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« Its Now Official, Nokia Shareholders Approved the Deal | Main | So Previewing Smartphone Bloodbath Year 5: Who Is Still Left Alive »

November 20, 2013

Comments

Spawn

@E.Casais

> the discussion showed that Android cannot be construed as free

Wrong, it is even official:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_Open_Source_Project#Licensing

> It is quite surprising how fast HTC dropped. The firm was the darling up-and-coming smartphone vendor that had adopted the supposedly "right" recipe of betting on Android -- and is now fighting for survival.

http://blogs.ubc.ca/judychiang/2013/10/08/the-downfall-of-htc/

"Their portfolio was a mess and they wanted to make Android, Microsoft and Facebook phones. They should have concentrated on Android, instead of wasting their money on Windows and Facebook."

Winter

@Baron95
"Wow - 190,000 apps for a platform that is boycotted by all the operators and who no one wants and has no developers. Wow. Aliens are coming from Mars and publishing all those apps."

MS paid for the creation of every one of them. Just as every Lumia is sold at a loss.

It is very easy to buy friends and lovers. As long as you care to pay for them.

Winter

And here is another take which indicates how eager Instagram must have been to join the 200k strong WP ecosystem in addition to the 1M+ ecosystems of the iPhone and Android:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/11/20/instagram_windows_phone/

I wonder how long it will take before WP will run Android apps? On the other hand, that would be like the time OS/2 was able to run Windows applications. That did not work out very well for OS/2.

RottenApple

And if anyone is wondering why Windows Phone apps are often crippled compared to other versions?

Well, WP is a crippled platform. When it was designed Microsoft stripped out lots of the 'nice' stuff of regular Windows, because Windows RT was apparently too bloated to run on mobile phones. So not only can't you just write one app to target all of Windows, no, you often have to redo stuff because WP ist 'just' a tad different from its fully featured 'brother'.

I don't know how many times I wanted to pull out my hair in frustration because some stuff again got labeled 'not available on Windows Phone'.

So, WP may limp along for a few more years but don't forget that the main driving force behind WP sales is no longer present (that'd be the Nokia brand.) WP never was popular, but Nokia managed to pull through that barirer.

Having the most inane user interface ever created sure won't help either. I had some 'fun' familiarizing myself with Metro and my impression is that MSFT deliberately went out to implement stuff in the most unintuitive fashion imaginable. In my opinion it's just not mainstream compatible.

Winter

@RottenApple
Windows is a cash cow.

A short visit to the countryside will show you how cows are brought to give the maximum amount of milk. And that is not by making their lives wonderful.

AndThisWillBeToo

And the bullying Microsoft tactics continue. Through their smoke and mirrors techniques, bribing of app developers etc. they now face the worst of all of the operator boycott: carrier billing.

Operators have gone into such extremes in boycotting Windows Phone that WP Marketplace now supports carrier billing on twice the amount of operators compared to Android, the pet of operators and winner of ecosystem war.
(And also on more carriers than iPhone so LeeBase and Baron are happy)

I say it is essential to fire Elop so this merciless boycott ends. It knows no limits anymore.

AndThisWillBeToo

If true, this is ultimate proof that Android is the road to profits and victory:
http://www.androidbeat.com/2013/11/rumor-lg-put-smartphones-back-burner-instead-focus-television-sets/

RottenApple

@AndThisWillBeToo:

"Operators have gone into such extremes in boycotting Windows Phone that WP Marketplace now supports carrier billing on twice the amount of operators compared to Android, the pet of operators and winner of ecosystem war."

And now you may take a good guess why this is so. The carriers wouldn't do it if there wasn't some money for them to be had. Conclusion: Microsoft is again bribing the market to extend their reach. Google doesn't have to do this. If the carriers won't accept their demands they won't get the service.

Yes, Microsoft is truly a master at manipulation, they have ever been and they will never change.

As for a boycott, I rather think of it as exploiting Microsoft's weak position in the game. They do not have to block sales, they just have to see that business remains unprofitable for Microsoft. That'd do a lot more harm than an outright boycott.

