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« There Are Some Early AR Numbers - All Looking VERY Good for Augmented Reality | Main | Apple Results Q4 - Wow this was far worse than I thought... »

January 23, 2014




"As for the US market, we've got a lot more competition than you think. T-Mobile and Sprint have gotten very aggressive lately. "

The operative term being 'lately'! Let's wait a bit to see if they can bring some true competition to the market. That'll only happen if AT&T and Verizon have to react.


"I'll guarantee you that Apple share will grow in Germany as soon as the large screen devices arrive. "

That's assuming that there's many users which chose Android over Apple just for screen size and switch back immediately. Just to inform you, I don't know many of these. The Android users I know are quite happy with what they got. I rather think that with growing performance in mid range devices that's where many users will go to. People are slowly realizing that today's phones are fast enough unless you are a gamer so why pay double premium to get something even faster?


Sorry - Forgot to mention that Apple's gross margins are back up to 37.9% and that Apple got another cave - second largest Operator in Russia is now - distributing and subsidizing the iPhone.

DoCoMo, China Mobile, Reliance, Megafon

See the trend?

Operators boycott Windows Phone, but it is the solid #3 and gaining share.

Operators hate to subsidize iPhone, but keep on signing up.


Oh, and what strategy did Apple use in Russia. Something totally new.

It signed up a smaller operator Vimpelcom in October, there fore putting pressure on the big guys. Now Megafon is on board (starting soon), and it will put pressure on #1.

How did Apple come up with this ingenious approach?

Oh wait. Never mind. The've done the same thing in the US, Japan, China, etc. Silly me. I was thinking about Microsoft's strategy to avoid the boycott.


Oppenheimer says that Apple's $57.6 billion in sales is a global record for any technology company.

So much for peak Apple.


Amazing. iPhone ASP rose from $477 in calendar Q4 2013 to $636. That is massive and indicates that the iPhone 5S is the volume play as opposed to 4, 4S and 5C which are still on sale.

$159 ASP increase is larger than Nokia's ASP - LOL

So that is the trick - record volumes of iPhones (first time more than 50M sold in a quarter) while simultaneously increase ASP.

If only Apple had follow the advice of people here to focus on low cost devices.... LOL - Chuckles.

Now on to distribution expansion and larger screens. The 2014 Apple 1-2 punch.

Earendil Star

Fantastic Apple results in Q1!

That's why shares... tumbled 7% after hours?

Ooops, I forgot. The reality distortion field is going on. Especially pro WP. Against Android. Again. Business as usual by the astros on Tomi's blog.

For the others, let's wait for Tomi's take on things when all data are out.


Guess what was Apple's fastest growing region up 29% you? China. And that is before the China Mobile deal!!

P.S. I think I may have written down the wrong figure for previous quarter ASP - it may be $577, not $477. I'll double check later. Still a huge rise in ASP.

Now for those claiming Apple does well only in the US, or US and Japan, here are the numbers.

Americas (all of the Americas, US, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, etc) was 35% of revenues. Japan was 8%. China was 15%, Europe was 23%.

So US is less than 1/3 of Apple's revenue and going down all the time.

So read again more than 2/3 of Apple's revenue is from outside the US. So adjust your talking points Tomi disciples.


Oh and iTunes/iCloud/App revenues are now almost FIVE TIMES larger than iPod revenues.

$5B/quarter in NET iTunes revenue (i.e. counting just the 30% that Apple keeps, not the full amount billed). The actually amount billed is approaching $20B/quarter.

THAT is the value of catering to affluent connected customers. $20B/quarter in iTunes spend!!!!!!!

That is bigger than the revenues for the entire movie and music business in the US combined.

Get it?

Start with iPod HW, switch to iTunes content to the point that content is now 5 times larger than the HW that started it.

Show me how Samsung can do the same? They can't.


More nuggets from the call....China Mobile projecting to expand from 16 cities (where iPhone is available now) to 300 cities by year end.

iPhone sales grew 76% in Latin America and 115% in Central and Eastern Europe - What did I say? Apple is methodical. Now that they have DoCoMo, CM, reliance, etc, they are going into a mop up operation.

That mop up is to make sure that no high income digitally connected person escapes :)


I still can't believe the Mac. 19% YoY unit volume growth, when the PC market is in decline!!! And that was with less than 1 month of sales of the new models.

That is simply amazing. They must have grown market share by 25% or so. In one year!!! In a mature market! In a market where they are twice more expensive than the competition!!!!

It is amazing.

Ooooops. Never mind. Tomi claims that Apple lost the PC wars. LOL


This just in:

Windows Phone is the #2 OS/Ecosystem in Latin America (in addition to Italy), ahead of iOS!!!

