One More Time - Lets do Nokia Q1 Smartphone Results, what can we estimate of the actual numbers from the deliberate fuzzy math

So yeah. Nokia reported today (as did LG). And Nokia gave even less data this time than three months ago in Q4 results, as it has now shifted the handset business to Microsoft last week.

We know really little 'for a fact'. We know the handset unit overall reported 30% decline in revenues vs same quarter one year ago and 27% decline in revenue vs Q4 of 2013. Nokia gave that number for us, it is 1,929 Billion Euros. 

Nokia then gave a few summary statements about how those numbers came to be. Nokia writes in the Q1 2014 results:

The year-on-year and sequential declines in discontinued operations net sales in the first quarter 2014 were primarily due to lower Mobile Phones net sales and, to a lesser extent, lower Smart Devices net sales. 

 On both a year-on-year and sequential basis, our Mobile Phones net sales were affected by competitive industry dynamics, including intense smartphone competition at increasingly lower price points and intense competition at the low end of our product portfolio. Our Smart Devices net sales were affected by competitive industry dynamics including the strong momentum of competing smartphone platforms. 

 On both a year-on-year and sequential basis, discontinued operations unit volumes declined in the first quarter 2014. The year-on-year decline in discontinued operations unit volumes was due to lower Mobile Phones unit volumes, partially offset by higher Smart Devices unit volumes. Sequentially, the decline in discontinued operations unit volumes was primarily due to lower Mobile Phones unit volumes and, to a lesser extent, lower Smart Devices unit volumes. 

 Discontinued operations Average Selling Price (ASP) declined on both a year-on-year and sequential basis in the first quarter 2014. The year-on-year and sequential declines in discontinued operations ASP were due to lower ASPs for both Smart Devices and Mobile Phones. 

Ok. We know some limits. Unit sales of smartphones were definitely more than 6.1 million and definitely less than 8.4 million. We know dumbphone sales were definitely below 55.8 million and total handset sales definitely below 75.0 million. We also know that part of the revenue decline was due to lesser unit sales but part was due to lower average sales price (ASP) across both dumbphones and smartphones.

Well, we do have the elements of a multidimensional optimization problem. And I did some modelling and came with a 'solution' that fits all the above. And it comes with very 'reasonable' assumptions too, I assigned the revenue decline evenly, half coming from ASP decline, half from unit sale decline. I made sure every statement in the above paragraphs is fulfilled. And I find these numbers for Nokia Q1 results (vs Q4 of 2013 for context)

Nokia Handset Unit Results Q1 2014 (estimate by TomiAhonen Consulting)

ITEM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q1 2014 . . . . . Q4 2013 . . . . Percent decline in one Quarter

HANDSETS COMBINED
Total Handset Unit Sales . . . . . 65.2 M . . . . . . 75.0 M . . . . . 13%
ASP of all Handsets . . . . . . . . . 29.60 Eur . . . . 35.11 Eur . . . 16%
Revenues of Handset Unit . . . . . 1,929 B . . . . . 2,633 . . . . . . . 27%

SMARTPHONES ALONE
Total Smartphone Unit Sales . . . 7.1 M . . . . . . . 8.2 M . . . . . . 13%
ASP of Smartphones . . . . . . . . 117.10 Eur . . . . 141.95 Eur . . . 18%
Revenues of Smartphone Unit . . 835 M . . . . . . . 1.1 B . . . . . . 27%

DUMBPHONES ALONE 
Total Dumbphones Unit Sales . . 58.1 M . . . . . . . 67.0 M . . . . . 13%
ASP of Dumbphones . . . . . . . . .14.40 Eur . . . . . 21.99 Eur . . . 35%
Revenues of Dumbphone Unit . . 1.09 B . . . . . . . . 1.49 B . . . . . 27%

The above analysis by TomiAhonen Consulting may be freely shared
Note the exact math does not 'add up' totally as this is result of 'best fit' multidimensional optimization of the known data points. It is accurate within a few percentage points on every item.

I can not be certain this is the 'only' solution to this problem but this is very 'realistic' in that all the variables are similar in size and consistent with the above (so one is not only 3% while the other parallel data point would be for example 57%). I of course welcome anyone else who might find an alternate but still reasonable solution. I think this is maybe as good an estimate of the division-specific performance we'll ever get from Nokia in its last quarter ever as a handset maker.

So with the above, lets assume those numbers are real. Obviously we know the losses worsened in the quarter compared to Q4 so yeah, Nokia is not a beloved handset brand currently. Unit sales are down, average prices are also down, while lossed grew. That is the unholy 'trifecta' of market failure. (it is also what Microsoft now takes over pretty much a disaster, thanks to Stephen Elop's utter demolition of the Nokia handset business over the past 3 years until Nokia removed him from the post of CEO)

What do the above numbers mean from the Smartphone Bloodbath point of view? Nokia smartphone sales are down to 7.1 million units in Q1. That is down 13% from Q4 and Nokia's prelimary market share is now 2.5%. Note that the Nokia Q1 results specifically mentioned the issue at the smartphone unit where sales were down being "affected by competitive industry dynamics including the strong momentum of competing smartphone platforms."

(BTW what bullshit is that? platformS. S!!! Not 'platform' but 'platforms' plural? Strong momentum of competing smartphone platforms? We just had Apple Q1 results and iPhone sales are DOWN 14% from Q4. So who else? Blackberry is down 21% from Q4. bada has ended production. Tizen only appeared on a pair of smart watches and nobody suggests there is any 'strong momentum' in smart watches at this point. The ONLY platform that shows strong momentum is obviously Android. I HATE it when people use such sloppy reporting)

But yes, the smartphone unit is severely struggling right now. A unit decline of 13% in smartphones when the overall handset division reported revenue decline of 27% from Q4, that is very consistent with the reported performance. Note that this is the big China sales quarter (Chinese gift-giving is not at Christmas, it is at Chinese New Year which is in the first calendar-quarter of the year). China obviously is the world's largest smartphone market by a huge margin and Nokia very recently owned 70% of that smartphone market. Now the latest Kantar data for Q1 fo 2014 finds total Windows Phone market share in China to be between 0.7% and 1% over the three months of the Quarter (OUCH !!!). Some Windows Phone 'success' in Argentina or Australia will not come close to covering the losses in China.

7.1 million smartphones leaves Nokia ranked 10th of the Top 10 largest smartphone makers in the world now that Xiaomi of China has leapfrogged Nokia too (Xiaomi sold 11.0 smartphones in Q1) but at least Nokia sold more than Blackberry or the Motorola unit of Google that Lenovo has now bought.

Oh and Nokia X running Android? We don't have any data points to even attempt to model that. We can be sure that some units of 'Nokia smartphones' were running Android but Nokia gives us no clue what that might be. I can't even speculate...

Now. What about Windows Phone? If we ignore the Android based Nokia X, and just for the sake of simplicity (And the absolute best-case scenario for Microsoft) we assume all Nokia smartphone sales were on Windows Phone, and if we also assume that the pattern holds that Nokia sells 90% of all Windows Phone smartphones (HTC and Samsung most of the rest) then Windows Phone has again also fallen in market share obviously and their total sales would be in the range of 7.9 million total smartphones and 2.8% market share now at the end of Q1. Yeah. It is technically the third 'biggest' but at 2.8% can you really call this a 'third ecosystem' or - remembering all Windows Phone smartphones are sold with huge subsidies and marketing support - and still at massive losses - isn't this a failed experiment by now?

(I did say that once Nokia is removed from the 'good cop/bad cop' routine of Microsoft and Nokia (Microsoft being the bad cop) now the sales will continue to decline... It seems I've been again right on the money...)

