Lets Talk Handset Features - My Hypothesis is that Screen Size Trumps Everything

So right off the bat. I am not a handset designer. Never was and haven't been anywhere near handset design either when employed by Nokia or before or thereafter even in my consulting career when I did numerous consulting gigs for various Nokia units as well as several other handset manufacturers. They didn't want me for my insigts in how to make handsets better they appreciated my knowhow in the mobile industry ecosystem and the role of carriers, mobile services and apps, consumers. But I wasn't hired to design the networks or write code or god forbid, try to design the next Razr or iPhone or Xperia haha...

That being said I am a grumpy old geezer with a ready opinion on just about anything in our industry. And today I feel like giving my thoughts on the form factor and feature set of handsets. Many have read on this blog how I love a given smartphone for its great camera (N93, N82, 808 Pureview, Xperia Z1 etc). Often I have called for good physical keyboards waxing lyrcal about the old Communicator line of Nokia or my happiness with the Blackberry Bold I once used etc. And I've talked about many other things from time to time. Now, recently, as we've seen the growth of the screen size - incidentially something my dear friend Christian Lindholm who once was Nokia's head designer - forecasted the handset industry would embark upon, when he visited us at MoMo Hong Kong I think around 2007 or so. MoMo is Mobile Monday for those not familiar with the biggest mobile enthusiast community accross I think its now over 200 cities already? Sorry I am digressing. Yeah, Christian was working for Fjord at the time when he visited us in Hong Kong and he forecasted that the handset industry was reversing its pursuit of the smallest handset ever that had already approached the size of the credit card in Japan, to now growing phones driven by the biggest screen anyone would dare to install on a phone. I remember him promising far larger handset screens than the then-monstrous size of the just-announced iPhone at 3.5 inches. I think Christian suggested phones might go to 5 inches even... He knows his stuff.

Now we have lots of speculation about Apple again growing its screen size of the next flagship iPhone to come closer to the enormous sizes that Samsung and other rivals offer. And others say no no no that is not necessary, because Apple is different and (nonsense follows).

Yeah. We know now that the 4 inch size is no longer a flagship just like an 8mp camera is about past its prime. The industry does move on and Apple will need to get on with the program and give us modern-size big screens (and modern bigger cameras too). But it has me thinking. Where should be the priorities and more imporantly: why.

So another caveat. Contrary to most posts I write this time I have no stats to support my hypothesis. Yes there are some statistics that handset screen sizes continue to grow but apart from that kind of numbers there are really no comparative preferences. This is what I mean. There are no studies asking consumers a comparative preference such as: would you take a 5 inch screen but 8 mp camera or 4.5 inch screen with 12 mp camera. Or would you take a 4 inch screen with 16 mp camera. Other things being equal so this would be your fave handset brand in both cases and the price would be identical of course. Same comparative study could be about battery life or memory or CPU or physical keyboard or whatnot. I'd love to see any such studies by anyone from any market so if any readers know of any, please share. Or for example would you take a 5 inch screen on an iPhone with regular resolution or a 4.5 inch screen with Retina Display. I know some would love the retina but I'm pretty sure the majority would rather take the larger screen if all other specs and price were the same.

SCREEN SIZE TRUMPS EVERYTHING

But back to my thinking. I think screen size trumps all - for most users. Yes there are some of us who are camera freaks - I would rate the optical zoom or superhigh resolution camera ahead of the biggest screen and essentially any other option including my beloved physical QWERTY keyboard haha, but I know I am not 'normal' (yeah, I do know it while I pretend to be a normal human being haha). I have in many cases quite extreme preferences. 

Yeah. Screen Size Trumps Everything. Lets take texting. So many of us are addicted to mobile messaging. And a physical QWERTY keyboard is better than a touch-screen keyboard. One of the big hassles of the touch screen is that you have to watch everything you write - that SLOWS YOU DOWN compared to a full-QWERTY keyboard and mobile is about speed. Plus with a virtual keyboard you do far more errors wihen you dont' ahve phsyical tactile feeling when you type. And the virtual keyboard steals from the large screen so you have much less visible area to see what you write, etc etc. So a real physical QWERTY keyboard is very compelling to perhaps 30% of the total mobile users who are more-or-less addicted to mobile messaging from SMS to Whatsapp. But...

But.. Screen Size Trumps Everything. Other things being equal, if the phone is a choice between Blackberry-style QWERTY with a half-phone sized screen like a 2.5 or 3 inch scrren, and a 5 inch massive screen that then forces us to use the virtual kegboard - or most people the big Screen Size Trumps Everything. We fall in love with that massive screen.