4.9% for Windows vs 4.3% for iOS in Latin AMerica. 17.1% for Windows, 12.8% for iOS in Italy.

That boycott must be running into high gear now, he?

There you go folks. Window Phone. Solid #3 overall but already #2 in a few important markets!!!

Meanwhile, the market share for Tizen, Linux, Meego, whatever is....well, there is nothing there. :)

Note how Tomi never mentions Kantar survey again? You know, the one that he thought was the best?


@vladkr & @John Fo right - spot on. History gives perspective.

@Baron-9-5 Agree mostly, but your "Silicon Valley superiority" doesn't explain Samsung's position. Besides, China & India are still up for grabs. In 5 years it could all be totally different again.

@LeeBase Now that Apple numbers are out, why don't you crawl back to your fanboy forum, you are out of your league

@nobody in general

I think it is obvious that Jolla delivered a buggy, unfinished and limited-quantity & availability & visibility product into the market with rudimentary support/dev interface. They are unlikely to survive for long.

Tizen's future, imho, will be decided by the Asian (Chinese) markets. It's highly political. See how the operators act. They don't want to become cash cows to Apple. They know the game by now (they've had years to watch the game being played in the OECD).

Europe and North America are already stalling in ASP, volumes and leaders. It's down to ME, Latinas and esp. Asia to show the way next.

The trouble is, we might get a nice big global dip in the interim, which may shake out a few players.


"Most iPhones sold ever."

Also, most WP phones sold ever. But it is Android that determines where the industry will go.

"The marquee prediction that WP will have more share than the combined alternatives (Tizen, Sailfish, Firefox OS, Ubuntu) is money in the bank"

If everyone else is dead, the one lying in coma wins.


I think Mac +19% is largely caused by Windows 8 failure. At least in my case although I have always used Windows (since Windows 3.0), Windows 8 was so bad that I am planning to change my old PC to Mac. I want to buy a PC to get a desktop UI with proper window system, not to use tablet -like UI on a desktop machine or some strange hybrid mixing desktop and tablet UI (a piece of advice to MS UI designers). In addition Mac doesn't feel so strange for consumers (like me) who have been using iOS on a tablet or smart phone. So the success in tablets and smart phones definitely helps Apple to grow PC business as well.


@PlatformWarrior You are a strange person.

I can only speak for my own peculiar behavior. I just bought a new Mac, while my last PC purchase was 3 years ago, a computer with Windows 7. My decision to buy a Mac was totally influenced by that Windows 7 PC, not by Windows 8.

Actually, I don't mind Windows 8. I've kept my mind supple to adapt to alternate user interfaces. It's the PC that I can't stand anymore.

I wanted to get a laptop with a beautiful user experience. My previous laptop is loud, bendy, slow, with poor screen, and integrates poorly with development tools. It has a discrete GPU, but even that has very poor performance. From what I could tell, the PC market is still saturated with this sort of cost optimization. Like the latest ThinkPad X1 Carbon, which can have a WQHD screen and an enhanced price tag to match, but it has the lowest performance graphics available for each CPU core. In contrast, the Retina MacBook Pros have the fastest GPUs that Intel produces.

But I think familiarity with iOS is a horrible reason to go for MacOS. It's a desktop operating system, not a tablet system, and the user experience is almost completely unlike the iPhone. It's also quite unlike Windows. You'll have to do a lot of adaptation to work with Mac.

I keep my mind supple, also using several distributions and desktops of Linux regularly. A lot of people would rather get Stardock Start8, and configure Windows 8.1 to boot straight to desktop. Ta-da! Something that looks almost exactly like Windows 7, but with better performance.


According to TrendForce, Nokia is out of top 10 for 2013q4, falling to Xiaomi and... guess who? Gionee

Tomi T Ahonen

To everyone in this thread

Thanks for the great comments. I was off on winter break and came back yesterday and started to read the comment threads with some replies. As this is already an older thread probably most of you are beyond caring but let me comment on one item that sparked lots of discussion.

The Samsung decline as reported was total handsets not smartphones. Samsung then added I think it was in the conference call a clarifying note that the smartphone sales were up sequentially from Q3. So those all discussing the already-happening Samsung collapse or peak Samsung or Apple's iPhone revenge etc are based on a misunderstanding. Samsung's total handset unit sales are down - including smart and dumbphones. Samsung's smartphone sales were up however.

Please also note separately that the sudden unexpected profit drop was a self-induced deliberate cost taken by the CEO to celebrate Samsung's awesome achievement by passing unscheduled bonuses to staff. That is a one-off cost that caused the profit decline. I fully expect Sammy to return to roughly 'normal' levels of profits in its handset unit in this current Q1 of 2014.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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