Ok. That is Nokia. I'll think on this a bit and write a separate blog about Microsof't's chances into the future with this Nokia asset (spoiler alert - there aren't any chances, but I'll explain why). Meanwhile, lets look quickly at LG

LG reported 12.3 million smartphones sold in Q1. That is a decline of 7% from Q4 (and well below the rumors of a hot LG quarter based on rumored strong China sales). LG's market share is now preliminarily about 4.3% and the Top 10 rank in the range of 5th to 7th for the Quarter.

Ok, thats the update for now. We'll do more as data comes in and yeah, I'll do a deep analysis of what chances Microsoft has in mobile (ie none).

Comments

[AndThisWillBeToo]

"The ONLY platform that shows strong momentum is obviously Android."

So we haven't gotten past the "Apple is doomed" story?
While you are at it, Samsung Sammy the Samster loses market share again. How come you haven't told us yet how Samsung has lost its momentum?

[AndThisWillBeToo]

Aaaand... Since when was Q2 of 2010 "very recently"? In 2011?

WAKE UP! IT'S YEAR 2014 AND A SHITLOAD OF STUFF HAS HAPPENED SINCE FEBRUARY 11TH OF 2011!!!

[Giacomo Di Giacomo]

@AndThisWillBeToo, are you aware of the stupid things you are saying? Tomi never said Apple is doomed. He keeps saying that Apple will decline, and that is happening. No more Steve Jobs, and it shows. Samsung? Tomi has been talking for years about the rise of Chinese manufacturers. Which means that someone has to lose market share to Chinese manufacturers. Who? The one who owned most of it, of course, that is Samsung. Who stays the first but with declining share, as did Nokia until Q1 2011. This is implied in what is said above.

[Ben]

Tomi, Thanks for the analysis as always. Obviously Windows Phone 8.1 is not taking off and not gaining any marketshare as many had suggested it would. You called it. Again. I'm curious what percentage of sales were lost due to Nokias imminent sale. I'm sure there were some hardcore fanboys left that somehow stomached Windows Phone because it was still kind of a Nokia, but gave up all hope once the sale was announced.

And just for shits and giggles, if you have the numbers handy:
How big is the Chinese smartphone market currently? If Nokia had held onto their marketshare in China alone and lost everything else, would they still had sold more phones than they just did? Obviously that wouldn't have happened with the plethora of cheap Andriod manufactures that have popped up, but the planned push of MeeGo and the N9 would have almost certainly fared quite a bit better than Windows Phone.

Also, what's the size of the smartphone market now vs say Q1 2011? It'd be interesting if you could model where Nokia might be if they had merely stayed course. Sure they were losing marketshare and were on a (relatively) slight downward trajectory. However, if you were able to extrapolate that out and factor in the growth of the industry I feel it would provide a decent glimpse at how badly Windows Phone did fail against merely staying the course.

[eduardo m]

Elop says Nokia will continue with Nokia-X

http://www.zdnet.com/microsofts-elop-defends-android-based-nokia-x-phones-7000028830/

Tomi, I would love to see your analysis of WP 8.1. I am guessing you think it won't sell, even though it has gotten some good reviews.

[GrantB]

Been watching the Nokia train wreck with Elop at the wheel for quite a long time. Wonder how long Elop will remain at the wheel though if Windows Phone 8.x still does not succeed under direct Microsoft control; you would have to think that sooner or later, MS would have to accept that they lost and go all in with services o ntop of an Android base.

Sad thing is that while I have an Android tablet and an iOS device (iPod Touch), I needed a cheap smartphone last year that could do calls/txt and a few basic smart phone services like GPS/Mapping/Navigation and create wifi hotspots. The Nokia 520 I bought does the job really well, and simple enough for my elderly father-in-law to buy one as well once he had a play with my phone. Obviously sold by Nokia at a big discount as the 520 was cheaper than most generic Android phones at the time of purchase. I am guessing that the 520 was the core reason for the growth in WP8 in markets last year, but it alone was not enough to save the platform.

