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« Normandy? Mview? Nokia X? Whats the Thinking Behind Android Based Smartphone by Nokia... Now? | Main | Lets Talk Handset Features - My Hypothesis is that Screen Size Trumps Everything »

February 13, 2014



So Apple is selling only most expensive phone(s) in the market and last year sold HALF the amount of phones compared to #1, which reportedly had biggest sales in low-end.
Must be a pain to lose the market like that.

Satya Nutela

I believe BB10 user only around 3 million.


there is a mistake in the header of the first table:
Rank . Brand . . . . 2013 units . . Share . . 2012 units . . Share . . 2012 units . . Share

The last year (to the right) should be 2011?


Samsung QoQ unit sales were FLAT!
Tomi report Q3 was 84.1M - same as now in Q4.
Samsung Samster the Sammie was not able to grow unit sales to Christmas quarter - AT ALL! And meanwhile the market grew 13% in one quarter!

How is that even possible? Due to iPhone? Impossible as only iSheeps buy iPhones and they do not buy Galaxy series. The best selling quarter in the year and Samsung can't improve sales. Weird. Totally weird.


Nokia closed Symbian production lines at end of June 2013. Could you already accept there are no Symbian phones in Q4 numbers?


Apple increased sales by 18M units 2012->2013, 135.8M -> 153.4M. Pay attention.


Well to be fair to @leebase, he took the column (mis)labeled 2012 units and subtracted it from 2013 to get 60M.


That's why I told him to pay attention. ;)
I assume Tomi fixes some labels and adds Q4 OS shares when he gets back.



You are quite skilled at spinning the numbers in a way that suits your view of things.

Try to do some projections into the future with these numbers - that's where the potential dangers for Apple lie.

Alex Kerr

Many thanks Tomi.

I would love to know total installed base of featurephones, and total featurephone sales for 2013 please.

Much appreciated!

John Fischer

Rank . . Manufacturer . Units . . . Market Share . Was Q3 2013 . . OS systems supported

1 (1) . . Samsung . . . . 84.1 M . . 29.3% . . . . . . . ( 33.1% ) . . . . . . Android

Wow, Samsung decline documented in this blog, from Q3 to Q4 almost 4 % decline! If it would be apple it would be declared the biggest looser ever.

But apple grew 4,5% ... Umm? Why didn't people kept buying Samsung? Ahh , yes, seasonal... Always that time in the year that people prefers iphones and coincidentally the high end samsung phone didn't hit the sales targets...

What could be the excuse, big bonuses for their salesman.? Like the absurd excuse for the 18 % in yearly net... They most likely hid there part of the decline as they don't really show reliable numbers.. Who knows..

My Question for Tomi would be...

How much of Android market share really matters, kit kat? Ice cream and gingerbread account for almost 40% so, why not measure the relevant one to the other OS? Eliminated irrelevant data... Let's see the numbers.

Sander van der Wal

What on Earth is Tizen doing in the tables? Its market share is so small as not to show up in the list op relevant OS'es, but it is adding to Samsungs, Huawei's and Lenevo's profits? Bada and in particular Symbian have a right to be listed as formerly relevant OS's, but Tizen is vapourware.


Nice numbers. Let's compare the 4Q numbers (M):
4Q Android iPhone WP All
13 220.2 51.0 8.6 287.3
12 147.3 47.8 5.8 217.2
11 76.0 37.0 2.0 155.0
10 30.1 16.2 1.7 99.4

The year over year growth of Android 12-13 is 73M (49%), that of iPhone 3.2M (7%), that of WP 2.8M (48%). WP can barely "keep up with" the growth of the market (in percentages). However, the whole growth achieved by WP from 4Q12 to 4Q13 is a single day of Android sales.

But the growth in units of iPhone over that time is barely bigger than that of WP.

This really looks like Apple is hitting market saturation.


Tomi, why not use the "pre" tag for the tables? Thats why it exists. They're pretty hard to read even with trying to align everything up with those dots.



"The average profit to make and sell a PC is $23. Apple makes on average about $260 per Mac."

Of course this is comparing apples to oranges because the Mac profit contains the part made by the OS - for regular Windows PCs this piece of the cake goes to Microsoft.

I'd like to see the profit margins of companies that actually build PCs according to their customers' demands. All this ultra-cheap machines are ultimately just crap - barely usable to surf the internet, but that's it. That part of the market will go away soon anyway because that's what gets replaced by tablets and chromebooks.

Maybe once that happens the profitability returns - if the market adjusts to customers who need quality hardware that actually can do some stuff.



What do you think about this news?

The latest Brandirectory survey on global brands is out and it’s got some grim news for Microsoft: The value of the handset brand it bought has continued plunging. Back in 2008, Nokia was one of the top 10 brands in the world. In 2014, Nokia no longer even makes the top 500 list of leading brands.



"Having a line of premium computers and selling plenty of them are not the same thing."

Correct. But as I said, I'm fairly sure that the largest part of this segment gets served by specialty builders, i.e. since these outfits operate in smaller quantities, their product never shows up on any chart. Of course this will give the faulty impression that aside from Apple nobody is making money here.

But this is the market segment that actually competes with Apple.

Mark W

Thanks for the numbers Tomi.

Very interesting reading regarding Tomi's forecasting accuracy in:

Despite huge spreads in his forecasts quite a few are misses. Not to dismiss Tomi's skills, just that calling himself the most accurate forecaster and then missing most of them...



Forget that site. The guy behind it is clealy an anti-Tomi crusader. And it completely misses the mark of 'correctness'. It's a forecast, not clairvoyance.

Of course, seen like that, quite a bit of predictions are misses. That's inevitable if you consider things black and white. You got to see stuff in context, i.e. how large is the margin of error compared to other forecasters.

As an example, Tomi was off by ca. 100% when forecasting the performance of Nokia after burning the platforms. In reality Nokia fared far worse than predicted. Sounds like a bad forecast, eh? By itself certainly - you must have a look at competing forecasts, though, and most of those were off by more than twice as much, if not a lot more.


I thought that was about year 2013? Didn't Strategy Analytics already say 4% for Windows Phone at the time Tomi insisted it can never exceed 2%?

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