Its been that way for hafl a decade at least. The 2.5 inch screens of Nokia N-Series were huge compared to the rivals with 2 or 2.2 inch screens. Then the humongous iPhone with the 3.5 inch screen. Then we had the amazing letterbox 4 inch screen on the E90 Communicator, a FABULOUS screen to watch movies. Then we saw 4.5 inch screens, 5 inch screens, 6 inch screens... Side by side that larger screen is just better. The pictures look better the maps are more clear the videos seem better, the touch-screen buttons are larger with less typos, etc etc etc. 

Yes, in a perfect world we'd love to have both, like the E7 Nokia at the time had the 4 inch screen - bigger than the contemporary iPhone, as a well-functioning touch screen - plus the physical QWERTY wide keyboard as a slider-folder expansion. That was wonderful. But if we have to choose like the new Blackberries on the Z10 OS. They were both a suboptimal choice. Either get the 'real' Blackberry keyboard on the 'tiny' half-phone sized screen which was utterly outdated or take the 'only touch screen' Blackberry - which therefore was not a 'real' Blackberry without the physical keyboard. So what did the customers buy. The Galaxy Note! Obviously if you can't have a 'proper Blackberry keyboard' and a big screen, then what you want is the biggest screen going. The Z10 was a bad compromise and certainly not best touch screen device out there nor the biggest screen. Why. Because Screen Size Trumps Everything.

If Blackberry are really smart, they will release at least one phone that is a slider or folder style that will have both a large physical keyboard for the real Blackberry experience and a large, at least 5 inch touch screen. That could be a killer flagship. Because Screen Size Trumps Everything even the Crackberry addiction. But no Blackberry loyalist will buy any Berry that doesn't have a real physical keyboard. Its like buying a Ferrari with a diesel engine haha ( and with my luck thats already been launched by the Prancing Horse )

And what of my beloved cameras? Yeah I played with the Samsung Galaxy Zoom but then I could have the monster Sony Xperia Z1 screen and its removable Zoom optional lens. Not the most elegant solution on the camera side but now I get the massive screen. I love it... as Screen Size Trumps Everything.

For a while Apple's response to larger screens on Android was 'retina display'. And yes on a same-size screen the retina display is visibly sharper. Astonishingly sharp. But that is only if you compare two 3.5 inch screens side-by-side. A larger screen trumps the retina display. Even Apple acknowledged this and gave us the 4 inch screen on the iPhone. Why isn't the sharpest screen good enough even when on an iPhone? Because Screen Size Trumps Everything.

Look at your home TV. Over time and I mean decades rather than years we all have continuously upgraded our main TV set screen size. Why is that? Because Screen Size Trumps Everything. Now how come the market for tablets of 7 inche size is growing faster than the market for tablets of 10 inche size? I think that is because they are somewhat differing user cases. So we have actually two tablet market opportunities. A 'full size' tablet means you put it in a case and carry it in a bag. Its use is more 'professional' if you like and a rather clear laptop-replacement scenario. But the 7 inch tablet you can actually squeeze into a pocket or purse - not always and not very comfortably, but enough that their use cases have divergence. So the small tablet is more the casual use case. There may well emerge a 'screen size race' for 'full sized tablets that goes larger than the 10 inches. Most definitely on the side of smartphones we see the race up the size into phablets that approach that 7 inch small tablet size... But on tablets, I am not that much an expert on tablets haha. But in handsets definitely the screen sizes are still growing into the phablets sizes...

So that was my hypothesis for today. Waddaya think? Do you agree that Screen Size Trumps Everything?

Comments

[Mao Nixon]

Tomi,

I agree with you. Screen size is everything. A couple years back.... When replacing my aging N8, After trying Samsung Galaxy Nexus at phone store, I decide NOT to buy the iphone that my sister has been praising all months. More and more relative (and friend too) who try Android and iphone, mostly choose Android phone just because iphone screen were too damned small.

http://www.phonearena.com/news/New-Google-Nexus-P3-concept-includes-a-QWERTY-keyboard-gamepad-and-extended-battery_id52684

I don't really understand why LeeBase and Baron keep insisting that iphone has it all.

[Andy Bovingdon]

Kinda... I personally tend to agree, but purpose has to play a part. For example, if Screen Size Trumps Everything, then a 28 inch, super big, super hi-rez tablet should win the mass market. But obviously it won't because it doesn't fit in most people's pockets.

Same applied when my wife wanted a new phone to replace her Sony Xperia S. She wanted the high quality, hi-rez flagship that would get updates and last a while, but it also had to fit her bag and her dainty hands. So the Samsung Galaxy Utra-Mega-Whopper was out, as were most of the Android phones, which were either too big, or not a flagship and therefore not guaranteed to get any updates. In the end she opted for an iPhone 5s - because it was compact...

