Bloodbath Year Four, Smartphones Galore - Q3 Results, all market shares

So we now have the numbers about as good as we can hope to get. All four major analyst houses have given their counts of the total market size, and all 4 agree we've passed the quarter billion sales level per quarter this quarter, so yes, the average we are working from is 254.3 million new smartphones sold worldwide in Q3 of 2013 and this year is very well on track to pass 1 Billion total new smartphones sold. The global migratoin rate is 55% and the global smartphone average price in Q3 according to IDC was 317 US dollars. So its now a 300 Billion industry by annual revenues in 2013, not total handsets, just the smartphones part.. Bigger than Hollywood, bigger than Gaming, bigger than Music, bigger than Radio. In fact bigger than all four of those, combined. About the size of the global PC industry by revenues (far more by annual unit sales obviously). Nice biz eh? Lets do some numbers!

BIGGEST SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS BY UNIT SALES IN Q3 2013

Rank . . Manufacturer . Units . . . Market Share . Was Q2 2013 . . OS systems supported (coming)[ending]
1 (1) . . Samsung . . . . 84.1 M . . 33.1% . . . . . . . ( 31.9% ) . . . . . . Android, bada, Windows (Tizen)
2 (2) . . Apple  . . . . . .  33.8 M . . 13.3% . . . . . . . ( 13.4% ) . . . . . . iOS
3 (5) . . Huawei  . . . . .  13.4 M . . . 5.3% . . . . . . . (   4.9% ) . . . . . . Android (Tizen)
4 (4) . . Lenovo  . . . . .  12.3 M . . . 4.8% . . . . . . . (   4.9% ) . . . . . . Android (Tizen)
5 (3) . . LG  . . . . . . . .  12.0 M . . . 4.7% . . . . . . . (   5.2% ) . . . . . . Android
6 (6) . . ZTE  . . . . . . . . 11.6 M . . . 4.5% . . . . . . . (   4.6% ) . . . . . . Android, Windows (Firefox)
7 (7) . . Sony . . . . . . . .10.3 M . . . 4.0% . . . . . . . (   3.8% ) . . . . . . Android
8 (8) . . Coolpad/Yulong . 9.1 M . . . 3.6% . . . . . . . (   3.6% ) . . . . . . Android
9 (9) . . Nokia . . . . . . . .  8.8 M . . . 3.5% . . . . . . . (   3.2% ) . . . . . . Windows, [Symbian]
10 (10) . HTC . . . . . . . .  6.3 M . . . 2.5% . . . . . . . (   3.1% ) . . . . . . Android, Windows
Others . . . . . . . . . . . .  52.6 M
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . .  254.3 M
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis 15 Nov 2013, based on manufacturer and industry data
This table may be freely shared

Yes, this quarter it happened. Yet another death in the Bloodbath of smartphones. We've seen past giants like Palm, Motorola, Ericsson die and now goes the biggest. Nokia the inventor of the smartphone who at the start of our Bloodbath series towered over all rivals, will be sold to Microsoft. There the Nokia/Lumia unit will live for some years, struggling to find business, until some day Microsoft decides its too expensive to fight for a tiny slice when they see Windows Phone can never become something like say Xbox, and will pull the plug. Nokia/Lumia at Microsoft will go the way of the Zune, the way of the Kin. But yes. Another death in the Bloodbath. 

Meanwhile on the charts? Nothing much new really to report. There is that dogfight for third place, jostling between Huawei, Lenovo, ZTE and LG. Sony was in that fight but seems to have fallen a bit behind. Coolpad ie Yulong was no flash in the pan, it is solidifying its 8th ranking. Blackberry is still solidly out of the Top 10. Sammy rules on the top = all hail Samsung the king. And as I wrote separately already, we've now seen 'peak iPhone' in smartphone market share. Apple is very unlikely to achieve annual level growth in its smartphone market share this year, 2013, for the first time ever. That is why they launched the parallel discount models in bright colors, the iPhone 5C. But those are still priced too high to save Apple's growth trend in market share. Yes, Apple will obviously produce another record Christmas Quarter but growing only in units (and yes, revenues and profits) but its market share is now in decline. Unless they lower the 5C model range prices, that decline will continue..