If Nokia could have done something like the 520 with an Android OS, I would have been just as happy, but WP8 was fine for what I needed.

So in a year or so when I replace the phone, will I stick with Nokia for the next model up? Stick with WP8.x?
I would have preferred to stick with Nokia, but buying a Microsoft branded phone does not appeal.
WP OS is OK, but not better than iOS or Android, so I suspect I might end up with and Android phone as the only viable/affordable option. Sad as I like choice in the market, but I am a realist.

[AndThisWillBeToo]

@Giacomo
You didn't follow me: My point was that according to Tomi iOS is not a platform that shows momentum. I should've put it "Apple ecosystem is doomed" because that Toni has been saying that Apple's ecosystem will shrink and remain as a small player.
I say that while Android ecosystem gets new devices 5-fold compared to Apple's they are still both having momentum. Tomi just uses the wrong metric to evaluate the growth of an ecosystem.

Also:
When Nokia lost market share in 2010 Tomi wrote a long text about it telling how devastated he is by it:
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/01/undesirable-at-any-price-what-happened-to-nokia-who-invented-the-smartphone.html
But for Samsung we only hear "there is nothing to see here" speech. I would like to know why. Samsung did not even grow unit sales on Q4!

[John Fischer]

I am Bewildered, amazed.... It takes Tomi 11 seconds and a half to post about apple bad news, loss of market share, it takes Tomi 10 and a half seconds to post about Nokia and Elop and the end of the world for MS

But to report that Samsung lost market share, that is being eaten alive in china, that it mislead investors with fake numbers related to tablets, that it can not be trusted etc .... Not a single word.

I just don't get it, why is it so hard to report that Samsung peaked? that low profits will eventually hurt the company until a Nokia like syndrome hit the company mobile division

I guess that if apple would have done all that we would read here horror stories but here we have Alice uses a samsung in wonderland

[Gonzo]

Poor Nokia, poor Samsung.

Analysts must disclose if they own stock when issuing recommendations, Tiger Woods must use Rolex and Nike and support the brand ….

Maybe the issue here, and guys, no criticisms, is that Samsung sponsors Tomi, great for him as it means respect from a huge player, but bad for us as there is a complete lack of objectivity.

Bloodbath is associated with the iphone every time the subject comes up even after this:

Iphone strength came from this markets, where Apple is focusing on growth, logical, add all the people there but here we read bloodbath, disaster, doom

China up 28%,
Brazil up 61%,
Russia up 97%,
Turkey up 56%,
India up 55%.

Overall iPhone unit growth accelerated to 17% y/y vs. 7% in the Dec-13 quarter.

poor nokia, poor Samsung …

[RottenApple]

What about Samsung? Obviously it wasn't part of today's blog, so lets wait a day or two before crying foul. Maybe Tomi hasn't gotten the numbers yet?

In any case, yes, they did lose a bit but it was marginal, not suggesting any serious problem.

And as usual, we get the FUDing from some Apple plants here.

China aside these are all relatively small markets for the premium segment, they'll hardly make up for losses elsewhere. It's truly great to read they 'grew' 97% in Russia - but can you tell us how many phones that actually meant? That's the only relevant number.
Tell us what you like but it's an undisputable fact that Apple's growth is slowing down. But slowing growth will inevitably result in a standstill or decline. Just ignoring the trajectory of developments is not going to work. But that seems to be the preferred way of doing things in the Apple crowd.
No, right now they are not in problems, but the outlook is not as rosy as you paint it. Things won't continue endlessly in such a positive manner.
No, the changes haven't hit them yet, but the early indications are clearly there. (Emphasis on 'early'!)

But of course, we can praise their genius and pray to the God of Fruit as before and then act completely shocked, should things 'surprisingly' turn around.

Just a hint:
My employer, two years ago, made twice as much money with selling apps for Apple than for Android.
Last year, we made equal sales for both platforms.
Early numbers for this year show a trend hinting at 1.5 times as many sales on Android than on Apple.