[Bill]

The only research I could find is this. The source is Kantar, so not sure how we all feel about their accuracy, but nonetheless:
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jan/24/phablets-to-make-big-splash-in-asia-but-research-finds-appeal-in-europe-limited

They reckon smartphones will tend to a limit, which is a reasonable assertion, as otherwise they will become tablets.

Just chasing screen size seems limiting, as long as screens are confined to the phone (otherwise they won't fit into a pocket or small bag). I think we're waiting for a form of Augmented Reality that an everyday consumer can use and, more importantly, actually wants to use.

[Vesku]

For me, pocketability and durability trumps screen size. I just couldn't live with a phablet. I'd like my iPhone more if it was even thinner and had a smaller bezel. I learnt to carry the phone in the front jeans pocket with Nokia's Zippo models and have stuck with that habit ever since. The next increment in screen size will probably be something wearable for me, but the phone is just a hub connecting devices together.

[Dan]

Screen size is related to where do you put the device when you are out. For women that mostly have a large bag, screen size is not an issue unless they want to go in a club with a small bag or without a bag. For men, the screen size is related to their pockets size. The Nokia Communicator was fitting in my jacket pockets, but never in my jeans pockets (and was so heavy that I had several pockets broken due to the weight, nowadays this is not a problem anymore)

Screen size trumps everything unless is too big to be carried as your usual phone. That's the reason I don't consider at all 5 inch or bigger screen phone.

[Zangolie]

We are in a time when modern mobile phone hardware is a commodity. When something becomes a commodity, what is left is Brand.

Branding Trumps everything. It's what Apple and Samsung get so right. It's what HTC is struggling with and BlackBerry is so clueless about, that they destroyed it.

[E.Casais]

Screen size trumps everything only in so far as services and content are developed in such a way that they only work well on large displays. This is actually the case for the majority of them: e-books, movies, games, web sites.

Apple has resisted well the trend towards huge displays because its business model is built upon apps which are optimized for the kind of screen size of the iPhone, while relocating the aforementioned screen-heavy services onto tablets with a larger display, i.e. the iPad.

Handsets with 6" screens are not a "natural" evolution towards something greater and better, but the symptom of a failure to design services for mobile devices.

My guess is that a similar situation will take hold with smart watches: Apple will provide small, wristwatch-sized devices with optimized functions, while (possibly with exceptions) the Android crowd will clamor for devices with the span of a vambrace, because that is the only way to have a display large enough to operate standard Internet services.

[foo]

> Now how come the market for tablets of 7 inche size is growing faster than the market for tablets of 10 inche size?
> I think that is because they are somewhat differing user cases. So we have actually two tablet market opportunities.

The 10" tablets offer the best experience -- but are more expensive. The 7" tablets offer price advantage.

These are the two major competitive advantage points.

And Android wins because it spans from the cheapest to the most sophisticated.

[Satya Nutela]

Apple know that if they release the iphonepad (iphone + ipad), the sales sum of iphone + ipad will be lower than the iphonepad tablet, because the customer don't need to have big screen ipad mini anymore, and just use the iphonepad as 2-in-1 device.

[RottenApple]

@Leebase:

"Price is Androids one and only killer feature. "

That's so wrong it's just laughable.

Android's biggest advantage over Apple is not price but independence from an egotistic dictator who can control everything you want to do with your device and if he allows something it's his way only.

Believe it or not, there's many people out there who would never buy an Apple product, regardless of price and services. Count me in on that group.

[JMM]

"We know now that the 4 inch size is no longer a flagship"

mmm, I´m not sure, besides the iPhone that still is a true flagship now companies like Sony (Z1 Compact) and LG (TBA next week) are moving flagships below 4.5".

I suspect that the bigger screen trend on Android started as a need to put bigger batteries on the phones since Android power management was horrible, things have changed and now power management has improved a lot with Android latest versions, as an example several reviews have stated that the Z1 Compact battery life is better than the original Z1 (that is not bad at all).

I think that bigger screens trend will continue, but also we´ll see other companies like HTC/Samsung move flagships to reduced sizes for those who prefer smaller handsets but with real power. (s4 mini and HTC One mini aren't flagships, I agree). Motorola is already doing it with the X.

May be the rumors are right, next iphone could split in two different models (above and below 4.5"), it will be very rarely for Apple but I think it´s the trend.

[Wayne Borean]

I agree, with the caveat that there has to be an upper end size limit. What that limit is I don't know.