BIGGEST SMARTPHONE OPERATING SYSTEMS BY UNIT SALES IN Q3 2013

Rank . OS Platform . . . . Units . . . . Market share . Was Q2 2013 . . Manufacturers in Top 10
1 (1) . . Android . . . . . . . 204.3 M . .  80.3 % . . . . . ( 79.0 %) . . . . . Samsung, LG Huawei, ZTE, Lenovo, Sony, Yulong/Coolpad, HTC
2 (2) . . iOS  . . . . . . . . . . 33.8 M . .  13.3 % . . . . . ( 13.4 %)  . . . . . Apple
3 (3) . . Windows Phone . . 9.3 M . . .  3.6 % . . . . . (  3.9 %) . . . . . . Samsung, Nokia
4 (4) . . Blackberry . . . . . . 5.9 M . . .  2.3 % . . . . . (  2.9 %) . . . . . . (None)
others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 M . . .  0.4 % . . . . . (   0.6 %)
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . .  253.4 M
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis 15 Nov 2013, based on manufacturer and industry data
This table may be freely shared

This race is over. Android has now passed 80% of new sales and the only meaningful rival is iOS at 13%. Yes, Windows Phone is now 'the third ecosystem' by new sales (not anywhere near that by installed base) but at 4% market share that is a hollow victory indeed. At least Blackberry is so troubled, it is no rival and Samsung's Tizen keeps teasing us but still nothing to see. Hey, Sailfish gets its sales now before Christmas as Jolla starts its entry into the smartphone wars. First Jolla smartphones will be selling at least in Finland, hopefully also very soon in China..


INSTALLED BASE OF SMARTPHONES BY OPERATING SYSTEM AS OF 30 JUNE 2013

Rank . OS Platform . . . . Units . . . Market share  Was Q2 2013  . Main Manufacturers of current base
1 . . . . Android . . . . . . . 959 M . . . 64 % . . . . . . ( 58 %) . . . . . . Samsung, Huawei, Sony, ZTE, LG, Lenovo, SonyEricsson, Coolpad 
2 . . . . iOS  . . . . . . . . . 308 M . . . 20 % . . . . . . ( 20 %) . . . . . . Apple
3 . . . . Symbian . . . . . .   97 M . . .  6 % . . . . . . (   8 %) . . . . . . Nokia, Sharp, Panasonic, Fujitsu
4 . . . . Blackberry  . . . . .  62 M . . . 4 % . . . . . . (   5 %) . . . . . . RIM
5 . . . . Windows Phone . . 40 M . . . 3% . . . . . . . (   2 %) . . . . . . Nokia, Samsung, HTC
6 . . . . bada . . . . . . . . . . 20 M . . .  1 % . . . . . . (   2 %) . . . . . . Samsung
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 M . . .  1 % . . . . . . (   1 %)
TOTAL Installed Base . 1,504 M smartphones in use at end of Q3, 2013
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis 15 Nov 2013, based on manufacturer and industry data
This table may be freely shared

So congrats Android. When you add tablets, Android active user base is over one billion already. By end of the year we will have more than 1 Billion smartphone users alone on Android, and globally, more Android users than all forms of Windows, including desktops, laptops, netbooks, tablets and smartphones... wow. I did tell you last year, that Android has won the war, but still, who would have thunk it. In our lifetimes we were to see the king Microsoft toppled. Well, if Nokia could die the Microsoft death, why not Microsoft itself?

Thats your market picture now at the end of Q3 of 2013.

Comments

[winter]

Tomi,
The Total number in the second table "BIGGEST SMARTPHONE OPERATING SYSTEMS BY UNIT SALES IN Q3 2013" is wrong. It is the total of 2Q2013 (232.7). It should be 254.3

[winter]

"Well, if Nokia could die the Microsoft death, why not Microsoft itself?"

I think our fearful leader Elop is perfectly capable of such a feat.

[daz]

Inconsistency: "Was Q1 2013" should probably be "Was Q2 2013" according to numbers.
And HTC was (10) not (11) in Q2, right?