Granted, we are mostly focussed on Europe but my guess is that similar developments are happening elsewhere as well with Android taking larger portions out of the crowd that's willing to spend some money.

Also, the most frequent complaint I get from Apple users about their platform is that they find they get ripped off, having to pay for stuff others might get for free. Yes, the old wisdom that Apple users are more willing to part from their money, which still drives the ecosystem, starts to turn around!

These are numbers I trust in, not some propaganda like 'Apple increased sales by 97% in Russia'.

[Abdul Muis]

@AndThisWill

Ecosystem.... Why apple with less user could manage to even android with more user. To know this more, we need to look deeper. Here is one of the article we could use as a base of this war (http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/04/21/apple-and-google-bring-fight-for-exclusive-games-to-mobile). So far, apple has manage to make game appear on iOS before android and make a headline that developer prefer iOS. You could also find some rebuttal on the net saying otherwise, that for developer who has the apps on both platform, android perform better.

But beyond the marketing/hype muscle created by apple, apple knew that PRO-gamer (professional gamer) always want to stay ahead, always want to play it before others. This is the gamer that willing to pay for the IN-APPS purchase. This where's the money goes. Google try to do their DO-NO-EVIL loosing the PRO-GAMER/PREMIUM-MARKET. And google just change their Google Play Store to up the ante with Apple. The result?? We will see this in a couple of month when several 'exclusive' game arrive at Google Play Store.

Other than the pro-gamer, apple user is junk. It just grandma/granddad who use it as a feature phone.

[Abdul Muis]

@Baron

You always say that carrier bows to apple, carrier will increase subsidies. Do you have any source? I heard rumor that while apple might look winning the NTT Docomo, China Mobile & Russian carrier, the truth is apple is getting paid less than they got from other carrier. I really hope you got the source to beat my rumors, otherwise, it's your rumor against my rumor.

[Abdul Muis]

@RottenApple

Quote"Also, the most frequent complaint I get from Apple users about their platform is that they find they get ripped off, having to pay for stuff others might get for free. Yes, the old wisdom that Apple users are more willing to part from their money, which still drives the ecosystem, starts to turn around!"

To summarize your post... Apple user is NOT PREMIUM like @leebase & @baron9suck think. Apple user just IDIOT that they don't know android is better for less.... iSheep!!!

[Maggan]

For me I disregard any analysis that is based on users being "stupid", "sheep", "idiots" and other slurs. It reveals an emotional bias that clouds the thinking and slants the conclusions towards the negative for the company whose customers are derided. This goes for Apple as well as Samsung, Google and Microsoft.

Basically, people using the "sheep" argument are predisposed to discount any positive data for the loathed company, and will focus on all negatives as well as passing judgement on how other people chose to spend their money and what utility they gain from that expenditure. Probably based on a small sample of anecdotal data collected through a heavy filter of confirmation bias.

When one company sells half a billion of something, painting these customers as "sheep" is taking the lazy way out.

/M

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Gang

Great comments thanks. I just posted the Microsoft+Nokia analysis blog (9,000 words and lots of graphs) so lets take the Microsoft and Nokia debate to those comments. I'll return later to some responses here. Keep the discussion going...

But let me address the paid bias. I list my public references often - that is companies who say they have used my consulting services - companies like Nokia, Google, NTT DoCoMo, China Mobile, Vodafone, Intel, LG, Blackberry, etc etc etc. I believe long-time readers of my blog know I have no qualms about writing critical blogs about companies that are public reference clients of mine (haha, starting with Nokia). But I have more clients who are not public and with whom I have confidentiality agreements and I won't reveal those names. I can say that Samsung is not a public reference customer of mine. I can separately say that I have no stock market investments in ANY of the companies who make smartphones - my occasional share ownership is in totally different types of companies, not at the very late stage when they are publically trades stock market companies when most of the big investment opportunity is long gone. So I have nothing to report about a paid bias about Samsung. I can say that if Samsung release a number on their Q1 results, I will immediately write a blog about that performance. If not, it will be LIKE EVERY QUARTER BEFORE - when we have the best numbers, ie those as reported by the big four analyst houses, for Samsung - ie Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analytics and Canalys. And at least Strategy Analytics has reported - Samsung sales are UP from Q4 - based on real growth in China - not the numbers seriously DOWN by Apple from Q4. I am not posting it as my official Samsung number because Strategy Analytics might have it wrong, we'll wait until we hear from Samsung officially, or else until the other of the big 4 have announced their counts. Sorry , you have to wait. I have behaved like this with EVERY Top 10 player EVERY QUARTER, it is nothing about Sammy. (But I like it that Samsung tends to be playing the game currently very smartly)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Abdul Muis]