I do know that using an 10 inch iPad as a phone would be clumsy beyond belief.

I also agree with Bill. Screen size will cease to matter if the companies develop augmented reality vision systems, at which point we'll once again see a race to the smallest body size.

Wayne

[Janne]

@LeeBase

I don't think it's about who has the largest screen size or who provides the device but that the size itself is the deciding factor. I like my iPhone because I like to use my mobile device with one hand. My GF has Samsung SIII because she likes to make a lot of notes.

It boils down to a personal choice, which can't be imposed on somebody else. There doesn't exist any golden standard, and the form factor continuum has multiple sweet spots.

[Carlton Hobbs]

You might say screen size trumps everything...up to the size of a person's comfort in pockets. So I do not see petite, fit young women with stylishly tight-fit jeans carrying a phablet. The few who do also carry a purse to hold it.

[chithanh]

@LeeBase
You can replace any Google Service. Just ask Amazon.

@Carlton Hobbs:
For the slim fit jeans, LG and Samsung sell the curved and flexible phones.

[Huber]

@Leebase:

>> We're speaking of market moving advantages. The "Google is open" facade has been lifted a long time ago. It's not open. Ask Skyhook. You can't replace any Google service.

Sorry, but this is utter bullshit:

>>>ANDROID OEMs>> I, AS A CUSTOMER <<< can do whatever I want.

I have a Galaxy S4 without any Samsung software on it. I do use the Google services, but am not forced to:

I can decide about avery single feature on my smartphone, I can install/ deinstall any app, may it be a system app or not. I have full access to the Linux file system including the system-partition. I can use any app as default app. I am not forced to use the Play Store, I can install whatever I want from any source I want.

This is what people mean when they say that Android is open. It is not about the OEMs which depend on the Google services, it is about the end users! Of course you are free to buy a device with a locked bootloader, too, but this is your decision as an end user.

Here is the ROM I use. It is completely open source, you can do with it whatever you want, there are no restriczions whatsoever: http://forum.xda-developers.com/showthread.php?t=2397511

[RottenApple]

@Leebase:

"We're speaking of market moving advantages. The "Google is open" facade has been lifted a long time ago."

Blah, blah!

What I don't like about Apple is that they are the sole entity to decide what software an iPhone user can use, their devices require special 'Apple approved' (and overpriced) peripherals, can only used with Apple software on the PC and so on and so on. In other words: Apple dictates every single way how the device can be used. Ok, that may be ok for most simpleminded folks - but not for me.

I don't use iTunes, I don't want to use iTunes or any comparable software, I just want to link my phone with my main computer and use it just like another device in a network. Sorry, not possible with Apple, no problem with Android.

Or: I just want to use that crappy piece of unapproved software on my phone, despite all the warnings (hey, I'm an expert - I know what I'm doing!) Bad luck if you use Apple. On my Android phones there's nobody to block me, once I enable sideloading apps.

Believe it or not: That's stuff that is important for some users.

And please stop spreading that nonsensical FUD that has absolutely no meaning for the device's end users.
Windows is also not an 'open' OS in the manufacturer's sense but it certainly makes zero restrictions about how I, as an end user, can use it or what software to install or what services to use. Not such a case with iOS.

[Matches]

Android has such a range of devices out the that I feel the are two potential advantages over the iPhone. The low and mid tier has price point, the upper tier has screen size. The fact that Apple is the most attractive ecosystem and performs so well despite only offering the relatively small screen sizes that it does, means this hypothesis is dead in the water.

The test of it may come when Apple does put out the larger phone. Tomi's examples above don't that user experience or ecosystem into account. Sure, between a better camera or a bigger screen, it looks like the bigger screen carries the day. But bigger screen does not trump "It's an iphone." Many do choose the bigger screen, as I have. But to say it trumps what the iPhone offers is clearly not true. Apple hasn't had a competitive product she. It comes to screen size in years, but is doing just fine. Now, we will probably see soon that all things being truly equal, the bigger screen iPhone WILL indeed trump the smaller screen iphone. But screen size doesn't trump user experience, or ecosystem.

[Satya Nutela]

@Zangolie

"We are in a time when modern mobile phone hardware is a commodity. When something becomes a commodity, what is left is Brand.

Branding Trumps everything. It's what Apple and Samsung get so right."

Apple got it right with the trending (thus branding), but apple keep abusing/milking it without nourishing it. This is the very reason apple hit the saturation point of their brand/trend.

@E.Casais

"Handsets with 6" screens are not a "natural" evolution towards something greater and better, but the symptom of a failure to design services for mobile devices."

