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« Its Now Official, Nokia Shareholders Approved the Deal | Main | So Previewing Smartphone Bloodbath Year 5: Who Is Still Left Alive »

November 20, 2013



my point was more that unlike suggested multiple times, in February 2011 B95 did not say that Nokia/MS would become #1 or #2. Given the order at the time, WP was in his opinion to reach #3 by 2013.
Tomi on the other hand repeatedly said WP will never bypass BB.


"Tomi on the other hand repeatedly said WP will never bypass BB"

We can argue about whether WP actually bypassed BB or that BB managed to fall through the bottom faster. But Tomi's fault seems to lie in his inabillity to predict the incredible incompetence that CEO's disclose after they have to actually show "leadership".



"As for "the usual" it was in response to Tomi's incessant "everything about Nokia is AWESOME". No matter what, he would only evaluate marketshare."

I repeat what I said before: If you want to discuss the user side of the market, profits are not directly relevant - unless, of course, lack of profits means a company goes down.

Thus, Apple may rake in as much money as they do - for the market it won't mean much.

"Have you folks been paying attention to Samsung lately? They are getting hammered over the disappointing sales of the GS4 and the pricing pressure from the Chinese. Called it years ago :) There are only 2 companies making decent money in mobile and one of them is going to be making a lot less."

Yeah, yeah. And it's mostly US bullshit. Everything is deadlocked at Apple (you are a prime example of this kind of tunnel vision) and even the slightest hint of a problem for the competition is blown out of proportion. A fool who falls for this. It's market manipulation at its very best.

And don't even think that Apple won't be affected by this pressure, too. If prices for high end Android devices go down, Apple will have to answer some serious questions about their pricing policies, too.

As for Google, I think Android has well paid off for them by now because they prevented Microsoft and Apple from monopolizing the mobile internet and that alone is worth all the investment they made.

"Everyone is waiting expectantly for what NEW things Apple will bring out this year. I think Apple will do just fine refining what it already has, but I too am expectant of new wonders."

Yes, indeed. Everybody in the US is expecting wonders from Apple. I can't wait for the moment when everyone realizes that there's no wonders coming.

Meanwhile Apple is steadily losing market share in most European markets.


@RottenApple, what's happening with Samsung is that they are going through what Apple did in 2013. Their stock rose too far too fast, and is getting hammered now. Apple's stock had been recovering nicely, but the past week was rough for them, too. 2014 is put up or shut up time for Tim Cook. He promised new products and product lines in 2014, so if he doesn't deliver there will be more pressure on him. That said, they have been down this road before. There are plenty of potential growth opportunities. A larger iPhone, a larger iPad, a TV, and a decent watch are just a few obvious ones.

I don't think they are worried too much about falling market share in Europe. Let's face it. Europe just isn't as important as it once was. That's not to say it won't be wealthy or that there aren't huge potential benefits from a North America/EU free trade zone, but the last 5 years showed that it's still the case that when the US gets a cold, Europe gets the flu, even if it's no longer true of China.

B aron 9 5

@Leebase - You have been way too sanguine about Samsung - not sure you can take credit on them facing problems.

I, on the other hand, firmly believe that Samsung margins will be squeezed, when the Chinese low cost Androids break out of China into advanced economies (from the bottom), and the larger screen iPhones hit the market (from the top).

I agree that Samsung is fully capable of some innovation, good marketing and economies of scale, to counter the squeeze, but they are likely in the most potentially vulnerable position in Mobile starting in around Q4/2014.

Apple, while seeing "some" margin squeeze, still have too many obvious simple cards to play, before they need to be brilliant. Simple cards like larger screen iPhone and iPad, iPad with keyboard, potentially running Mac OS, new Apple TV with game console capabilities, etc.

Microsoft too, I believe is poised to start making some serious money out of Mobile starting in Q1/2015. No, not with Lumia/Surface. But, the old fashion way with Office. Just think about it. Full MS Office for iPads, Android Tablets, even iPhones and Note 3, GS4 - class devices at say $4.99 for Phones and $6.99 for tablets, with an addressable market of 2B devices, and zero COGS. And that is just the consumer side. I bet Microsoft will add another $1-$2 per seat to their corporate annual contracts and give companies the rights to Mobile Office. We are talking serious money here.



"Let's face it. Europe just isn't as important as it once was."

Whatever. Again the typical US-centric bullshit. 'Yeah, that's one market we didn't do that well - but hey, it's not really important, is it?'

