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« Why Do I (still) Think Nokia Will Be Sold (soon)? - This article explains it | Main | Future trends in mobile »

May 02, 2013

Comments

SMP

7" and 8" Windows 8 tablets will be even bigger failures than their 10" tablets.

The 10" tablets were a failure because Windows applications won't work on them properly because they don't support touch, and Metro (modern) apps don't work on them because there aren't any Metro apps. Therefore there is no point whatsoever in buying 10" Windows tablets over a laptop. 7" and 8" will be even more useless, because it is even more difficult to run Windows on a small 7" or 8" tablet than a 10" tablet (even worse for accurate pointing, viewing and selection, and even less space for a virtual keyboard).

If you are selling a 7" or 8" tablet which is designed not to run Windows comfortably but instead to only run touch applications, why would anyone pick Windows 8 over Android or iPad which have almost a million touch applications each. 7" and 8" Windows tablets will be even more disastrous than 10" Windows tablets.

disciple1991

Are these numbers worldwide or just North America?

chithanh

It seems that the "New Coke" meme is gaining more mainstream acceptance.

ZDNet has published an article where they sneer over the failure that are Windows 8 and RT on touchscreen devices, the latter registering 0.00 percent(sic!) market share according to Net Applications.
http://www.zdnet.com/windows-8-microsofts-new-coke-moment-7000014779/

KPOM

Apple isn't driven by market share. The iPod was the only product that ever maintained a majority of market share during its lifetime, and it was a relative flash-in-the-pan. If all they cared about was market share, they'd release a 5" phone, a $149 tablet, and some $399 Macs. People don't harp on BMW because it has a small market share. The fact of the matter is that it has 40% of the market and sells devices ranging from $329-$829. And the Street complains that the $329 Mini is hurting its profits, so they really can't go much lower. As for Google, they seem to be running into the anti-trust police in the EU, so it will be interesting to see what happens there. Microsoft hasn't been the same since its antitrust settlement.

AndThisWillBeToo

And today in shareholders meeting board members were asked what phones they use. Result was row of Samsungs and iPhones, with one Lumia - that of Elop.

Jessica Wallen

Goddamn MIcroshaft fucked Nokia (and Finland) so hard in the ass that the finns must be crying right now!
What do I mean by that obvious statement? Well if you hate some darn desktop OS then you probably wont bother buying the OS on a smart phone :-(

Stevan Gvozdenović

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/07/us-nokia-agm-idUSBRE9460LV20130507

Spawn

@Stevan

Elop: "Our competitor Android"

No outcry? Nobody pointing out the mistake here? Morons.

Elop 2011: "The game has changed from a battle of devices to a war of ecosystems"

Pffff... Still beyond me how he passed with that all this years.

Louis

"Apple can make the biggest profits, yes, but it cannot hold the market share, it is destined to become a niche player over time"

Curiously, the top 5 numbers here add up to less than 70%, so "something else" is more popular than anything except for Apple. Why isn't it obvious to tech analysts that Samsung is a niche player right now, and having its mid-range and low-end market stolen before it even gets started? iPad-like devices seem to exist in a market much more like PCs and less like phones.

KPOM

@Louis, the market seems to like Samsung for whatever reason, perhaps because it's an "anti-Apple" who throws dozens of devices at the wall in every size and price point to see what sticks. That said, Apple and Samsung still control 100% of the profit share, though now the split is 57/43 Apple while it was 72/28 the previous quarter. What it tells me is that "Android" itself isn't particularly profitable for anyone other than Google and Samsung. Increasingly, Samsung will want more control over the software, so I wouldn't be surprised if Samsung starts porting over its Android customizations to Tizen.

Louis

@KPOM: Samsung's strategy, in more positive light, is basically trying to give people and carriers what they want in any given price point, and then marketing the crap out of it. For phones, because of carriers, this appears to do great. In particular, there is a case to be made that Apple may be running out of addressable market. Samsung is the kind of default non-Apple device with an actual brand.

On the other hand, PCs are kind of a different story, where the only price points/brands that matter are "$1000/MacBook Air" and "the cheapest thing/whatever". Everybody is out of addressable market, and Apple at least has a profitable part.

The popularity of "random tablet that market share researchers don't bother to name" should make all the non-Apple contenders unhappy.

banyantree

Already there are case studies of Nokia's failure.

http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2013/05/08/corporate-change-nokia

chithanh

@Louis

Allwinner just announced that they sold more CPUs than Intel and Qualcomm combined. Given that Allwinner SoCs (along with AMLogic and RockChip) are used in low-priced Chinese devices, this nicely explains where the other 30% are.

http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-blogs/other/4413656/London-Calling-Did-Allwinner-outsell-Intel-Qualcomm

RottenApple

Ugh..

Some long winded stuff talking about the current market and completely ignoring potential future developments.

Once Apple becomes a niche player which no longer drives sales, things may change very, very quickly.

Yes, right now iOS provides more revenue for developers but this particular thing is not guaranteed. Android has risen quickly and it may just be a matter of time to make the balance change.

And here's the fun stuff about Mac sales: What do you think, makes the Mac survive? Certainly not its use as a standard issue PC. No, the only reason is that every iOS developer needs one to work! I'm forced to have one, just to deploy my iOS apps which I develop with a cross platform tool on the PC. Aside from that it's a total waste of money and doesn't see much use. And you can be sure that there's many of these out there!

Apple has built a great system to enslave and exploit its users. Such setups are by definition not stable. Once one of its pillars breaks away the whole system may crumble.

As you yourself said, Apple almost went out of business once before and the only thing that saved it was Steve Jobs. But he's no longer there so the next time Apple develops problems there may be nobody able to save it.

Louis

@RottenApple: "No, the only reason is that every iOS developer needs one to work!"

You are kidding, right? There are not 18M people writing iOS Apps.

http://techcrunch.com/2012/10/25/apple-hardware-sales-in-fy-2012-125-04m-iphones-58-23m-ipads-18-1m-macs-and-35-2m-ipods/

There are less than a million total apps in the app store.

Anyway, like I said, the real market share is, roughly,

Apple: 40%
No-name: 30%
Branded Android: 25%
Amazon: 4%
Microsoft: 1%

So, basically, if Apple did the tanking to niche status, branded Android died before it was ever born. What are its advantages over no-name? Why would anybody pay a premium for it? Amazon actually has a growth story, but the PC makers and non-Apple smartphone makers not so much.

Huber

@leebase: >>If Androids current overwhelming dominance in market position doesn't make it THE place for app development now...what's going to change that in the future?

Two links as answer:

http://techcrunch.com/2013/03/04/abi-with-58-market-share-android-will-top-ios-in-smartphone-app-downloads-this-year-but-apple-will-win-on-tablets/

With 58% Market Share, Android Will Top iOS In Smartphone App Downloads This Year, But Apple Will Win On Tablets

http://www.trademob.com/ios-versus-android-the-app-arms-race-infographic/

While iOS pays out four times as much revenue to app marketers than Android, app revenue growth is growing five times more rapidly on Android. But will it stay this way so that Android can catch up and even overtake iOS? This remains to be seen, as we watch the battle of the platforms progress.

>> Quote end

So we see that Android already grows faster regarding App downloads. Apple of course had a huge head start, and from this the company still profits. But as time progresses, this advantage will vanish.

It is only a matter of time.

I still know some people who instist that on iOS you can get the better and more up-to-date Apps. WHen I then say 'OK, show me these killer Apps', they show me some Apps which do the same as thousands of other Apps. I haven't seen one App from these guys which does something you cannot do on Android.

The days of Apple's App superiority are already over, only people falling for Apples's RDF see it differently.

Tester

@Huber:

Precisely that. iOS is a relatively stable market right now. It has reached a certain level but isn't significantly growing anymore.

Android, on the other hand still hasn't reached the top and is getting increasingly important for app developers. The 'iOS first and Android a distant second' attitude was ok one or two years ago but it can't already be afforded anymore due to Android's growth.

And with current Android flagship devices running circles around the iPhone 5 I don't see this development stop. For a long time Apple has been the unquestioned leader in mobile technology but let's be honest: Right now their latest offering can't compete with all those recent full HD Androids.

Apple's biggest advantage is still the US press which seem to be deadlocked on the company as the sole technological leader. It's unbelievable how much nonsense gets written there. Here in Europe this stuff is virtually non-existent. And guess what: Apple's market share is considerably lower here.

Concerning tablets, we see the same development as with mobile phones right now, just at an earlier stage. Apple had a significant head start just like with phones but it's slowly but steadily eroding. It will probably go the same route, especially if Android tablets get cheaper.

Louis

@lee: "If Androids current overwhelming dominance in market position doesn't make it THE place for app development now...what's going to change that in the future?"

I will try to give a serious answer, since nobody else has. What would happen is that new approach to monetizing Android users is discovered. It might come from new products (e.g., sticker packs in messaging apps), better optimization for getting in front of the right kind of user, higher ad rates, or splitting a revenue stream with a carrier. I am sure all of these are being looked at.

Huber

@leebase:

Please enlighten me: Which Apps are iOS-only and don't have an Android equivalent?

I'm writing this text on an Asus TF700T. I have lots of Apps installed, but only a few don't scale up correctly.

These few Apps I need only occasionaly to perform some tasks like saving bookmarks, so it's no big deal.

So, which Apps don't scale correctly?

Tester

@leebase:

I never said that the app situation for tablets on Android is perfect. After all that market segment still *IS* a few years behind phones. At least most of those phone apps DO scale up properly.

>> And that's for PHONES where Android has 3 times the market share.

What part of 'Android app revenue growth is much higher than iOS' is not clear? The market is changing and in a year today's values are meaningless.

So please leave your pro-Apple FUD at the door.

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