WonTheLottery

@LeeBase
"Get ready to see world record making sales revenue and world record setting profits. More profits than Nokia ever produced at their height. More profits than Samsung ever will make."

Apple's share of mobile profits is 56% and falling, Samsung's is 53% and rising (the reason that adds up to more than 100% is because everyone else makes a loss). Maybe if Samsung were to use sub-contracted slave labour like Apple rather than investing billions of dollars in manufacturing plants in 'advanced economies' like the USA they could have overtaken even sooner.

@baron95
"Wow - 190,000 apps for a platform that is boycotted by all the operators and who no one wants and has no developers. Wow. Aliens are coming from Mars and publishing all those apps."

A huge number of apps are developed using cross-platform tools like Apache Cordova, OpenFL, Mosync, etc... The overwhelming majority of these apps will not have been developed for Windows Phone, they will have been developed for Android and simply signed for Windows Phone because it doesn't require any extra effort.

WonTheLottery

@N9
"I am still curious about your opinion about Blackberry. While sales of the new devices have been described as a complete desaster, at least according to statcounter (gs.statcounter.com) they seem to have stopped the erosion of their user base - even gaining a lot of users in the US"

Institutions like financial traders will only use BlackBerrys because they are the only device that can be controlled and secured remotely by an administrator. The phone can be made to log and record phonecalls, texts, etc.. to a remote server and there's nothing the user can do to override it. The trader will be issued a BlackBerry and it's the only device they'll be allowed to perform trades on apart from the lines in the institutions own premises.

I imagine Ubuntu Touch might get some of these heavyweight Enterprise tools built in but right now I think BlackBerry's the only game in town for those type of scenarios.

Apparently NSA/GCHQ had a specialist team working exclusively on BlackBerry because they were a much harder nut to crack than anything else they were snooping on.

WonTheLottery

@LeeBase
"cross OS apps don't run nearly as well as they do on their home OS."

Why would you assume that? Dalvik is just a virtual machine at the end of the day. Why would an alternative virtual machine exposing the same api inevitably be inferior?

What is the 'home OS' for apps created with Cordova, Reload, etc...?

Baron 95

@N9 So you are not impressed that in 2 years Microsoft i.e. reaching 200,000 apps. And it it is true that all the apps got payments from Microsoft, we can assume that those are the 200,000 highest quality apps, and I doubt Microsoft would pay for fart apps and the like.

So 200,000 quality apps in 2 years. Is that not impressive? Come on!!! No one, ever has done better. Not even Apple or Google or Palm or Symbian. No one. Is the absolute record in mobile apps.

With all the embargoes, boycotts, etc, etc. Selling 10M phones/quarter and averaging 10,000 new quality apps per month - that is a sensational.

Microsoft's OS may not catch on and fail - who knows - but boy they are playing for success. They are balls to the wall playing the big game. Need $7B to buy Nokia? No problem. Need $1B to seed developers? No problem. Need another $1B for marketing? No problem.

Back to Instagram - their statement is that they wanted to get the core/most_popular features of Instagram as fast as possible on Windows Phone and that they are not done, that they'll continue to improve it with fast iterations.

Now - you can lament the missing features or get excited that it is now 190,001 quality apps. That is up to you.

I have a feeling that Windows Phone is very close to achieving must have quality app parity with Android. Maybe another 2-4 quarters and no one will not-buy a Windows Phone for lack of a must have app.

Surface 2 seems to also be catching on as a niche tablet.

Windows 8 objections have virtually gone away.

Xbox One is about to launch.

Bing is a solid #2 in search.

I don't know - I see things moving the right way for Microsoft.

If you can't be Apple or Google, being Microsoft is not so bad, is it?

Baron 95

@AndThisWillBeToo "(And also on more carriers than iPhone so LeeBase and Baron are happy)"

Honest question - I don't know the answer. Does Apple support operator billing of iTunes/AppStore content anywhere?

Winter

@Boron95
"And it it is true that all the apps got payments from Microsoft, we can assume that those are the 200,000 highest quality apps, and I doubt Microsoft would pay for fart apps and the like."

You are funny!!!

Every one of the high profile apps shows the hallmarks of shoddy workmanship-for-hire. MS are desperate and will pay for anything.

zlutor

@Baron95: "Do those 200,000 app developers know something that Tomi doesn't?" - yes, creating cca. 198,713 crappy apps that nobody cares of.

Just like their bright colleagues who created 850k-epsilon useless apps for Android. And a little bit less for iOS...
Ooooh god, how fed up I am with using those app numbers as argument for a platform!?!?

I'm quite confident there are less than 1000 apps that really counts. And vast majority of them are available for all(most) all platforms...

Do you have idea how many apps are never-ever downloaded from app stores?
http://venturebeat.com/2013/08/26/700k-of-the-1-2m-apps-available-for-iphone-android-and-windows-are-zombies/
http://www.appbrain.com/stats/number-of-android-apps

"Windows Phone will be the fastest ecosystem ever to achieve 200,000 apps." - of course, they are the last one come to market. On the other hand Firefox OS and Sailfish might prove this theory wrong but anyway... :-)

And no, i do not think WP users spend so much more money on apps - the best selling device is L520, the cheapo variant, you know...

WonTheLottery

@baron95
"Selling 10M phones/quarter"
At a lower ASP and lower GM than Symbian phones were attaining 3 years ago.

@baron95
"we can assume that those are the 200,000 highest quality apps"
You might assume that because it suits your position, logically I would expect the majority of them to be apps created with cross-platform tools and so didn't require much porting. i.e. Most will be the HTML5 apps in a runtime type.

Microsoft will only have financed a few marquee apps like Annoying Birds.

Baron 95

@WInter

Blackberry was desperate and was also paying for anything.

Nokia was desperate and was also paying for anything pre 2011.

HP/Palm was desperate and also paying for anything.

Samsung was desperate and also paying for anything on Bada.

Yet Windows Phone has 10x the number of apps than those platforms ever had.

And they all died or are dying and Windows Phone is still shipping 10M devices per quarter.

Are you not capable to see the difference? Didn't I tell you in 2010 and 2011 that all this would happen and that in 2013 WP would be the #3 Ecosystem and all the other ones would crater?

It is so obvious and predictable. All you are doing is explaining why my predictions came true. Thanks.

Baron 95

@Leebase

Can you imagine running one of those Android Apps that sometimes lag on even the Galaxy S4 on the Jolla phone's implementation of Dalvik, with no Google location services, etc and that underpowered HW and low res screen?

Yet that is their strategy - they could not get any developers interested in doing native apps for "Meegofish" and switched horses to try to get some Android apps to run on that junk hw.

Good luck with that.

Meanwhile, even Google is moving to pre-compiled ART on Kit Kat and beyond.

Earendil Star

I see that the MS Astroturfing community is on a spree as usual on this blog.

Forget the boring baseless propaganda. Android and iOS dominate. WP is the last (P)OS, I would not even call it an ecosystem.

Being a negligible third in a three horse race, especially given the money being thrown at it, WP is so far a colossal failure.

But what really counts, is that this low single digit third position among three players was achieved resorting to criminal tactics, which ultimately led to the demise of Nokia. Not that regulators will intervene. Still, it is important to highlight and remember it.

Meanwhile, Android is now the most widespread OS in the world, greater than MS Windows. Cool achievement. For which, compliments should go to the legendary THTRH Flop. This goal could only be reached thanks to the sabotage of Nokia and its previous (real and own) ecosystem, which paved the way to the success of Sammy and Android. Dear THTRH Flop, a wholehearted "Thank You" from Korea!

Winter

@Boron95
"Blackberry was desperate and was also paying for anything.

Nokia was desperate and was also paying for anything pre 2011."

These did not have the billions to waste of MS. MS have saved all these billions of their shareholders to waste on a CEO hobby. BB did not have those billions to waste. Btw, Nokia did waste their billions for Windows Phone. All to lessen the losses of MS.

The comments to this entry are closed.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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