But the key point I must mention is I see less PORTABLE GAMING DEVICE in the last couple of years compared to before the smartphone evade this young audience. I believe Nintendo being in red is a direct result of gaming is on the rise on the smartphone, and also why apple iTunes bring excellent income.

As the rest of your post... I completely agree


I think Tomi told us that Nokia's carrier billing system etc.? He's been awfully quiet about it lately. Today I got this (in WP developer newsletter):

Last year we tripled carrier billing connections and have launched 8 new carrier billing connections in 2014 to reach 61 supported connections across 36 markets with more coming each month, including the world’s largest carrier, China Mobile.

(I assume CMCC goes through all the trouble just to boycott Microsoft even more.)


"Re Apple share in Japan. It has little to do with Samsung. Apple took share in Japan not so much from Samsung. It took it from Sony, NEC, Hitachi, etc - the traditional DoCoMo OEMs.

Its market share went from 35% to 65% in 3 months. Is that because the Japanese suddenly decided they didn't like the Koreans? Come on guys. Look at the facts, not convenient explanations, that are not true."

Because most Japanese will not buy South Korean products Apple do not have to compete with Samsung, that is why they took market share away from "Sony, NEC, Hitachi, etc "

Samsung actually withdrew from the Japanese consumer electronics market in 2007. They did continue with business to business sales but even when NTT DoCoMo ran promotions for Samsung Galaxys they didn't sell well.


"no one ever cares if Porsche's unit market share of the entire car market is tiny. [...] As far as ecosystem, they look at aftermarket support for modifications, tuning, wheels, brake kits, etc."

Porsche is truly a bad example.

1) Porsche (along with many luxury/high-end/premium brands) belongs to Volkswagen. It would be like Apple being a subsidiary of Samsung.

2) Many Porsche parts, and for some models entire platforms, are actually Volkswagen or Audi components -- and this has been the case for decades. A popular endeavour amongst Porsche owners is to figure out which VW/Audi component can be reused instead of buying the twice as expensive Porsche stuff.

3) The market share of Porsche in its home market, Germany, is 0.7%. This is at least one order of magnitude less than Apple in the mobile phone market. Even taking into account the differences in products, we are dealing with completely different market segments. If at all, you should have compared with BMW or Mercedes -- which have car market shares of about 7%-8%.

4) For many reasons -- absolute amounts of money to disburse (at least an order of magnitude higher), duration of ownership (average age of cars in the USA: 11.4 years!), type of maintenance to perform (mainly hardware, in addition to some software), legal framework (you need a driving licence) -- vehicles are extremely poor items to compare with mobile phones anyway, although this is frequently done.



Just my personal observation from the UK - when Nokia were producing Symbian phones Nokia adverts were as rare as rocking-horse squit (although there was a brief campaign when the N8 first launched), however after the Lumias were launched it seemed every other TV program was "sponsored by Nokia Lumia". A garish graphic of a Lumia device with a background of primary coloured squares complete with voice-over stating " - sponsored by Nokia Lumia" was at the beginning and end of numerous programs and at the beginning and end of each advert break within the program too.

What was your position within Nokia? When did you join and when did you leave?



You stated there was a marketing campaign for the N9, where exactly did that take place?

eduardo m


Regarding the comparative success of android and wp, I think it helps to look at this in terms of corporate goals.

Google's original goal was to prevent Microsoft or Apple from taking over the market and shutting users out of Google Search. Secondarily it was to make money from services. It has been quite successful at both these goals, except in China.

Microsoft's original goal was to make money selling its OS, and keep people within the larger Window's ecosystem. It has given up the first goal, and so far largely failed at the second. It is now trying to make money selling services and hardware, and again is so far failing.

eduardo m

Here is a further point. One reason it is useful to think of this in terms of the corporate goals of Google and Microsoft is it helps people realize that cell phones are no longer simply a world in themselves, but rather are deeply connected with the larger world of computing and the internet.


When can we expect the Q1 numbers? It seems people are switching from market share in Smartphones to All mobile phones.

Here are the results from ABI research:

Smartphones seem to make up 70% of the market in this report. Android + AOSP 57%, iOS 10%, and WP 3%.


Another view of the charts


I have recently read a lot about Nokia’s battle in the smart phone industry during the last 10 years. Based on different blogs and books the allegations in this blog seem harder and harder to believe.

I’m not going to reproduce the charts here as they are available publicly with comment on other blogs but I am nevertheless asking Tomi to comment on the following

- Nokia’s smartphone market share seemed to be well in decline before Stephen Elop wrote his (not saying that this was wise at all) “burning platform” memo or before committing to Windows. It had declined for 2 whole quarters already, the decline did not wait till Elop’s actions. Why does Tomi keep on putting everything to Elop’s fault? Poor decisions were made but the facts just do not support Tomi’s accusations.

- The more I read about Symbian the more clear it becomes that it was getting more and more outdated when compared to iOs and Android. Symbian simply couldn’t compete with these anymore. Why is it so difficult to admit that Nokia had fallen seriously behind in the software development?

- Meego – although a possible “next thing” – would have taken way too long to be a valid option. Building a viable ecosystem around it even longer (if ever). Wasn’t this too little too late?

John Alatalo

I just read about Nokia X2 (Android) that probably will be announced soon:

A more updated Android version than the older Nokia X and XL. Better camera 1 GB, RAM etc..

With that specs (similar to a Moto E) even people in the west world propaply would be interested in a such device.
So it seems after all Microsoft will not aband that platform.
Would be interesting to hear Tomis tought about this.


The thing is:
With the comment regarding Skype, Elop upset' all of them. Its more or less like a complot/conspiracy against them (hence, it should be watched [and rated] by the anti-monopoly office ;-)

Regarding the quality:
We tried several 625 (because of LTE), the hardware is not that bad - its OK. Apps: The most useless apps are also available for WinPhone nowadays, sure you are missing the tons of "like-to-be-a-one-hit-wonder-app"-developers (trying to roll big bucks with crap).
But personally i consider WP 8 as little bit buggy, but also i have to state that most of those "unfriendly" bugs are also in some other part.

Beeing an app developer, its not really "interesting" (say, attractive) to develop for WP 8. If you have some dev capacities left, just build a better responsive experience than trying to do a native app for WP (8). Or employ some students/intern to develop it for your company ;-)

The future is not that dark for MS/WP, but they did nearly every misstake one could do - at least, they have enough cash to support their endeavours...


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