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Thanks winter and daz, will correct those.. :-)

Tomi :-)

[Kevin]

Something is wrong here, Huawei produces Windows phone as well, please correct it.

[E.Casais]

In the very first table, bada shoul between square brackets [bada], because Samsung phased out this OS early this year.

In my opinion, the table of market share by manufacturer is the most remarkable of all (8 out of 10 come from Asia, and this share has been continuously growing over the past years), and the one about OS installed base the most relevant, since it takes into account the hysteresis of market shifts.

[daz]

Agree on [bada]

[NokiaLove]

Wow! I thought WP was not allowed to pass BB like... ever.
http://dominiescommunicate.wordpress.com/2013/11/15/the-bet-between-wp-and-bb-seems-like-done/

[RottenApple]

@Baron95:

"Nokia, instead of dropping out of the top 10, as was predicted by the blog's owner, is now only 1.2M units/quarter away from being in the top 5. Can it do it? I'm not sure. Those Chinese OEMs are pumping a ton of low cost Androids. But it is an interesting race to watch. Nokia vs no-name Chinese Androids. Place your bets."

That's just an impressive achievement to interpret these dismal numbers in a positive manner.

As for 'will they enter Top 5', that can clearly be answered with 'no' since they won't exist any longer. In any case, I don't see it - just because Microsoft won't manage to build upon Nokia's brand recognition.

Europeans hate Microsoft products. They bought Nokia because of its past reputation. MS doesn't have that, so once they need to rebrand - game over!

[AndThisWillBeToo]

Nokia closed its last Symbian product line in June. How did they ship Symbian phones in this quarter?

And yes, [Bada]. Samsung Osborned it late 2012 when they told it will be replaced by Tizen with no way to upgrade (and no Tizen phones available for another year.)

Only reason we see those two here is the author of this blog. Every brand that has even remotely mentioned in same context as Tizen is now a Tizen partner whereas likes of Huawei, HTC and ZTE need not to be mentioned after Windows Phone.
It same as Tomi insisting that Telefonica is in the Tizen board even though they left a long time ago and recently told how pleased they are to offer carrier billing for their Windows Phone customers in cooperation with Microsoft.

But we don't get to read news like that in this blog.

[Gonzalo]

Tomi, When will you give us more accurate comparison between apple and samsung ? Can you compare Iphone 5s to Galaxy s4 in markets where they are properly used. (on line shopping etc)

Also it would be good to measure io7 vs kit kat as they both are just released.

Comparing Ford Fiesta with Audi 7, umm not a good yard stick. Take Japan, Germany, USA, UK etc to measure 5s and s4

[KPOM]

Bada fizzled and Tizen is going nowhere, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Samsung fork Android, particularly since Google looks to be reasserting control over proper Android through Motorola and the Nexus lines. It would also be interesting to see the breakout by version of Android. Anything running Android 2.3 or below these days should be considered a featurephone. It certainly isn't in the same class as a Galaxy S4, HTC One, or even Moto X, and probably isn't being used in the same manner.

[Jone]

Given the complete dominance of Android it would be interesting to see which ecosystem these devices are part of. I guess Google is the dominat player, but surly other players exist like Amazon and I guess Chinese users don't use Google?
I think Ecosystems are more interesting than the underlying OS.
Is this possible to dig up?

[Werty]

So, "the most accurate forecaster" manages to tell us that ZTE makes Windows Phones. And that Huawei doesn't. And that Samsung makes Bada-phones. Wow.

On the other hand, the same forecaster did tell us in the beginning of the year that Blackberry would be the third most sold OS with about 4-6% market share this year and that Tizen would have 2% market share in sold devices in Q4/13.

[E.Casais]

"Anything running Android 2.3 or below these days should be considered a featurephone."

Meaningless without a clear-cut, rigorous definition of what is a feature phone, a smartphone, a superphone, a dumbphone, etc.

"It certainly isn't in the same class as a Galaxy S4, HTC One, or even Moto X,"

High-end vs. low-end within a device type (i.e. smartphone) is not identical with different device types (i.e. smart vs. feature).

"and probably isn't being used in the same manner."

We already went through this discussion in this blog. We do not know. We just do not know. We do not have the necessary statistics.