I call that ignorance, plain and simple. Better analyze the real reasons why Apple is not doing so well here instead of shrugging it off. They may teach some lessons about potentially developing problems elsewhere.

@Baron, regarding Office:

You are probably right - but this is something that really confuses me. Why does everybody use the most overpriced office product in the market? It's such a collossal waste of money that I simply can't comprehend the motivations behind it.


@RottenApple, you can be accused of typical Eurocentrism, as well. The way I see it, Apple does pretty well in the English speaking world (apart from India), and Japan. Perhaps its cultural. That's not to say there aren't lessons for the future. But Apple may well decide it's more worthwhile to try to use those lessons to get up to 10% market share in China rather than get back to its peak in Italy or Spain, for instance.

Again, your Eurocentrism makes you unable to see why the most "overpriced" office product in the market has such significant market share. Microsoft gained a dominant market share in the US over a long period of time, which given that most of the competition was also US-based made it easier to gain worldwide dominance. Part of it was that early versions of Office were actually pretty good. A bigger part was that Microsoft used their dominant position with Windows to build up Office. Other previous stalwarts such as Lotus 123, WordPerfect, and Harvard Graphics were slower to embrace Windows, and once they did arrive, Microsoft (allegedly) gave its Office team access to code and protocols to optimize Office in ways that the others couldn't. The antitrust action the US focused mostly on Windows, and the EU seemed fixated on Microsoft's supposed Windows Media Player "monopoly" (which, ironically, was "brought down" by Apple's iTunes more than any EU-mandated Windows N products). Neither went so far as to require any substantive remedies regarding Office. Given how slowly enterprise tends to move (it's just now that XP usage has fallen below 30%), they have been able to ride the inertia for the past 15 years.



"Apple does pretty well in the English speaking world (apart from India), and Japan."

Precisely! And that's because all the US-based pro-Apple propaganda mostly falls on deaf ears with people who do not use English in their daily lives. Apple still lost some considerable market share in the UK, though.

When I read US tech press it's Apple this and Apple that. Apple, Apple, Apple. As if nobody else existed. If any competitor gets mentioned it's mostly in a negative fashion. And that simply doesn't exist in this insane form in the non-English speaking world - thank god!

Regarding Office, some fun stuff: I haven't worked in a company using MS Office for more than 10 years now. Seems that tech people are far more likely to look for alternatives, even in management.

B aron 9 5

Claiming that Europe is not an important market is ridiculous. The three largest markets in the world are the USA, the EU and China. Period. Yes, the EU is not a single market - it is many individual sub markets. But so what California is as different from Mississippi, as Germany is from Greece, or Chinese Eastern mega cities are from the Chinese interior villages.

Still the EU is a huge and important market, so is the USA and so is China. Other important markets include Japan, Russia, Brazil, India, South Korea, and a couple of others.

But if your product does well in the US, EU and China, it will likely do well nearly everywhere you try. I don't think you can exclude any of the big-three.

The only brands that are doing well in all of the top-3 are Apple, Samsung, with Microsoft/Nokia a distant third, and ZTE Huawei, barely registering. Everything else is non existent in at least one of the big three.

Europe is doing reasonably well in automotive, aerospace, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, finance. It is not doing too well in mobile, SW, Internet, consumer electronics, energy exploration (though Shell and BP are powerhouses, they operate mostly outside the EU in exploration).

Despite my criticisms of continental Europe in failing to grasp the mobile evolution to mobile Internet computers, it is a ridiculous claim to say it don't matter much. It does.

Why is Apple not more successful in Germany, a high income western country? It is an excellent question. I think the answer is the same as to why Amazon is facing so many problems in Germany, including strikes and boycotts. I think that Germany is a country with a culture that favors local solutions, and Android, being tailored for local tastes plays better there than one size fits all, homogeneous Apple.

I think it is hugely important for Apple to figure out how to increase sales to Germany and some other EU countries. It would be a big mistake for Apple to write off Germany (I don't think they are).

fossils for sale

You could create an entire language arts curriculum around it. Goggles and gloves are essential for collecting fossils. Homemade solar panels, secondly, might have some technical limitation in skill as barrier.



The apps on Windows are just crap, no graphics, no sound quality. Windows has hired employees who are developing apps or the big companies like EA Sports are launching the apps for microsoft windows because they can afford to hire.

You would hardly find popular apps on Android or iOS on windows. The count does not signify the quality of the app store. Apple store is popular because each app has to pass the predefined test set by Apple unlike android or Windows.

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