@Baron

In other words, your data is not valid, based from hoax web site or some random thought blog. Thus, Tomi delete your post.

[Abdul Muis]

@Magan

I completely agree with you, and I'm sorry for such a strong post of mine. I'm reacting too strong to leebase and baron post, and lowering my self into 'iSheep' category.

After all, there is a reason why there were iSheep but not ibmSHEEP or samsungSHEEP or sonySHEEP.

[Abdul Muis]

@Leebase

I don't know if you really iSheep or MSFT astroturfer because iSheep can camouflage easily into MSFT astroturfer to archive their goal. i.e badmouthing google, android, samsung.

What I know from your post is you don't like google ecosystem, and you prefer iOS/microsoft ecosystem even it's not as good as google ecosystem. You believe microsoft will win the race even though current situation show that microsoft has been BRIBING LOTS of money to be able to be in the race.

When you see an evidence that apple is loosing, their user are switching to android because iOS/iphone is such a boring platform for the smart / well educated folks, you don't answer to that discussion, and you bring your own fairy tale.

There is no other description other than ixxxx or asxxxxxxfer that can fit more for you and baron.

[Abdul Muis]

@Leebase

I have a question for you. What do you think Tomi Ahonen as a phone user fall into? He got lots of $$, travel all the time, drink whiskey or champagne, but not petroleum, but he OWNED SONY XPERIA Z1. NOT IPHONE. Is he a PREMIUM USER?

You always said that apple beat samsung in selling PREMIUM phone. could you give the number breakdown on sales number of iphone 4, iphone 4s, iphone 5, iphone 5c, iphone 5s & compared to samsung galaxy S3, samsung galaxy s4, samsung galaxy s5, galaxy note 2, galaxy note 3.

If you went to some developing country, such as malaysia, philipine, thailand, vietnam, indonesia, india, you will see that the DISCOUNTINUED iphone 4 is all over the place for UNSUBSIDIZED PRICE OF US$200-270. That's the REFURBISHED iphone 4 sold in millions of unit all over that country. This is the one that help apple, not the premium 5s segment, not the 'cheap' 5c segment.

And do you know what even funnier, the user who bought iphone in this 3rd world country is DIFFERENT compared to the user in western world. This user DON'T want to buy the iphone in apple shop themed because the service IS NOT THE ONE THEY WANT. Yeah, that's right, you and baron think that the user experience in apple store is the best. But not for this user. This user want the store owner activate the iphone because they don't have credit card. The store owner will put his 'fake' iTunes account, download some free apps, then sell the phone. If that user want some paid apps, they come back to the store, the store owner put their password, download the apps, get paid.

So, why android sell more in this 3rd world country? CARRIER BILLING. That's the magic. Google don't need 800 millions credit card number. Google can let the user USE THEIR CARRIER balance to pay for the apps. THAT'S MORE POWERFULL than 800 millions credit card number. That's the reason the user in the country I mention above buy android (samsung, LG, sony, etc) device in the original store, not some small shop.

[Abdul Muis]

@Leebase

I also wondering if you could give a citation or source of 800 million credit card number. I think apple just celebrate selling the 500th million iphone. Why can they have more credit card number than iphone? it doesn't make sense.