If you went to Asia, such as korea, hongkong, Singapore, Taiwan, China, Macao. EVERYWHERE you look, a teenage girl using a 5"+ screen. 5"-6" phone.

Girl usually have more SMALL hand than man, and Asian hand is also smaller than Caucasian. But they use BIG phone.

@RottenApple

"Android's biggest advantage over Apple is not price but independence from an egotistic dictator who can control everything you want to do with your device and if he allows something it's his way only."

Thumbs up!!!

@JMM

"mmm, I´m not sure, besides the iPhone that still is a true flagship now companies like Sony (Z1 Compact) and LG (TBA next week) are moving flagships below 4.5"."

That's because they want to lure the apple market. Lots of japanese still under the spell that think apple 4" one hand operation is a must, thus Sony try to lure this market with 4" flagship.

"I think that bigger screens trend will continue, but also we´ll see other companies like HTC/Samsung move flagships to reduced sizes for those who prefer smaller handsets but with real power. (s4 mini and HTC One mini aren't flagships, I agree). Motorola is already doing it with the X."

HTC is uncompetitive because their phone is smaller compared to competitor. Moto X is also not selling well.

@Carlton Hobbs

"You might say screen size trumps everything...up to the size of a person's comfort in pockets. So I do not see petite, fit young women with stylishly tight-fit jeans carrying a phablet. The few who do also carry a purse to hold it."

Irronically, MOST of PETITE asian girl prefer phablet. If you went to Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, China, Singapore.... you'll see phablet dominate everywhere!!! In the subway, train, bus, restaurant... everywhere...

@LeeBase

"Finally you end with "you're an iSheep""

You really ARE an iSHEEP!!!!

@Huber

AGREE

@RottenApple

"I don't use iTunes, I don't want to use iTunes or any comparable software, I just want to link my phone with my main computer and use it just like another device in a network. Sorry, not possible with Apple, no problem with Android.

Or: I just want to use that crappy piece of unapproved software on my phone, despite all the warnings (hey, I'm an expert - I know what I'm doing!) Bad luck if you use Apple. On my Android phones there's nobody to block me, once I enable sideloading apps.

Believe it or not: That's stuff that is important for some users."

AGREE!!
For some user, freedom is more than fancy coating.
For teenager (student), college student, those who live in bleeding edge (android), and not in wall garden is the one that were creative and don't want any boundaries. iphone user is just a status symbol for this market that were not creative and affraid of bleeding edge.

@Matches

"The fact that Apple is the most attractive ecosystem and performs so well despite only offering the relatively small screen sizes that it does, means this hypothesis is dead in the water."

This is bullshit. Apple ecosystem and android ecosystem is on the same level. Same apps, same game, etc. I even think that ANDROID ecosystem is BETTER. android ecosystem has MORE user, more REACH. and at the end of 2014, android might have around 1.8 Million user based, compared to 300 million of iphone user based.

@LeeBase

"Google is not open source in any real sense of the word. It does not have a community of developers. You CANNOT fork Android without losing ALL of Google's services. You can't just swap out the maps (reference Skyhook). You CANNOT have one product line that is Google Android and another product line that is a forked version."

You're point??? You can't also REPLACE iphone maps, You can't replace iphone web browser. What you're asking is "Hey Google, Thanks for your good work, now, STRIP!!! I want to humiliate you". I think it's fair that google make the rule in OHA that if they want to be in OHA, they can't have forked version. This is for the integrity of the project, and for making sure that android is not fragmented (in the real way, not in the apple-terminology). If some company want to fork android but using some google service, and don't want some, it's the same as ripping off google.

[R]

Well, for my own use, screen size is just one factor. I actually want a small screen on my phone, so it will fit in my pocket and not pull my pants down, but I've been gradually pushed into bigger sizes because I also want a phone that works for my purposes.

In my latest move, I'm going from a 3.7" phone to a 4.7" phone. It's not because I want the larger screen, though it's very pretty. It's because the 3.7" phone has defective software that makes it drop calls often, and its hardware is unable to upgrade from Gingerbread or install more than a few apps, and my carrier is requiring me to upgrade to this new phone to fix these problems.

In general, the bigger phones have sharper screens and faster processors and more storage and better battery life. The iPhone has been insulated somewhat, because they're carefully designing their systems to have decent resolution, battery life, performance without becoming huge.

But, usually, the people I see with huge phones do buy them because they want that huge and sharp screen. Maybe for some people it's a proxy for quality, like the tail feathers of a peacock. Or maybe they desire the bigger size independently, because you can fit more data or make the text and icons bigger on it.

There needs to be more market research to figure this out, and Samsung seems to be in the right position to do this.