"it would be nice to start seeing total mobile market numbers."

Yup.

Actually, it never made sense to me to differentiate between "feature" and "smart" phones -- the definition of a smartphone is so amorphous that it is more relevant to distinguish between low-end, mid-range and high-end devices -- whatever their input type, application run-time or OS.

[Ben]

*GASP*
Apple is losing market share.

They should totally hire Steve Ballmer to right the ship. Heck, if Microsoft could get 1 out of 10 Symbian users to switch to Windows Phone they could probably get 1 out of 30 Apple users to switch. However, getting anyone to use Windows Phone is such a feat that the board would have to promise him untold millions for that accomplishment.

[RottenApple]

@Baron95:

"Really? Last time I checked, Windows was the #1 Desktop OS in Europe. "

Last time I checked Microsoft has a quasi-monopoly on desktop OSs.
There's a vast difference between buying something because it's good and buying something because there's no viable alternative.

@KPOM: Hey, don't insult my trusty old HTC desire by declaring it a feature phone.

[KPOM]

@E-cassais and @rottenapple, I don't mean to imply that a phone purchased in 2010 or 2011 running Android 2.3 is a "featurephone." However, one purchased in late 2013 likely is being sold to the same type of person who purchased an S40 or similar low-end device in 2010 or 2011.

We don't have lots of market data but the iPad mobile usage statistics Apple cites is useful. Even though Apple is now down to about 30% of the tablet market, they still dominate the web usage statistics. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar outsized "mobile usage share" for the iPhone.

Last quarter, Samsung finally revealed that it sold about 100 million Galaxy S and Note phones over the past year. Over the same period, Apple sold about 150 million iPhones. Since Apple and Samsung are the only companies making appreciable money on mobile hardware right now, that lines up pretty nicely with their respective profit shares.

@Baron, can Samsung do a "de facto" fork by adding more and more of their own APIs? Does 64-bit give them an opportunity to do more of that? If Google needs to keep writing Android to the lowest common denominator, would Samsung be able to write their own APIs to take advantage of their upcoming processor designs?

I'm sure Samsung isn't too happy with Google right now. They are potentially undermining the Galaxy S/Note business model by selling phones and tablets such as the Nexus 5 and 7 at much lower prices than Samsung. Google couldn't care less whether any OEM makes any money (much the same way Microsoft was with Windows in the 1990s and 2000s). Plus, if Google isn't ready with a 64-bit version of Android in time for the Galaxy S5 launch it puts them in a bad position.

[MH]

If the stats are to be relied on (and I'm not hallucinating) only 0.1% market share is held by non-Nokia Windows Phones. So while other companies may make them, it looks like only Nokia is selling them.

Unlike the tablet debacle it does make sense (to MS) for Microsoft to just buy Nokia because their "partners" aren't contributing to the platform and neither will they be hurt very much to drop from 0.1% to 0.0% market share.

On the "what people feel about Microsoft" topic I think the feeling is similar to what people feel about government. They resent paying tax and view politicians as a bunch of self-important thieves, but that doesn't stop them using the roads and the health service etc. and no-one has come up with a better idea yet.

[E.Casais]

@KPOM

"However, one purchased in late 2013 likely is being sold to the same type of person who purchased an S40 or similar low-end device in 2010 or 2011."

Methodologically, this is very dubious. Devices must be classified according to their capabilities, not how/whether those capabilities are used. This latter aspect serves to classify end-users, not devices.

To recap: you can have people using "smartphones" as "feature phones", but this is a classification of people, not of devices themselves (whatever "smart" and "feature" mean), and it has nothing to do whether the OS is recent or not. After all, somebody may be using a brand new Android 4.4 gadget just for calls and SMS -- you see the methodological quagmire you end up with.

"We don't have lots of market data but the iPad mobile usage statistics Apple cites is useful."

It is interesting, but if there are two device classes whose usage patterns differ a lot, it is phones and tablets (practically no voice calls, vast majority of tablets used as WLAN-only devices without SIM, lots of long sessions of media consumption vs. lots of communication, etc).

We really need detailed statistics on the topic. Let us hope that Tomi can come up with some insights.