My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« Ballmer Aftermath Part 2 - Impact to Nokia, especially Lumia running Windows Phone | Main | Why is Everybody Obsessing About Mobile Now? From Starbucks to Tesco, from Visa to Budweiser Beer »

August 27, 2013

Comments

Werty

@tired

"http://futures.tradingcharts.com/news/futures/DJ_MARKET_TALK__Nokia_Cash_Position_Worse_Than_It_Appears_Bernstein_202817689.html

Wow.. that was fast..."

Bernstein also estimates that Nokia will sell ~18 million Lumia smartphones this year.
Considering that H1/13 resulted in 13 million sold Lumias, the second half has to be quite bad. Around 2,5 million Lumias per quarter. Not the most likeliest scenario now is it?

Honestly, Bernstein and especially their "analyst" Pierre Ferragu has to be the worst analyst ever. Don't believe me? Just look at his track record for eg. Blackberry. Pierre is so bad it's actually quite funny and especially entertaining.

Tester

@Werty:

18 million Lumias almost looks like a typo. I'd think they meant 28 million which would sound more realistic.

zlutor

"Bernstein also estimates that Nokia will sell ~18 million Lumia smartphones this year." - most probably not valid estimation...

Nokia has sold 7+ mio in Q2, they expecting some continuous growth in the coming quarters (according to press releases)...
So, it should be ~30mio for 2013.

Expect they come up with some Android model in Q4... :-)

Anyway the rumored Asha502/503 are more interesting to me. That will be the bread and butter for Nokia here and there...

zlutor

I meant 'except', not 'expect'! Oooh, good, old, Fraud... :-)

Robert Atkins

Bill Gates must chuckle when he sees Elop's name listed as possible successor to Monkey Man.

Werty

@Tester

"18 million Lumias almost looks like a typo. I'd think they meant 28 million which would sound more realistic."

Nope, not a typo.
Bernstein cut Lumia 2013 sales estimate to 18.3 million units in the beginning of March. Their rating for the stock was "underperform" (still is) and price target was 1.2 € (currently 1.5 €). Check for yourself if you don't believe me.

Steve Jobs from beyond the grave

Arg Damnit it Tomi it's your fault that they discovered the Apple plot to burst M$ and Nokia. Because you see it was us who planted Elop in Nokia and Ballmer in charge of M$. BTW sarcasm may occur but the truth is that M$ has no plan of giving up in the fight for mobile domination.

cursedcompany_employee_with_a_blink_of_hope

"Stephen Elop has 5-to-1 odds to be hired as Steve Ballmer’s replacement, as per gambling operator Ladbrokes "


If this is really an option it shows that from an MS (or Gates) point of view he did the right thing. He has to be seen succesful in some point.

You can not take the worst manager in the history of capitalism to lead your stumbling company if he did not succed in another agenda.

That would pretty much prove that the destroying of the free OS (from outside of the US) was the main point to install Elop and other things (3rd ecosystem BS talk) would just have been a nice secondary.

And it is the only thing he "succeded" in.


I do not buy it but I would pay that he leaves NOKIA.


AndThisWillBeToo

@Werty
> Check for yourself if you don't believe me.

Thanks, I checked. The 18.3M is forecast of Lumia 920 (one single high end model) sales for full year 2013. So it is actually most likely too high but tells nothing of Nokia total volumes as Nokia sells 5-, 6-, 7- and 8-series too.

zlutor

@AndThisWillBeToo : "The 18.3M is forecast of Lumia 920" - I think it is too high...

It is told the vast majority of Lumia sells is L520, total Lumia sales for 2013 ~30mio, so...

Tomi T Ahonen

About Nokia Lumia estimates 2013..

Now that the Symbian transition phase is over and the Lumia 'bottom' has been hit, more-or-less, assuming no disaster news between now and end of year (such as terminating Windows Phone by either party or Nokia announging a parallel OS), we should see Lumia sales end the year in the 30M - 35M range, giving Nokia between 3% and 3.5% market share for the year. That assumes a strong Christmas Quarter for Nokia in parallel with the industry's seasonal sales pattern. A bad model release by Nokia, or hot model by rivals, or any negative announcements about Lumia/Windows Phone end, would depress those levels.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

nexus lumia

@tomi t ahonen

$200 nexus 4.
google just lower the price of nexus 4.

foo

> Stephen Elop has 5-to-1 odds to be hired as Steve Ballmer’s replacement,
> as per gambling operator Ladbrokes

I'm flabbergasted that so many people still believe that Elop was a good, or even reasonable CEO.

From the burning platform memo forward he made a series of dumb (or criminal) decisions that destroyed Nokia's future.

I hope Tomi will compile all his articles about Elop and release a book that will put the things in the right place.

I'm sure this book will become a best-seller in the business schools, since it showcases what a good CEO shouldn't do in several occasions: he shouldn't criticize his own products; he shouldn't pre-announce the death of his cash cow before he has a new one; he shouldn't make a strategic decision without a contigency plan; he shouldn't give strategic control of a core product to another company; and so on.

The title of the book? "Elop Effect, or how a delusional CEO destroyed one of the most admired companies in the world".

AndThisWillBeToo

@CN
It seems that I misread it: they use sales of 920 as basis for their 18M forecast but imply it's total Nokia sales.
We both better get a bookmark from Bernstein so we have link to hand out when Tomi says nobody expected as poor Lumia sales as he did. ;)

winter

Why is Elop so popular?

When asked,the Russians wanted to vote Stalin the "best" Russian of all times. Either Louis XIV or Napoleon is the "best" French leader in popular French believe. Both have killed more French than anyone else.

It seems that to become popular as a leader, you have to cause destruction on unprecidented scales.

Elop does fill that position in the world of business.

logic001

Nokia really needs to consider Sailfish. Yes of course its high risk and may only work as a secondary OS however I feel this needs to be supported where possible. Okay we all know mobile is the future. Within a couple of years it(actually most are already now) will be in our phones, communication devices, TVs, Cars, Transport, Robotics and healthcare, embedded in households. Therefore its easy to conclude that Computers / Mobile will be a major and increasing part of our daily life. Given such I feel it is highly dangerous that all the key OS are American controlled. Their influence on our daily lives will become just too great to allow one country have a monopoly on such. I therefore feel it is essential that at least one European OS is developed.

Simon

@logic001: "Nokia really needs to consider Sailfish"

I would be really surprised if the payments (both past and future) from Microsoft were not dependent on Nokia exclusively using Windows Phone on any smartphones that it sells.

zlutor

@logic001: "I therefore feel it is essential that at least one European OS is developed." - there was an initiative for that some years ago (based on Symbian).

http://pulse2.com/2010/11/02/symbian-receives-e22-million-from-initiative-sponsored-by-european-commission/

An yes, I also think there should be something out of the (direct) reach of USA government. They have proved they use all of their possibilities to track anything and everything...

In ideal case that mobile OS should be (fully) open source - that is not the case with Sailfish at the moment (part of UI code is closed) but they are planning to open it up...

Winter

@zlutor
"In ideal case that mobile OS should be (fully) open source"

What exactly is wrong with Android?

http://www.cyanogenmod.org/

zlutor

@Winter: "I also think there should be something out of the (direct) reach of USA government."

And I prefer OSs developed by Finish companies... :-)

Otherwise, nothing... :-)

The comments to this entry are closed.

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati